Comparative Analysis on Transition Trap and Middle Income Trap in Current ＇ Economic Development

China now is in the vital stage of the economic transition,which is facing the severe challenge of spanning the middle- income trap.Only the clear recognization of current domestic and overseas situations,the vigorous implementation of self- dependent innovation,and the energetic exploitation of international market will contribute to the fundamental industrial restructuring and the early achievement of marching into high- income countries.

The ＂Middle Income Trap＂ in Economic Growth in Different Economies

Nowadays,more than 50%of the world population live in middle-income economies.Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges,such as economic restructuring,industrial upgrade and income growth.Therefore,academia around the world have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the "middle income trap " and long-term trends of global economic growth.Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development,this paper defines the "middle income trap" and its characteristics and examines,through a large number of cases from different economies,the reasons why "growth slowdown " arises during the middle-income development stage.These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the "middle income trap ".

Causes for Middle Income Trap and Recommendations for China's Leaping Paths

The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this trap for decades. This paper analyzed the causes for the middle income trap of Latin American economies. On this basis,it came up with recommendations for China's leaping paths,including accelerating the structural reforms on the supply front to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,deepening the reform and increasing the efficiency with institutional innovation as the core,protecting legitimate property rights,reforming the income distribution,combining accurate poverty alleviation,narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor,performing administration according to laws,vigorously developing education,expanding the opening up,and keeping sustainable growth,so as to successfully leap over the middle income trap.

Is There a "Middle-income Trap"? Theories,Experiences and Relevance to China

Through review of relevant studies and analysis, this article indicates that the ＂middleincome trap ＂ is in line with the framework of the mainstream economic growth theories, and, therefore, it is a useful concept through which we can analyze economic growth phenomena in specific economic growth phases. The empirical experiences of many countries also indicate that at specific middle-income stages, economies with high rates of growth tend to encounter economic slowdown or even stagnation. The article shows that China is facing the challenge of determining how to move smoothly beyond the middle-income stage of economic development, while taking into account the shifting population structure, changing resource endowment and growth patterns. The article, drawing on international experiences, puts forward several policy suggestions relating to improvement in total factor productivity, expansion of human capital accumulation and deepening of system and governmentfunction reforms.

The Hukou and Land Tenure Systems as Two Middle Income Traps--The Case of Modern China

China＇s prevailing hukou （household registration） system and land tenure system seem to be very different in their applications. In fact, they both function to deny the exit right of rural residents from a rural community. Under these systems, rural residents are not allowed to freely exit from collectives if they do not want to lose their entitlements, such as their rights to using collectively owned land and their land-based properties. Farmers are neither allowed to sell their houses to outsiders, nor allowed to sell to outsiders their rights to contracting a piece of land from the collective where their households are registered. For migrant workers from rural areas, it is extremely difficult for them to obtain an urban hukou with all its associated entitlements at an urban locality where they currently work and live. The combined effect of the two systems leads to serious distortions in labor and land markets, resulting in discrimination against migrant workers, sprawling yet exclusive urbanization, housing bubbles, and depressed domestic demand. These distortions further entrench the existing and much widened urban/rural divide. Unless these two systems are thoroughly reformed, the rural residents in Chinese mainland will be trapped in their comparatively much lower income and remain unable to share the gains from the agglomeration effects of urbanization.

Supply-Side Reform Helps Escape Middle-Income Trap

China’s economic growth has now changed from high to medium-high speed,which has aroused arguments on whether the Chinese economy will experience a hard landing and fall into the middle-income trap.Answers to these questions must factor-in long-term growth frameworks as well as international conditions.

中国社会医疗保险制度未来发展的挑战与创新建议

中国社会医疗保险制度发展至今,已覆盖了95%以上的人口,筹资和报销待遇都达到了与国民经济所处的中等收入国家地位相称的水平,但也存在不同人群待遇相差悬殊、医保基金使用效率不高的问题。未来需要从实现公平的国民待遇、进行科学的医保筹资规划、制定统一的医疗服务价格、设计合理的医保报销政策、明确划分中央与地方政府的职责等方面,正视挑战,创新发展,避免医保制度发展的中等收入陷阱。

How Can China Avoid the Middle Income Trap？

Many middle income economies have been unable to advance to become high income economies over a period of 50 years or longer, not due to the existence of middle income traps, but because of the overly broad income range in the definition of middle income economies. The middle income trap is, in essence, a growth trap, and refers to the situation in which a middle income economy experiences growth stagnation or a growth rate that is lower than that of high income economies. Nonetheless, it is hard to fuUy comprehend the formation of the trap solely based on growth theories. Historical data indicate that the middle income economies do not lack growth potential, and the real problem is that although their long-term average growth rates are higher than those of the high income economies, their average growth rates over a business cycle or an even longer period of time often fall below those of the high income economies. The cause of this phenomenon is neither short- fluctuations nor long-term growth potential, but the.frequent occurrence of financial crises in middle income economies. As a middle income economy, China is also facing the risk of a financial crisis, and the key to avoiding the middle income trap is to guard against future financial crises, preventing unsound financial liberalization and mismanagement of the corporate debt ratio.

Possibility of a Middle Income Trap in China： Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation, Big Business and Inequality

This paper discusses the possibility of China falling into the so-called middle income trap in terms of three checkpoints： innovation capability, world-class big businesses, and inequality. Based on these criteria, our conclusions are as follows： First, China has increasingly become innovative and thus differs from other middle income countries. Second, China has many successful big businesses, a number disproportionate to its size. Thus, China differs from other middle income countries with few world-class big businesses, and the only qualification is that those big businesses are mostly non- manufacturing firms focused on such areas as finance, energy, and trading. Third, China faces great uncertainty in terms of inequality. Although several signs show that the Kuznets curve will come to represent China, as noted by the gradual reduction of surplus labor and rising wage rates starting in the coastal provinces, the Chinese are now facing new sources of inequality in China, such as wealth （including financial and real estate assets） and non-economic factors （including corruption）.

Productivity, Economic Growth and the Middle Income Trap： Implications for China

This paper explores the middle income trap （MIT） concept from the perspective of productivity growth. Through the examination of cross-country historical statistics as well as China＇s regional data, it sheds light on the debate about whether the Chinese economy can avoid the middle income trap. It should be one of the first papers proposing an analytical framework to address this controversial issue. The findings should have important implications for economic policies guiding China＇s development in the coming decades.

Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap？

China has departed from the East Asian development model by letting inequality rise to a high level, which is now contributing to China＇s current problems of macroeconomic imbalance, declining efficiency of capital, and rising social tensions. If inequality persists, China may get caught in the ＂inequality-trap,＂ which may then lead to the middle income trap （MIT）. Fortunately, China still has the levers to pull to reduce inequality and avoid the MIT. Measures along both the ＂wage route＂ and the ＂redistributive route＂ can be adopted for this purpose. In addition, China may pursue the ＂cooperative route＂ to more equitable distribution.

The Mechanism of the Middle Income Trap and the Potential Factors Influencing China＇s Economic Growth

Data from WDI show that developing countries are easily caught in the ＂middle income trap.＂ To interpret the mechanism of the ＂middle income trap,＂ this paper focuses on： （1） Based on the empirical framework of economic growth, we perform an empirical research on the determinants of economic growth at different income levels and discover that fixed capital investment, FDI and human capital accumulation are the main factors influencing less developed economies while for the upper middle income level and high-income level countries, the engines of economic growth change to institutions and R＆D. （2） We discuss the possible reasons why developing countries can have rapid economic growth before reaching the middleineome level, but cannot transform growth mechanisms in the middle income level. （3） We classify the factors that have influenced China＇s economic growth since the reform and analyze the potential ones for China＇s future development.

The Nature and Avoidance of the ＂Middle Income Trap＂

The ＂middle income trap＂ is a significant theoretical and practical issue closely related to the economic and social transition and sustainable development of a country. This paper explores the essence of the ＂middle income trap＂ and ways to avoid it. It reveals that the inner nature of the ＂middle income trap＂ lies in the institutional transition dilemma, which results essentially from a lack of reasonable and clear definitions of governance boundaries between government and market as well as government and society. This lack of boundaries causes coexistent and interrelated government inefficiency, market distortion/failure and social anomie, leading to a stagnant transition from a factor-driven to an efficiency-driven and further innovation-driven economy. Moreover, this paper proposes that the proper way to avoid the ＂trap＂ can be found in the reconstruction of the state governance mode, that is, to transition from a development-oriented and omnipotent government to a public service-oriented and limited government, from factor-driven to efficiency-driven and further innovation-driven development, and from a traditional society to a modem civil society through defining reasonable and clear boundaries between government and market as well as government and society. Thus, reconstruction can establish a state public governance mode featuring the interactive role of government, market and society, and achieve the modernization of state governance systems and capacity.

中等收入陷阱研究新进展

中等收入陷阱问题自提出以来受到广泛而持续关注,但现有文献缺乏对中等收入陷阱最新进展的述评。文章从增长、发展和国际环境多个视角回顾、总结和评述了中等收入陷阱概念的提出及其内涵外延扩展,给出了中等收入陷阱新的定义,并针对既有研究关于中等收入陷阱存在性的争议,进行了新的回答。在此基础上,基于新古典及内生增长理论、刘易斯拐点、库兹涅茨假说、传统比较优势理论、产品空间和比较优势演化理论以及中心外围理论,系统审视了不同影响因素及其内在作用机制何以及如何导致陷阱的发生,又提出了怎样的跨越路径,并据此指出了目前研究的不足之处和未来研究展望。本研究将增进对发展中国家面临的中等收入陷阱挑战的认识、科学构建中等收入陷阱的理论体系,对包括中国在内的发展中国家实现高质量可持续发展从而真正跨越中等收入陷阱具有重要的理论和现实意义。

中国能否跨越中等收入陷阱？--基于国际竞争力视角

本文基于国际竞争力结构动态分析框架及其理论分析,发现目前中国竞争优势结构仍然是基于要素驱动型,还没有实现向效率驱动型转交。竞争力结构局部赤字已经形成,整个竞争力结构已显现出了一些掉入中等收入陷阱经济体的征兆,落入中等收入陷阱风险加大。

跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国际比较与启示--从供给侧结构性改革的视角

未来5~10年,是我国迈向高收入国家行列的关键时期。从供给侧结构性改革的视角看,日本、韩国等赶超型国家顺利跨越"中等收入陷阱"的成功之处在于跨越期进行了及时有效的供需双侧改革,而巴西、阿根廷等拉美国家和俄罗斯、印度等"金砖国家"的教训各有各的不同。通过对这三类国家跨越"中等收入陷阱"经验和教训的总结分析可知,未来,我们必须正视和反思几十年来高速增长过程中累积的矛盾和问题,在保持本国经济自主性和掌控力的基础上,主动从供需双侧入手,加快技术创新体系建设,实现产业结构的转型升级和新旧发展动力的顺利转换,促进工业化城镇化协调发展,提升城镇化发展的质量和水平,加快优化收入分配结构,消除绝对贫困,壮大中产阶层,构建"橄榄型"社会,同时加快政府职能转变,培育壮大市场和社会的力量,大幅提升社会治理的能力和水平。