THE IMPACTS OF INTERACTION OF A TYPHOON WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ON ITS TRACK AFTER THE RECURVATURE

Three typhoon cases are selected to conduct a series of simulations that are initialized from sequential analyses. The results show that the forecast error in crucial area where a tropical cyclone(TC) interactes with the upstream trough is highly correlated to the track forecast error after the TC recurvature. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments confirm that the developments of the midlatitude downstream circulations and then the TC track after its recurvature are highly sensitive to the TC intensity and its location relative to the upstream trough, which can give an example or one way of sensitivity of the TC track to the TC-trough interaction. If the TC interacts with the upstream trough more strongly(e.g., the TC being intensified or getting closer to the upstream trough), the downstream circulations will be more meridional, thus the TC track will be more northerly and westerly; otherwise, the downstream circulations will be more zonal, and the TC track will be more southerly and easterly.

A Cross-Seasonal Linkage between Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Summertime Temperature Fluctuations

This study explores the linkage between summertime temperature fluctuations over midlatitude Eurasia and the preceding Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) by utilizing the squared norm of the temperature anomaly, the essential part of local eddy available potential energy, as a metric to quantify the temperature fluctuations with weather patterns on various timescales. By comparing groups of singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we suggest a significant linkage between strong (weak) August 10-to-30-day temperature fluctuations over mid-west Asia and enhanced (decreased) Barents-Kara Sea ice in the previous February. We find that when the February SIC increases in the Barents-Kara Sea, a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies appears in the Atlantic subpolar region and lasts from February into the summer months. Evidence suggests that in such a background state, the atmospheric circulation changes evidently from July to August, so that the August is characterized by an amplified meridional circulation over Eurasia, weakened westerlies, and high- pressure anomalies along the Arctic coast. Moreover, the 10-to-30-day wave becomes more active in the North Atlantic-Barents-Kara Sea-Central Asia regions and manifests a more evident southward propagation from the Barents- Kara Sea into the Ural region, which is responsible for the enhanced 10-to-30-day wave activity and temperature fluctuations in the region.