Spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain for middle and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application

The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.

Research on the seismotectonics of the Jan－uary 17，1995 Hanshin M7．2 earthquake

Based on the geological tectonics, aftershock activity, earthquake surface rupture and peak ground motion, the geometric and dynamic characteristics of seismogenic tectonics about the 1995 Hanshin earthquake are analysed. Nojima fault and Rokko fault have the same trending direction, but opposite dips. Their rising and falling plates are in symmetrically diagonal distribution. The two faults can be defined as thrust strike slip faults and constitute a pivotal strike slip fault. The earthquake just occurred at the pivot, which is the seismotectonics for the earthquake to develop and occur. The pivotal movement along a strike slip fault often leads to the occurrence of large earthquakes, whose dynamic process can be demonstrated by the stress analysis on the torsion of a beam with rectangle section. The displacement of earthquake surface rupture, aftershock density and peak acceleration change in a certain range of epicentral distance just similar as the shear stress changes from the center to the sides in the rectangle section. The distribution characteristics of the heaviest damage areas are also discussed in the article from the aspects of special geological tectonics and seismotectonic condition. The result obtained from the article can be applied not only to realizing the potencial earthquake sources in middle long time, but also to build reasonably the prediction model about earthquake hazard.

Geothermic activity and seismotectonics in the altitude of the Tibetan plateau

In the present analysis on the relationships among the depth of lithosphere brittle fracture, seismotectonics and geothermal anomalous active in Tibetan plateau were investigated using the seismic dada from ISC and Chinese seismic net and geothermal data. The results suggest that the region of anomalously geothermal activity almost coincides with that of the normal faulting type earthquake. The geothermal anomaly activity region coincides spatially with that of the events deeper than 60 km as well as. The normal faulting earthquakes may be mainly tectonic activity regimes until 110 km deep in the thermal anomaly region. The strike directions of events are likely the N-S direction, coinciding with the strike of the thermal anomaly active belts. The earthquakes align along the normal faults and faulted-depression zone with the N-S direction. The thermal anomaly activity also distributes along the faulted-depression zone. Many events deeper than 60 km exist in the anomalously geothermal activity region in the plateau. Events extend to bottom of the lithosphere of 110 km from the surface, like columnar seismic crowd. The lithosphere extends along the E-W direction due to the E-W extensional stress in the central and southern Tibetan plateau, altitude of the plateau. The t6nsional stress in the E-W results in the lithosphere fractures and the normal faults striking N-S direction, grabens and faulted-depression zones. Thermal material from the asthenosphere wells upward to the surface along deep seismic fractures and faults through the thick crust. The anomalously thermal activities are attributable to the upwelling thermal material from the mantle in the altitude of Tibetan plateau.