种群生存力分析(population viable analysis,PVA)是保护生物学中物种保护与维持的重要理论之一,其中包括最小可存活种群(minimum viable population,MVP)与最小适生面积(minimum areas of suitable habitat,MASH).介绍MVP与MASH的几种...种群生存力分析(population viable analysis,PVA)是保护生物学中物种保护与维持的重要理论之一,其中包括最小可存活种群(minimum viable population,MVP)与最小适生面积(minimum areas of suitable habitat,MASH).介绍MVP与MASH的几种常用的计算模型及其在保护生物学中的应用与发展,包括MVP的理论模型、模拟模型与复合种群模型以及MASH的面积-密度模型与面积-种群变异模型.根据PVA的理论讨论其在农田害虫种群控制中的作用,预测农田害虫的发生及持续程度与天敌对害虫的控制作用,从PVA理论上揭示天敌对害虫的控制潜力及应用前景.展开更多
The Yangtze finless porpoise(Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis),a critically endangered species,is the only cetacean species in the Yangtze River following the functional extinction of baiji(Lipotes vexillif...The Yangtze finless porpoise(Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis),a critically endangered species,is the only cetacean species in the Yangtze River following the functional extinction of baiji(Lipotes vexillifer).To inform conservation actions,two important questions need to be addressed:what is the threshold value of survival rate,and what is the threshold value of population size?We calculate the instantaneous rate of population increase(¯r)for the Yangtze finless porpoise for various combinations of the calf and the non-calf survival rates.We also test the probability of extinction for different minimum carrying capacities for 100 and 500 years using a stable population model.The threshold value of the non-calf survival rate is never lower than 0.869,but current estimates from field data have been far below this threshold.Our model based on extinction probability and carrying capacity suggests that the threshold for the population size to persist 100 years required 113 animals,and 472 animals are required to persist 500 years.Therefore,we recommend establishing an ex situ reserve network to guarantee the minimum 100-year carrying capacity.To ensure the long-term population viability,we suggest establishing two in situ reserve zones in two lakes and their surrounding reserves to meet a minimum 500-year carrying capacity.In addition,measures to avoid further habitat fragmentation should be priority.展开更多
A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest fra...A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest fragments.Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to per-sist over the next 100 years;however,200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population.Sensitiv-ity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations.High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction.Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation,as fragments act as sinks.Nevertheless,the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region,particularly in the smaller fragments.The establishment of corridors con-necting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate,making ta-pirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes,but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using cor-ridors.The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on:the effective protection of MDSP;maintenance and,whenever possible,enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape,reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments;and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments.展开更多
文摘种群生存力分析(population viable analysis,PVA)是保护生物学中物种保护与维持的重要理论之一,其中包括最小可存活种群(minimum viable population,MVP)与最小适生面积(minimum areas of suitable habitat,MASH).介绍MVP与MASH的几种常用的计算模型及其在保护生物学中的应用与发展,包括MVP的理论模型、模拟模型与复合种群模型以及MASH的面积-密度模型与面积-种群变异模型.根据PVA的理论讨论其在农田害虫种群控制中的作用,预测农田害虫的发生及持续程度与天敌对害虫的控制作用,从PVA理论上揭示天敌对害虫的控制潜力及应用前景.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA23040403)the National Key Programme of Research and Development of Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2016YFC0503200)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.31430080)the Bureau of Science&Technology for Development of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.ZSSD-004).
文摘The Yangtze finless porpoise(Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis),a critically endangered species,is the only cetacean species in the Yangtze River following the functional extinction of baiji(Lipotes vexillifer).To inform conservation actions,two important questions need to be addressed:what is the threshold value of survival rate,and what is the threshold value of population size?We calculate the instantaneous rate of population increase(¯r)for the Yangtze finless porpoise for various combinations of the calf and the non-calf survival rates.We also test the probability of extinction for different minimum carrying capacities for 100 and 500 years using a stable population model.The threshold value of the non-calf survival rate is never lower than 0.869,but current estimates from field data have been far below this threshold.Our model based on extinction probability and carrying capacity suggests that the threshold for the population size to persist 100 years required 113 animals,and 472 animals are required to persist 500 years.Therefore,we recommend establishing an ex situ reserve network to guarantee the minimum 100-year carrying capacity.To ensure the long-term population viability,we suggest establishing two in situ reserve zones in two lakes and their surrounding reserves to meet a minimum 500-year carrying capacity.In addition,measures to avoid further habitat fragmentation should be priority.
文摘A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest fragments.Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to per-sist over the next 100 years;however,200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population.Sensitiv-ity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations.High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction.Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation,as fragments act as sinks.Nevertheless,the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region,particularly in the smaller fragments.The establishment of corridors con-necting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate,making ta-pirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes,but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using cor-ridors.The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on:the effective protection of MDSP;maintenance and,whenever possible,enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape,reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments;and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments.
