A Bayesian Approach with Prior Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium for Vehicle Intention Prediction

The state-of-the-art technology in the field of vehicle automation will lead to a mixed traffic environment in the coming years,where connected and automated vehicles have to interact with human-driven vehicles.In this context,it is necessary to have intention prediction models with the capability of forecasting how the traffic scenario is going to evolve with respect to the physical state of vehicles,the possible maneuvers and the interactions between traffic participants within the seconds to come.This article presents a Bayesian approach for vehicle intention forecasting,utilizing a game-theoretic framework in the form of a Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium(MSNE)as a prior estimate to model the reciprocal influence between traffic participants.The likelihood is then computed based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence.The game is modeled as a static nonzero-sum polymatrix game with individual preferences,a well known strategic game.Finding the MSNE for these games is in the PPAD∩PLS complexity class,with polynomial-time tractability.The approach shows good results in simulations in the long term horizon(10s),with its computational complexity allowing for online applications.

Metal-organic frameworks with mixed-ligands strategy as heterogeneous nucleation center to assist crystallization for efficient and stable perovskite solar cells

Deep-level defects and random oriented configuration in perovskite crystallization process would cause the nonradiative recombination and further affect the performance of perovskite solar cells(PSCs).Herein,two metal-organic frameworks(MOFs)with tunable Lewis-base passivation sites have been constructed(Cd-Httb and Cd-Httb-BDC,Httb=5-(4-(1H-1,2,4-triazole-1-yl)benzyl)-1h-tetrazole,BDC=1,4-dicarboxybenzene)to eliminate deep-level defects and simultaneously as nanostructured heterogeneous nucleation seed to assist the growth of large-grained perovskite films.Compared with the control and Cd-Httb,Cd-Httb-BDC designed with mix-ligands strategy exhibited the enhanced inducted effect on the crystallization and nucleation of high-quality perovskite films during annealing process.Consequently,the resultant Cd-Httb-BDC-modified device achieved higher power conversion efficiency(PCE)(22.18%)than the control(20.89%)and Cd-Httb(21.56%).Meanwhile,the unencapsulated Cd-Httb-BDC-modified device still maintained 90%of initial PCE after 1500 h in ambient conditions and exhibited enhanced thermal stability(85℃ in N_(2) atmosphere).This work presented a successful example of mixligands strategy on construction of high-quality MOF-assisted perovskite films for high-efficient and stable PSCs.

Evaluation and Optimization of the Mixed Redundancy Strategy in Cloud-Based Systems

Mixed redundancy strategies are generally used in cloud-based systems,with different node switch mechanisms from traditional fault-tolerant strategies.Existing studies often concentrate on optimizing a single strategy in cloud computing environment and ignore the impact of mixed redundancy strategies.Therefore,a model is proposed to evaluate and optimize the reliability and performance of cloud-based degraded systems subject to a mixed active and cold standby redundancy strategy.In this strategy,node switching is triggered by a continual monitoring and detection mechanism when active nodes fail.To evaluate the transient availability and the expected job completion rate of systems with such kind of strategy,a continuous-time Markov chain model is built on the state transition process and a numerical method is used to solve the model.To choose the optimal redundancy for the mixed strategy under system constraints,a greedy search algorithm is proposed after sensitivity analysis.Illustrative examples were presented to explain the process of calculating the transient probability of each system state and in turn,the availability and performance of the whole system.It was shown that the near-optimal redundancy solution could be obtained using the optimizationmethod.The comparison with optimization of the traditional mixed redundancy strategy proved that the system behavior was different using different kinds of mixed strategies and less redundancy was assigned for the new type of mixed strategy under the same system constraint.

Optimal confrontation position selecting games model and its application to one-on-one air combat

In the air combat process,confrontation position is the critical factor to determine the confrontation situation,attack effect and escape probability of UAVs.Therefore,selecting the optimal confrontation position becomes the primary goal of maneuver decision-making.By taking the position as the UAV’s maneuver strategy,this paper constructs the optimal confrontation position selecting games(OCPSGs)model.In the OCPSGs model,the payoff function of each UAV is defined by the difference between the comprehensive advantages of both sides,and the strategy space of each UAV at every step is defined by its accessible space determined by the maneuverability.Then we design the limit approximation of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium(LAMSNQ)algorithm,which provides a method to determine the optimal probability distribution of positions in the strategy space.In the simulation phase,we assume the motions on three directions are independent and the strategy space is a cuboid to simplify the model.Several simulations are performed to verify the feasibility,effectiveness and stability of the algorithm.

Game Analysis of Regulation for Online Prescription Drugs under Customer Feedback Mechanism

Objective To study the way to better regulate the online sales of prescription drugs,and to provide reference for the adjustment of relevant policies since the online sales of prescription drugs has become an inevitable trend.Methods A game model was constructed for the strategy choice of pharmaceutical e-commerce platform,customers and government departments based on differential game theory and Nash equilibrium game model to analyze the pure strategy Nash equilibrium,Nash equilibrium dominant strategy of each subject and the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium under different conditions.Besides,Matlab was used to carry out simulation analysis.Results and Conclusion The study shows that:(1)Improving the credibility of the government and reducing the cost of government regulation can not only make the pharmaceutical e-commerce platform operate with high quality,but also give greater play to government functions;(2)The greater the influence of social evaluation on pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms,the lower the cost of high-quality operation of pharmaceutical e-commerce platform,and the greater the probability of customer choosing real evaluation strategy;(3)The greater the customers’perception of potential risk,the greater the compensation,and the lower the cost of reporting.Then,the greater the probability that government departments will choose strict regulation.Finally,the model solution and simulation analysis are combined to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the safety regulation of online sales of prescription drugs.

On Topics in Quantum Games

This work concentrates on simultaneous move non-cooperating quantum games. Part of it is evidently not new, but it is included for the sake self consistence, as it is devoted to introduction of the mathematical and physical grounds of the pertinent topics, and the way in which a simple classical game is modified to become a quantum game (a procedure referred to as a quantization of a classical game). The connection between game theory and information science is briefly stressed, and the role of quantum entanglement (that plays a central role in the theory of quantum games), is exposed. Armed with these tools, we investigate some basic concepts like the existence (or absence) of a pure strategy and mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and its relation with the degree of entanglement. The main results of this work are as follows: 1) Construction of a numerical algorithm based on the method of best response functions, designed to search for pure strategy Nash equilibrium in quantum games. The formalism is based on the discretization of a continuous variable into a mesh of points, and can be applied to quantum games that are built upon two-players two-strategies classical games, based on the method of best response functions. 2) Application of this algorithm to study the question of how the existence of pure strategy Nash equilibrium is related to the degree of entanglement (specified by a continuous parameter γ ). It is shown that when the classical game GC has a pure strategy Nash equilibrium that is not Pareto efficient, then the quantum game GQ with maximal entanglement (γ = π/2) has no pure strategy Nash equilibrium. By studying a non-symmetric prisoner dilemma game, it is found that there is a critical value 0γc such that for γγc there is a pure strategy Nash equilibrium and for γ≥γc there is no pure strategy Nash equilibrium. The behavior of the two payoffs as function of γ starts at that of the classical ones at (D, D) and approaches the cooperative classical ones at (C, C) (C = confess, D = don’t confess). 3) We then study Bayesian quantum games and show that under certain conditions, there is a pure strategy Nash equilibrium in such games even when entanglement is maximal. 4) We define the basic ingredients of a quantum game based on a two-player three strategies classical game. This requires the introduction of trits (instead of bits) and quantum trits (instead of quantum bits). It is proved that in this quantum game, there is no classical commensurability in the sense that the classical strategies are not obtained as a special case of the quantum strategies.

Achievability of Chong-Motani-Garg relay channel capacity bounds using forward decoding

To reduce decoding delay of a communication scheme which is backward-decoding-based and achievable Chong Motani-Garg capacity bounds, a novel forward-sliding-window decoding-based communication scheme is proposed. In this scheme, if w = （w1, w2） is the message to be sent in block b, the relay will decode message w1 and generate a new message z at the end of block b, and the receiver will decode message w1 at the end of block b ＋ 1 and decode message z and w2 at the end of block b ＋ 2. Analysis results show that this new communication scheme can achieve the same Chong-Motani-Garg bounds and the decoding delay is only two blocks which is much shorter than that of backward decoding. Therefore, Chong-Motani-Garg bounds can be achieved by a forward decoding-based communication scheme with short decoding delay.

Autonomous Maneuver Decisions via Transfer Learning Pigeon-Inspired Optimization for UCAVs in Dogfight Engagements

This paper proposes an autonomous maneuver decision method using transfer learning pigeon-inspired optimization(TLPIO)for unmanned combat aerial vehicles(UCAVs)in dogfight engagements.Firstly,a nonlinear F-16 aircraft model and automatic control system are constructed by a MATLAB/Simulink platform.Secondly,a 3-degrees-of-freedom(3-DOF)aircraft model is used as a maneuvering command generator,and the expanded elemental maneuver library is designed,so that the aircraft state reachable set can be obtained.Then,the game matrix is composed with the air combat situation evaluation function calculated according to the angle and range threats.Finally,a key point is that the objective function to be optimized is designed using the game mixed strategy,and the optimal mixed strategy is obtained by TLPIO.Significantly,the proposed TLPIO does not initialize the population randomly,but adopts the transfer learning method based on Kullback-Leibler(KL)divergence to initialize the population,which improves the search accuracy of the optimization algorithm.Besides,the convergence and time complexity of TLPIO are discussed.Comparison analysis with other classical optimization algorithms highlights the advantage of TLPIO.In the simulation of air combat,three initial scenarios are set,namely,opposite,offensive and defensive conditions.The effectiveness performance of the proposed autonomous maneuver decision method is verified by simulation results.

MIXED HEDGING UNDER ADDITIVE MARKET PRICE INFORMATION

Assume that there is additional market information in the financial market, which is represented by n given T-contingent claims. The special claims with observed prices at time 0 can only be traded at time 0. Hence, investment opportunities increase. By means of the techniques developed by Gourierout et al. （1998）, the mixed hedging problem is considered, especially, the price of contingent claim and the optimal hedging strategy are obtained. An explicit description of the mean-variance efficient solution is given after arguing mean-variance efficient frontier problem.

R & D STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN AN ASYMMETRICAL CASE

This article analyzes R ＆ D investment decisions in an asymmetrical case. The investment decisions share three important characteristics. First, the investment is completely irreversible. Second, there are two kinds of uncertainties over the future returns from the investment and over technology in R ＆ D process, respectively. Third, there is strategic competition in the asymmetrical case. This article presents the optimal investment threshold values and the optimal investment rule of high-efficient firm （leader）, and shows that the investment threshold values are reduced by competition of two firms. Finally, the mixed investment strategies for two firms, the probability that each firm separately exercises the option to invest, and the probability that two firms simultaneously exercise the option are given in the paper.

Research on End-force Output of 8-cable Driven Parallel Manipulator

The return capsule needs to be launched to the moon and return back to earth in the third stage of the Chinese lunar exploration project.Therefore,it is necessary to perform simulations on the ground.This paper presents an 8-cable-driven parallel manipulator to achieve end-force output in a low-gravity environment.End-force output refers to the vector sum of the external force on the end-effector.A model of end-force output is established based on a kinematics model,a dynamic model,and a force analysis of an 8-cable driven parallel manipulator.To obtain end-force output in a low-gravity environment,the cable force has to be controlled to counteract gravity.In addition,a force-position mix control strategy is proposed to proactively control the cable force according to the force optimal distribution given by the closed-form force distribution method.Furthermore,a suitable choice for an end-force output is obtained by modeling the effect of cable force on end-force output.Experimental results show that the actual cable force agrees well with the calculated force distribution,indicating that it is feasible to realize end-force output in a low gravity environment.