Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and ...Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China＇s own development.展开更多
In a previous study [1] the authors had developed a methodology for predicting global oil production. Briefly, the model accounted for disruptions in production by utilising a series of Hubbert curves in combination w...In a previous study [1] the authors had developed a methodology for predicting global oil production. Briefly, the model accounted for disruptions in production by utilising a series of Hubbert curves in combination with a polynomial smoothing function. Whilst the model was able to produce predictions for future oil production, the methodology was complex in its implementation and not easily applied to future disruptions. In this study a Generalized Bass model approach is incorporated with the Hubbert linearization technique that overcomes these limitations and is consistent with our previous predictions.展开更多
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71303258, 71373285, and 71503264)National Social Science Funds of China (13&ZD159)+1 种基金MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (13YJC630148, 15YJC630121)Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum, Beijing (ZX20150130)
文摘Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China＇s own development.
文摘In a previous study [1] the authors had developed a methodology for predicting global oil production. Briefly, the model accounted for disruptions in production by utilising a series of Hubbert curves in combination with a polynomial smoothing function. Whilst the model was able to produce predictions for future oil production, the methodology was complex in its implementation and not easily applied to future disruptions. In this study a Generalized Bass model approach is incorporated with the Hubbert linearization technique that overcomes these limitations and is consistent with our previous predictions.
