Two Monte Carlo-based simulators for imaging-system modeling and projection simulation of flat-panel X-ray source

The advantages of a flat-panel X-ray source(FPXS)make it a promising candidate for imaging applications.Accurate imaging-system modeling and projection simulation are critical for analyzing imaging performance and resolving overlapping projection issues in FPXS.The conventional analytical ray-tracing approach is limited by the number of patterns and is not applicable to FPXS-projection calculations.However,the computation time of Monte Carlo(MC)simulation is independent of the size of the patterned arrays in FPXS.This study proposes two high-efficiency MC projection simulators for FPXS:a graphics processing unit(GPU)-based phase-space sampling MC(gPSMC)simulator and GPU-based fluence sampling MC(gFSMC)simulator.The two simulators comprise three components:imaging-system modeling,photon initialization,and physical-interaction simulations in the phantom.Imaging-system modeling was performed by modeling the FPXS,imaging geometry,and detector.The gPSMC simulator samples the initial photons from the phase space,whereas the gFSMC simulator performs photon initialization from the calculated energy spectrum and fluence map.The entire process of photon interaction with the geometry and arrival at the detector was simulated in parallel using multiple GPU kernels,and projections based on the two simulators were calculated.The accuracies of the two simulators were evaluated by comparing them with the conventional analytical ray-tracing approach and acquired projections,and the efficiencies were evaluated by comparing the computation time.The results of simulated and realistic experiments illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed gPSMC and gFSMC simulators in the projection calculation of various phantoms.

Facilitated Prediction of Micropollutant Degradation via UV-AOPs in Various Waters by Combining Model Simulation and Portable Measurement

The degradation of micropollutants in water via ultraviolet(UV)-based advanced oxidation processes(AOPs)is strongly dependent on the water matrix.Various reactive radicals(RRs)formed in UV-AOPs have different reaction selectivities toward water matrices and degradation efficiencies for target micropollutants.Hence,process selection and optimization are crucial.This study developed a facilitated prediction method for the photon fluence-based rate constant for micropollutant degradation(K′_(p,MP))in various UV-AOPs by combining model simulation with portable measurement.Portable methods for measuring the scavenging capacities of the principal RRs(RRSCs)involved in UV-AOPs(i.e.,HO^(·),SO_(4)^(·-),and Cl^(·))using a mini-fluidic photoreaction system were proposed.The simulation models consisted of photochemical,quantitative structure–activity relationship,and radical concentration steady-state approximation models.The RRSCs were determined in eight test waters,and a higher RRSC was found to be associated with a more complex water matrix.Then,by taking sulfamethazine,caffeine,and carbamazepine as model micropollutants,the k′_(p,MP) values in various UV-AOPs were predicted and further verified experimentally.A lower k′_(p,MP) was found to be associated with a higher RRSC for a stronger RR competition;for example,k′_(p,MP) values of 130.9 and 332.5 m^(2) einstein^(–1),respectively,were obtained for carbamazepine degradation by UV/H_(2)O_(2) in the raw water(RRSC=9.47×10^(4) s^(-1))and sand-filtered effluent(RRSC=2.87×10^(4) s^(-1))of a drinking water treatment plant.The developed method facilitates process selection and optimization for UV-AOPs,which is essential for increasing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of water treatment.

Correcting Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:Climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated impacts.However,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future projections.Addressing these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning methods.Here,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST extremes.Notably,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to rectify.Additionally,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to 0.32.This enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales variabilities.Our study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Explosion resistance performance of reinforced concrete box girder coated with polyurea:Model test and numerical simulation

To study the anti-explosion protection effect of polyurea coating on reinforced concrete box girder,two segmental girder specimens were made at a scale of 1:3,numbered as G(without polyurea coating)and PCG(with polyurea coating).The failure characteristics and dynamic responses of the specimens were compared through conducting explosion tests.The reliability of the numerical simulation using LS-DYNA software was verified by the test results.The effects of different scaled distances,reinforcement ratios,concrete strengths,coating thicknesses and ranges of polyurea were studied.The results show that the polyurea coating can effectively enhance the anti-explosion performance of the girder.The top plate of middle chamber in specimen G forms an elliptical penetrating hole,while that in specimen PCG only shows a very slight local dent.The peak vertical displacement and residual displacement of PCG decrease by 74.8% and 73.7%,respectively,compared with those of specimen G.For the TNT explosion with small equivalent,the polyurea coating has a more significant protective effect on reducing the size of fracture.With the increase of TNT equivalent,the protective effect of polyurea on reducing girder displacement becomes more significant.The optimal reinforcement ratio,concrete strength,thickness and range of polyurea coating were also drawn.

Complex adaptive system theory,agent-based modeling,and simulation in dominant technology formation

Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.

Multi-Time Scale Operation and Simulation Strategy of the Park Based on Model Predictive Control

Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve the expected economy.This paper constructs an operating simulation model of the park power grid operation considering demand response and proposes a multi-time scale operating simulation method that combines day-ahead optimization and model predictive control(MPC).In the day-ahead stage,an operating simulation plan that comprehensively considers the user’s side comfort and operating costs is proposed with a long-term time scale of 15 min.In order to cope with power fluctuations of photovoltaic,wind turbine and conventional load,MPC is used to track and roll correct the day-ahead operating simulation plan in the intra-day stage to meet the actual operating operation status of the park.Finally,the validity and economy of the operating simulation strategy are verified through the analysis of arithmetic examples.

Mathematical modeling and simulations of stress mitigation by coating polycrystalline particles in lithium-ion batteries

A chemo-mechanical model is developed to investigate the effects on the stress development of the coating of polycrystalline Ni-rich LiNixMnyCo_(z)O_(2)(x≥0.8)(NMC)particles with poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene)(PEDOT).The simulation results show that the coating of primary NMC particles significantly reduces the stress generation by efficiently accommodating the volume change associated with the lithium diffusion,and the coating layer plays roles both as a cushion against the volume change and a channel for the lithium transport,promoting the lithium distribution across the secondary particles more homogeneously.Besides,the lower stiffness,higher ionic conductivity,and larger thickness of the coating layer improve the stress mitigation.This paper provides a mathematical framework for calculating the chemo-mechanical responses of anisotropic electrode materials and fundamental insights into how the coating of NMC active particles mitigates stress levels.

Modularized and Parametric Modeling Technology for Finite Element Simulations of Underground Engineering under Complicated Geological Conditions

The surrounding geological conditions and supporting structures of underground engineering are often updated during construction,and these updates require repeated numerical modeling.To improve the numerical modeling efficiency of underground engineering,a modularized and parametric modeling cloud server is developed by using Python codes.The basic framework of the cloud server is as follows:input the modeling parameters into the web platform,implement Rhino software and FLAC3D software to model and run simulations in the cloud server,and return the simulation results to the web platform.The modeling program can automatically generate instructions that can run the modeling process in Rhino based on the input modeling parameters.The main modules of the modeling program include modeling the 3D geological structures,the underground engineering structures,and the supporting structures as well as meshing the geometric models.In particular,various cross-sections of underground caverns are crafted as parametricmodules in themodeling program.Themodularized and parametric modeling program is used for a finite element simulation of the underground powerhouse of the Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station.This complicatedmodel is rapidly generated for the simulation,and the simulation results are reasonable.Thus,this modularized and parametric modeling program is applicable for three-dimensional finite element simulations and analyses.

Modeling and Simulation of an Organic Photovoltaic Cell: ITO/MoO3/CARAPA/PCBM/Alq3/Al with SCAPS

Renewable energies are of major interest due to their inexhaustible and clean nature, with minimal impact on the environment. Numerous technological pathways exist in this field, each distinguished by the materials used and their implementation principles. However, the cost-efficiency ratio remains a significant challenge for researchers. Currently, organic materials are gaining popularity due to their relatively low cost. However, their performance, particularly in terms of conversion efficiency, still requires improvements. This study focuses on optimizing the organic photovoltaic cell ITO/MoO3/CARAPA/PCBM/Alq3/Al using SCAPS. Several parameters were considered, such as layer thickness, recombination center density, and doping, to improve the cell’s performance. The optimal parameters obtained include an efficiency of 3%, a fill factor of 81.67%, an open-circuit voltage of 1610 mV, and a short-circuit current of 2.28 mA/cm2. The study also revealed that doping the phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) layer has a significant impact on efficiency and short-circuit current, improving these parameters up to a certain point before causing degradation due to increased recombination. Furthermore, high doping of the tri (8-hydroxyquinoline) aluminum (Alq3) layer improves performance up to a critical threshold, after which degradation is also observed. In contrast, doping the molybdenum trioxide (MoO3) layer does not have a notable impact on cell performance. Regarding the thickness of the active Carapaprocera (CARAPA) and PCBM layers, non-optimal values lead to a decrease in performance. Similarly, an optimal thickness of the Alq3 layer significantly improves efficiency. These results highlight the importance of parameter optimization to maximize the efficiency of organic solar cells.

Integrated Hydrological Modeling of the Godavari River Basin in Maharashtra Using the SWAT Model: Streamflow Simulation and Analysis

Hydrological modeling plays a crucial role in efficiently managing water resources and understanding the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. This study aims to simulate daily streamflow in the Godavari River Basin in Maharashtra using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a process-based hydrological model used to predict water balance components, sediment levels, and nutrient contamination. In this research, we used integrated remote sensing and GIS data, including Digital Elevation Models (DEM), land use and land cover (LULC) maps, soil maps, and observed precipitation and temperature data, as input for developing the SWAT model to assess surface runoff in this large river basin. The Godavari River Basin under study was divided into 25 sub-basins, comprising 151 hydrological response units categorized by unique land cover, soil, and slope characteristics using the SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated against observed runoff data for two time periods: 2003-2006 and 2007-2010 respectively. Model performance was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show the effectiveness of the SWAT2012 model, with R2 value of 0.84 during calibration and 0.86 during validation. NSE values also ranged from 0.84 during calibration to 0.85 during validation. These findings enhance our understanding of surface runoff dynamics in the Godavari River Basin under study and highlight the suit-ability of the SWAT model for this region.

Numerical simulation of microwave-induced cracking and melting of granite based on mineral microscopic models

This study introduces a coupled electromagnetic–thermal–mechanical model to reveal the mechanisms of microcracking and mineral melting of polymineralic rocks under microwave radiation.Experimental tests validate the rationality of the proposed model.Embedding microscopic mineral sections into the granite model for simulation shows that uneven temperature gradients create distinct molten,porous,and nonmolten zones on the fracture surface.Moreover,the varying thermal expansion coefficients and Young's moduli among the minerals induce significant thermal stress at the mineral boundaries.Quartz and biotite with higher thermal expansion coefficients are subjected to compression,whereas plagioclase with smaller coefficients experiences tensile stress.In the molten zone,quartz undergoes transgranular cracking due to theα–βphase transition.The local high temperatures also induce melting phase transitions in biotite and feldspar.This numerical study provides new insights into the distribution of thermal stress and mineral phase changes in rocks under microwave irradiation.

Application of Modelica Based Multi- Domain Modeling and Simulation for Gravity-1

In the R&D phase of Gravity-1(YL-1), a multi-domain modeling and simulation technology based on Modelica language was introduced, which was a recent attempt in the practice of modeling and simulation method for launch vehicles in China. It realizes a complex coupling model within a unified model for different domains, so that technologists can work on one model. It ensured the success of YL-1 first launch mission, supports rapid iteration, full validation, and tight design collaboration.

Matlab-Simulink Simulation Model of Electric Multiple Unit(EMU)Series ŽS 413/417 in Traction and Electric Braking Mode

In the paper,the Matlab-Simulink model of simulation of operation of theŽS 413/417 series EMU(electric multiple unit)in traction and braking mode is exposed where changes are observed:stator currents of three-phase traction motors,traction electric motor speeds and EMU,electromagnetic torque on the rotor shaft of the traction electric motor and DC(direct current)bus voltage.The model allowed review of the listed parameters for:different allowed values of contact network voltage and total voltage distortion at the place of connection of the EMU to the contact network,different mechanical loads of EMU and traction electric motor and different train speeds and rotation of traction electric motors.Appropriate conclusions were made through the analysis of the simulation results obtained.

From Simulation to Reality: A Comprehensive Study on the Efficacy of a Rotating Monopolar and Bipolar Radiofrequency System through In-Silico Modeling and Pre-Clinical and Clinical Validation

Background: Skin aging is an unavoidable process aggravated by environmental agents. Among other energy devices, non-invasive radiofrequency (RF) technology is widely used for skin tightening and body contouring as it is simpler and more affordable than other technologies that also minimize pain and side-effects. However, most of the current RF devices do not provide automatic skin temperature control and it is difficult to achieve controlled, deep, and harmless thermal increase, so treatment performance and safety is dependent on the operator’s movements and expertise. Objective: To show the potential of numerical simulations for optimizing the design of monopolar and bipolar RF electrodes that are capable of providing homogeneous, deep and controlled heating. Materials and methods: In-silico models were developed and analyzed using Comsol Multiphysics software to simulate the RF effect produced in tissue by rotating monopolar and bipolar electrodes with different geometries from the Sculpt & Shape RF device (Sinclair, Spain), operating at frequencies of 0.5 and 1 MHz. Ex-vivo and in-vivo proof-of-concept tests were carried out to validate the simulations. Finally, treatments were performed on 16 subjects and a total of 78 body areas to assess the clinical results generated by the RF electrodes for skin tightening and body contouring. Results: In-silico studies emulated the superficial and deep dispersion of heat due to the release of RF energy into human skin tissue. The rotating electrodes (monopolar and bipolar) and the selected RF frequency (0.5 and 1 MHz) determined the homogeneity of the thermal distribution, the penetration depth (between 4.37 mm and 25.0 mm) and the heating dynamics (between 30 and 100 seconds to reach the target skin temperature), which were confirmed by ex-vivo and in-vivo tests. In addition, real treatments on facial and body areas using skin temperatures of between 43˚C and 44˚C showed consistent results with good clinical efficacy for skin tightening, circumference reduction and cellulite reduction, with no adverse effects and high subject satisfaction. Conclusions: New monopolar and bipolar RF electrodes with rotating technology have been designed and optimized using numerical simulations. The use of in-silico studies and accurate models that reproduce the thermal behavior of human biological tissues can be used to better understand RF devices and to develop superior, efficient, and safer products more quickly.

Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation Optimization of Transmission Front and Middle Case Assembly Line

As the take-off of China’s macro economy,as well as the rapid development of infrastructure construction,real estate industry,and highway logistics transportation industry,the demand for heavy vehicles is increasing rapidly,the competition is becoming increasingly fierce,and the digital transformation of the production line is imminent.As one of themost important components of heavy vehicles,the transmission front andmiddle case assembly lines have a high degree of automation,which can be used as a pilot for the digital transformation of production.To ensure the visualization of digital twins(DT),consistent control logic,and real-time data interaction,this paper proposes an experimental digital twin modeling method for the transmission front and middle case assembly line.Firstly,theDT-based systemarchitecture is designed,and theDT model is created by constructing the visualization model,logic model,and data model of the assembly line.Then,a simulation experiment is carried out in a virtual space to analyze the existing problems in the current assembly line.Eventually,some improvement strategies are proposed and the effectiveness is verified by a new simulation experiment.

Three-dimensional finite element simulation and reconstruction of jointed rock models using CT scanning and photogrammetry

The geometry of joints has a significant influence on the mechanical properties of rocks.To simplify the curved joint shapes in rocks,the joint shape is usually treated as straight lines or planes in most laboratory experiments and numerical simulations.In this study,the computerized tomography (CT) scanning and photogrammetry were employed to obtain the internal and surface joint structures of a limestone sample,respectively.To describe the joint geometry,the edge detection algorithms and a three-dimensional (3D) matrix mapping method were applied to reconstruct CT-based and photogrammetry-based jointed rock models.For comparison tests,the numerical uniaxial compression tests were conducted on an intact rock sample and a sample with a joint simplified to a plane using the parallel computing method.The results indicate that the mechanical characteristics and failure process of jointed rocks are significantly affected by the geometry of joints.The presence of joints reduces the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS),elastic modulus,and released acoustic emission (AE) energy of rocks by 37%–67%,21%–24%,and 52%–90%,respectively.Compared to the simplified joint sample,the proposed photogrammetry-based numerical model makes the most of the limited geometry information of joints.The UCS,accumulative released AE energy,and elastic modulus of the photogrammetry-based sample were found to be very close to those of the CT-based sample.The UCS value of the simplified joint sample (i.e.38.5 MPa) is much lower than that of the CT-based sample (i.e.72.3 MPa).Additionally,the accumulative released AE energy observed in the simplified joint sample is 3.899 times lower than that observed in the CT-based sample.CT scanning provides a reliable means to visualize the joints in rocks,which can be used to verify the reliability of photogrammetry techniques.The application of the photogrammetry-based sample enables detailed analysis for estimating the mechanical properties of jointed rocks.

A multi-mechanism numerical simulation model for CO_(2)-EOR and storage in fractured shale oil reservoirs

Under the policy background and advocacy of carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS),CO_(2)-EOR has become a promising direction in the shale oil reservoir industry.The multi-scale pore structure distribution and fracture structure lead to complex multiphase flow,comprehensively considering multiple mechanisms is crucial for development and CO_(2) storage in fractured shale reservoirs.In this paper,a multi-mechanism coupled model is developed by MATLAB.Compared to the traditional Eclipse300 and MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox(MRST),this model considers the impact of pore structure on fluid phase behavior by the modified Peng—Robinson equation of state(PR-EOS),and the effect simultaneously radiate to Maxwell—Stefan(M—S)diffusion,stress sensitivity,the nano-confinement(NC)effect.Moreover,a modified embedded discrete fracture model(EDFM)is used to model the complex fractures,which optimizes connection types and half-transmissibility calculation approaches between non-neighboring connections(NNCs).The full implicit equation adopts the finite volume method(FVM)and Newton—Raphson iteration for discretization and solution.The model verification with the Eclipse300 and MRST is satisfactory.The results show that the interaction between the mechanisms significantly affects the production performance and storage characteristics.The effect of molecular diffusion may be overestimated in oil-dominated(liquid-dominated)shale reservoirs.The well spacing and injection gas rate are the most crucial factors affecting the production by sensitivity analysis.Moreover,the potential gas invasion risk is mentioned.This model provides a reliable theoretical basis for CO_(2)-EOR and sequestration in shale oil reservoirs.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).