Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

Quantifying Contribution of Recycled Moisture to Precipitation in Temperate Glacier Region,Southeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Recycled moisture is an important indicator of the renewal capacity of regional water resources.Due to the existence of Yulong Snow Mountain,Lijiang in Yunnan Province,southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China,is the closest ocean glacier area to the equator in Eurasia.Daily precipitation samples were collected from 2017 to 2018 in Lijiang to quantify the effect of sub-cloud evaporation and recycled moisture on precipitation combined with the d-excess model during monsoon and non-monsoon periods.The results indicated that the d-excess values of precipitation fluctuated between–35.6‰and 16.0‰,with an arithmetic mean of 3.5‰.The local meteoric water line(LMWL)wasδD=7.91δ^(18)O+2.50,with a slope slightly lower than the global meteoric water line(GMWL).Subcloud evaporation was higher during the non-monsoon season than during the monsoon season.It tended to peak in March and was primarily influenced by the relative humidity.The source of the water vapour affected the proportion of recycled moisture.According to the results of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HYSPLIT)model,the main sources of water vapour in Lijiang area during the monsoon period were the southwest and southeast monsoons.During the non-monsoon period,water vapour was transported by a southwesterly flow.The recycled moisture in Lijiang area between March and October 2017 was 10.62%.Large variations were observed between the monsoon and non-monsoon seasons,with values of 5.48%and 25.65%,respectively.These differences were primarily attributed to variations in the advection of water vapour.The recycled moisture has played a supplementary role in the precipitation of Lijiang area.

Tracking the Moisture Sources of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Shandong,China in July 2007:A Computational Analysis

This paper utilizes a modified Water Accounting Model （WAM） to track the moisture sources of an extreme precipitation event in Shandong during 18-20 July 2007. It is found that different methods in dealing with the residual of the water budget always produce different results in moisture recycling calculations. In addition, results from the backward tracking without the residual are in complete agreement with those from the forward tracking with the residual, and vice versa, implying a mathematical consistency. We thus analyze and derive the conditions under which the two tracking approaches equate with each other. We applied the backward tracking to the Shandong extreme rainfall case and obtained quantitative estimates of moisture contributions of three selected regions away from the rainfall area. The results indicate that the spatial pattern rather than numerical value of the recycling moisture is more reliable in tracking the moisture sources. The moisture of this Shandong rainfall event comes mostly from the nearby upwind area in Southwest China, which is of the terrestrial origin; while the moisture originating from the neighboring West Pacific contributes little to this event.

Hydrologic implications of the isotopic kinetic fractionation of open-water evaporation

The kinetic fractionation of open-water evaporation against the stable water isotope H_2 ^(18)O is an important mechanism underlying many hydrologic studies that use ^(18)O as an isotopic tracer. A recent in-situ measurement of the isotopic water vapor flux over a lake indicates that the kinetic effect is much weaker(kinetic factor 6.2‰) than assumed previously(kinetic factor14.2‰) by lake isotopic budget studies. This study investigates the implications of the weak kinetic effect for studies of deuterium excess-humidity relationships, regional moisture recycling, and global evapotranspiration partitioning. The results indicate that the low kinetic factor is consistent with the deuterium excess-humidity relationships observed over open oceans.The moisture recycling rate in the Great Lakes region derived from the isotopic tracer method with the low kinetic factor is a much better agreement with those from atmospheric modeling studies than if the default kinetic factor of 14.2‰ is used. The ratio of transpiration to evapotranspiration at global scale decreases from 84±9%(with the default kinetic factor) to 76±19%(with the low kinetic factor), the latter of which is in slightly better agreement with other non-isotopic partitioning results.

The elevation gradient of stable isotopes in precipitation in the eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau

Tibetan Plateau(TP)receives moistures from different directions,so variations of isotope elevation gradient on different sides may exist.In this study,we systematically monitored and modeled the elevation effect of stable isotopes in precipitation of the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,where we collected 265 water samples for stable isotope(δ2H andδ^(18)O)analyses,of which 70 are eventful rainfall samples,and 195 are surface water samples,for comparison.Alpine lakes on the mountain peaks were used to reconstruct the average isotope composition of the local precipitation based on the evaporation effect.An elevation gradient of−4.2‰km^(−1)(R^(2)=0.93)was established for the eastern marginal region of TP.This elevation gradient was further confirmed by fractionation assessment using the Rayleigh fractionation model.This is the highest ever reported for the TP and it is the highest as compared to those of all the other slopes as well as that of the interior part of the TP.Precipitation isotopes in the interior of TP show a lower elevation gradient,which is likely caused by significant local moisture recycling.This paper also discusses the limitations of using river water samples to construct the elevation gradient.