Remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear random coefficient regression model with fusing failure time data

Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.

Entropy weight coefficient model and its application in evaluation of groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain

The research of groundwater vulnerability is the basic work to protect the groundwater. For utilizing groundwater resource continuably, groundwater vulnerability evaluation is necessary. Useful reference to protect, exploit and utilize on groundwater resource are provided rationally. According to the real condition of Sanjiang Plain, the indexes system is established based on the traditional DRASTIC model. The new system includes the following seven indexes： Depth of Water, Net Recharge, Aquifer Media, Soil Media, Conductivity of the Aquifer, Land Utilizing Ratio and Populace Density. The related analysis appears that the system is rather reasonable. Because traditional methods, such as analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory, can＇t be avoided human interference in selection of weights, they could lead to an imprecise result. In order to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability reasonably, entropy weight coefficient method is applied for the first time, which provides a new way to groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The method is a model whose weights are insured by the calculation process, so the artificial disturb can be avoided. It has been used to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability in Sanjiang Plain. The satisfied result is acquired. Comparably, the same result is acquired by the other method named projection pursuit evaluation based on real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm. It shows that entropy weight coefficient method is applicable on groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The evaluation result can provide reference on the decision-making departments.

THEORETICAL MODEL OF EFFECTIVE STRESS COEFFICIENT FOR ROCK/SOIL-LIKE POROUS MATERIALS

Physical mechanisms and influencing factors on the effective stress coefficient for rock/soil-like porous materials are investigated, based on which equivalent connectivity index is proposed. The equivalent connectivity index, relying on the meso-scale structure of porous material and the property of liquid, denotes the connectivity of pores in Representative Element Area （REA）. If the conductivity of the porous material is anisotropic, the equivalent connectivity index is a second order tensor. Based on the basic theories of continuous mechanics and tensor analysis, relationship between area porosity and volumetric porosity of porous materials is deduced. Then a generalized expression, describing the relation between effective stress coefficient tensor and equivalent connectivity tensor of pores, is proposed, and the expression can be applied to isotropic media and also to anisotropic materials. Furthermore, evolution of porosity and equivalent connectivity index of the pore are studied in the strain space, and the method to determine the corresponding functions in expressions above is proposed using genetic algorithm and genetic programming. Two applications show that the results obtained by the method in this paper perfectly agree with the test data. This paper provides an important theoretical support to the coupled hydro-mechanical research.

Temperature field model in surface grinding: a comparative assessment

Grinding is a crucial process in machining workpieces because it plays a vital role in achieving the desired precision and surface quality.However,a significant technical challenge in grinding is the potential increase in temperature due to high specific energy,which can lead to surface thermal damage.Therefore,ensuring control over the surface integrity of workpieces during grinding becomes a critical concern.This necessitates the development of temperature field models that consider various parameters,such as workpiece materials,grinding wheels,grinding parameters,cooling methods,and media,to guide industrial production.This study thoroughly analyzes and summarizes grinding temperature field models.First,the theory of the grinding temperature field is investigated,classifying it into traditional models based on a continuous belt heat source and those based on a discrete heat source,depending on whether the heat source is uniform and continuous.Through this examination,a more accurate grinding temperature model that closely aligns with practical grinding conditions is derived.Subsequently,various grinding thermal models are summarized,including models for the heat source distribution,energy distribution proportional coefficient,and convective heat transfer coefficient.Through comprehensive research,the most widely recognized,utilized,and accurate model for each category is identified.The application of these grinding thermal models is reviewed,shedding light on the governing laws that dictate the influence of the heat source distribution,heat distribution,and convective heat transfer in the grinding arc zone on the grinding temperature field.Finally,considering the current issues in the field of grinding temperature,potential future research directions are proposed.The aim of this study is to provide theoretical guidance and technical support for predicting workpiece temperature and improving surface integrity.

Efficient Shrinkage Estimation about the Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Model with Random Effect for Longitudinal Data

In this paper, an efficient shrinkage estimation procedure for the partially linear varying coefficient model (PLVC) with random effect is considered. By selecting the significant variable and estimating the nonzero coefficient, the model structure specification is accomplished by introducing a novel penalized estimating equation. Under some mild conditions, the asymptotic properties for the proposed model selection and estimation results, such as the sparsity and oracle property, are established. Some numerical simulation studies and a real data analysis are presented to examine the finite sample performance of the procedure.

A High-Order Conservative Numerical Method for Gross-Pitaevskii Equation with Time-Varying Coefficients in Modeling BEC

We propose a high-order conservative method for the nonlinear Sehodinger/Gross-Pitaevskii equation with time- varying coefficients in modeling Bose Einstein condensation （BEC）. This scheme combined with the sixth-order compact finite difference method and the fourth-order average vector field method, finely describes the condensate wave function and physical characteristics in some small potential wells. Numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate that our numerical scheme is efficient by the comparison with the Fourier pseudo-spectral method. Moreover, it preserves several conservation laws well and even exactly under some specific conditions.

Quasi Maximum Likelihood for MESS Varying Coefficient Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects

The study of spatial econometrics has developed rapidly and has found wide applications in many different scientific fields,such as demog­raphy,epidemiology,regional economics,and psychology.With the deepening of research,some scholars find that there are some model specifications in spatial econometrics,such as spatial autoregressive(SAR)model and matrix exponential spatial specification(MESS),which cannot be nested within each other.Compared with the common SAR models,the MESS models have computational advantages because it eliminates the need for logarithmic determinant calculation in maxi­mum likelihood estimation and Bayesian estimation.Meanwhile,MESS models have theoretical advantages.However,the theoretical research and application of MESS models have not been promoted vigorously.Therefore,the study of MESS model theory has practical significance.This paper studies the quasi maximum likelihood estimation for ma­trix exponential spatial specification(MESS)varying coefficient panel data models with fixed effects.It is shown that the estimators of model parameters and function coefficients satisfy the consistency and asymp­totic normality to make a further supplement for the theoretical study of MESS model.

Asymptotic Inference in the Random Coefficient Autoregressive Model with Time-functional Variance Noises

This paper considers the random coefficient autoregressive model with time-functional variance noises,hereafter the RCA-TFV model.We first establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the conditional least squares estimator for the constant coefficient.The semiparametric least squares estimator for the variance of the random coefficient and the nonparametric estimator for the variance function are constructed,and their asymptotic results are reported.A simulation study is presented along with an analysis of real data to assess the performance of our method in finite samples.

Abnormal Behavior Detection and Recognition Method Based on Improved ResNet Model

The core technology in an intelligent video surveillance system is that detecting and recognizing abnormal behaviors timely and accurately.The key breakthrough point in recognizing abnormal behaviors is how to obtain the effective features of the picture,so as to solve the problem of recognizing them.In response to this difficulty,this paper introduces an adjustable jump link coefficients model based on the residual network.The effective coefficients for each layer of the network can be set after using this model to further improving the recognition accuracy of abnormal behavior.A convolution kernel of 1×1 size is added to reduce the number of parameters for the purpose of improving the speed of the model in this paper.In order to reduce the noise of the data edge,and at the same time,improve the accuracy of the data and speed up the training,a BN(Batch Normalization)layer is added before the activation function in this network.This paper trains this network model on the public ImageNet dataset,and then uses the transfer learning method to recognize these abnormal behaviors of human in the UTI behavior dataset processed by the YOLO_v3 target detection network.Under the same experimental conditions,compared with the original ResNet-50 model,the improved model in this paper has a 2.8%higher accuracy in recognition of abnormal behaviors on the public UTI dataset.

Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

Background： Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height （dbh） can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter （h-d） models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods： We develop unconstrained generalized additive models （GAM） and shape constrained generalized additive models （SCAM） for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results： Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand, The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface fitting. Conclusions： We demonstrate that the SCAM approach allows optimal regression modelling flexibility similar to the standard GAM but with the additional possibility of defining specific constraints for the model effects. The longitudinal character of the model allows for tree height imputation for the current status of forests but also for future tree height prediction.

Static analysis of ultra-thin beams based on a semi-continuum model

A linear semi-continuum model with discrete atomic layers in the thickness direction was developed to investigate the bending behaviors of ultra-thin beams with nanoscale thickness.The theoretical results show that the deflection of an ultra-thin beam may be enhanced or reduced due to different relaxation coefficients.If the relaxation coefficient is greater/less than one,the deflection of micro/nano-scale structures is enhanced/reduced in comparison with macro-scale structures.So,two opposite types of size-dependent behaviors are observed and they are mainly caused by the relaxation coefficients.Comparisons with the classical continuum model,exact nonlocal stress model and finite element model （FEM） verify the validity of the present semi-continuum model.In particular,an explanation is proposed in the debate whether the bending stiffness of a micro/nano-scale beam should be greater or weaker as compared with the macro-scale structures.The characteristics of bending stiffness are proved to be associated with the relaxation coefficients.

Compressed wormlike chain moving out of confined space: A model of DNA ejection from bacteriophage

The molecular biomechanics of DNA ejection from bacteriophage is of interest to not only fundamental biological understandings but also practical applications such as the design of advanced site-specific and controllable drug delivery systems. In this paper, we analyze the viscous motion of a semiflexible polymer chain coming out of a strongly confined space as a model to investigate the effects of various structure confinements and frictional resistances encountered during the DNA ejection process. The theoretically predicted relations between the ejection speed, ejection time, ejection length, and other physical parameters, such as the phage type, total genome length and ionic state of external buffer solutions, show excellent agreement with in vitro experimental observations in the literature.

A theoretical model of collision between soft-spheres with Hertz elastic loading and nonlinear plastic unloading

This paper presents a theoretical model on the normal(head-on) collision between soft-spheres on the basis of elastic loading of the Hertz contact for compression process and a nonlinear plastic unloading for restitution one,in which the parameters all are determined in terms of the material and geometric ones of the spheres,and the behaviors of perfect elastic,inelastic,and perfect plastic collisions appeared in the classical mechanics are fully described once a value of coefficient of restitution is specified in the region of 0 ≤ ε ≤ 1.After an empirical formula of the coefficient of restitution dependent on the impact velocity is suggested to fit the existing experimental measurements by means of the least square method,the predictions of the dependency and the collision duration are in well quantitative agreement with their experimental measurements.It is found that the measurable quantities are dependent on both the impact velocity and the parameters of spheres.Following this model,finally,an approach to determine the spring coefficient in the linear viscoelastic model of the collision is also displayed.These results obtained here will be significantly beneficial for the applications where a collision model is requested in the simulations of relevant grain flows and impact dynamics etc..

TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION IN DISCRETE EXPONENTIAL FAMILY NONLINEAR MODELS

It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models.This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed.Two types of varying dispersion,which are random coefficients model and random effects model,are proposed,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple,easy to use,matrix formulas.

Unified Variable Selection for Varying Coefficient Models with Longitudinal Data

Variable selection for varying coefficient models includes the separation of varying and constant effects,and the selection of variables with nonzero varying effects and those with nonzero constant effects.This paper proposes a unified variable selection approach called the double-penalized quadratic inference functions method for varying coefficient models of longitudinal data.The proposed method can not only separate varying coefficients and constant coefficients,but also estimate and select the nonzero varying coefficients and nonzero constant coefficients.It is suitable for variable selection of linear models,varying coefficient models,and partial linear varying coefficient models.Under regularity conditions,the proposed method is consistent in both separation and selection of varying coefficients and constant coefficients.The obtained estimators of varying coefficients possess the optimal convergence rate of non-parametric function estimation,and the estimators of nonzero constant coefficients are consistent and asymptotically normal.Finally,the authors investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed method through simulation studies and a real data analysis.The results show that the proposed method performs better than the existing competitor.

Variable Selection for Fixed Effects Varying Coefficient Models

We consider the problem of variable selection for the fixed effects varying coefficient models. A variable selection procedure is developed using basis function approximations and group nonconcave penalized functions, and the fixed effects are removed using the proper weight matrices. The proposed procedure simultaneously removes the fixed individual effects, selects the significant variables and estimates the nonzero coefficient functions. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, an asymptotic theory for the resulting estimates is established under suitable conditions. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of our proposed method, and a real data set is analyzed for further illustration.

Instrumental Variable Type Estimation for Generalized Varying Coefficient Models with Error-Prone Covariates

In this paper,the estimation for a class of generalized varying coefficient models with error-prone covariates is considered.By combining basis function approximations with some auxiliary variables,an instrumental variable type estimation procedure is proposed.The asymptotic results of the estimator,such as the consistency and the weak convergence rate,are obtained.The proposed procedure can attenuate the effect of measurement errors and have proved workable for finite samples.

Using a process-oriented methodology to precisely evaluate temperature suitability for potato growth in China using GIS

A process-oriented methodology to conduct precise evaluation temporally and spatially on temperature suitability for potato growth was applied in China. Arable lands in China were gridded with 1 km×1 km geographic units, and potential potato phenology in each unit was automatically identified in terms of the potato planting initial temperature and effective accu- mulated temperature. A temperature thermal response coefficient model was used to compute a temperature suitability value for each day of potato phenology in each geographic unit. In addition, five temperature suitability ranking methods were applied to define suitable areas： （1） upper fourth quantile, （2） median, （3） expected value＋1/4 standard deviation, （4） expected value＋1/2 standard deviation, （5） expected value＋1 standard deviation. A validation indicator was innovated to test the effectiveness of the five ranking methods. The results showed that from a strict degree point of view, the five methods sequence was as follows： 1=3〉4〉2〉5, with a and c determined as the two best ranking methods. For methods 1 and 3, the suitable potato growing area was 1 of 57.76× 10^4 km2. In addition, the suitable, areas were spatially coincident with the main potato producing counties. The study output technically supports the proposal from China＇s government that there is a large potential area to grow winter-ploughed potato in South China because the potential suitable area for growing potato is approximately 2×10^7 ha. In southeast Heilongjiang and east Jilin, where it is hilly and mountainous, there are still some potentially suitable areas for potato growing accounting for nearly 2.32×10^6 ha. The authors suggest to optimize the agricultural regionalization and layout in China and to adjust the cropping pattern structure.

Estimation of Semi-Varying Coefficient Model with Surrogate Data and Validation Sampling

In this paper, we investigate the estimation of semi-varying coefficient models when the nonlinear covariates are prone to measurement error. With the help of validation sampling, we propose two estimators of the parameter and the coefficient functions by combining dimension reduction and the profile likelihood methods without any error structure equation specification or error distribution assumption. We establish the asymptotic normality of proposed estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts and show that the proposed estimators achieves the best convergence rate. Data-driven bandwidth selection methods are also discussed. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample property of the estimation methods proposed.