Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Analysis of Secured Cloud Data Storage Model for Information

This paper was motivated by the existing problems of Cloud Data storage in Imo State University, Nigeria such as outsourced data causing the loss of data and misuse of customer information by unauthorized users or hackers, thereby making customer/client data visible and unprotected. Also, this led to enormous risk of the clients/customers due to defective equipment, bugs, faulty servers, and specious actions. The aim if this paper therefore is to analyze a secure model using Unicode Transformation Format (UTF) base 64 algorithms for storage of data in cloud securely. The methodology used was Object Orientated Hypermedia Analysis and Design Methodology (OOHADM) was adopted. Python was used to develop the security model;the role-based access control (RBAC) and multi-factor authentication (MFA) to enhance security Algorithm were integrated into the Information System developed with HTML 5, JavaScript, Cascading Style Sheet (CSS) version 3 and PHP7. This paper also discussed some of the following concepts;Development of Computing in Cloud, Characteristics of computing, Cloud deployment Model, Cloud Service Models, etc. The results showed that the proposed enhanced security model for information systems of cooperate platform handled multiple authorization and authentication menace, that only one login page will direct all login requests of the different modules to one Single Sign On Server (SSOS). This will in turn redirect users to their requested resources/module when authenticated, leveraging on the Geo-location integration for physical location validation. The emergence of this newly developed system will solve the shortcomings of the existing systems and reduce time and resources incurred while using the existing system.

The Cloud Model for Climate Change

In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a thermodynamic model based on the Greenhouse Effect, aiming to forecast global temperatures. This study delves into the intricacies of that model. Some interesting observations are revealed. The IPCC model equated average temperatures with average energy fluxes, which can cause significant errors. The model assumed that all energy fluxes remained constant, and the Earth emitted infrared radiation as if it were a blackbody. Neither of those conditions exists. The IPCC’s definition of Climate Change only includes events caused by human actions, excluding most causes. Satellite data aimed at the tops of clouds may have inferred a high Greenhouse Gas absorption flux. The model showed more energy coming from the atmosphere than absorbed from the sun, which may have caused a violation of the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. There were unexpectedly large gaps in the satellite data that aligned with various absorption bands of Greenhouse Gases, possibly caused by photon scattering associated with re-emissions. Based on science, we developed a cloud-based climate model that complied with the Radiation Laws and the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics. The Cloud Model showed that 81.3% of the outgoing reflected and infrared radiation was applicable to the clouds and water vapor. In comparison, the involvement of CO2 was only 0.04%, making it too minuscule to measure reliably.

Evaluation of toppling rock slopes using a composite cloud model with DEMATEL–CRITIC method

Safety evaluation of toppling rock slopes developing in reservoir areas is crucial. To reduce the uncertainty of safety evaluation, this study developed a composite cloud model, which improved the combination weights of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. A safety evaluation system was developed according to in situ monitoring data. The backward cloud generator was used to calculate the numerical characteristics of a cloud model of quantitative indices, and different virtual clouds were used to synthesize some clouds into a generalized one. The synthesized numerical characteristics were calculated to comprehensively evaluate the safety of toppling rock slopes. A case study of a toppling rock slope near the Huangdeng Hydropower Station in China was conducted using monitoring data collected since operation of the hydropower project began. The results indicated that the toppling rock slope was moderately safe with a low safety margin. The composite cloud model considers the fuzziness and randomness of safety evaluation and enables interchange between qualitative and quantitative knowledge. This study provides a new theoretical method for evaluating the safety of toppling rock slopes. It can aid in the predication, control, and even prevention of disasters.

Vulnerability assessment of coastal wetlands in Minjiang River Estuary based on cloud model under sea level rise

The change of coastal wetland vulnerability affects the ecological environment and the economic development of the estuary area.In the past,most of the assessment studies on the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems stayed in static qualitative research,lacking predictability,and the qualitative and quantitative relationship was not objective enough.In this study,the“Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence”model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability definition were used to analyze the main impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on coastal wetland ecosystem in Minjiang River Estuary.The results show that:(1)With the increase of time and carbon emission,the area of high vulnerability and the higher vulnerability increased continuously,and the area of low vulnerability and the lower vulnerability decreased.(2)The eastern and northeastern part of the Culu Island in the Minjiang River Estuary of Fujian Province and the eastern coastal wetland of Meihua Town in Changle District are areas with high vulnerability risk.The area of high vulnerability area of coastal wetland under high emission scenario is wider than that under low emission scenario.(3)Under different sea level rise scenarios,elevation has the greatest impact on the vulnerability of coastal wetlands,and slope has less impact.The impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetland ecosystem in the Minjiang River Estuary is mainly manifested in the sea level rise,which changes the habitat elevation and daily flooding time of coastal wetlands,and then affects the survival and distribution of coastal wetland ecosystems.

Safety Risk Assessment of Overturning Construction of Towering Structure Based on Cloud Matter–Element Coupled Model

Rapid urbanization has led to a surge in the number of towering structures,and overturning is widely used because it can better accommodate the construction of shaped structures such as variable sections.The complexity of the construction process makes the construction risk have certain randomness,so this paper proposes a cloudbased coupled matter-element model to address the ambiguity and randomness in the safety risk assessment of overturning construction of towering structures.In the pretended model,the digital eigenvalues of the cloud model are used to replace the eigenvalues in the matter–element basic element,and calculate the cloud correlation of the risk assessment metrics through the correlation algorithm of the cloud model to build the computational model.Meanwhile,the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model is used to determine the weight of the index.The comprehensive evaluation scores of the evaluation event are then obtained through the weighted average method,and the safety risk level is determined accordingly.Through empirical analysis,(1)the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model can incorporate the data of multiple decisionmakers into the calculation formula to determine theweights,which makes the assessment resultsmore credible;(2)the evaluation results of the cloud-basedmatter-element coupledmodelmethod are basically consistent with those of the other two commonly used methods,and the confidence factor is less than 0.05,indicating that the cloudbased physical element coupled model method is reasonable and practical for towering structure overturning;(3)the cloud-based coupled element model method,which confirms the reliability of risk level by performing Spearman correlation on comprehensive assessment scores,can provide more comprehensive information of instances compared with other methods,and more comprehensively reflects the fuzzy uncertainty relationship between assessment indexes,which makes the assessment results more realistic,scientific and reliable.

Modularized and Parametric Modeling Technology for Finite Element Simulations of Underground Engineering under Complicated Geological Conditions

The surrounding geological conditions and supporting structures of underground engineering are often updated during construction,and these updates require repeated numerical modeling.To improve the numerical modeling efficiency of underground engineering,a modularized and parametric modeling cloud server is developed by using Python codes.The basic framework of the cloud server is as follows:input the modeling parameters into the web platform,implement Rhino software and FLAC3D software to model and run simulations in the cloud server,and return the simulation results to the web platform.The modeling program can automatically generate instructions that can run the modeling process in Rhino based on the input modeling parameters.The main modules of the modeling program include modeling the 3D geological structures,the underground engineering structures,and the supporting structures as well as meshing the geometric models.In particular,various cross-sections of underground caverns are crafted as parametricmodules in themodeling program.Themodularized and parametric modeling program is used for a finite element simulation of the underground powerhouse of the Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station.This complicatedmodel is rapidly generated for the simulation,and the simulation results are reasonable.Thus,this modularized and parametric modeling program is applicable for three-dimensional finite element simulations and analyses.

Cloudless-Training:基于serverless的高效跨地域分布式ML训练框架

跨地域分布式机器学习(ML)训练能够联合多区域的云资源协作训练,可满足许多新兴ML场景(比如大型模型训练、联邦学习)的训练需求。但其训练效率仍受2方面挑战的制约。首先,多区域云资源缺乏有效的弹性调度,这会影响训练的资源利用率和性能;其次,模型跨地域同步需要在广域网(WAN)上高频通信,受WAN的低带宽和高波动的影响,会产生巨大通信开销。本文提出Cloudless-Training,从3个方面实现高效的跨地域分布式ML训练。首先,它基于serverless计算模式实现,使用控制层和训练执行层的2层架构,支持多云区域的弹性调度和通信。其次,它提供一种弹性调度策略,根据可用云资源的异构性和训练数据集的分布自适应地部署训练工作流。最后,它提供了2种高效的跨云同步策略,包括基于梯度累积的异步随机梯度下降(ASGD-GA)和跨云参数服务器(PS)间的模型平均(MA)。Cloudless-Training是基于OpenFaaS实现的,并被部署在腾讯云上评估,实验结果表明Cloudless-Training可显著地提高跨地域分布式ML训练的资源利用率(训练成本降低了9.2%~24.0%)和同步效率(训练速度最多比基线快1.7倍),并能保证模型的收敛精度。

基于CloudSim的电力系统计算云原生模型与仿真方法

分析基于云计算的电力系统计算过程是实现资源高效利用的基础。因此,提出一种基于CloudSim的电力系统计算的云原生建模与仿真方法。基于云原生技术阐述了电力系统计算架构的关键要素,提出基于CloudSim的电力系统计算架构的云原生模型,分析电力云任务调配时的资源供需平衡问题。建立基于微服务的电力云任务模型,分析微服务的处理时序逻辑及其层级关系并生成微服务队列。据此提出微服务的动态调配模型,采用微服务-容器映射策略与实体动态整合策略,实现微服务在实体间的动态映射。利用CloudSim进行仿真分析,结果证明所提方法可行且有效,可为电力云计算的资源配置、任务调度等提供基本的仿真工具与方法。

Prediction of rock burst classification using cloud model with entropy weight

The method of cloud model with entropy weight was adopted for the prediction of rock burst classification. Some main factors of rock burst including the uniaxial compressive strength （σc）, the tensile strength （σt）, the tangential stress （σθ）, the rock brittleness coefficient （σc/σt）, the stress coefficient （σθ /σc） and the elastic energy index （Wet） are chosen to establish evaluation index system. The entropy？cloud model and criterion are obtained through 209 sets of rock burst samples from underground rock projects. The sensitivity of indicators is analyzed and 209 sets of rock burst samples are discriminated by this model. The discriminant results of the entropy-cloud model are compared with those of Bayes, KNN and RF methods. The results show that the sensitivity order of those factors from high to low is σ_θ /σ_c, σ_θ, W_（ct）, σ_c/σ_t, σ_t, σ_c, and the entropy-cloud model has higher accuracy than Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm （KNN） and Random Forest （RF） methods.

Expressway traffic flow prediction using chaos cloud particle swarm algorithm and PPPR model

Aiming at the real-time fluctuation and nonlinear characteristics of the expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting the parameter projection pursuit regression PPPR model is applied to forecast the expressway traffic flow where the orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit the ridge functions and the least square method is employed to determine the polynomial weight coefficient c.In order to efficiently optimize the projection direction a and the number M of ridge functions of the PPPR model the chaos cloud particle swarm optimization CCPSO algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters. The CCPSO-PPPR hybrid optimization model for expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting is established in which the CCPSO algorithm is used to optimize the optimal projection direction a in the inner layer while the number M of ridge functions is optimized in the outer layer.Traffic volume weather factors and travel date of the previous several time intervals of the road section are taken as the input influencing factors. Example forecasting and model comparison results indicate that the proposed model can obtain a better forecasting effect and its absolute error is controlled within [-6,6] which can meet the application requirements of expressway traffic flow forecasting.

Data classification method based on network dynamics analysis and cloud model

In order to reduce amount of data storage and improve processing capacity of the system, this paper proposes a new classification method of data source by combining phase synchronization model in network clustering with cloud model. Firstly, taking data source as a complex network, after the topography of network is obtained, the cloud model of each node data is determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Secondly, by calculating expectation, entropy and hyper entropy of the cloud model, comprehensive coupling strength is got and then it is regarded as the edge weight of topography. Finally, distribution curve is obtained by iterating the phase of each node by means of phase synchronization model. Thus classification of data source is completed. This method can not only provide convenience for storage, cleaning and compression of data, but also improve the efficiency of data analysis.

基于Cloud Model的大学生毕业质量评分模型的研究

毕业生质量的评价模型应该是动态的、分层次的、多属性的,这样才能给高校教学工作者和管理层提供更加全面和及时的反馈信息,从而更好的推动高等学校人才的培养。本文在已有的评测模型的基础上,引入相对全面的评价指标体系,对测试过程进行系统开发,最后以某届毕业生的评测过程为例,以验证评价模型和系统的正确性、稳定性。

Cloud-Verhulst hybrid prediction model for dam deformation under uncertain conditions

Uncertainties existing in the process of dam deformation negatively influence deformation prediction. However, existing deformation pre- diction models seldom consider uncertainties. In this study, a cloud-Verhulst hybrid prediction model was established by combing a cloud model with the Verhulst model. The expectation, one of the cloud characteristic parameters, was obtained using the Verhulst model, and the other two cloud characteristic parameters, entropy and hyper-entropy, were calculated by introducing inertia weight. The hybrid prediction model was used to predict the dam deformation in a hydroelectric project. Comparison of the prediction results of the hybrid prediction model with those of a traditional statistical model and the monitoring values shows that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional sta- tistical model. It provides a new approach to predicting dam deformation under uncertain conditions.

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province based on a cloud model

With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2000 based on a cloud model. The spatial variation of the temporal distribution characteristics and the temporal variation of the spatial distribution characteristics were both analyzed. In addition, the relationships between the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation were also studied. The results show that, using a cloud model, it is possible to intuitively describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in cloud images. Water resources in Guangdong Province and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are differentiated by their geographic locations. Downstream and coastal areas have a larger amount of water resources with greater uniformity and stronger stability in terms of temporal distribution. Regions with more precipitation possess larger amounts of water resources, and years with more precipitation show greater nonuniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources. The correlation between the nonuniformity of the temporal distribution and local precipitation is small, and no correlation is found between the stability of the nonuniformity of the temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation. The amount of water resources in Guangdong Province shows an increasing trend from 1956 to 2000, the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources declines, and the stability of the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources is enhanced.

Mining Weights of Land Evaluation Factors Based on Cloud Model and Correlation Analysis

The veracity of land evaluation is tightly related to the reasonable weights of land evaluation fac- tors. By mapping qualitative linguistic words into a fine-changeable cloud drops and translating the uncertain factor conditions into quantitative values with the uncertain illation based on cloud model, and then, inte- grating correlation analysis, a new way of figuring out the weight of land evaluation factors is proposed. It may solve the limitations of the conventional ways.

Application of uncertainty reasoning based on cloud model in time series prediction

Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.

Cloud model-clustering analysis based evaluation for ventilation system of underground metal mine in alpine region

Ventilation system is significant in underground metal mine of alpine region.Reasonable evaluation of ventilation effectiveness will lead to a practical improvement for the maintenance and management of ventilation system.However,it is difficult to make an effective evaluation of ventilation system due to the lack of classification criteria with respect to underground metal mine in alpine region.This paper proposes a novel evaluation method called the cloud model-clustering analysis(CMCA).Cloud model(CM)is utilized to process collected data of ventilation system,and they are converted into cloud descriptors by CM.Cloud similarity(CS)based Euclidean distance(ED)is proposed to make clustering analysis of assessed samples.Then the classification of assessed samples will be identified by clustering analysis results.A case study is developed based on CMCA.Evaluation results show that ventilation effectiveness can be well classified.Moreover,CM is used alone to make comparison of evaluation results obtained by CMCA.Then the availability and validity of CMCA is verified.Meanwhile,difference of CS based ED and classical ED is analyzed.Two new clustering analysis methods are introduced to make comparison with CMCA.Then the ability of proposed CMCA to meet evaluation requirements of ventilation system is verified.

Risk management for mine closure: A cloud model and hybrid semi-quantitative decision method

Mine closure is associated with many negative impacts on society and the environment.If these effects are not rationally addressed,they would pose risks of mine closure.Thus,a risk management method is needed to mitigate these adverse impacts and address mine-closure issues.An integral framework for mine-closure risk management that includes risk assessment and risk treatment was proposed.Given the fuzziness and randomness of the transformation between qualitative and quantitative knowledge in the risk assessment process,a novel risk assessment method based on the cloud model was presented,which fully considers the uncertainty in risks themselves and in the reasoning process.Closed mine reutilization is an effective risk treatment option in response to the identified high risks,but it requires selecting optimal reutilization strategies for the successful implementation of the reuse plan.To this end,a hybrid semi-quantitative decision method is proposed to optimize decision-making.The results of a case study showed that this risk management methodology can help budget planning for risk treatment and provide an instructional framework to effectively reduce the negative effects of closed mines.

Synchro-control of Twin-rudder with Cloud Model

In ships having two rudders, an angle error exists if there is a difference in structural and electrical parameters in two steering gear systems. Such an error also results in reduced efficiency of ship maneuverability during navigation. For the sake of reducing the angle error, a synchro-ballistic control approach based on cloud model is proposed in this paper. First, the mechanism model of steering gear system is introduced. Second, the structure of synchro-control system of twin-rudder is proposed based on the master-slave control strategy. Third, synchro-ballistic controller based on cloud model is designed to solve the nonlinearity and uncertainty of system. Finally, the designed controller is tested via simulation under two different situations. The simulated results demonstrate that this method is simple and has stronger robustness against the variation of states and parameters of plants. Hence, the validity and reliability of the method is proved for synchro-control of two rudders, which is a significant engineering application.