Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to descr...Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.展开更多
This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these ...This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these two systems are closely related.When the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region.The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO.Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM.It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena.The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic.These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region.Through these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation.Thus,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.展开更多
Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation (TBO), as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce ...Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation (TBO), as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce a TBO. A simple 5-box model, with almost all the key processes associated with TBO, can produce a TBO by including airsea interactions in the monsoon regions. Despite that, the South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon (SCS/WNPSM), a very important monsoon subsystem, is neglected. In this paper, based on the dynamical framework of 5-box model, the term of SCS/WNPSM has been added and a 6-box model has been developed. Comparing the difference of TBO sensibilities with several key parameters, air-sea coupling coefficient α, SST-thermocline feedback coefficient γand wind-evaporation feedback coefficient λ, between the modified model and original model, TBO is more sensible to the parameters in the new model. The results imply that the eastern Pacific and local wind-evaporation play more important roles in the TBO when including SCS /WNPSM.展开更多
In the Arctic (mainly in its European sector) there is statistically detectable seasonal reversal wind pattern. The combination of seasonally warm (cold) land surfaces in arctic areas together with cool (cool) sea sur...In the Arctic (mainly in its European sector) there is statistically detectable seasonal reversal wind pattern. The combination of seasonally warm (cold) land surfaces in arctic areas together with cool (cool) sea surface of Arctic seas not covered by ice is conducive to the formation of a monsoon like system. On the other hand, the predominance of the cyclonic regime during all seasons makes it difficult to answer the question of whether the Arctic region belongs to the monsoon type pattern. In this study, the monsoon features of atmospheric circulation over the Barents and Kara Seas were analysed. To extract specific monsoon signs, atmospheric circulation systems (separately for areas of each sea) were divided into ten weather types. Their appearance and statistics were compared with indicators of regional circulation. A significant part of intra-annual monsoon variability is associated with the configuration of such modes as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the <em>Scandinavia</em> teleconnection patterns. For example, during the winter season, the monsoon currents (from land to sea) occur only with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index. With the prevalence of other modes of variability, the direction of the winds can be different, and the regular monsoon circulation pattern is changed by chaotic regime. In summer, northern streams (from sea to land) are realized on the western periphery of cyclones, regenerating and stabilizing over the Kara Sea. As for anomalies, the nature of the monsoons is manifested in the statistics of extreme winds even without selecting data on the regimes of variability. So, in winter, maximum speeds fall on the southern streams, and in the summer—on the northern ones. Large precipitation anomalies during all seasons, as one would expect, are encountered most often with the cyclonic type of circulation.展开更多
Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low...Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong.展开更多
Based on geographic division over the western North Pacific(WNP),the interdecadal relationships between summer monsoon,sea surface temperature(SST) and tropical cyclones activity(including number,track and intensity) ...Based on geographic division over the western North Pacific(WNP),the interdecadal relationships between summer monsoon,sea surface temperature(SST) and tropical cyclones activity(including number,track and intensity) are examined.In the past several decades,the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) and tropical westerlies contribute to the interdecadal variation of TC number in the northwest and southeast of WNP respectively.The increased TC occurrence density to the east of Philippines related to TC track appears during the 1990s,in terms of both steer flow induced by WPSH and genesis location.From the interdecadal viewpoint,the tendency of TC intensity,measured by averaged accumulated cyclone energy,does well agree with that of SST,implying that SST plays an important role in TC intensity.展开更多
用奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)方法,给出了四季年代际和年际时间尺度上北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)的显著遥相关。用SVD主模态时间系数构造了海温异常指数I,分析了它们与同期亚太夏季...用奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)方法,给出了四季年代际和年际时间尺度上北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)的显著遥相关。用SVD主模态时间系数构造了海温异常指数I,分析了它们与同期亚太夏季风和我国东部夏季降水异常的关系。结果表明:两大洋间的SST遥联在年际、年代际时间尺度上都与亚太夏季风相关,其中,年际尺度的两大洋SST遥联与长江流域的降水存在显著相关。展开更多
基金An open project of Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disasters for Jiangsu Province(KLME0708)Natural Science Foundation of China(90915002+2 种基金4077504740775058)A project of Young Talents for Fujian Province(2007F3019)
文摘Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.
基金supported by the Key Program of theChinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q03-3)the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY200906018)the Na- tional Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406)
文摘This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these two systems are closely related.When the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region.The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO.Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM.It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena.The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic.These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region.Through these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation.Thus,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40505019) and the 0pen Research Fund of Laboratory of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No CMATG2006L03).
文摘Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation (TBO), as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce a TBO. A simple 5-box model, with almost all the key processes associated with TBO, can produce a TBO by including airsea interactions in the monsoon regions. Despite that, the South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon (SCS/WNPSM), a very important monsoon subsystem, is neglected. In this paper, based on the dynamical framework of 5-box model, the term of SCS/WNPSM has been added and a 6-box model has been developed. Comparing the difference of TBO sensibilities with several key parameters, air-sea coupling coefficient α, SST-thermocline feedback coefficient γand wind-evaporation feedback coefficient λ, between the modified model and original model, TBO is more sensible to the parameters in the new model. The results imply that the eastern Pacific and local wind-evaporation play more important roles in the TBO when including SCS /WNPSM.
文摘In the Arctic (mainly in its European sector) there is statistically detectable seasonal reversal wind pattern. The combination of seasonally warm (cold) land surfaces in arctic areas together with cool (cool) sea surface of Arctic seas not covered by ice is conducive to the formation of a monsoon like system. On the other hand, the predominance of the cyclonic regime during all seasons makes it difficult to answer the question of whether the Arctic region belongs to the monsoon type pattern. In this study, the monsoon features of atmospheric circulation over the Barents and Kara Seas were analysed. To extract specific monsoon signs, atmospheric circulation systems (separately for areas of each sea) were divided into ten weather types. Their appearance and statistics were compared with indicators of regional circulation. A significant part of intra-annual monsoon variability is associated with the configuration of such modes as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the <em>Scandinavia</em> teleconnection patterns. For example, during the winter season, the monsoon currents (from land to sea) occur only with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index. With the prevalence of other modes of variability, the direction of the winds can be different, and the regular monsoon circulation pattern is changed by chaotic regime. In summer, northern streams (from sea to land) are realized on the western periphery of cyclones, regenerating and stabilizing over the Kara Sea. As for anomalies, the nature of the monsoons is manifested in the statistics of extreme winds even without selecting data on the regimes of variability. So, in winter, maximum speeds fall on the southern streams, and in the summer—on the northern ones. Large precipitation anomalies during all seasons, as one would expect, are encountered most often with the cyclonic type of circulation.
基金Specialized Research Project of Novel Meteorological Technologies for Forecasters from China Meteorological Administration (CMATG2007Y04)Science Bureau of Guangdong (2006B37202004)+1 种基金Guangdong Meteorological Bureau (2008A02)Specialized Project for Industries for Public Well-being(Meteorological Sector) (GYHY201006018)
文摘Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong.
基金Supported by Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No.GYHY200806009)National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421505)
文摘Based on geographic division over the western North Pacific(WNP),the interdecadal relationships between summer monsoon,sea surface temperature(SST) and tropical cyclones activity(including number,track and intensity) are examined.In the past several decades,the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) and tropical westerlies contribute to the interdecadal variation of TC number in the northwest and southeast of WNP respectively.The increased TC occurrence density to the east of Philippines related to TC track appears during the 1990s,in terms of both steer flow induced by WPSH and genesis location.From the interdecadal viewpoint,the tendency of TC intensity,measured by averaged accumulated cyclone energy,does well agree with that of SST,implying that SST plays an important role in TC intensity.
文摘用奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)方法,给出了四季年代际和年际时间尺度上北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)的显著遥相关。用SVD主模态时间系数构造了海温异常指数I,分析了它们与同期亚太夏季风和我国东部夏季降水异常的关系。结果表明:两大洋间的SST遥联在年际、年代际时间尺度上都与亚太夏季风相关,其中,年际尺度的两大洋SST遥联与长江流域的降水存在显著相关。