Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Polan...Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.展开更多
In this paper, in order to investigate whether the impact of different forms of interest rate differential may pass on to the flexible price monetary model, two flexible price monetary models, which are separately der...In this paper, in order to investigate whether the impact of different forms of interest rate differential may pass on to the flexible price monetary model, two flexible price monetary models, which are separately derived from the generalized monetary models with log-level interest rate differential and that with interest rate differential, are tested for China yuan to US dollar exchange rate. Through Johansen maximum likelihood method, we find that there is little support in the cointegrating coefllcient estimates for both flexible price monetary models for yuan/dollar exchange rate. However, the latter is generally better than the former in the light of sum of squared residual and log likelihood statistics. Therefore, we conclude that there is no transitive impact of different forms of interest rate differential on the flexible price monetary model.展开更多
文摘Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （70371055）
文摘In this paper, in order to investigate whether the impact of different forms of interest rate differential may pass on to the flexible price monetary model, two flexible price monetary models, which are separately derived from the generalized monetary models with log-level interest rate differential and that with interest rate differential, are tested for China yuan to US dollar exchange rate. Through Johansen maximum likelihood method, we find that there is little support in the cointegrating coefllcient estimates for both flexible price monetary models for yuan/dollar exchange rate. However, the latter is generally better than the former in the light of sum of squared residual and log likelihood statistics. Therefore, we conclude that there is no transitive impact of different forms of interest rate differential on the flexible price monetary model.
