Modelling of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Series by Univariate Box-Jenkins Type of Models

The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is applied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validted on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.

Adsorption of Naphthol Green B on unburned carbon：2-and3-parameter linear and non-linear equilibrium modelling

The study deals with adsorption of Naphthol Green B on two unburned carbons and the parent coal,from which the UCs have been created in a fluidised-bed power station.Particular attention has been paid to the adsorption equilibrium modelling:experimental data has been analysed using 2-parameter(Langmuir,Freundlich) and3-parameter(Redlich-Peterson) isotherms — both linear and non-linear regressions have been used for the estimation of the isotherm parameters.In the case of both UCs,the Langmuir isotherm model provides the worst fit,whereas 2-parameter Freundlich and 3-parameter Redlich-Peterson models are both good,from which 3-parameter Redlich-Peterson isotherm provides slightly better results(despite the penalty used for the higher number of parameters).In the case of both UCs,the linear regression of Freundlich and Redlich-Peterson models provides good results(comparable with non-linear regressions).Unlike both UCs,the best fit of the experimental data from the adsorption on the coal has been achieved by the Langmuir isotherm model.The results based on the Freundlich or Redlich-Peterson model were(in this case) somewhat worse.

Basic principles of the whole petroleum system

This paper expounds the basic principles and structures of the whole petroleum system to reveal the pattern of conventional oil/gas-tight oil/gas-shale oil/gas sequential accumulation and the hydrocarbon accumulation models and mechanisms of the whole petroleum system.It delineates the geological model,flow model,and production mechanism of shale and tight reservoirs,and proposes future research orientations.The main structure of the whole petroleum system includes three fluid dynamic fields,three types of oil and gas reservoirs/resources,and two types of reservoir-forming processes.Conventional oil/gas,tight oil/gas,and shale oil/gas are orderly in generation time and spatial distribution,and sequentially rational in genetic mechanism,showing the pattern of sequential accumulation.The whole petroleum system involves two categories of hydrocarbon accumulation models:hydrocarbon accumulation in the detrital basin and hydrocarbon accumulation in the carbonate basin/formation.The accumulation of unconventional oil/gas is self-containment,which is microscopically driven by the intermolecular force(van der Waals force).The unconventional oil/gas production has proved that the geological model,flow model,and production mechanism of shale and tight reservoirs represent a new and complex field that needs further study.Shale oil/gas must be the most important resource replacement for oil and gas resources of China.Future research efforts include:(1)the characteristics of the whole petroleum system in carbonate basins and the source-reservoir coupling patterns in the evolution of composite basins;(2)flow mechanisms in migration,accumulation,and production of shale oil/gas and tight oil/gas;(3)geological characteristics and enrichment of deep and ultra-deep shale oil/gas,tight oil/gas and coalbed methane;(4)resource evaluation and new generation of basin simulation technology of the whole petroleum system;(5)research on earth system-earth organic rock and fossil fuel system-whole petroleum system.

Observation on the Effect of Parental Participation in Nursing Under the IMCHB Model in Neonatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy

Objective:To investigate the clinical effects of parental participation in nursing under the Interaction Model of Client Health Behavior(IMCHB)model in neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy(HIE).Methods:The First Affiliated Hospital of Gannan Medical University included 46 newborns with HIE admitted from October 2021 to October 2023 into the study population.They were divided into a control group and an observation group according to the random number table method,with the control group adopting routine nursing,and the observation group implementing parental participation in nursing under the IMCHB model.The indicators of physical,intellectual,and psychomotor development of the two groups were compared before and after nursing.Results:The physical,intellectual,and psychomotor development of the observation group was higher than that of the control group after 3 months of nursing,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The implementation of the IMCHB model of parental participation in the clinical care of HIE neonates can further promote their physical,intellectual,and psychomotor development.

山东省中医类医院卫生人力资源需求预测

目的了解山东省中医类医院卫生人力资源的现状,预测卫生人力资源未来的需求量并提出合理建议,以期为相关部门制定中医药人力资源规划提供依据和数据支持。方法运用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive moving average,ARIMA)模型、灰色系统预测模型(grey system forecasting model,GM)中的GM(1,1)模型以及两者的线性组合模型预测2021—2025年山东省中医类医院卫生人力资源需求量,比较不同模型预测的精准度。结果组合模型的系统误差小,预测效果最好;卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、中医类别执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药师(士)及中药师(士)2025年对应的人力资源预测值分别是107457人、43304人、22807人、51372人、5718人、3242人。结论山东省中医类别执业(助理)医师数量储备充足,但中药师(士)相对短缺,人才结构不合理,医护比有待优化。建议政府适当地增加中药师(士)的编制,促进执业(助理)医师与中药师(士)平衡发展;增加对中医类医院的财政拨款,加强人才引进力度,创新人才培养机制,优化山东省中医药人才结构;制定科学合理的排班制度,提高护士的社会地位,进一步优化医护比。

Combining the genetic algorithms with artificial neural networks for optimization of board allocating

This paper introduced the Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which have been widely used in optimization of allocating. The combination way of the two optimizing algorithms was used in board allocating of furniture production. In the experiment, the rectangular flake board of 3650 mm 1850 mm was used as raw material to allocate 100 sets of Table Bucked. The utilizing rate of the board reached 94.14 % and the calculating time was only 35 s. The experiment result proofed that the method by using the GA for optimizing the weights of the ANN can raise the utilizing rate of the board and can shorten the time of the design. At the same time, this method can simultaneously searched in many directions, thus greatly in-creasing the probability of finding a global optimum.

Modeling of Ship Maneuvering Motion Using Neural Networks

In this paper, Neural Networks （NNs） are used in the modeling of ship maneuvering motion. A nonlinear response model and a linear hydrodynamic model of ship maneuvering motion are also investigated. The maneuverability indices and linear non-dimensional hydrodynamic derivatives in the models are identified by using two-layer feed forward NNs. The stability of parametric estimation is confirmed. Then, the ship maneuvering motion is predicted based on the obtained models. A comparison between the predicted results and the model test results demonstrates the validity of the proposed modeling method.

Application of 3-D Geoscience Modeling Technology for the Estimation of Solid Mineral Reserves

Applying new approaches, methods, and technologies for the estimation of reserves can effectively improve the efficiency and accuracy of assessments of solid mineral resources. After analyzing the development of 3-D geoscience modeling technology （3-D GMT）, this paper discusses the application of 3-D GMT for the estimation of solid mineral reserves, emphatically introducing its workflow and two key technologies, 3-D orebody surface modeling, and property modeling. Moreover, the paper analyzes the limitations of traditional methods, such as the section method and geological block method, and points out the advantages of 3-D GMT： building more accurate 3-D orebody models, expressing the internal inhomogeneous attributes of an orebody, reducing the potential for errors in the estimation of reserves, and implementing dynamic estimations of reserves.

Comparison of machine learning models for gully erosion susceptibility mapping

Gully erosion is a disruptive phenomenon which extensively affects the Iranian territory,especially in the Northern provinces.A number of studies have been recently undertaken to study this process and to predict it over space and ultimately,in a broader national effort,to limit its negative effects on local communities.We focused on the Bastam watershed where 9.3%of its surface is currently affected by gullying.Machine learning algorithms are currently under the magnifying glass across the geomorphological community for their high predictive ability.However,unlike the bivariate statistical models,their structure does not provide intuitive and quantifiable measures of environmental preconditioning factors.To cope with such weakness,we interpret preconditioning causes on the basis of a bivariate approach namely,Index of Entropy.And,we performed the susceptibility mapping procedure by testing three extensions of a decision tree model namely,Alternating Decision Tree(ADTree),Naive-Bayes tree(NBTree),and Logistic Model Tree(LMT).We dichotomized the gully information over space into gully presence/absence conditions,which we further explored in their calibration and validation stages.Being the presence/absence information and associated factors identical,the resulting differences are only due to the algorithmic structures of the three models we chose.Such differences are not significant in terms of performances;in fact,the three models produce outstanding predictive AUC measures(ADTree=0.922;NBTree=0.939;LMT=0.944).However,the associated mapping results depict very different patterns where only the LMT is associated with reasonable susceptibility patterns.This is a strong indication of what model combines best performance and mapping for any natural hazard-oriented application.

Modeling of turbulent,isothermal and cryogenic cavitation under attached conditions

Cavitation is often triggered when the fluid pres- sure is lower than the vapor pressure at a local thermo- dynamic state. The present article reviews recent progress made toward developing modeling and computational strat- egies for cavitation predictions under both isothermal and cryogenic conditions, with an emphasis on the attached cav- ity. The review considers alternative cavitation models along Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes and very lager eddy simu- lation turbulence approaches to ensure that the computational tools can handle flows of engineering interests. Observing the substantial uncertainties associated with both modeling and experimental information, surrogate modeling strategies are reviewed to assess the implications and relative impor- tance of the various modeling and materials parameters. The exchange between static and dynamic pressures under the influence of the viscous effects can have a noticeable impact on the effective shape of a solid object, which can impact the cavitation structure. The thermal effect with respect to evaporation and condensation dynamics is examined to shed light on the fluid physics associated with cryogenic cav- itation. The surrogate modeling techniques are highlighted in the context of modeling sensitivity assessment. Keywords

New partial cooperation model for bilevel programming problems

Partial cooperation models are studied for many years to solve the bilevel programming problems where the follower’s optimal reaction is not unique. However, in these existed models, the follower’s cooperation level does not depend on the leader’s decision. A new model is proposed to solve this deficiency. It is proved the feasibility of the new model when the reaction set of the lower level is lower semicontinuous. And the numerical results show that the new model has optimal solutions when the reaction set of the lower level is discrete, lower semi-continuous and non-lower semi-continuous.

Vehicle Active Steering Control Research Based on Two-DOF Robust Internal Model Control

Because of vehicle＇s external disturbances and model uncertainties,robust control algorithms have obtained popularity in vehicle stability control.The robust control usually gives up performance in order to guarantee the robustness of the control algorithm,therefore an improved robust internal model control（IMC） algorithm blending model tracking and internal model control is put forward for active steering system in order to reach high performance of yaw rate tracking with certain robustness.The proposed algorithm inherits the good model tracking ability of the IMC control and guarantees robustness to model uncertainties.In order to separate the design process of model tracking from the robustness design process,the improved 2 degree of freedom（DOF） robust internal model controller structure is given from the standard Youla parameterization.Simulations of double lane change maneuver and those of crosswind disturbances are conducted for evaluating the robust control algorithm,on the basis of a nonlinear vehicle simulation model with a magic tyre model.Results show that the established 2-DOF robust IMC method has better model tracking ability and a guaranteed level of robustness and robust performance,which can enhance the vehicle stability and handling,regardless of variations of the vehicle model parameters and the external crosswind interferences.Contradiction between performance and robustness of active steering control algorithm is solved and higher control performance with certain robustness to model uncertainties is obtained.

Construction of tree volume equations for Chinese fir plantations in Guizhou Province, southwestern China

Forest volume, the major component of forest biomass, is an important issue in forest resource monitoring.It is estimated from tree volume tables or equations. Based on tree volume data of 1840 sample trees from Chinese fir （Cunninghamia lanceolata） plantations in Guizhou Province in southwestern China, parallel one- and two-variable tree volume tables and tree height curves for central and other areas were constructed using an error-in-variable modeling method. The results show that, although the one-variable tree volume equations and height curves between the central and other areas were significantly different, the two-variable volume equations were sufficiently close, so that a generalized two-variable tree volume equation could be established for the entire province.

Turbulence and cavitation models for time-dependent turbulent cavitating flows

Cavitation typically occurs when the fluid pressure is lower than the vapor pressure at a local thermodynamic state, and the flow is frequently unsteady and turbulent. To assess the state-of-the-art of computational capabilities for unsteady cavitating flows, different cavitation and turbulence model combinations are conducted. The selected cavitation models include several widely-used models including one based on phenomenological argument and the other utilizing interface dynamics. The k-e turbulence model with additional implementation of the filter function and density correction function are considered to reduce the eddy viscosity according to the computed turbulence length scale and local fluid density respectively. We have also blended these alternative cavitation and lustrate that the eddy viscosity turbulence treatments, to ilnear the closure region can significantly influence the capture of detached cavity. From the experimental validations regarding the force analysis, frequency, and the cavity visualization, no single model combination performs best in all aspects. Furthermore, the implications of parameters contained in different cavitation models are investigated. The phase change process is more pronounced around the detached cavity, which is better illustrated by the interfacial dynamics model. Our study provides insight to aid further modeling development.

Applicability of five models to simulate water infiltration into soil with added biochar

As a soil amendment, biochar can reduce soil bulk density, increase soil porosity, and alter soil aggregates and thus affect the infiltration. Researchers have proposed and revised several theoretical models to describe the process of soil infiltration. Although these models have been successfully used to evaluate the soil infiltration in different scenarios in agricultural fields, little effort has been devoted to assess their performances in arid and semi-arid soils after the addition of biochar. A laboratory experiment was performed to study the infiltration characteristics of two typical Loess Plateau soils at three particle sizes（2–1, 1–0.25, and 〈0.25 mm） and five biochar application amounts（0, 10, 50, 100, and 150 g/kg）. The performance of five models（i.e., the Philip model, Kostiakov model, Mezencev model, USDA-NRCS model, and Horton model） in simulating the infiltration process was then evaluated based on the adjusted coefficient of determination and a reduced Chi-Square test. Results indicated that the Horton model best simulated the water-infiltration process in an aeolian sandy soil with added biochar. However, the Mezencev model best simulated the infiltration process in a loamy clay soil（Eum-Orthic Anthrosol）. The three-parameter model, i.e., Mezencev and Horton models can better describe the relationship between cumulative infiltration and infiltration time. In conclusion, biochar reduced the soil infiltration capacity of the aeolian sandy soil and increased that of the Eum-Orthic Anthrosol.

Numerical simulation study of the failure evolution process and failure mode of surrounding rock in deep soft rock roadways

Based on the safety coefficient method,which assigns rock failure criteria to calculate the rock mass unit,the safety coefficient contour of surrounding rock is plotted to judge the distribution form of the fractured zone in the roadway.This will provide the basis numerical simulation to calculate the surrounding rock fractured zone in a roadway.Using the single factor and multi-factor orthogonal test method,the evolution law of roadway surrounding rock displacements,plastic zone and stress distribution under different conditions is studied.It reveals the roadway surrounding rock burst evolution process,and obtains five kinds of failure modes in deep soft rock roadway.Using the fuzzy mathematics clustering analysis method,the deep soft surrounding rock failure model in Zhujixi mine can be classified and patterns recognized.Compared to the identification results and the results detected by geological radar of surrounding rock loose circle,the reliability of the results of the pattern recognition is verified and lays the foundations for the support design of deep soft rock roadways.

DPM simulation in an underground entry: Comparison between particle and species models

The diesel particulate matter(DPM) emission from diesel powered equipment in underground mines can cause health hazards including cancer to the miners. The understanding of the DPM propagation pattern under realistic mining condition is required for selecting proper DPM control strategies and to improve working practices in underground mines. In this paper, three dimensional simulations of DPM emission from the exhaust tail pipe of a load-haul-dump(LHD) vehicle and its subsequent distribution inside an isolated zone in the typical underground mine are carried out using two different solution models available in Ansys Fluent. The incoming fresh air into the isolated zone is treated as a continuous phase and DPM is treated either as a continuous phase(gas) or as a secondary discrete phase(particle). Species transport model is used when DPM is treated as gas and discrete phase model is used when DPM is assumed to behave like a particle. The distributions of DPM concentration inside the isolated zone obtained from each method are presented and compared. From the comparison results, an accurate and economical solution technique for DPM evaluation can be selected.

Stability analyses of vertically exposed cemented backfill:A revisit to Mitchell's physical model tests

Mitchell's solution is commonly used to determine the required strength of vertically exposed cemented backfill in mines. Developed for drained backfill, Mitchell model assumed a zero friction angle for the backfill. Physical model tests were performed. Good agreements were obtained between the required strengths predicted by the analytical solution and experimental results. However, it is well-known that zero friction angle can only be possible in terms of total stresses when geomaterials are submitted to unconsolidated and undrained conditions. A revisit to Mitchell's physical model tests reveals that both the laboratory tests performed for obtaining the shear strength parameters of the cemented backfill and the box stability tests were conducted under a condition close to undrained condition. This explains well the good agreement between Mitchell's solution and experimental results. Good agreements are equally obtained between Mitchell's experimental results and FLAC3 D numerical modeling of shortterm stability analyses of exposed cemented backfill.

Influences of affiliated components and train length on the train wind

The induced airfl w from passing trains,which is recognized as train wind,usually has adverse impacts on people in the surroundings,i.e.,the aerodynamic forces generated by a high-speed train＇s wind may act on the human body and endanger the safety of pedestrians or roadside workers.In this paper,an improved delayed detached eddy simulation（IDDES） method is used to study train wind.The effects of the affiliate components and train length on train wind are analyzed.The results indicate that the aff liated components and train length have no effect on train wind in the area in front of the leading nose.In the downstream and wake regions,the longitudinal train wind becomes stronger as the length of the train increases,while the transverse train wind is not affected.The presence of affiliate components strengthens the train wind in the near fiel of the train because of strong fl w solid interactions but has limited effects on train wind in the far field.

A Geometry-Based Non-Stationary MIMO Channel Model for Vehicular Communications

This paper derives a non-stationary multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) from the one-ring scattering model. The proposed channel model characterizes vehicular radio propagation channels with considerations of moving base and mobile stations, which makes the angle of arrivals(AOAs) along with the angle of departures(AODs) time-variant. We introduce the methodology of including the time-variant impacts when characterizing non-stationary radio propagation channels through the geometrical channel modelling approach. We analyze the statistical properties of the proposed channel model including the local time-variant autocorrelation function(ACF) and the space cross-correlation functions(CCFs). We show that the model developed in this paper for non-stationary scenarios includes the existing one-ring wide-sense stationary channel model as its special case.