Refined Modeling of Water Temperature and Salinity in Coastal Areas

The prediction of water temperature and salinity in coastal areas is one of the essential tasks in water quality control and management. This paper takes a refined forecasting model of water temperature and salinity in coastal areas as a basic target. Based on the Navier-Stokes equation and k-epsilon turbulence model, taking the characteristics of coastal areas into account, a refined model for water temperature and salinity in coastal areas has been developed to simulate the seasonal variations of water temperature and salinity fields in the Hakata Bay, Japan. The model takes into account the effects of a variety of hydrodynamic and meteorological factors on water temperature and salinity. It predicts daily fluctuations in water temperature and salinity at different depths throughout the year. The model has been calibrated well against the data set of historical water temperature and salinity observations in the Hakata Bay, Japan.

Evolution and modeling of mine water inflow and hazard characteristics in southern coalfields of China:A case of Meitanba mine

In this paper,the hydrogeological characteristics in the southern coalfields of China are first briefly outlined.Then,taking the Meitanba mine as an example,the evolution and modeling of mine water inflow are studied.Finally,the hazard characteristics related to mine water and mud inrush are analyzed.The results show that the main mine water sources in the Meitanba mine area are groundwater,surface water and precipitation.The evolution of mine water inflow with time indicates that the water inflow is closely related to the development of karst structures,the amount of water from rainfall infiltration,and the scope of groundwater depression cone.The mine water inflow increases with time due to the increase in mining depth and the expansion of groundwater depression cone.Using the big well method and following the potential superposition principle,a hydrogeological model considering multi-well interactions has been developed to predict the mine water inflow.Based on the monitored data in the Meitanba mine area over a period of nearly 60 years,it is found that with increasing mining depth,the number of water and mud inrush points tended to decrease.However,the average water and mud flow rate per point tended to increase.

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas.As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time,uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas.Taking a typical arid region in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as an example,water yield depth(WYD)and water utilization depth(WUD)from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model and socioeconomic data.The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference(WSDD)and water supply rate(WSR).The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method.The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit,but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation.WYD generally experienced an increasing trend,and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin.WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%,especially in oasis areas.Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased.The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang,and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10^(8)m^(3).This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services,which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation.The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.

Catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model for water and mud inrush and its application in karst tunnels

This paper presents a risk evaluation model of water and mud inrush for tunnel excavation in karst areas.The factors affecting the probabilities of water and mud inrush in karst tunnels are investigated to define the dangerousness of this geological disaster.The losses that are caused by water and mud inrush are taken into consideration to account for its harmfulness.Then a risk evaluation model based on the dangerousness-harmfulness evaluation indicator system is constructed,which is more convincing in comparison with the traditional methods.The catastrophe theory is used to evaluate the risk level of water and mud inrush and it has great advantage in handling problems involving discontinuous catastrophe processes.To validate the proposed approach,the Qiyueshan tunnel of Yichang-Wanzhou Railway is taken as an example in which four target segments are evaluated using the risk evaluation model.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the excavation data,which shows that the risk levels predicted by the proposed approach are in good agreements with that observed in engineering.In conclusion,the catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model is an efficient and effective approach for water and mud inrush in karst tunnels.

Simulating the Saturation Threshold of a Water Environment's Response to Tourist Activities:A Case Study in the Liupan Mountain Eco-tourism Area

The effect of tourism on water environments has received a high degree of interest in the study of eco-tourism.Based on the analysis of the relationship between tourist activities and the water environment in the Liupan Mountain eco-tourism zone,the case study area,a Water Environment of Tourism Area Model(WETAM) is built to simulate the temporal and spatial changes in water quality and the response saturation thresholds under four sewage treatment scenarios.The results imply the following:(1) WETAM performs well in modeling a water environment to represent the dynamic process of water quality change in response to tourist activities.(2) Under four sewage treatment scenarios(fundamental,low,medium,and high),the threshold shows an obvious uptrend.(3) The response threshold of water quality with respect to the interference of tourist activities fluctuates seasonally due to changes in tourist density.(4) The thresholds differ significantly among five tourism functional areas.According to the response saturation threshold of the water environment,effective control based on the scale and intensity of tourist activities is important for a successful transformation of this tourism destination's development strategies.Therefore,the integrated management of water pollution in tourism areas plays a crucial role in sustainable tourism development.

Modelling plant canopy effects on water-heat exchange in the freezingthawing processes of active layer on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The effect of vegetation on the water-heat exchange in the freezing-thawing processes of active layer is one of the key issues in the study of land surface processes and in predicting the response of alpine ecosystems to climate change in permafrost regions. In this study, we used the simultaneous heat and water model to investigate the effects of plant canopy on surface and subsurface hydrothermal dynamics in the Fenghuoshan area of the QinghaiTibet Plateau by changing the leaf area index(LAI) and keeping other variables constant. Results showed that the sensible heat, latent heat and net radiation are increased with an increase in the LAI. However, the ground heat flux decreased with an increasing LAI. The annual total evapotranspiration and vegetation transpiration ranged from-16% to 9% and-100% to 15%, respectively, in response to extremes of doubled and zero LAI, respectively. There was a negative feedback between vegetation and the volumetric unfrozen water content at 0.2 m through changing evapotranspiration. The simulation results of soil temperature and moisture suggest that better vegetation conditions are conducive to maintaining the thermal stability of the underlying permafrost, and the advanced initial thawing time and increasing thawing rate of soil ice with the increase in the LAI may have a great influence on the timing and magnitude of supra-permafrost groundwater. This study quantifies the impact of vegetation change on surface and subsurface hydrothermal processes and provides a basic understanding for evaluating the impact of vegetation degradation on the water-heat exchange in permafrost regions under climate change.

The 3D simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems based on eco-environmental water demand

Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item and unification of groundwater抯 economic, environmental and ecological functions were taken into account. Based on eco-environmental water demand at Da抋n in Jilin province, a three-dimensional simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems was established. All water balance components of groundwater systems in 1998 and 1999 were simulated with this model and the best optimal exploitation scheme of groundwater systems in 2000 was determined, so that groundwater resource was efficiently utilized and good economic, ecologic and social benefits were obtained.

Simulation of Irrigation Water Loss Based on VSMB Model

The low degree of development and utilization as well as the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Huangshui River basin are the main restricting factors of the local agricultural development. The study on the simulation of irrigation water loss based on the VSMB model has very important significance to strengthening regional water management and improving water resource utilization efficiency. Five groundwater wells were set up to carry out the farmland irrigation water infiltration and the experimental study on groundwater dynamic effect. Two soil moisture monitoring sites were set up in two typical plots of Daxia and Guanting irrigation area at the same time and TDR300 was used to monitor four kinds of deep soil moisture( 10 cm,30 cm,50 cm and 70 cm). On this basis,the VSMB model was used to study the irrigation water loss in the irrigation area of Yellow River valley of Qinghai Province,including soil moisture content,the actual evapotranspiration,infiltration,runoff,groundwater buried depth and so on. The results showed that the water consumption caused by soil evaporation and crop transpiration accounted for 46. 4% and 24. 1% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively,and the leakage accounted for 30. 3% and 60. 6% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively,from March 1,2013 to April 30,and from August 1 to September 30. The actual evaporation of the GT- TR1 and GT- TR2 sites in the whole year of 2013 was 632. 6 mm and 646. 9 mm,respectively,and the leakage accounted for 2. 6% and 1. 2% of the total precipitation plus irrigation,respectively. RMSE of the simulation results of the groundwater depth in Daxia irrigation area during the two periods was 92. 3 mm and 27. 7 mm,respectively. And RMSE of the simulation results of the water content of soil profile in the two monitoring sites of Guanting irrigation area was 2. 04% and 5. 81%,respectively,indicating that the simulation results were reliable.

Estimation of mountain block recharge on the northern Tianshan Mountains using numerical modeling

Mountain block recharge(MBR),an important water resource,is a widespread process that recharges lowland aquifers.However,little is known about MBR due to the limited climatic and geologic data in mountainous regions such as the northern central foothills of Tianshan.Here,we present an approach to quantify MBR through the combination of water balance calculations and numerical modeling.MBR calculated from the water balance in the data-limited Tianshan Mountains is employed as a fluid-flux boundary condition in the numerical model of the plain.To verify the performance of the model,mean absolute error and root mean square error were used.Results show that the volume of water that is recharging the aquifer via MBR is 107.29 million m^(3)/yr,accounting for 2.2% of the total precipitation that falls in the mountains.Additionally,53.3% of that precipitation enters the plain aquifer via runoff,totaling 2,652.68 million m^(3)/yr.The lower volume of MBR is attributed to a major range-bounding anticline with apparent low permeability in the Tianshan Mountains.Through numerical modeling of groundwater,MBR coming from bedrock was found to be significant,accounting for 14% of total aquifer recharge in the plain,only after the portion of runoff seepage.This research contributes to a deeper understanding of MBR,and may provide instructions for estimating groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid areas.

湿陷性黄土区输水隧洞盾构施工风险评估

为了提高针对湿陷性黄土区输水隧洞盾构法施工安全评估的可靠性,从人员管理、机械材料、施工技术、施工环境4个方面构建较为完善的施工安全风险评估指标体系;利用灰色-DEMATEL方法对中心度进行处理得到风险指标权重;以风险发生概率和风险损失程度两个维度为基础构建二维云评估模型,其中发生概率由主、客观方法相结合来确定,损失程度通过改进雷达图法从人员伤亡、经济损失、工期延误、功能缺陷和环境影响5个方面来综合确定。将该评估模型运用到引汉济渭工程X输水隧洞盾构法施工项目的安全评估中。结果表明:该项目施工风险评估等级为Ⅱ级,施工安全风险程度较小,评价结果符合工程实际,验证了该评估模型的可行性和有效性。研究成果可为湿陷性黄土区类似输水隧洞盾构法施工安全风险评估提供借鉴和参考。

南水北调中线受水区水资源利用效率及影响因素

为提升南水北调中线工程受水区水资源利用效率,以工程沿线北京、天津2个直辖市和河南、河北18个省辖市共计20个地域单元为研究区域,基于2015—2021年面板数据,采用Super-SBM模型、GML模型及sys-GMM估计法对受水区水资源利用效率进行测度,对影响因素进行识别。结果表明:全区水资源静态利用效率总体偏低但呈波动上升态势,区域差异较大,呈京津板块>河南板块>河北板块格局,空间上呈现以京津冀、郑州2个都市圈为核心向外围逐渐递减的“核心-外围”结构;全区水资源动态利用效率整体呈波动上升趋势,主要源于技术进步,而技术效率作用有限;经济发展水平、水资源禀赋、科技水平、城镇化进程、人口密度与水资源利用效率显著正相关,水污染程度、产业结构、环境规制与水资源利用效率显著负相关。

干旱型浅水三角洲沉积特征及沉积模式——以准噶尔盆地腹部永进地区侏罗系齐古组为例

浅水三角洲是沉积学研究领域的热点,但是干旱气候背景、水体间歇振荡、沉积特征与沉积过程较为复杂的浅水三角洲研究报道较少。综合利用岩心、测井、分析化验和地震等资料,根据现代沉积分析与沉积数值模拟,对准噶尔盆地腹部永进地区侏罗系齐古组开展系统的沉积相研究,建立了齐古组沉积模式。研究表明:(1)中-晚侏罗世准噶尔盆地气候转为干旱,齐古组沉积水体变浅且频繁振荡,1砂组—3砂组发育浅水辫状河三角洲沉积,4砂组物源供给减弱、气候持续干旱,沉积相转变为曲流河三角洲。(2)与湿润气候背景下的浅水三角洲相比干旱型浅水三角洲,水下分流河道变化较快,随着河道延伸逐渐分叉、改道出多种类型的河道砂。三角洲砂体颜色呈红灰间互的变化规律,砂岩岩性较细、成熟度低、分布规模不大。持续干旱的气候条件导致湖盆可容空间不断减小,三角洲朵叶体中几乎不发育河口砂坝,沉积砂体主要为多种形态类型的水下分流河道砂。(3)单一供给河道控制的沉积体规模有限且顺水流方向分异明显,发育高能水下主干河道、中-高能网状分流河道和低能改造型分流河道3种沉积微相。单砂体间连通性较差、储集空间非均质性强,油气勘探开发难度大。

基于数字孪生的LNG港池平面优化设计方法及应用研究

为了实现港池水域设计与数字化的融合,优化港池水域平面设计方案,提高LNG船舶进出港的安全性,研究了一种基于数字孪生技术的LNG码头港池水域平面布置设计优化方案。依据LNG船舶和港作拖轮的实体特性,提取几何特征和水动力参数,构建孪生虚拟模型,应用感知数据技术,建立虚实映射关联模型,将LNG船舶和港作拖轮实际的运动状态,与智能数字化的技术精准融合,并在所搭建的虚拟环境中完成进出港和靠离泊测试,根据试验结果优化进出港航道及码头平面布置的设计方案,实现数字孪生技术在LNG码头设计过程的应用。

基于SVM的富水岩溶区双线盾构隧道下穿既有线临界安全距离研究

双线盾构隧道在极复杂的岩溶地质中下穿既有线施工时,会对地层造成较大扰动,从而增加既有地表沉降过大或坍塌的风险,严重威胁既有线的运营安全。同时,隧道穿越富水岩溶区域时,需要保持一定距离以避免与溶洞相交,确保双线盾构隧道围岩的稳定性。利用FlAC^(3D)软件建立不同工况组合下双线盾构隧道与左侧溶洞的临界安全距离数值模型,分析不同地下水位对既有线沉降和围岩塑性区范围的影响,并采用正交试验和多元线性回归方法建立双线盾构隧道在不同围岩等级、地下水埋深、开挖隧道埋深和溶洞孔径组合下与溶洞的临界安全距离计算公式。此外,还基于SVM模型对正交试验结果进行机器学习,得到可以预测岩溶地区双线盾构隧道临界安全距离的智能预测系统,实现双线盾构隧道下穿既有线临界安全距离的非线性智能预测。结果表明:当地下水位位于既有线以上时,其水位越高,既有线的沉降量越大、围岩塑性区范围越大,地下水对盾构隧道与溶洞的临界安全距离有很大影响,应用SVM模型和多元线性回归方法确定双线盾构隧道与溶洞之间的临界安全距离是行之有效的。

重金属污染水体背景下的底质反射率光谱特征及其对离水反射率贡献影响分析

水体重金属遥感反演是水环境遥感领域中的难题,目前仍有相当多的基础性问题有待解决,而浅水区底质对离水反射率贡献规律是将来遥感反演模型精度其中一个重要影响因素,尤其在重金属污染这种特殊的背景下,揭示其贡献规律对提升水体重金属遥感模型精度有重要作用,测量结果对研究重金属尾矿底泥的反射率光谱特征以及区分常见水底底质有参考意义。首先利用光谱仪测量获得广东大宝山尾矿底质反射率,发现其在波长755、 1 280、 1 620和2 200 nm存在反射峰,有明显光谱特征,并与河床常见的粗沙、淤泥和石头三类底质反射率进行了对比分析,结果表明:一方面,粗沙和淤泥反射率呈一缓慢上升的曲线,与存在多个特征反射峰的矿区底泥有明显区别;另一方面,石头反射率则在波长范围550~650 nm出现一个宽而扁平的反射峰后随即在波长675 nm处出现波谷然后增大至波长750 nm后趋于平缓,其特征波长与矿区底泥均不一样。上述特征波长可作为重金属污染背景下底泥光谱的重要区分波段。测量水深为1 cm、 10 cm和深水区的离水反射率,结合水质遥感模型计算出1 cm水深情况下底质反射光、水体散射光,并将其对离水反射率贡献进行讨论。离水反射率测量结果表明,底质对浅水区影响极大,随着水深变浅,离水反射率总体不断被抬升。而水底反射光和水体散射光对离水反射率贡献规律则以波长515 nm为分界线,向短波方向以水体散射光贡献为主,向长波方向则以水底反射光为主,贡献量由底质反射能力和水体散射能力共同决定。对考虑了底质反射光后的遥感模型精度进行评价,模型计算得到波长范围350~950 nm内的离水反射率与野外测量值对比结果,二者具有显著的线性相关(R^(2)=0.964 2),相对误差在波长范围560~830 nm低于10%,甚者可低于5%,模型总体模拟精度较好,远比在不考虑底质影响时精度高,模型满足将来水中重金属遥感反演要求。研究结果对今后水体重金属遥感反演时处理底质影响提供了重要的参考数据和理论依据,有助推动该领域进一步发展。

数字孪生淠河建设实践与思考

数字孪生淠河根据淠河流域特征,以流域防洪需求为牵引,提出技术解决方案。在共享安徽省现有数据感知、网络传输、算力环境等基础上,建设内容包括流域数据底板、水利模型平台、水利知识平台等支撑平台,以及在上述支撑平台基础上建立防洪预报、预警、预演、预案“四预”应用。防洪“四预”应用以精细化洪水预报为预警、调度提供基础,洪水预警为下游圩区等保护对象提供多阶段预警,情景化洪水预演以实景化方式分析洪水影响,智能化方案实现防洪预案的快速、自动化生成。通过总结数字孪生淠河建设内容,进一步探讨数字孪生流域建设中存在的难点问题,为相关数字孪生流域建设提供借鉴。

引汉济渭工程调水区多源风险评估与对策研究

为评估引汉济渭跨流域调水工程本身及运行管理行为中多源风险导致供水不足的可能性,构建了跨流域调水工程水库-泵站-电站的风险评估框架。将工程管理中的行为与经验以随机、模拟、优化三种调度模式进行数学表达,设置了兼顾工程失能与运行管理的单源、多源调度风险模式和方案集;建立并仿真计算了三种调度模型,获得了不同风险方案的动态调度过程及造成的供水风险;制定了跨流域调水工程的调度风险分级基准,采取专家打分法获取事件发生的初始概率区间,采用集值统计法和改进耦合度模型定量估计各方案发生概率,基于供水风险指标定量估算各方案的损失严重度;划分了风险矩阵的等级标准,结合最低合理可行(ALARP)准则明确了风险可接受程度,提出了非工程措施以管控风险,为引汉济渭工程调水区风险评估和防控提供了理论依据。研究发现:(1)三种调度模式中仅优化调度可满足调水15亿m 3、95%供水保证率的供水目标,且相较于随机调度方式,供水能力提升了13%;(2)单源风险方案的供水风险逐渐向长时间缺水过程发展,多源风险方案面临的调度情况更加复杂,供水风险在各个维度均处于危险状态;(3)处于ALARP区域的风险事件占比超过60%,与工程相关的风险多为小概率高危害式风险,应优先解决处于ALARP区域并预防不可接受区域的风险事件;(4)针对发生概率小但危害性高的供水风险,制定了水库下游人员转移等应急方案,以降低潜在的供水损失。研究结果对于跨流域调水工程的风险管理具有积极的推动作用,强化了ALARP准则在调水工程风险评估中的应用价值。

苏南水网地区蓝绿空间格局多情景模拟预测

【目的】模拟预测苏南水网地区蓝绿空间格局多情景发展趋势,探究促进地区可持续发展的情景方案。【方法】以江苏省苏州市吴江南片区为例,设置自然发展、生态保护优先和城镇发展优先等3种情景,借助CA-Markov模型,对2030年蓝绿空间格局变化趋势进行多情景模拟分析,并运用形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)和景观连通性评价解读蓝绿空间景观生态结构与生态格局特征。【结果】不同发展情景下蓝绿空间规模与格局变化差异显著。自然发展和城镇发展优先情景下,蓝绿空间面积呈现加速减少趋势,分别减少了3626.37、7145.74 hm^(2)。蓝绿空间核心区、孔隙等形态类型负向变化剧烈,蓝绿空间破碎度增加,连通性降低。生态保护优先情景与自然发展和城镇发展优先情景相比,蓝绿空间面积分别增加了2904.30、6423.67 hm^(2),蓝绿空间核心区等形态类型增幅明显,孔隙率显著降低,蓝绿空间破碎度降低,连通性增强。【结论】自然发展和城镇发展优先情景对水网地区蓝绿空间呈现负向影响趋势,生态保护优先情景在维持蓝绿空间面积与格局稳定,改善蓝绿空间连通性方面效果显著。

内养护机制对再生混凝土材料宏、细观力学性能的影响研究

再生混凝土作为绿色生态混凝土,其在生态水利工程中的应用较为广泛。为提高其力学性能和耐久性,采用内养护方式将再生骨料预处理至干燥、半饱和、饱和状态,分别以50%、100%的取代率取代普通混凝土,并设置干燥状态的普通混凝土作为对照组,分析了不同取代率下含水量对再生混凝土宏细观性能的影响并对各参数进行相关性分析,通过建立再生骨料吸水、解吸模型从细观尺度诠释内养护作用机理。研究结果表明,同等取代率下,养护90 d时抗压强度较优异的是含水率50%的再生混凝土组。取代率增大,孔隙增多,养护90 d时,R50P、R100P的孔隙率比7 d时分别降低14.2%、10.3%,说明含水率50%的再生骨料能一定程度上改善孔隙和界面过渡区结构;骨料吸水、解吸过程中发挥的内养护作用机制是再生混凝土后期强度持续增长的主要原因。

数字孪生水网赋能多业务场景应用与实践

目前,水利部数字孪生流域先行先试工作已经接近尾声。数字孪生太湖地区典型水网工程项目作为江苏省4个先行先试项目之一,包括10个子项,各子项综合考虑太湖地区水网纲、目、结特征,以河、湖、库、城市、圩区为主要试点对象。围绕共建共享的理念,文章从新形势、新思路、新标准、新平台4个方面阐述了数字孪生水网赋能多业务场景应用的方式,包括太湖流域“点—线—面”融合的多层级数据底板、江苏省太湖地区精细化河网模型及服务、“2+N”多场景“四预”业务应用,相关建设成果能够为江苏数字孪生水利建设提供经验,有效支撑未来我国智慧水利体系建设。