The Jinsha River Groundwater Observation Network and Discussion about Its Earthquake Precursor Monitoring Capability

A groundwater observational network for monitoring seismic precursors has been established at the reservoirs on the lower reaches of the Jinsha River in southwestern China, where a series of hydropower stations are under construction. It is the second network in China that is operated by enterprises with the purpose to observe and study earthquake precursors in reservoir areas. This paper presents the layout and technical constitution of the network, features of its observational wells and aquifers and the preliminary result of its experimental operation. Its capability to monitor seismic precursor is evaluated based on an analysis of the well-aquifer system as well as the multiple-monthly, monthly, daily and hourly variations of water levels and water temperatures observed by this network.

Dynamic pattern characteristics of fault deformation and gravity field in the development process of Yongdeng M_S=5.8 earthquake

In this paper, the fault deformation abnormality, dynamic evolution features of gravity and vertical deformation field in the seismogenic process of the Yongdeng, Gansu Province earthquake on July 22, 1995 are studied primarily. There appeared α β γ tri stage anomaly at three sites near the epicenter, and there appeared anomalies of step and sudden jump at more than 10 sites in outer region since 1993. The high value area before shock, coseismic effect and process of recovery aftershock were monitored by portable gravity data. Data reflects the changing process of fault movement from the quasi linear to the nonlinear in the near source region during seismogenic development of the Yongdeng earthquake and evolution of gravity field from heterogeneity of seismogenic term to quasi homogeneity of postseismic term. There exists close relationship between strong earthquake and dynamic evolution of regional stress strain field. Considering all above, the experience and lessons in this medium short term prediction test are summarized.

Results of Geomagnetic Studies on the Problem of Forecasting Strong Earthquakes in Uzbekistan

The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes by the geomagnetic method. The geomagnetic method is widely used on this problem in seismically active regions of the world as one of the promising, informative and operational geophysical methods. The results of long-term geomagnetic studies on the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes in Uzbekistan are presented. Geomagnetic studies were carried out on the territories of the Tashkent, Ferghana, and Kyzylkum geodynamic polygons in the epicentral zones of strong earthquakes that occurred. Long-term, medium- and short-term precursors of earthquakes have been identified. Anomalous changes in the geomagnetic field associated with the decline in aftershock activity were also revealed. The dependence between the duration of the manifestation of long-term magnetic precursors and the magnitude of earthquakes is determined. Absolute proton magnetometers MMP-1, MV-01 (Russia), and G-856 (USA) were used to measure the geomagnetic field.

Experimental examination on the heterogeneity parameter C_v of earthquake precursors

Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multi-point strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using Cv value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of Cv value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of Cv value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. Cv value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when Cv value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that Cv value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.

Study of the Possibility of Predicting Earthquakes

It is already well known that the “when, where and how strong” earthquake prediction problem cannot be solved by only analyzing the database from former earthquakes. A possible solution to this problem is proposed herein based on the analysis of the physicochemical processes as participants in earthquake preparation and on the characteristic rate of reflection of these processes on the Earth’s surface. The proposed procedure includes monitoring of correlation of electromagnetic fields variations with tidal waves.?This solution provides a way of selecting a complex of reliable earthquake precursors using the Inverse Problem Method for earthquakes which will occur in the region around the monitoring point (radial distance ≈ 700 km) in the next seven-day period [1].

Reconstruction of earthquake hazard in regions of sparse seismic monitoring

Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir （Pakistan） earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta （Indonesia） earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.

3-D rheologic model of earthquake preparation (Ⅱ): Strain field and its applications

On the basis of the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model, the analytic expression of viscoelastic strain field is derived, i.e., the analytic expression of viscoelastic strain at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in x-axis, y-axis and z-axis produced by three-dimension inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model, namely the normal strains exx(r, t), eyy(r, t) and ezz(r, t), the shear strains exy(r, t) and eyx(r, t), eyz(r, t) and ezy(r, t), exz(r, t) and ezx(r, t), and the bulk-strain q (r, t). By computing the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain on the ground produced by a spherical rheologic inclusion in a semi-infinite rheologic medium, we obtained some significant results that the bulk-strain variation with time produced by a hard inclusion has three stages (a, b, g) with different characteristics, which are similar to those of most geodetic deformation curves, but not the case for those by a soft inclusion. It is meaningful that these theoretical results have been applied to explain preliminarily the characteristics of stage variation of spatial-temporal evolution, the pattern and quadrant distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to found the physical model of earthquake precursors and a reference to predict physically the earthquakes.

Models(form)of long-,medium-and short-term earthquake precursors

Through analysis and generalization of more than 50 years of monitoring data pertaining to geomagnetic earthquake precursors in landfills across Uzbekistan involving repeated route and area surveys and stationary observations,as well as extensive data retrieved from the study of the complex in foreign countries,models of long-,medium-and short-term earthquake precursors were created for the first time.Medium-and short-term data were mainly studied based on monitoring data of the precursor complex considering geodynamic polygons in Uzbekistan.The analysis demonstrated that these precursors exhibit different shapes,configurations and signs.There occurred no uniform precursor form.Precursors exhibited bay-shaped forms,including both positive and negative signs,in addition to stepped,wave-oscillatory and other formats.The variety of manifestation forms primarily depends on the surrounding regions’geological and tectonic structures and the various processes in the Earth’s crust.

基于GPR-LSTM的地震热红外背景场的构建方法

地震监测是一项非常重要且具有挑战性的任务,遥感技术的不断发展加强了在宏观尺度上对地球表面的监测能力。研究表明,地震前通常都会出现地表温度异常升高的现象,因此各种异常提取算法被应用于地震热异常研究中。其中,基于背景场的提取方法由于具有较强的机理解释性而受到广泛应用。然而,以往基于背景场的异常提取方法更多将背景场限定于某一固定阈值,忽略了受外界因素(非震)影响导致的地表温度的小范围正常波动。据此,文中提出了一种基于GPR-LSTM的地震热红外背景场的构建方法。该方法包括两大部分:震期年变基准场的建立、实际LST的残差波动范围计算及背景场的构建。基于MODIS地表温度产品,以2008年四川汶川和新疆于田地震为研究对象,使用所述方法对地震前兆热异常信息进行提取与分析,经过实验得出以下结论:1)地震热异常通常沿青藏高原的断层分布,这不仅证明了文中方法能够减弱地表温度数据中噪声的干扰,同时也证明该方法在热异常信息提取方面的有效性;2)地震年份的构造活动比非地震年份更加活跃,导致地表温度的异常增温更加明显;3)不同地震案例震前的热异常时空特征各不相同。

云南场区宽频带地震监测台站勘选方法探讨——以文山和曲靖地区为例

地震监测台站勘选的合理性是决定地震观测数据质量、台站功能及稳定运行的重要因素。本文依据中国地震科学实验场建设工程项目云南场区宽频带地震监测意向台站的勘选要求,对云南文山、曲靖地区24个意向台站进行实地勘选,梳理总结了宽频带地震监测意向台站勘选的重要环节,可划分为室内资料收集、台址图勘、野外踏勘确定意向台址、场地协商及租地意向书签订、室内勘选资料整理5个阶段,其中台址图勘对野外踏勘确定意向台址起到了非常重要的作用,大大提高了意向台站勘选的工作效率。以CD151意向台站勘选为例,详细论述了5个阶段的工作方法;同时以4个意向台站噪声水平测试分析验证勘选方法的可行性,勘选的意向台站均符合Ⅰ级台基背景噪声水平,满足按照Ⅲ级地噪声台站勘选的观测环境技术要求,本研究对宽频带地震监测台站勘选工作具有一定参考价值和借鉴意义。

Monitoring earthquake precursor field of NW Yunnan by stress remote sensing

The orbit perturbation of meteorologic satellite is used for the inversion of stress drop dynamic field of regional crustal structure. Rapid scanning over vast area is carried out to obtain short term earthquake-generating precursor field of seismic source and near-source districts in order to predict the three earthquake elements: epicenter, magnitude and commencement time of earthquake with the same effect as weather forecast. Taking the strong earthquakes that occurred in recent years in the NW of Yunnan as examples, direct deduction has been made for Lijiang and Wuding earthquakes, and curves of dynamic characteristics of stress drop before and after earthquakes as well as abnormal fluctuations of precursor stress drop and commencement time of earthquake have been plotted.

Hypothetical Physics and Chemistry of Volcanic Eruptions: The Doorway to Their Prediction

This article presents a further development of the hypotheses concerning the possibility of predicting (“tectonic”) earthquakes [1]. Those hypotheses are based on the conversion of all types of released energy into heat and active chemical substances. One of the important sources of this phenomenon is the release of the latent energy trapped and stored during the Earth’s accretion. The latent energy of primordial hydrogen and helium escaping from the Earth’s core and lower mantle causes degassing processes [2] [3]. This latent energy converts into totally different types of chemical, electromagnetic and thermal energies of active compounds that are responsible for the major endogenic terrestrial processes. The dominating theories in seismology and volcanology are that an earthquake results from a sudden slip of a tectonic fault and that only magma and the gases contained in magma supply the volcanic energy resulting in the conclusions that earthquakes and eruptions are unpredictable. Volcanic eruption is considered herein to be a special case of the earthquake-process in which earthquake hypocenters rise to the Earth’s surface. A possible solution is proposed ([1] and herein) based on the analyses of the physicochemical processes as participants in earthquake and eruption preparations (foreshocks - major shock - aftershocks - volcanic eruptions) and on the characteristic rates of reflection of these processes on the Earth’s surface. Influences of Sun-Moon-tides and volcanic (“harmonic”) tremors are analyzed from physical-chemical point of view. The case of the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens and the proposed monitoring of the recommended additional data provides a way of selecting a complex of reliable earthquake and volcanic eruption precursors.

Model of the singular current source—The indicator of geodynamic processes in Japan in 2009-2011

The calculation method of the location of the singular generalized current source according to synchronous measurements of the magnetic field in the remote points is proposed. It is designed for the continuous monitoring of changes of the degree of electromagnetic heterogeneity of the geophysical environment. Regular fluctuations of the apparent distance to the effective single source were recorded according to the magnetic data of the observatories in Japan 2009-2011. They are connected with the rhythm of the geodynamic processes in the vicinity of the station Kakioka. The most significant decrease in the apparent distance was registered in connection with the seismic activation of the region, including the catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011 with a magnitude of M = 9.1. The anomalous behavior of the apparent parameters of the generalized source was displayed not less than two weeks before the earthquake. Characteristic changes of the curves were registered in the period of three months.

Ultra low frequeney electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes

Many observations and researches show that abundant and intense ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagneticanomalies appears before local earthquakes. In order to understand this phenomenon systematically, the trans-mission property and the formation of the seismic-electric dipole are discussed in this paper. The results showthat the vertical component Of the ULF electric anomaly before earthquake has the properties of better penetration, less disturbance and high signal-to-noise ratio. The signal can be easily extracted and received. The anomaly should be an important way to seek for reliable short-term and imminent earthquake precursors. After thespectrum analysis of the (ULF) electric field anomalies, we found that the periods of the anomaly related to localearthquakes are from a few minutes to a dozens minutes. There is a relation between the spectrum of the anomaly and the epicentral distance. The ULF electric field anomalies strongly rely on the orientation of the seismo-genie zone. The percolation electric field anomaly and its spectrum amplitude do not have obvious relation withthe size of local earthquakes.

Atypical Variations of Water Conductivity Prior to Tectonic Earthquakes

Within the framework of precursor events related to earthquakes, this paper analyzes the possible effect on the aquatic environment of the surrounding energy that accompanies earthquakes, particularly in the area where oceanic and continental plates collide (Cocos Plate and North American Plate, south of Mexico). As a preamble, the types of precursor events, characteristics, and their possible origin are described. A project was designed under the assumption that in areas with high frequency and intensity seismicity there is an electrical and electromagnetic potential promoter which is detectable and assessable indirectly by measuring water conductivity behavior, which also may have atypical variations of data;the outcome of intensive conductivity monitoring in different settings, natural as well as manmade (wellsprings, artesian well and a cistern), are presented herein. The results of the conductivity monitoring for seven months, highlight two patterns in data behavior: one pattern shows the subtle dependence of data behavior on the geographic location of data monitoring instruments, revealing that could have a slight relationship between areas with increased seismic frequency and intensity and the presence of atypical conductivity variations. Another pattern reveals the possible relationship between atypical variations in conductivity and subsequent earthquake events;a total of 241 seismic events were analyzed and 59 of them are provided as evidence related with patterns mentioned.

Simultaneous Study of VLF/ULF Anomalies Associated with Earthquakes in Japan

We carried out a simultaneous study of ground-based magnetic field and lower ionospheric anomalies during major earthquakes occurring around Japan in 2010 and 2012. Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) geomagnetic field waveforms of Esashi station and Very Low Frequency (VLF) Japanese transmitter (JJY) electric signal amplitude received in Moshiri station Hokkaido during nighttime (22:00-02:00 LT) were used to minimize the local interference. Twenty earthquakes having magnitude greater than 5.5 were considered for the data analysis for two years. Nighttime amplitude fluctuations and polarization from the received VLF transmitter signal amplitude and ULF magnetic field respectively were calculated to identify anomalous signatures in relation to every earthquake. We found most earthquakes analyzed indicating VLF amplitude anomalies simultaneously occurred with ULF magnetic field anomalies within a week prior to the earthquakes. Stronger anomalies were observed for larger magnitude and shallower earthquakes. Focal mechanism of earthquakes was also examined to identify the effectiveness of generating anomaly. Both VLF and ULF anomalies were observed for reverse fault type earthquakes occurring under the strong pressure in the crust. Obtained results may indicate the common anomaly source both for VLF and ULF in the lithosphere and are consistent with currently proposed Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) coupling scenarios during the earthquake preparation period.

3次大理历史地震的预测、预报和预防

《大理古佚书钞》收编的《三迤随笔》《淮城夜语》《叶榆稗史》等笔记作品中,分别记述了法端、光明、杨景浩等人,依据多种宏观异常现象,预测、预报和预防了779年、1111年、1341年的大理地震。宏观前兆现象较多的地震,是可以预测、预报和预防的,但需要加强宏观前兆机理的探索研究,揭示宏观前兆现象的物理本质,研发能够有效捕捉临震宏观前兆现象的高灵敏度、高分辨率、高精度的地震前兆监测仪器,精心设计地震前兆监测网格节点。通过网络,将连续监测到的各种信号,实时发送到地震监测中心,使用高速的计算机网络和云平台,进行综合分析研究,提取可靠的地震前兆信息,才有望对宏观前兆现象较多的地震,实现预测、预报和预防。

前兆台站数字化展示软件的设计与实现

使用C++语言,基于Qt框架,设计开发了一款前兆台站数字化展示软件。该软件采用模块化设计,方便用户切换模块并自由编辑展示内容和仪器信息,不但有利于保证仪器数据的连续性和完整性,还可提高来台参观人员对台站的了解程度,实现了台站宣传展示和仪器状态监控相结合的功能,目前已应用于丰宁地震台、易县地震台,经过简单配置即可应用于其他前兆台站。

地震现场工作队实时状态可视化系统设计与实现

地震现场工作属于地震应急响应工作的重要内容,对指导应急救援、安置灾民、恢复重建、科学研究等工作具有重要意义。针对地震现场工作队出队后的信息化程度不高,人员、车辆、物资装备等信息的前后方共享滞后情况设计开发了该系统,系统整体可分为数据采集回传、信息储存管理、信息可视化展现3个子系统,采用“Android移动终端APP+web”技术方法,有效实现了出队车辆车速、位置实时显示,人员登载、设备装卸实时记录、音视频即时通讯等系统功能。系统在云南省地震局漾濞6.4级地震现场应急处置工作中得到了应用,为地震现场工作的高效开展提供了助力,提升了地震现场工作的信息化水平,有利满足了前后方协同指挥、综合调度的信息交互需求。

高烈度地震区铁路隧道震害特征与整治研究

研究目的:为明确震后隧道破坏特征,提出合理的高烈度地震区铁路隧道震害整治技术,依托兰新第二双线大梁隧道震后整治工程开展相关研究工作。现场调研探查大梁隧道震后灾害特征,根据物探、钻探情况及现场收集资料,综合评价震损破坏等级,针对隧道震害损坏情况提出针对性的整治技术措施,结合现场试验及实施情况,明确技术措施应用效果,为后续类似工程及隧道抗震设计提供借鉴。研究结论:(1)隧道震后出口段地表裂缝以拉张或挤压特征呈羽状展布,裂缝有明显错台现象;(2)隧道结构破坏受断层影响呈明显空间依赖性,特征效应突出,进口和出口段结构分别向右上方和左下方偏移,断层核心区结构错动、变形破坏严重;(3)地面裂缝可采用分层夯填水泥改良土和灌注砂浆结合的方法处理,针对Ⅴ级、Ⅳ级和Ⅲ级及以下破坏段,分别提出“大刚度圆形衬砌+大预留变形量+减震消能层+节段设计”、“格栅钢架+C40模筑混凝土”和“裂缝封闭+基底注浆”的综合整治方案;(4)现场监测结果表明,隧道全段二衬位移稳定,初期支护和二次衬砌以非对称性受力为主要特点,但整体受力较小,证明了支护方案的有效性和合理性。