Carbon reduction potential and cost evaluation of different mitigation approaches in China’s coal to olefin Industry

Coal-based olefin(CTO)industry as a complement of traditional petrochemical industry plays vital role in China’s national economic development.However,high CO2 emission in CTO industry is one of the fatal problems to hinder its development.In this work,the carbon emission and mitigation potentials by different reduction pathways are evaluated.The economic cost is analyzed and compared as well.According to the industry development plan,the carbon emissions from China’s CTO industry will attain 189.43 million ton C02(MtC02)and 314.11 MtC02 in 2020 and 2030,respectively.With the advanced technology level,the maximal carbon mitigation potential could be attained to 15.3%and 21.9%in 2020 and 2030.If the other optional mitigation ways are combined together,the carbon emission could further reduce to some extent.In general,the order of mitigation potential is followed as:feedstock alteration by natural gas>C02 hydrogenation with renewable electricity applied>CCS technology.The mitigation cost analysis indicates that on the basis of 2015 situation,the economic penalty for feedstock alteration is the lowest,ranged between 186 and 451 CNY/tCO2,and the cost from CCS technology is ranged between 404 and 562 CNY/tC02,which is acceptable if the C02 enhanced oil recovery and carbon tax are considered.However,for the C02 hydrogenation technology,the cost is extremely high and there is almost no application possibility at present.

Effects of the US withdrawal from Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and cost of China and India

Climate mitigation has become a global issue and most countries have promised their greenhouse gas reduction target. However, after Trump took office as president of the United States （US）, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement. As the biggest economy, this would have impacts on the emission space of other countries. This paper, by using the integrated model of energy, environ- ment and economy/computable general equilibrium （IMED/CGE） model, assesses the impacts of the US withdrawal from Paris Agreement on China, India in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions （NDCs） and 2~C scenarios due to changed emission pathway of the US. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among the countries, the failure of the US to honor its NDC commitment will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other regions, including China and India, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2℃ target, the carbon price will increase by US$14.3 to US$45.3/t in China and by US S10.7 to US$33.9/t in India. In addition, China and India will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2℃ target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$23.3 to US$72.6 billion （equivalent to US$17.4 to US$54.2/capita）, and that of India would rise by US$14.2 to US$43.1 billion （equivalent to US$9.3 to US$28.2/capita）.