Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Heterogeneities of grain boundary contact for simulation of laboratoryscale mechanical behavior of granitic rocks

From a practical point of view,grain structure heterogeneities are key parameters that control the rock response and still remains a challenge to incorporate in a quantitative manner.One of the less discussed topics in the context of the grain-based model(GBM)in the particle flow code(PFC)is the contact heterogeneities and the appropriate contact model to mimic the grain boundary behavior.Generally,the smooth joint(SJ)model and linear parallel bond(LPB)model are used to simulate the grain boundary behavior.However,the literature does not document the suitability of different models for specific problems.Another challenge in implementing GBM in PFC is that only a single bonding parameter is used at the grain boundaries.The aim of this study is to investigate the responses of a laboratory-scale specimen with SJ and LPB models,considering grain boundary heterogeneous and homogeneous contact parameters.Uniaxial and biaxial compression tests are performed to calibrate the response of Creighton granite.The stressestrain curves,volumetric dilation,inter-crack(crack in the grain boundary),and intra-crack(crack within the grain)development,and failure patterns associated with different contact models are examined.It was found that both the SJ and LPB models can reproduce the pre-peak behavior observed for a granitic rock type.However,the LPB model is unable to reproduce the post-peak behavior.Due to the large interlocking effect originating from the balls in contact and the ball size in the LPB model,local dilation is induced at the grain boundaries.This overestimates the volumetric dilation and residual shear strength.The LPB model tends to result in discontinuous inter-cracks and stress localization in the rock specimen,resulting in fine fragments at the rock surface during failure.

Optimal Insurance with Background Risk under the Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity Structure

In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.

A NEW METHOD FOR STRUCTURAL TOPOLOGICAL OPTIMIZATION BASED ON THE CONCEPT OF INDEPENDENT CONTINUOUS VARIABLES AND SMOOTH MODEL

A concept of the independent-continuous topological variable is proposed to establish its corresponding smooth model of structural topological optimization. The method can overcome difficulties that are encountered in conventional models and algorithms for the optimization of the structural topology. Its application to truss topological optimization with stress and displacement constraints is satisfactory, with convergence faster than that of sectional optimizations.

Numerical analysis of submarine landslides using a smoothed particle hydrodynamics depth integral model

Submarine landslides can cause severe damage to marine engineering structures. Their sliding velocity and runout distance are two major parameters for quantifying and analyzing the risk of submarine landslides.Currently, commercial calculation programs such as BING have limitations in simulating underwater soil movements. All of these processes can be consistently simulated through a smoothed particle hydrodynamics（SPH） depth integrated model. The basis of the model is a control equation that was developed to take into account the effects of soil consolidation and erosion. In this work, the frictional rheological mode has been used to perform a simulation study of submarine landslides. Time-history curves of the sliding body＇s velocity, height,and length under various conditions of water depth, slope gradient, contact friction coefficient, and erosion rate are compared; the maximum sliding distance and velocity are calculated; and patterns of variation are discussed.The findings of this study can provide a reference for disaster warnings and pipeline route selection.

THE TOPOLOGICAL OPTIMIZATION FOR TRUSS STRUCTURES WITH STRESS CONSTRAINTS BASED ON THE EXIST-NULL COMBINED MODEL

A new exist-null combined model is proposed for the structural topology optimization. The model is applied to the topology optimization of the truss with stress constraints. Satisfactory computational result can be obtained with more rapid and more stable convergence as compared with the cross-sectional optimization. This work also shows that the presence of independent and continuous topological variable motivates the research of structural topology optimization.

Forecasting Stock Prices with an Integrated Approach Combining ARIMA and Machine Learning Techniques ARIMAML

Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for investors, traders, and researchers alike. Accurate forecasting of stock prices is crucial for financial decision-making and risk management. This paper presents a novel approach to predict stock prices by integrating Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential smoothing and Machine Learning (ML) techniques. Our study aims to enhance the predictive accuracy of stock price forecasting, which can significantly impact investment strategies and economic growth in this research paper implement the ARIMAML proposed method to predict the stock prices for Investment Bank of Iraq.

Analysis and predication of tuberculosis registration rates in Henan Province, China: an exponential smoothing model study

Background The World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline,the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence should be 20 and 50%in 2020 and 2025,respectively.The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9%of the global total in 2018,which ranked the second high in the world.From 2007 to 2019,854672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province,China.This study was to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province.Methods The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019,registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025,which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones.The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016,and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019.The Ljung-Box Q statistic was used to evaluate the model.The statistically significant level isα=0.05.Monthly active PTB registration rates and 95%confidence interval(CI)from 2020 to 2025 were predicted.Results High active PTB registration rates in March,April,May and June showed the seasonal variations.The exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model.The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019.The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1(95%CI:36.2–62.0)per 100000 population and 34.4(95%CI:18.6–50.2)per 100000 population in 2020 and 2025,respectively.Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015,the reduction will reach 23.7%(95%CI,3.2–44.1%)and 46.8%(95%CI,21.4–72.1%)in 2020 and 2025,respectively.Conclusions The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province.Without regard to the CI,the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved.However,the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province,China.

Spatiotemporal variation in forest fire danger from 1996 to 2010 in Jilin Province,China

We evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fires in two fire seasons (March to June and September to November) from 1996 to 2010 in Jilin Province, China, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Fire data were obtained from the Provincial Fire Agency, and historical climate records of daily weather observations were collected from 36 weather stations in Jilin and its neighboring provinces. A linear regression model was used to analyze linear trends between climate and fire weather indices with time treated as an independent variable. Correlation analysis was used to detect correlations between fire frequency, areas burned, and fire weather indices. A thin-plate smooth spline model was used to interpolate the point data of 36 weather stations to generate a surface covering the whole province. Our analyses indicated fire frequency and areas burned were significantly correlated with fire weather indices. Overall, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System appeared to be work well for determining the fire danger rating in Jilin Province. Also, our analyses indicated that in the forthcoming decades, the overall fire danger in March and April should decrease across the province, but the chance of a large fire in these months would increase. The fire danger in the fall fire season would increase in the future, and the chance of large fire would also increase. Historically, because most fires have occurred in the spring in Jilin Province, such a shift in the future fire danger between the two fire seasons would be beneficial for the province's fire management.

Large Deformation Analysis and Synthesis of Elastic Closed-loop Mechanism Made of a Certain Spring Wire Described by Free Curves

Recently novel mechanisms with compact size and without many mechanical elements such as bearing are strongly required for medical devices such as surgical operation devices. This paper describes analysis and synthesis of elastic link mechanisms of a single spring beam which can be manufactured by NC coiling machines. These mechanisms are expected as disposable micro forceps. Smooth Curvature Model（SCM） with 3rd order Legendre polynomial curvature functions is applied to calculate large deformation of a curved cantilever beam by taking account of the balance between external and internal elastic forces and moments. SCM is then extended to analyze large deformation of a closed-loop curved elastic beam which is composed of multiple free curved beams. A closed-loop elastic link is divided into two free curved cantilever beams each of which is assumed as serially connected free curved cantilever beams described with SCM. The sets of coefficients of Legendre polynomials of SCM in all free curved cantilever beams are determined by taking account of the force and moment balance at connecting point where external input force is applied. The sets of coefficients of Legendre polynomials of a nonleaded closed-loop elastic link are optimized to design a link mechanism which can generate specified output motion due to input force applied at the assumed dividing point. For example, two planar micro grippers with a single pulling input force are analyzed and designed. The elastic deformation analyzed with proposed method agrees very well with that calculated with FEM. The designed micro gripper can generate the desired pinching motion. The proposed method can contribute to design compact and simple elastic mechanisms without high calculation costs.

Energy Consumption, Economic Development and Temperature in China： Evidence from PSTR Model

Since the 1980s, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, with an av- erage annual growth rate around 10%. Energy consumption in China has greatly in- creased as well. This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, economic development and temperature in China by adopting provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011. Different from existing studies, in this paper, we use a panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model to estimate the non-linearity relationship. Four different threshold variables including two lagged endogenous variables and two important exogenous variables have been considered. We find that energy intensity and the ratio of gross capital formation are suitable for the non-linearity model. The estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that energy consumption is income in- elastic and temperature inelastic. Elasticities of real income at first increase and then decrease, however, elasticities of temperature gradually increase after the year 1993. Last of all, we propose some policy implications.

海水流中溢油扩散的多相光滑粒子流体动力学模拟

在灾害造成石油泄漏的情况下,引发的主要环境问题之一是石油的轨迹及其空间分布.本文通过二维光滑粒子流体力学(SPH)多相模拟方法研究海底溢油情形,可以更好地了解原油在水中的扩散过程.重点研究了射流在静水中或横向进入不同流速的流动流中诱导流动的主要特征,此外,还研究了原油泄漏速率的影响.通过与实验数据的对比,验证了SPH数值模型的有效性,分析了主要物理参数对流动的影响.模拟结果表明,流速是影响溢油运移流量的关键因素.

CFD simulation of smooth and T-abrupt exits in circulating fluidized bed risers

Gas-solid flow in circulating fluidized bed （CFB） risers depends not only on operating conditions but also on exit configurations. Few studies investigated the effects of exit configurations on flow structure using computational fluid dynamics （CFD）. This paper provides a 2D two-fluid model to simulate a cold bench-scale square cross-section riser with smooth and T-abrupt exits. The drag force between the gas and solid phases plays an important role in CFD. Since the drag force model based on homogeneous two- phase flow, such as the Wen-Yu correlation, could not capture the heterogeneous structures in gas-solid flow, the structure-dependent energy-minimization multi-scale （EMMS） drag force model （Wang, Ge, ＆ Li, 2008）, applicable for Geldart B particles （sand）, was integrated into the two-fluid model. The calculated axial solids hold-up profiles were respectively exponential curve for smooth exit and C-shaped curve for T-abrupt exit, both consistent with experimental data. This study once again proves the key role of drag force in CFD simulation and also shows the validity of CFD simulation （two-fluid model） to describe exit effects on ~as-solid flow in CFB risers.

SPH numerical investigation of the characteristics of an oscillating hydraulic jump at an abrupt drop

This paper shows the results of the smooth particle hydrodynamics（SPH） modelling of the hydraulic jump at an abrupt drop,where the transition from supercritical to subcritical flow is characterised by several flow patterns depending upon the inflow and tailwater conditions. SPH simulations are obtained by a pseudo-compressible XSPH scheme with pressure smoothing; turbulent stresses are represented either by an algebraic mixing-length model, or by a two-equation k-ε model. The numerical model is applied to analyse the occurrence of oscillatory flow conditions between two different jump types characterised by quasi-periodic oscillation,and the results are compared with experiments performed at the hydraulics laboratory of Bari Technical University. The purpose of this paper is to obtain a deeper understanding of the physical features of a flow which is in general difficult to be reproduced numerically,owing to its unstable character： in particular, vorticity and turbulent kinetic energy fields, velocity, water depth and pressure spectra downstream of the jump, and velocity and pressure cross-correlations can be computed and analysed.