Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model o...Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in<sup>2</sup>/s for humidity, 2.993 in<sup>2</sup>/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .展开更多
The objective of this research was to determine the mechanical parameter from EVA foam and also investigate its behavior by using Blatz-Ko,Neo-Hookean,Mooney model and experimental test.The physical characteristic of ...The objective of this research was to determine the mechanical parameter from EVA foam and also investigate its behavior by using Blatz-Ko,Neo-Hookean,Mooney model and experimental test.The physical characteristic of EVA foam was also evaluated by scanning electron microscopy(SEM).The results show that Blatz-Ko and Neo-Hookean model can fit the curve at 5%and 8%strain,respectively.The Mooney model can fit the curve at 50%strain.The modulus of rigidity evaluated from Mooney model is 0.0814±0.0027 MPa.The structure of EVA foam from SEM image shows that EVA structure is a closed cell with homogeneous porous structure.From the result,it is found that Mooney model can adjust the data better than other models.This model can be applied for mechanical response prediction of EVA foam and also for reference value in engineering application.展开更多
This paper describes an extension and a new foundation of the Standard Model of particle physics based on a SU(4)-force called hyper-color, and on preon subparticles. The hyper-color force is a generalization of the S...This paper describes an extension and a new foundation of the Standard Model of particle physics based on a SU(4)-force called hyper-color, and on preon subparticles. The hyper-color force is a generalization of the SU(2)-based weak interaction and the SU(1)-based right-chiral self-interaction, in which the W-and the Z-bosons are Yukawa residual-field-carriers of the hyper-color force, in the same sense as the pions are the residual-field-carriers of the color SU(3) interaction. Using the method of numerical minimization of the SU(4)-action based on this model, the masses and the inner structure of leptons, quarks and weak bosons are calculated: the mass results are very close to the experimental values. We calculate also precisely the value of the Cabibbo angle, so the mixing matrices of the Standard model, CKM matrix for quarks and PMNS matrix for neutrinos can also be calculated. In total, we reduce the 29 parameters of the Standard Model to a total of 7 parameters.展开更多
安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
Knowledge of which biological and functional traits have,or lack,phylogenetic signal in a particular group of organisms is important to understanding the formation and functioning of biological communities.Allometric ...Knowledge of which biological and functional traits have,or lack,phylogenetic signal in a particular group of organisms is important to understanding the formation and functioning of biological communities.Allometric biomass models reflecting tree growth characteristics are commonly used to predict forest biomass.However,few studies have examined whether model parameters are constrained by phylogeny.Here,we use a comprehensive database(including 276 tree species) compiled from 894 allometric biomass models published in 302 articles to examine whether parameters a and b of the model W=aD~b(where W stands for aboveground biomass,D is diameter at breast height) exhibit phylogenetic signal for all tree species as a whole and for different groups of tree species.For either model parameter,we relate difference in model parameter between different tree species to phylogenetic distance and to environmental distance between pairwise sites.Our study shows that neither model parameter exhibits phylogenetic signals(Pagel's λ and Blomberg's K both approach zero).This is the case regardless of whether all tree species in our data set were analyzed as a whole or tree species in different taxonomic groups(gymnosperm and angiosperm),leaf duration groups(evergreen and deciduous),or ecological groups(tropical,temperate and boreal) were analyzed separately.Our study also shows that difference in each parameter of the allometric biomass model is not significantly related to phylogenetic and environmental distances between tree species in different sites.展开更多
A comparison between deep learning and standalone models in predicting the compaction parameters of soil is presented in this research.One hundred and ninety and fifty-three soil samples were randomly picked up from t...A comparison between deep learning and standalone models in predicting the compaction parameters of soil is presented in this research.One hundred and ninety and fifty-three soil samples were randomly picked up from two hundred and forty-three soil samples to create training and validation datasets,respectively.The performance and accuracy of the models were measured by root mean square error(RMSE),coefficient of determination(R2),Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient(r),mean absolute error(MAE),variance accounted for(VAF),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),weighted mean absolute percentage error(WMAPE),a20-index,index of scatter(IOS),and index of agreement(IOA).Comparisons between standalone models demonstrate that the model MD 29 in Gaussian process regression(GPR)and model MD 101 in support vector machine(SVM)can achieve over 96%of accuracy in predicting the optimum moisture content(OMC)and maximum dry density(MDD)of soil,and outperformed other standalone models.The comparison between deep learning models shows that the models MD 46 and MD 146 in long short-term memory(LSTM)predict OMC and MDD with higher accuracy than ANN models.However,the LSTM models outperformed the GPR models in predicting the compaction parameters.The sensitivity analysis illustrates that fine content(FC),specific gravity(SG),and liquid limit(LL)highly influence the prediction of compaction parameters.展开更多
This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemi...This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.展开更多
Typically,a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected.It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses,suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet.T...Typically,a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected.It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses,suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet.To understand the dynamics of the virus propagation in a better way,a computer virus spread model with fuzzy parameters is presented in this work.It is assumed that all infected computers do not have the same contribution to the virus transmission process and each computer has a different degree of infectivity,which depends on the quantity of virus.Considering this,the parametersβandγbeing functions of the computer virus load,are considered fuzzy numbers.Using fuzzy theory helps us understand the spread of computer viruses more realistically as these parameters have fixed values in classical models.The essential features of the model,like reproduction number and equilibrium analysis,are discussed in fuzzy senses.Moreover,with fuzziness,two numerical methods,the forward Euler technique,and a nonstandard finite difference(NSFD)scheme,respectively,are developed and analyzed.In the evidence of the numerical simulations,the proposed NSFD method preserves the main features of the dynamic system.It can be considered a reliable tool to predict such types of solutions.展开更多
Model parameters estimation is a pivotal issue for runoff modeling in ungauged catchments.The nonlinear relationship between model parameters and catchment descriptors is a major obstacle for parameter regionalization...Model parameters estimation is a pivotal issue for runoff modeling in ungauged catchments.The nonlinear relationship between model parameters and catchment descriptors is a major obstacle for parameter regionalization,which is the most widely used approach.Runoff modeling was studied in 38 catchments located in the Yellow–Huai–Hai River Basin(YHHRB).The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE),coefficient of determination(R2),and percent bias(PBIAS)indicated the acceptable performance of the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model in the YHHRB.Nine descriptors belonging to the categories of climate,soil,vegetation,and topography were used to express the catchment characteristics related to the hydrological processes.The quantitative relationships between the parameters of the SWAT model and the catchment descriptors were analyzed by six regression-based models,including linear regression(LR)equations,support vector regression(SVR),random forest(RF),k-nearest neighbor(kNN),decision tree(DT),and radial basis function(RBF).Each of the 38 catchments was assumed to be an ungauged catchment in turn.Then,the parameters in each target catchment were estimated by the constructed regression models based on the remaining 37 donor catchments.Furthermore,the similaritybased regionalization scheme was used for comparison with the regression-based approach.The results indicated that the runoff with the highest accuracy was modeled by the SVR-based scheme in ungauged catchments.Compared with the traditional LR-based approach,the accuracy of the runoff modeling in ungauged catchments was improved by the machine learning algorithms because of the outstanding capability to deal with nonlinear relationships.The performances of different approaches were similar in humid regions,while the advantages of the machine learning techniques were more evident in arid regions.When the study area contained nested catchments,the best result was calculated with the similarity-based parameter regionalization scheme because of the high catchment density and short spatial distance.The new findings could improve flood forecasting and water resources planning in regions that lack observed data.展开更多
We discuss formulas and techniques for finding maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of autoregressive (with particular emphasis on Markov and Yule) models, computing their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix ...We discuss formulas and techniques for finding maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of autoregressive (with particular emphasis on Markov and Yule) models, computing their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and displaying the resulting confidence regions;Monte Carlo simulation is then used to establish the accuracy of the corresponding level of confidence. The results indicate that a direct application of the Central Limit Theorem yields errors too large to be acceptable;instead, we recommend using a technique based directly on the natural logarithm of the likelihood function, verifying its substantially higher accuracy. Our study is then extended to the case of estimating only a subset of a model’s parameters, when the remaining ones (called nuisance) are of no interest to us.展开更多
Structural damage is significantly influenced by the various parameters of a close-in explosion.To establish a close-in blast loading model for cylindrical charges according to these parameters,a series of field exper...Structural damage is significantly influenced by the various parameters of a close-in explosion.To establish a close-in blast loading model for cylindrical charges according to these parameters,a series of field experiments and a systematic numerical analysis were conducted.A high-fidelity finite element model developed using AUTODYN was first validated using blast data collected from field tests conducted in this and previous studies.A quantitative analysis was then performed to determine the influence of the charge shape,aspect ratio(length to diameter),orientation,and detonation configuration on the characteristics and distributions of the blast loading(incident peak overpressure and impulse)according to scaled distance.The results revealed that the secondary peak overpressure generated by a cylindrical charge was mainly distributed along the axial direction and was smaller than the overpressure generated by an equivalent spherical charge.The effects of charge shape on the blast loading at 45°and 67.5°in the axial plane could be neglected at scaled distances greater than 2 m/kg^(1/3);the effect of aspect ratios greater than 2 on the peak overpressure in the 90°(radial)direction could be neglected at all scaled distances;and double-end detonation increased the radial blast loading by up to 60%compared to singleend detonation.Finally,an empirical cylindrical charge blast loading model was developed considering the influences of charge aspect ratio,orientation,and detonation configuration.The results obtained in this study can serve as a reference for the design of blast tests using cylindrical charges and aid engineers in the design of blast-resistant structures.展开更多
The effects of the milling parameters involving shape of powder particles, rotation speed, and ball-to-powder diameter (BPDR) on DEM modeling in the planetary ball mill were investigated. BPDR was varied from 1 to 10....The effects of the milling parameters involving shape of powder particles, rotation speed, and ball-to-powder diameter (BPDR) on DEM modeling in the planetary ball mill were investigated. BPDR was varied from 1 to 10. The results revealed that the size and shape of the powder particles do not give a significant change in simulation results when BPDR attains maximum value of 10. The increasing of BPDR leads to the increase of simulation time and size. Hence, the effect of change of the powder particle shape on the calculated data size is not significant. The results also revealed that the increasing rotation speed increases impact energy between powder particles.展开更多
Clastic rock reservoir is the main reservoir type in the oil and gas field.Archie formula or various conductive models developed on the basis of Archie’s formula are usually used to interpret this kind of reservoir,a...Clastic rock reservoir is the main reservoir type in the oil and gas field.Archie formula or various conductive models developed on the basis of Archie’s formula are usually used to interpret this kind of reservoir,and the three-water model is widely used as well.However,there are many parameters in the threewater model,and some of them are difficult to determine.Most of the determination methods are based on the statistics of large amount of experimental data.In this study,the authors determine the value of the parameters of the new three-water model based on the nuclear magnetic data and the genetic optimization algorithm.The relative error between the resistivity calculated based on these parameters and the resistivity measured experimentally at 100%water content is 0.9024.The method studied in this paper can be easily applied without much experimental data.It can provide reference for other regions to determine the parameters of the new three-water model.展开更多
Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,...Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.展开更多
Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnectio...Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.展开更多
Estimation of construction parameters is crucial for optimizing tunnel construction schedule.Due to the influence of routine activities and occasional risk events,these parameters are usually correlated and imbalanced...Estimation of construction parameters is crucial for optimizing tunnel construction schedule.Due to the influence of routine activities and occasional risk events,these parameters are usually correlated and imbalanced.To solve this issue,an improved bidirectional generative adversarial network(BiGAN)model with a joint discriminator structure and zero-centered gradient penalty(0-GP)is proposed.In this model,in order to improve the capability of original BiGAN in learning imbalanced parameters,the joint discriminator separately discriminates the routine activities and risk event durations to balance their influence weights.Then,the self-attention mechanism is embedded so that the discriminator can pay more attention to the imbalanced parameters.Finally,the 0-GP is adapted for the loss of the discrimi-nator to improve its convergence and stability.A case study of a tunnel in China shows that the improved BiGAN can obtain parameter estimates consistent with the classical Gauss mixture model,without the need of tedious and complex correlation analysis.The proposed joint discriminator can increase the ability of BiGAN in estimating imbalanced construction parameters,and the 0-GP can ensure the stability and convergence of the model.展开更多
文摘Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in<sup>2</sup>/s for humidity, 2.993 in<sup>2</sup>/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .
基金supported by grants funded by Department of Mechanical Engineering,Faculty of Engineering,Chiang Mai University and the Graduate School of Chiang Mai University.
文摘The objective of this research was to determine the mechanical parameter from EVA foam and also investigate its behavior by using Blatz-Ko,Neo-Hookean,Mooney model and experimental test.The physical characteristic of EVA foam was also evaluated by scanning electron microscopy(SEM).The results show that Blatz-Ko and Neo-Hookean model can fit the curve at 5%and 8%strain,respectively.The Mooney model can fit the curve at 50%strain.The modulus of rigidity evaluated from Mooney model is 0.0814±0.0027 MPa.The structure of EVA foam from SEM image shows that EVA structure is a closed cell with homogeneous porous structure.From the result,it is found that Mooney model can adjust the data better than other models.This model can be applied for mechanical response prediction of EVA foam and also for reference value in engineering application.
文摘This paper describes an extension and a new foundation of the Standard Model of particle physics based on a SU(4)-force called hyper-color, and on preon subparticles. The hyper-color force is a generalization of the SU(2)-based weak interaction and the SU(1)-based right-chiral self-interaction, in which the W-and the Z-bosons are Yukawa residual-field-carriers of the hyper-color force, in the same sense as the pions are the residual-field-carriers of the color SU(3) interaction. Using the method of numerical minimization of the SU(4)-action based on this model, the masses and the inner structure of leptons, quarks and weak bosons are calculated: the mass results are very close to the experimental values. We calculate also precisely the value of the Cabibbo angle, so the mixing matrices of the Standard model, CKM matrix for quarks and PMNS matrix for neutrinos can also be calculated. In total, we reduce the 29 parameters of the Standard Model to a total of 7 parameters.
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金Anhui Provincial Science and Technology Special Project (202204c06020014)the Provincial Natural Resources Fund (1908085QC140)。
文摘Knowledge of which biological and functional traits have,or lack,phylogenetic signal in a particular group of organisms is important to understanding the formation and functioning of biological communities.Allometric biomass models reflecting tree growth characteristics are commonly used to predict forest biomass.However,few studies have examined whether model parameters are constrained by phylogeny.Here,we use a comprehensive database(including 276 tree species) compiled from 894 allometric biomass models published in 302 articles to examine whether parameters a and b of the model W=aD~b(where W stands for aboveground biomass,D is diameter at breast height) exhibit phylogenetic signal for all tree species as a whole and for different groups of tree species.For either model parameter,we relate difference in model parameter between different tree species to phylogenetic distance and to environmental distance between pairwise sites.Our study shows that neither model parameter exhibits phylogenetic signals(Pagel's λ and Blomberg's K both approach zero).This is the case regardless of whether all tree species in our data set were analyzed as a whole or tree species in different taxonomic groups(gymnosperm and angiosperm),leaf duration groups(evergreen and deciduous),or ecological groups(tropical,temperate and boreal) were analyzed separately.Our study also shows that difference in each parameter of the allometric biomass model is not significantly related to phylogenetic and environmental distances between tree species in different sites.
文摘A comparison between deep learning and standalone models in predicting the compaction parameters of soil is presented in this research.One hundred and ninety and fifty-three soil samples were randomly picked up from two hundred and forty-three soil samples to create training and validation datasets,respectively.The performance and accuracy of the models were measured by root mean square error(RMSE),coefficient of determination(R2),Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient(r),mean absolute error(MAE),variance accounted for(VAF),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),weighted mean absolute percentage error(WMAPE),a20-index,index of scatter(IOS),and index of agreement(IOA).Comparisons between standalone models demonstrate that the model MD 29 in Gaussian process regression(GPR)and model MD 101 in support vector machine(SVM)can achieve over 96%of accuracy in predicting the optimum moisture content(OMC)and maximum dry density(MDD)of soil,and outperformed other standalone models.The comparison between deep learning models shows that the models MD 46 and MD 146 in long short-term memory(LSTM)predict OMC and MDD with higher accuracy than ANN models.However,the LSTM models outperformed the GPR models in predicting the compaction parameters.The sensitivity analysis illustrates that fine content(FC),specific gravity(SG),and liquid limit(LL)highly influence the prediction of compaction parameters.
基金the support of Prince Sultan University for paying the article processing charges(APC)of this publication.
文摘This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.
文摘Typically,a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected.It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses,suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet.To understand the dynamics of the virus propagation in a better way,a computer virus spread model with fuzzy parameters is presented in this work.It is assumed that all infected computers do not have the same contribution to the virus transmission process and each computer has a different degree of infectivity,which depends on the quantity of virus.Considering this,the parametersβandγbeing functions of the computer virus load,are considered fuzzy numbers.Using fuzzy theory helps us understand the spread of computer viruses more realistically as these parameters have fixed values in classical models.The essential features of the model,like reproduction number and equilibrium analysis,are discussed in fuzzy senses.Moreover,with fuzziness,two numerical methods,the forward Euler technique,and a nonstandard finite difference(NSFD)scheme,respectively,are developed and analyzed.In the evidence of the numerical simulations,the proposed NSFD method preserves the main features of the dynamic system.It can be considered a reliable tool to predict such types of solutions.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0605002,2017YFA0605004,and 2016YFA0601501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961124007,51779145,and 41830863)“Six top talents”in Jiangsu Province(RJFW-031)。
文摘Model parameters estimation is a pivotal issue for runoff modeling in ungauged catchments.The nonlinear relationship between model parameters and catchment descriptors is a major obstacle for parameter regionalization,which is the most widely used approach.Runoff modeling was studied in 38 catchments located in the Yellow–Huai–Hai River Basin(YHHRB).The values of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE),coefficient of determination(R2),and percent bias(PBIAS)indicated the acceptable performance of the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model in the YHHRB.Nine descriptors belonging to the categories of climate,soil,vegetation,and topography were used to express the catchment characteristics related to the hydrological processes.The quantitative relationships between the parameters of the SWAT model and the catchment descriptors were analyzed by six regression-based models,including linear regression(LR)equations,support vector regression(SVR),random forest(RF),k-nearest neighbor(kNN),decision tree(DT),and radial basis function(RBF).Each of the 38 catchments was assumed to be an ungauged catchment in turn.Then,the parameters in each target catchment were estimated by the constructed regression models based on the remaining 37 donor catchments.Furthermore,the similaritybased regionalization scheme was used for comparison with the regression-based approach.The results indicated that the runoff with the highest accuracy was modeled by the SVR-based scheme in ungauged catchments.Compared with the traditional LR-based approach,the accuracy of the runoff modeling in ungauged catchments was improved by the machine learning algorithms because of the outstanding capability to deal with nonlinear relationships.The performances of different approaches were similar in humid regions,while the advantages of the machine learning techniques were more evident in arid regions.When the study area contained nested catchments,the best result was calculated with the similarity-based parameter regionalization scheme because of the high catchment density and short spatial distance.The new findings could improve flood forecasting and water resources planning in regions that lack observed data.
文摘We discuss formulas and techniques for finding maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters of autoregressive (with particular emphasis on Markov and Yule) models, computing their asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and displaying the resulting confidence regions;Monte Carlo simulation is then used to establish the accuracy of the corresponding level of confidence. The results indicate that a direct application of the Central Limit Theorem yields errors too large to be acceptable;instead, we recommend using a technique based directly on the natural logarithm of the likelihood function, verifying its substantially higher accuracy. Our study is then extended to the case of estimating only a subset of a model’s parameters, when the remaining ones (called nuisance) are of no interest to us.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[No.51978166]。
文摘Structural damage is significantly influenced by the various parameters of a close-in explosion.To establish a close-in blast loading model for cylindrical charges according to these parameters,a series of field experiments and a systematic numerical analysis were conducted.A high-fidelity finite element model developed using AUTODYN was first validated using blast data collected from field tests conducted in this and previous studies.A quantitative analysis was then performed to determine the influence of the charge shape,aspect ratio(length to diameter),orientation,and detonation configuration on the characteristics and distributions of the blast loading(incident peak overpressure and impulse)according to scaled distance.The results revealed that the secondary peak overpressure generated by a cylindrical charge was mainly distributed along the axial direction and was smaller than the overpressure generated by an equivalent spherical charge.The effects of charge shape on the blast loading at 45°and 67.5°in the axial plane could be neglected at scaled distances greater than 2 m/kg^(1/3);the effect of aspect ratios greater than 2 on the peak overpressure in the 90°(radial)direction could be neglected at all scaled distances;and double-end detonation increased the radial blast loading by up to 60%compared to singleend detonation.Finally,an empirical cylindrical charge blast loading model was developed considering the influences of charge aspect ratio,orientation,and detonation configuration.The results obtained in this study can serve as a reference for the design of blast tests using cylindrical charges and aid engineers in the design of blast-resistant structures.
文摘The effects of the milling parameters involving shape of powder particles, rotation speed, and ball-to-powder diameter (BPDR) on DEM modeling in the planetary ball mill were investigated. BPDR was varied from 1 to 10. The results revealed that the size and shape of the powder particles do not give a significant change in simulation results when BPDR attains maximum value of 10. The increasing of BPDR leads to the increase of simulation time and size. Hence, the effect of change of the powder particle shape on the calculated data size is not significant. The results also revealed that the increasing rotation speed increases impact energy between powder particles.
文摘Clastic rock reservoir is the main reservoir type in the oil and gas field.Archie formula or various conductive models developed on the basis of Archie’s formula are usually used to interpret this kind of reservoir,and the three-water model is widely used as well.However,there are many parameters in the threewater model,and some of them are difficult to determine.Most of the determination methods are based on the statistics of large amount of experimental data.In this study,the authors determine the value of the parameters of the new three-water model based on the nuclear magnetic data and the genetic optimization algorithm.The relative error between the resistivity calculated based on these parameters and the resistivity measured experimentally at 100%water content is 0.9024.The method studied in this paper can be easily applied without much experimental data.It can provide reference for other regions to determine the parameters of the new three-water model.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)+1 种基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)。
文摘Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.
基金supported by the NSF grant AGS-1928883the NASA grants,80NSSC20K1670 and 80MSFC20C0019+2 种基金support from NASA GSFC IRADHIFISFM funds。
文摘Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.
基金Supported by the Project of NINGBO Leading Medical Health Discipline,No.2022-B11Ningbo Natural Science Foundation,No.202003N4206Public Welfare Foundation of Ningbo,No.2021S108.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52279137,52009090).
文摘Estimation of construction parameters is crucial for optimizing tunnel construction schedule.Due to the influence of routine activities and occasional risk events,these parameters are usually correlated and imbalanced.To solve this issue,an improved bidirectional generative adversarial network(BiGAN)model with a joint discriminator structure and zero-centered gradient penalty(0-GP)is proposed.In this model,in order to improve the capability of original BiGAN in learning imbalanced parameters,the joint discriminator separately discriminates the routine activities and risk event durations to balance their influence weights.Then,the self-attention mechanism is embedded so that the discriminator can pay more attention to the imbalanced parameters.Finally,the 0-GP is adapted for the loss of the discrimi-nator to improve its convergence and stability.A case study of a tunnel in China shows that the improved BiGAN can obtain parameter estimates consistent with the classical Gauss mixture model,without the need of tedious and complex correlation analysis.The proposed joint discriminator can increase the ability of BiGAN in estimating imbalanced construction parameters,and the 0-GP can ensure the stability and convergence of the model.