This paper reviews works on the dynamic analysis of flexible and rigid pavements under moving vehicles on the basis of continuum-based plane strain models and linear theories.The purpose of this review is to provide i...This paper reviews works on the dynamic analysis of flexible and rigid pavements under moving vehicles on the basis of continuum-based plane strain models and linear theories.The purpose of this review is to provide in-formation about the existing works on the subject,critically discuss them and make suggestions for further research.The reviewed papers are presented on the basis of the various models for pavement-vehicle systems and the various methods for dynamically analyzing these systems.Flexible pavements are modeled by a homogeneous or layered half-plane with isotropic or anisotropic and linear elastic,viscoelastic or poroelastic material behavior.Rigid pavements are modeled by a beam or plate on a homogeneous or layered half-plane with material properties like the ones for flexible pavements.The vehicles are modeled as concentrated or distributed over a finite area loads moving with constant or time dependent speed.The above pavement-vehicle models are dynamically analyzed by analytical,analytical/numerical or purely numerical methods working in the time or frequency domain.Representative examples are presented to illustrate the models and methods of analysis,demonstrate their merits and assess the effects of the various parameters on pavement response.The paper closes with con-clusions and suggestions for further research in the area.The significance of this research effort has to do with the presentation of the existing literature on the subject in a critical and easy to understand way with the aid of representative examples and the identification of new research areas.展开更多
In this study,the dynamic response of an elastically connected multi-beam structure subjected to a moving load with elastic boundary conditions is investigated.The boundary conditions and properties of each beam vary,...In this study,the dynamic response of an elastically connected multi-beam structure subjected to a moving load with elastic boundary conditions is investigated.The boundary conditions and properties of each beam vary,and the difficulty of solving the motion equation is reduced by using a Fourier series plus three special transformations.By examining a high-speed railway(HSR)with mixed boundary conditions,the rationality for the newly proposed method is verified,the difference in simulated multiple-beam models with different beam numbers is explored,and the influence of material parameters and load speed on the dynamic response of multiple-beam structures is examined.Results suggest that the number of beams in the model should be as close to the actual beam number as possible.Models with an appropriate beam number can be used to describe in detail the dynamic response of the structure.Neglecting the track-structure can overestimate the resonant speed of a high-speed railway,simply-supported beam bridge.The effective interval of foundation stiffness(EIFS)can provide a reference for future engineering designs.展开更多
In this paper,we investigated the profitability of technical analysis as applied to the stock markets of the BRICS member nations.In addition,we searched for evidence that technical analysis and fundamental analysis c...In this paper,we investigated the profitability of technical analysis as applied to the stock markets of the BRICS member nations.In addition,we searched for evidence that technical analysis and fundamental analysis can complement each other in these markets.To implement this research,we created a comprehensive portfolio containing the assets traded in the markets of each BRICS member.We developed an automated trading system that simulated transactions in this portfolio using technical analysis techniques.Our assessment updated the findings of previous research by including more recent data and adding South Africa,the latest member included in BRICS.Our results showed that the returns obtained by the automated system,on average,exceeded the value invested.There were groups of assets from each country that performed well above the portfolio average,surpassing the returns obtained using a buy and hold strategy.The returns from the sample portfolio were very strong in Russia and India.We also found that technical analysis can help fundamental analysis identify the most dynamic companies in the stock market.展开更多
Segmentally assembled bridges are increasinglyfinding engineering applications in recent years due to their unique advantages,especially as urban viaducts.Vehicle loads are one of the most important variable loads acti...Segmentally assembled bridges are increasinglyfinding engineering applications in recent years due to their unique advantages,especially as urban viaducts.Vehicle loads are one of the most important variable loads acting on bridge structures.Accordingly,the influence of overloaded vehicles on existing assembled bridge structures is an urgent concern at present.This paper establishes thefinite element model of the segmentally assembled bridge based on ABAQUS software and analyzes the influence of vehicle overload on an assembled girder bridge struc-ture.First,afinite element model corresponding to the target bridge is established based on ABAQUS software,and the load is controlled to simulate vehicle movement in each area of the traveling zone at different times.Sec-ond,the key cross-sections of segmental girder bridges are monitored in real time based on the force character-istics of continuous girder bridges,and they are compared with the simulation results.Finally,a material damage ontology model is introduced,and the structural damage caused by different overloading rates is compared and analyzed.Results show that thefinite element modeling method is accurate by comparing with on-site measured data,and it is suitable for the numerical simulation of segmental girder bridges;Dynamic sensors installed at 1/4L,1/2L,and 3/4L of the segmental girder main beams could be used to identify the dynamic response of segmental girder bridges;The bottom plate of the segmental girder bridge is mostly damaged at the position where the length of the precast beam section changes and the midspan position.With the increase in load,damage in the direction of the bridge develops faster than that in the direction of the transverse bridge.Thefindings of this study can guide maintenance departments in the management and maintenance of bridges and vehicles.展开更多
BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their s...BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.展开更多
The urban-rural integrated area in Sanshui District of Foshan City was selected for research, and the impact of landscape pattern around the No.269 provincial highway was analyzed based on the land-use data in 2014 us...The urban-rural integrated area in Sanshui District of Foshan City was selected for research, and the impact of landscape pattern around the No.269 provincial highway was analyzed based on the land-use data in 2014 using the spatial analysis in GIS and the moving window method. The results showed that:(1) within the scope of a 2 km-range buffer zone, with a low degree of heterogeneity, land for construction use and water area were the dominant land-use types, while with a high degree of fragmentation, cultivated land, wooded land, grassland, garden land, land for other farm uses, and land unused were scattered;(2) the 250-m square moving window could well detect the change characteristics of landscape pattern on both sides of the road;(3) the gradient analysis of landscape pattern in urban-rural integrated area, which was conducted with the aid of a 750-m transect on both sides of the road, indicated that there were significant differences between landscape indexes both in the urban-rural integrated area and on both sides of the road;(4) the road that had an obvious cutting and fragmentation impact on the landscape was an important factor leading to the increasing fragmentation and heterogeneity to regional landscapes.展开更多
From the macroscopic point of view, expressions involving reservoir and operational parameters are established for investigating the stability of moving interface in piston- and non-piston-like displacements. In the c...From the macroscopic point of view, expressions involving reservoir and operational parameters are established for investigating the stability of moving interface in piston- and non-piston-like displacements. In the case of axisymmetrical piston-like displacement, the stability is related to the moving interface position and water to oil mobility ratio. The capillary effect on the stability of moving interface depends on whether or not the moving interface is already stable and correlates with the wettability of the reservoir rock. In the case of non-piston-like displacement, the stability of the front is governed by both the relative permeability and the mobility ratio.展开更多
Single-walled carbon nanotubes(SWCNTs)are receiving immense research attention due to their tremendous thermal,electrical,structural and mechanical properties.In this paper,an exact solution of the dynamic response of...Single-walled carbon nanotubes(SWCNTs)are receiving immense research attention due to their tremendous thermal,electrical,structural and mechanical properties.In this paper,an exact solution of the dynamic response of SWCNT with a moving uniformly distributed load is presented.The SWCNT is modelled via the theories of Bernoulli-Euler-thermal elasticity mechanics and solved using Integral transforms.The developed closed-form solution in the present work is compared with existing results and excellent agreements are established.The parametric studies show that as the magnitude of the pressure distribution at the surface increases,the deflection associated with the single walled nanotube increases at any mode whilst a corresponding increase in temperature and foundation parameter have an attenuating effect on deflection.Moreover,an increase in the Winkler parameter,as well as a decrease in the SWCNT mass increases its frequency of vibration.Furthermore,an increase in the speed of the external agent decreases the total external pressure as a result of the removal of dead loads.The present work is envisaged to improve the application of SWCNT as nanodevices for structural,electrical and mechanical systems.展开更多
The urban slow traffic system refers to the traffic system in the city that can allow people to walk, ride, travel by bus and other slow travel. Through 4,728 papers on slow moving system in China from 2000 to 2020 in...The urban slow traffic system refers to the traffic system in the city that can allow people to walk, ride, travel by bus and other slow travel. Through 4,728 papers on slow moving system in China from 2000 to 2020 included in CNKI, analysis and summary of literature publishing trend, research strength,research focus and development trend are conducted based on CiteSpace software. It is expected to provide reference for future research in this field.展开更多
In the present study, finite element dynamic analysis or time history analysis of two-span beams subjected to asynchronous multi-support motions is carried out by using the moving support finite element. The elemental...In the present study, finite element dynamic analysis or time history analysis of two-span beams subjected to asynchronous multi-support motions is carried out by using the moving support finite element. The elemental equation of the element is based on total displacements and is derived under the concept of the quasi-static displacement decomposition. The use of moving support element shows that the element is very simple and convenient to represent continuous beam moving, deforming and vibrating simultaneously due to support motions. The comparison between the numerical results and analytical solutions indicates that the FE result agrees with the analytical solution.展开更多
Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) with integrated moving-window (MW) waveband screening was applied to the discriminant analysis of liquor brands with near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Luzhou Laojia...Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) with integrated moving-window (MW) waveband screening was applied to the discriminant analysis of liquor brands with near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Luzhou Laojiao, a popular liquor with strong fragrant flavor, was used as the identified liquor brand (160 samples, negative, 52 vol alcoholicity). Liquors of 10 other brands with strong fragrant flavor were used as the interferential brands (200 samples, positive, 52 vol alcoholicity). The Kennard-Stone algorithm was used for the division of modeling samples to achieve uniformity and representativeness. Based on the MW-PLS-DA, a simplified optimal model set with 157 wavebands was further proposed. This set contained five types of wavebands corresponding to the NIR absorption bands of water, ethanol, and other micronutrients (i.e., acids, aldehydes, phenols, and aromatic compounds) in liquor for practical choice. Using five selected simple models with 4775 - 4239, 7804 - 6569, 6264 - 5844, 9435 - 7896, and 12066 - 10373 cm-1, the validation recognition rates were obtained as 99.3% or higher. Results show good prediction performance and low model complexity, and also provided a valuable reference for designing small dedicated instruments. The proposed method is a promising tool for large-scale inspection of liquor food safety.展开更多
Schema theory is the first one to explain the process of reading comprehension theory,thus it has a great influence onthe reading teaching.This paper,with a brief introduction of schema theory,and based on the schema ...Schema theory is the first one to explain the process of reading comprehension theory,thus it has a great influence onthe reading teaching.This paper,with a brief introduction of schema theory,and based on the schema mechanism analysis,puts for-ward its application in the China English reading teaching strategies.展开更多
This paper presents a novel approach to identify and correct the gross errors in the microelectromechanical system (MEMS) gyroscope used in ground vehicles by means of time series analysis. According to the characte...This paper presents a novel approach to identify and correct the gross errors in the microelectromechanical system (MEMS) gyroscope used in ground vehicles by means of time series analysis. According to the characteristics of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is roughly constructed. The rough model is optimized by combining with Akaike's information criterion (A/C), and the parameters are estimated based on the least squares algorithm. After validation testing, the model is utilized to forecast the next output on the basis of the previous measurement. When the difference between the measurement and its prediction exceeds the defined threshold, the measurement is identified as a gross error and remedied by its prediction. A case study on the yaw rate is performed to illustrate the developed algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively distinguish gross errors and make some reasonable remedies.展开更多
This study mainly uses the move and step analysis to conduct a contrastive genre analysis on the selected 20 Chinese ad-mission brochures(CABs) and 20 American admission brochures(AABs).Differences in moves,move seque...This study mainly uses the move and step analysis to conduct a contrastive genre analysis on the selected 20 Chinese ad-mission brochures(CABs) and 20 American admission brochures(AABs).Differences in moves,move sequences and step arrange-ments have revealed themselves in this comparison.Firstly,Chinese university admission brochures cast more focus on basic infor-mation about the university,the application procedure and admission criteria,while American universities,besides offering such in-formation,also emphasize the promotional function of the admission brochures.They use appealing and creative moves to commer-cially‘sell'advantages of the university to the potential applicants.Secondly,based on Kress & van Leeuwen's visual grammarsymbolic meaning,images and colors in admission brochures are also explored and analyzed as language.For one thing,after count-ing the frequency of the four categories of images,namely portrait,campus scenery,campus life pictures and graphs,it is foundthat,compared with CABs,AABs have a highly more obvious tendency in using images.The images are used as an effective tool toincrease the sense of credibility,identity-recognition,attract reader's attention,and help understanding,making the facts and in-formation more intuitive.For another thing,the main colors used in the brochures are yet another noticeable feature.Especially inAmerican brochures,universities tend to use their‘traditional colors' in the brochure to achieve a sense of consistency.Some Chi-nese brochures also follow this promotional strategy,yet a large percentage of them do not use any recognizable colors other thanthe printed black and white.Based on these differences,suggestions are put forward from perspectives including choice of movesand steps to improve the quality of CABs,hopefully raising their acceptance in the international level.展开更多
A mathematical model is developed for numerical analysis of thermal process in TIG welding with a moving arc, which is considered the double-elliptic distribution for both arc heat flux and arc pressure. An adjusting ...A mathematical model is developed for numerical analysis of thermal process in TIG welding with a moving arc, which is considered the double-elliptic distribution for both arc heat flux and arc pressure. An adjusting factor is introduced into the expression of arc pressure. The domain within which the arc heat flux is distributed non-symmetrically due to arc moving is selected appropriately, and three conditions for the domain to meet are described. The latent heat is taken into consideration by liquid fraction method. The dynamic development of weld pool geometry during TIG welding is analyzed numerically, and the effect of arc moving on the weld pool geometry is discussed. The experimental results show that the numerical analysis accuracy is obviously improved through taking the above-mentioned measures.展开更多
In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis (MC- R/S) and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis (MC-V/S) is made. The results clearly indicate...In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis (MC- R/S) and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis (MC-V/S) is made. The results clearly indicate that the operating efficiency of the MC-R/S algorithm is higher than that of the MC-V/S algorithm. In our numerical test, the computer time consumed by MC-V/S is approximately 25 times that by MC-R/S for an identical window size in artificial data. Except for the difference in operating efficiency, there are no significant differences in performance between MC-R/S and MC-V/S for the abrupt dynamic change detection. Mc-R/s and MC-V/S both display some degree of anti-noise ability. However, it is important to consider the influences of strong noise on the detection results of MC-R/S and MC-V/S in practical application展开更多
The modal method is applied to analyze coupled vibration of belt drive systems. A belt drive system is a hybrid system consisting of continuous belts modeled as strings as well as discrete pulleys and a tensioner arm....The modal method is applied to analyze coupled vibration of belt drive systems. A belt drive system is a hybrid system consisting of continuous belts modeled as strings as well as discrete pulleys and a tensioner arm. The characteristic equation of the system is derived from the governing equation. Numerical results demenstrate the effects of the transport speed and the initial tension on natural frequencies.展开更多
A Bernoulli-Euler beam mechanism for static analysis of large displacement,large rotation but small strain planar tapered beam structures is proposed using the Updated Lagrangian formulation and the moving coordinate ...A Bernoulli-Euler beam mechanism for static analysis of large displacement,large rotation but small strain planar tapered beam structures is proposed using the Updated Lagrangian formulation and the moving coordinate method.The object beam is the tapered one whose profile is assumed to be varying linearly.From the governing differential equation of lateral deflection including second-order effects by beam-column theory,the geometric nonlinear tangent elemental stiffness matrix is derived.The nonlinear effect of the bending distortions on the axial action is considered to manifest itself as an axial change in length.The aforementioned stiffness matrix is amended,by developing the auxiliary stiffness of bowing effect.The moving coordinate method is employed for obtaining the large displacement total equilibrium equations,and the hinged-hinged moving coordinate system is constructed at the last updated configuration.The multiple load steps Newton-Raphson iteration is adopted for the solution of the nonlinear equations.The validity and efficiency of the proposed method are shown by solving various typical numerical examples.展开更多
Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry(GC-MS) and the chemometric resolution method(alternative moving window factor analysis,AMWFA) were used for comparative analysis of volatile constituents in herbal pair(HP) flos lo...Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry(GC-MS) and the chemometric resolution method(alternative moving window factor analysis,AMWFA) were used for comparative analysis of volatile constituents in herbal pair(HP) flos lonicerae-caulis lonicerae(FL-CL) and its single herbs.The temperature-programmed retention index(PTRI) was also employed for the identification of compounds.In total,44,39,and 50 volatile chemical components in volatile oil of FL,CL and HP FL-CL were separately determined qualitatively and quantitatively,accounting for 87.22%,94.54% and 90.08% total contents of volatile oil of FL,CL and HP FL-CL,respectively.The results show that there are 32 common volatile constituents between HP FL-CL and single herb FL,33 common volatile constituents between HP FL-CL and single herb CL,and 10 new constituents in the volatile oil of HP FL-CL.展开更多
文摘This paper reviews works on the dynamic analysis of flexible and rigid pavements under moving vehicles on the basis of continuum-based plane strain models and linear theories.The purpose of this review is to provide in-formation about the existing works on the subject,critically discuss them and make suggestions for further research.The reviewed papers are presented on the basis of the various models for pavement-vehicle systems and the various methods for dynamically analyzing these systems.Flexible pavements are modeled by a homogeneous or layered half-plane with isotropic or anisotropic and linear elastic,viscoelastic or poroelastic material behavior.Rigid pavements are modeled by a beam or plate on a homogeneous or layered half-plane with material properties like the ones for flexible pavements.The vehicles are modeled as concentrated or distributed over a finite area loads moving with constant or time dependent speed.The above pavement-vehicle models are dynamically analyzed by analytical,analytical/numerical or purely numerical methods working in the time or frequency domain.Representative examples are presented to illustrate the models and methods of analysis,demonstrate their merits and assess the effects of the various parameters on pavement response.The paper closes with con-clusions and suggestions for further research in the area.The significance of this research effort has to do with the presentation of the existing literature on the subject in a critical and easy to understand way with the aid of representative examples and the identification of new research areas.
基金Supported by:National Natural Science Foundations of China under Grant Nos.U1934207 and 51778630the Hunan Innovative Provincial Construction Project under Grant No.2019RS3009+1 种基金the Innovation-driven Plan in Central South University under Grant No.2020zzts159the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Central South University under Grant No.2018zzts189。
文摘In this study,the dynamic response of an elastically connected multi-beam structure subjected to a moving load with elastic boundary conditions is investigated.The boundary conditions and properties of each beam vary,and the difficulty of solving the motion equation is reduced by using a Fourier series plus three special transformations.By examining a high-speed railway(HSR)with mixed boundary conditions,the rationality for the newly proposed method is verified,the difference in simulated multiple-beam models with different beam numbers is explored,and the influence of material parameters and load speed on the dynamic response of multiple-beam structures is examined.Results suggest that the number of beams in the model should be as close to the actual beam number as possible.Models with an appropriate beam number can be used to describe in detail the dynamic response of the structure.Neglecting the track-structure can overestimate the resonant speed of a high-speed railway,simply-supported beam bridge.The effective interval of foundation stiffness(EIFS)can provide a reference for future engineering designs.
文摘In this paper,we investigated the profitability of technical analysis as applied to the stock markets of the BRICS member nations.In addition,we searched for evidence that technical analysis and fundamental analysis can complement each other in these markets.To implement this research,we created a comprehensive portfolio containing the assets traded in the markets of each BRICS member.We developed an automated trading system that simulated transactions in this portfolio using technical analysis techniques.Our assessment updated the findings of previous research by including more recent data and adding South Africa,the latest member included in BRICS.Our results showed that the returns obtained by the automated system,on average,exceeded the value invested.There were groups of assets from each country that performed well above the portfolio average,surpassing the returns obtained using a buy and hold strategy.The returns from the sample portfolio were very strong in Russia and India.We also found that technical analysis can help fundamental analysis identify the most dynamic companies in the stock market.
基金supported in part by the Key Research Projects of Higher Education Institutions in Henan Province(Grant No.24A560021)in part by the Henan Postdoctoral Foundation(Grant No.202102015).
文摘Segmentally assembled bridges are increasinglyfinding engineering applications in recent years due to their unique advantages,especially as urban viaducts.Vehicle loads are one of the most important variable loads acting on bridge structures.Accordingly,the influence of overloaded vehicles on existing assembled bridge structures is an urgent concern at present.This paper establishes thefinite element model of the segmentally assembled bridge based on ABAQUS software and analyzes the influence of vehicle overload on an assembled girder bridge struc-ture.First,afinite element model corresponding to the target bridge is established based on ABAQUS software,and the load is controlled to simulate vehicle movement in each area of the traveling zone at different times.Sec-ond,the key cross-sections of segmental girder bridges are monitored in real time based on the force character-istics of continuous girder bridges,and they are compared with the simulation results.Finally,a material damage ontology model is introduced,and the structural damage caused by different overloading rates is compared and analyzed.Results show that thefinite element modeling method is accurate by comparing with on-site measured data,and it is suitable for the numerical simulation of segmental girder bridges;Dynamic sensors installed at 1/4L,1/2L,and 3/4L of the segmental girder main beams could be used to identify the dynamic response of segmental girder bridges;The bottom plate of the segmental girder bridge is mostly damaged at the position where the length of the precast beam section changes and the midspan position.With the increase in load,damage in the direction of the bridge develops faster than that in the direction of the transverse bridge.Thefindings of this study can guide maintenance departments in the management and maintenance of bridges and vehicles.
基金Supported by the Key Scientific Research Project of Universities in Henan Province,No.21A330004Natural Science Foundation in Henan Province,No.222300420265.
文摘BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.
基金Sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671160)
文摘The urban-rural integrated area in Sanshui District of Foshan City was selected for research, and the impact of landscape pattern around the No.269 provincial highway was analyzed based on the land-use data in 2014 using the spatial analysis in GIS and the moving window method. The results showed that:(1) within the scope of a 2 km-range buffer zone, with a low degree of heterogeneity, land for construction use and water area were the dominant land-use types, while with a high degree of fragmentation, cultivated land, wooded land, grassland, garden land, land for other farm uses, and land unused were scattered;(2) the 250-m square moving window could well detect the change characteristics of landscape pattern on both sides of the road;(3) the gradient analysis of landscape pattern in urban-rural integrated area, which was conducted with the aid of a 750-m transect on both sides of the road, indicated that there were significant differences between landscape indexes both in the urban-rural integrated area and on both sides of the road;(4) the road that had an obvious cutting and fragmentation impact on the landscape was an important factor leading to the increasing fragmentation and heterogeneity to regional landscapes.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (2005CB221300)the Innovative Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KJCX-SW-L08)
文摘From the macroscopic point of view, expressions involving reservoir and operational parameters are established for investigating the stability of moving interface in piston- and non-piston-like displacements. In the case of axisymmetrical piston-like displacement, the stability is related to the moving interface position and water to oil mobility ratio. The capillary effect on the stability of moving interface depends on whether or not the moving interface is already stable and correlates with the wettability of the reservoir rock. In the case of non-piston-like displacement, the stability of the front is governed by both the relative permeability and the mobility ratio.
文摘Single-walled carbon nanotubes(SWCNTs)are receiving immense research attention due to their tremendous thermal,electrical,structural and mechanical properties.In this paper,an exact solution of the dynamic response of SWCNT with a moving uniformly distributed load is presented.The SWCNT is modelled via the theories of Bernoulli-Euler-thermal elasticity mechanics and solved using Integral transforms.The developed closed-form solution in the present work is compared with existing results and excellent agreements are established.The parametric studies show that as the magnitude of the pressure distribution at the surface increases,the deflection associated with the single walled nanotube increases at any mode whilst a corresponding increase in temperature and foundation parameter have an attenuating effect on deflection.Moreover,an increase in the Winkler parameter,as well as a decrease in the SWCNT mass increases its frequency of vibration.Furthermore,an increase in the speed of the external agent decreases the total external pressure as a result of the removal of dead loads.The present work is envisaged to improve the application of SWCNT as nanodevices for structural,electrical and mechanical systems.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51708004)North China University of Technology YuY ou Talent Training Program (215051360020XN160/009)North China University of Technology Basal Research Fund (110052972027/154)。
文摘The urban slow traffic system refers to the traffic system in the city that can allow people to walk, ride, travel by bus and other slow travel. Through 4,728 papers on slow moving system in China from 2000 to 2020 included in CNKI, analysis and summary of literature publishing trend, research strength,research focus and development trend are conducted based on CiteSpace software. It is expected to provide reference for future research in this field.
文摘In the present study, finite element dynamic analysis or time history analysis of two-span beams subjected to asynchronous multi-support motions is carried out by using the moving support finite element. The elemental equation of the element is based on total displacements and is derived under the concept of the quasi-static displacement decomposition. The use of moving support element shows that the element is very simple and convenient to represent continuous beam moving, deforming and vibrating simultaneously due to support motions. The comparison between the numerical results and analytical solutions indicates that the FE result agrees with the analytical solution.
文摘Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) with integrated moving-window (MW) waveband screening was applied to the discriminant analysis of liquor brands with near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Luzhou Laojiao, a popular liquor with strong fragrant flavor, was used as the identified liquor brand (160 samples, negative, 52 vol alcoholicity). Liquors of 10 other brands with strong fragrant flavor were used as the interferential brands (200 samples, positive, 52 vol alcoholicity). The Kennard-Stone algorithm was used for the division of modeling samples to achieve uniformity and representativeness. Based on the MW-PLS-DA, a simplified optimal model set with 157 wavebands was further proposed. This set contained five types of wavebands corresponding to the NIR absorption bands of water, ethanol, and other micronutrients (i.e., acids, aldehydes, phenols, and aromatic compounds) in liquor for practical choice. Using five selected simple models with 4775 - 4239, 7804 - 6569, 6264 - 5844, 9435 - 7896, and 12066 - 10373 cm-1, the validation recognition rates were obtained as 99.3% or higher. Results show good prediction performance and low model complexity, and also provided a valuable reference for designing small dedicated instruments. The proposed method is a promising tool for large-scale inspection of liquor food safety.
文摘Schema theory is the first one to explain the process of reading comprehension theory,thus it has a great influence onthe reading teaching.This paper,with a brief introduction of schema theory,and based on the schema mechanism analysis,puts for-ward its application in the China English reading teaching strategies.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61273236)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2010239)the Ph.D.Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No.200802861061)
文摘This paper presents a novel approach to identify and correct the gross errors in the microelectromechanical system (MEMS) gyroscope used in ground vehicles by means of time series analysis. According to the characteristics of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is roughly constructed. The rough model is optimized by combining with Akaike's information criterion (A/C), and the parameters are estimated based on the least squares algorithm. After validation testing, the model is utilized to forecast the next output on the basis of the previous measurement. When the difference between the measurement and its prediction exceeds the defined threshold, the measurement is identified as a gross error and remedied by its prediction. A case study on the yaw rate is performed to illustrate the developed algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively distinguish gross errors and make some reasonable remedies.
文摘This study mainly uses the move and step analysis to conduct a contrastive genre analysis on the selected 20 Chinese ad-mission brochures(CABs) and 20 American admission brochures(AABs).Differences in moves,move sequences and step arrange-ments have revealed themselves in this comparison.Firstly,Chinese university admission brochures cast more focus on basic infor-mation about the university,the application procedure and admission criteria,while American universities,besides offering such in-formation,also emphasize the promotional function of the admission brochures.They use appealing and creative moves to commer-cially‘sell'advantages of the university to the potential applicants.Secondly,based on Kress & van Leeuwen's visual grammarsymbolic meaning,images and colors in admission brochures are also explored and analyzed as language.For one thing,after count-ing the frequency of the four categories of images,namely portrait,campus scenery,campus life pictures and graphs,it is foundthat,compared with CABs,AABs have a highly more obvious tendency in using images.The images are used as an effective tool toincrease the sense of credibility,identity-recognition,attract reader's attention,and help understanding,making the facts and in-formation more intuitive.For another thing,the main colors used in the brochures are yet another noticeable feature.Especially inAmerican brochures,universities tend to use their‘traditional colors' in the brochure to achieve a sense of consistency.Some Chi-nese brochures also follow this promotional strategy,yet a large percentage of them do not use any recognizable colors other thanthe printed black and white.Based on these differences,suggestions are put forward from perspectives including choice of movesand steps to improve the quality of CABs,hopefully raising their acceptance in the international level.
基金the financial support for this project from the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.50475131.
文摘A mathematical model is developed for numerical analysis of thermal process in TIG welding with a moving arc, which is considered the double-elliptic distribution for both arc heat flux and arc pressure. An adjusting factor is introduced into the expression of arc pressure. The domain within which the arc heat flux is distributed non-symmetrically due to arc moving is selected appropriately, and three conditions for the domain to meet are described. The latent heat is taken into consideration by liquid fraction method. The dynamic development of weld pool geometry during TIG welding is analyzed numerically, and the effect of arc moving on the weld pool geometry is discussed. The experimental results show that the numerical analysis accuracy is obviously improved through taking the above-mentioned measures.
基金Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955902)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41275074,41475073,and 41175084)
文摘In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis (MC- R/S) and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis (MC-V/S) is made. The results clearly indicate that the operating efficiency of the MC-R/S algorithm is higher than that of the MC-V/S algorithm. In our numerical test, the computer time consumed by MC-V/S is approximately 25 times that by MC-R/S for an identical window size in artificial data. Except for the difference in operating efficiency, there are no significant differences in performance between MC-R/S and MC-V/S for the abrupt dynamic change detection. Mc-R/s and MC-V/S both display some degree of anti-noise ability. However, it is important to consider the influences of strong noise on the detection results of MC-R/S and MC-V/S in practical application
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.10672092 and 10725209)Scientific Research Project of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(No.07ZZ07)Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project(No.Y0103)
文摘The modal method is applied to analyze coupled vibration of belt drive systems. A belt drive system is a hybrid system consisting of continuous belts modeled as strings as well as discrete pulleys and a tensioner arm. The characteristic equation of the system is derived from the governing equation. Numerical results demenstrate the effects of the transport speed and the initial tension on natural frequencies.
基金National Key Technology R & D Program,China (No.2006BAJ12B03-2)
文摘A Bernoulli-Euler beam mechanism for static analysis of large displacement,large rotation but small strain planar tapered beam structures is proposed using the Updated Lagrangian formulation and the moving coordinate method.The object beam is the tapered one whose profile is assumed to be varying linearly.From the governing differential equation of lateral deflection including second-order effects by beam-column theory,the geometric nonlinear tangent elemental stiffness matrix is derived.The nonlinear effect of the bending distortions on the axial action is considered to manifest itself as an axial change in length.The aforementioned stiffness matrix is amended,by developing the auxiliary stiffness of bowing effect.The moving coordinate method is employed for obtaining the large displacement total equilibrium equations,and the hinged-hinged moving coordinate system is constructed at the last updated configuration.The multiple load steps Newton-Raphson iteration is adopted for the solution of the nonlinear equations.The validity and efficiency of the proposed method are shown by solving various typical numerical examples.
基金Project(20976017) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry(GC-MS) and the chemometric resolution method(alternative moving window factor analysis,AMWFA) were used for comparative analysis of volatile constituents in herbal pair(HP) flos lonicerae-caulis lonicerae(FL-CL) and its single herbs.The temperature-programmed retention index(PTRI) was also employed for the identification of compounds.In total,44,39,and 50 volatile chemical components in volatile oil of FL,CL and HP FL-CL were separately determined qualitatively and quantitatively,accounting for 87.22%,94.54% and 90.08% total contents of volatile oil of FL,CL and HP FL-CL,respectively.The results show that there are 32 common volatile constituents between HP FL-CL and single herb FL,33 common volatile constituents between HP FL-CL and single herb CL,and 10 new constituents in the volatile oil of HP FL-CL.