A model predictive inverse method (MPIM) is presented to estimate the time- and space-dependent heat flux onthe ablated boundary and the ablation velocity of the two-dimensional ablation system. For the method, first ...A model predictive inverse method (MPIM) is presented to estimate the time- and space-dependent heat flux onthe ablated boundary and the ablation velocity of the two-dimensional ablation system. For the method, first of all, therelationship between the heat flux and the temperatures of the measurement points inside the ablation material is establishedby the predictive model based on an influence relationship matrix. Meanwhile, the estimation task is formulated as aninverse heat transfer problem (IHTP) with consideration of ablation, which is described by an objective function of thetemperatures at the measurement point. Then, the rolling optimization is used to solve the IHTP to online estimate theunknown heat flux on the ablated boundary. Furthermore, the movement law of the ablated boundary is reconstructedaccording to the estimation of the boundary heat flux. The effects of the temperature measurement errors, the numberof future time steps, and the arrangement of the measurement points on the estimation results are analyzed in numericalexperiments. On the basis of the numerical results, the effectiveness of the presented method is clarified.展开更多
The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential on average. As an error becomes larger, its growth slows down and then stops with the magnitude of the error saturating at about the average distance bet...The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential on average. As an error becomes larger, its growth slows down and then stops with the magnitude of the error saturating at about the average distance between two states chosen randomly.This paper studies the error growth in a low-dimensional atmospheric model before, during and after the initial exponential divergence occurs. We test cubic, quartic and logarithmic hypotheses by ensemble prediction method. Furthermore, the quadratic hypothesis suggested by Lorenz in 1969 is compared with the ensemble prediction method. The study shows that a small error growth is best modeled by the quadratic hypothesis. After the error exceeds about a half of the average value of variables, logarithmic approximation becomes superior. It is also shown that the time length of the exponential growth in the model data is a function of the size of small initial error and the largest Lyapunov exponent. We conclude that the size of the error at the least upper bound(supremum) of time length is equal to 1 and it is invariant to these variables. Predictability, as a time interval, where the model error is growing, is for small initial error, the sum of the least upper bound of time interval of exponential growth and predictability for the size of initial error equal to 1.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51876010 and 51676019).
文摘A model predictive inverse method (MPIM) is presented to estimate the time- and space-dependent heat flux onthe ablated boundary and the ablation velocity of the two-dimensional ablation system. For the method, first of all, therelationship between the heat flux and the temperatures of the measurement points inside the ablation material is establishedby the predictive model based on an influence relationship matrix. Meanwhile, the estimation task is formulated as aninverse heat transfer problem (IHTP) with consideration of ablation, which is described by an objective function of thetemperatures at the measurement point. Then, the rolling optimization is used to solve the IHTP to online estimate theunknown heat flux on the ablated boundary. Furthermore, the movement law of the ablated boundary is reconstructedaccording to the estimation of the boundary heat flux. The effects of the temperature measurement errors, the numberof future time steps, and the arrangement of the measurement points on the estimation results are analyzed in numericalexperiments. On the basis of the numerical results, the effectiveness of the presented method is clarified.
基金supported by Research Plan(No.MSM0021620860)by project(No.SVV-2013-267308)
文摘The growth of small errors in weather prediction is exponential on average. As an error becomes larger, its growth slows down and then stops with the magnitude of the error saturating at about the average distance between two states chosen randomly.This paper studies the error growth in a low-dimensional atmospheric model before, during and after the initial exponential divergence occurs. We test cubic, quartic and logarithmic hypotheses by ensemble prediction method. Furthermore, the quadratic hypothesis suggested by Lorenz in 1969 is compared with the ensemble prediction method. The study shows that a small error growth is best modeled by the quadratic hypothesis. After the error exceeds about a half of the average value of variables, logarithmic approximation becomes superior. It is also shown that the time length of the exponential growth in the model data is a function of the size of small initial error and the largest Lyapunov exponent. We conclude that the size of the error at the least upper bound(supremum) of time length is equal to 1 and it is invariant to these variables. Predictability, as a time interval, where the model error is growing, is for small initial error, the sum of the least upper bound of time interval of exponential growth and predictability for the size of initial error equal to 1.
