Construction of Dynamic Evaluation Model for Economic Benefits under Development of Low-Carbon New Energy

Because the static evaluation is unable to reflect the dynamic features of economic benefits and the contribution of sustainable development of low-carbon new energy to economic benefits is huge,this article puts forward the dynamic evaluation model of economic benefits under the development of low-carbon new energy.Total energy,energy consumption structure,industrial structure,GDP,total population and energy supply structure were taken as independent variables,and the carbon intensity was taken as the dependent variable.Through t-test and decision coefficient,total energy,energy consumption structure,GDP and total population were determined as the main factors of influencing low-carbon economy.Based on these four main factors,the dynamic evaluation index system of economic benefits was constructed.Experimental results show that the proposed model can comprehensively reflect the economic benefit level and the contribution of low-carbon new energy.Therefore,this method has high evaluation accuracy,which can provide scientific reference for the economic benefit management of relevant management departments.

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL OF ECOLOGICAL DEMONSTRATION AREA

Ecological demonstration area (EDA) is an authorized nomination, which should be assessed from several aspects, including ecological, social, environmental, economic ones and so on. It is difficult to advance an exact developing level index of EDA due to its indicator system’s complexity and disequilibrium. In this paper, a framework of indicators was set to evaluate, monitor and examine the comprehensive level of ecological demonstration area (EDA). Fuzzy logic method was used to develop the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM), which could quantitatively reveal the developing degree of EDA. Huiji District of Zhengzhou, Henan Province, one of the 9th group of national EDAs, was taken as a study case. The framework of FCEM for the integrated system included six subsystems, which were social, economic, ecological, rural, urban and accessorial description ones. The research would be valuable in the comprehensive quantitative evaluation of EDA and would work as a guide in the construction practices of Huiji ecological demonstration area.

Dynamic Pricing Model of E-Commerce Platforms Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

With the continuous development of artificial intelligence technology,its application field has gradually expanded.To further apply the deep reinforcement learning technology to the field of dynamic pricing,we build an intelligent dynamic pricing system,introduce the reinforcement learning technology related to dynamic pricing,and introduce existing research on the number of suppliers(single supplier and multiple suppliers),environmental models,and selection algorithms.A two-period dynamic pricing game model is designed to assess the optimal pricing strategy for e-commerce platforms under two market conditions and two consumer participation conditions.The first step is to analyze the pricing strategies of e-commerce platforms in mature markets,analyze the optimal pricing and profits of various enterprises under different strategy combinations,compare different market equilibriums and solve the Nash equilibrium.Then,assuming that all consumers are naive in the market,the pricing strategy of the duopoly e-commerce platform in emerging markets is analyzed.By comparing and analyzing the optimal pricing and total profit of each enterprise under different strategy combinations,the subgame refined Nash equilibrium is solved.Finally,assuming that the market includes all experienced consumers,the pricing strategy of the duopoly e-commerce platform in emerging markets is analyzed.

A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling of Air Temperature over Scandinavia Using the WRF Model

An accurate simulation of air temperature at local scales is crucial for the vast majority of weather and climate applications.In this work,a hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method and a high-resolution dynamical-only downscaling method are applied to daily mean,minimum and maximum air temperatures to investigate the quality of localscale estimates produced by downscaling.These two downscaling approaches are evaluated using station observation data obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute over a near-coastal region of western Finland.The dynamical downscaling is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the statistical downscaling method implemented is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform(CDF-t).The CDF-t is trained using 20 years of WRF-downscaled Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data over the region at a 3-km spatial resolution for the central month of each season.The performance of the two methods is assessed qualitatively,by inspection of quantile-quantile plots,and quantitatively,through the Cramer-von Mises,mean absolute error,and root-mean-square error diagnostics.The hybrid approach is found to provide significantly more skillful forecasts of the observed daily mean and maximum air temperatures than those of the dynamical-only downscaling(for all seasons).The hybrid method proves to be less computationally expensive,and also to give more skillful temperature forecasts(at least for the Finnish near-coastal region).

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Capacity-Power Consumption and Energy-Efficiency Evaluation of Green Wireless Networks

In this paper,we discuss in detail the basic issue of green design and consider an energy efficiency function as the metric to evaluate green cellular networks.Specifically,we investigate the transmit power required for an expected transmission capacity and propose a capacity-power formula based on the energy conservation and the Shannon capacity theorem.Two novel definitions of cell interference depth and handoff dynamic model are introduced and the corresponding expression of energy efficiency function is derived.Numerical results show that the energy efficiency function is closely correlated with the transmitted/received power required and the cell radius.Our work provides a useful basis for research and evaluation on green design and technology of cellular networks.

Threat evaluation method of warships formation air defense based on AR(p)-DITOPSIS

For the target threat evaluation of warships formation air defense, the sample data are frequently insufficient and even incomplete. The existing evaluation methods rely too much on expertise and are difficult to carry out for the dynamic evaluation on time series. In order to solve these problems, a threat evaluation method based on the AR(p)(auto regressive(AR))-dynamic improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(DITOPSIS) method is proposed. The AR(p) model is adopted to predict the missing data on the time series. Then, the entropy weight method is applied to solve each index weight at the objective point. Kullback-Leibler divergence(KLD) is used to improve the traditional TOPSIS, and to carry out the target threat evaluation. The Poisson distribution is used to assign the weight value.Simulation results show that the improved AR(p)-DITOPSIS threat evaluation method can synthetically take into account the target threat degree in time series and is more suitable for the threat evaluation under the condition of missing the target data than the traditional TOPSIS method.

Development and Evaluation of a 7-DOF Haptic Interface

With the development of human robot interaction technologies, haptic interfaces are widely used for 3 D applications to provide the sense of touch. These interfaces have been utilized in medical simulation, virtual assembly and remote manipulation tasks. However, haptic interface design and control are still critical problems to reproduce the highly sensitive touch sense of humans. This paper presents the development and evaluation of a7-DOF(degree of freedom) haptic interface based on the modified delta mechanism. Firstly, both kinematics and dynamics of the modified mechanism are analyzed and presented. A novel gravity compensation algorithm based on the physical model is proposed and validated in simulation. A haptic controller is proposed based on the forward kinematics and the gravity compensation algorithm. To evaluate the control performance of the haptic interface, a prototype has been implemented. Three kinds of experiments: gravity compensation, static response and force tracking are performed respectively. The experimental results show that the mean error of the gravity compensation is less than 0.7 N and the maximum continuous force along the axis can be up to 6 N. This demonstrates the good performance of the proposed haptic interface.

大数据分析在中医教学评价中的应用

在大数据和数字化转型的大背景下,文章分析、阐述了目前中医教学评价的困难以及如何将大数据技术应用在中医教学评价过程中,总结了大数据在中医教学评价过程中的应用方法。首先需要更加广泛地采集数据,包括静态数据、实时数据、非结构化数据等;然后通过系统化的数据标准体系构建,利用数据处理技术,建立全面的教学评价数据仓库;最后结合教学评价业务目标,构建动态数据分析模型,持续不断地以可视化方式直观输出评价结果,真正帮助教师、学生、教学管理者提高教学评价效率,为教学改革提供支撑。

地铁车站工程专项方案施工风险耦合致险评估

研究目的:安全专项方案风险评审是保障地铁车站重大工程施工安全的重要基础。针对地铁车站工程施工方案人工风险评审缺乏多风险耦合考虑、评审效率低等问题,提出构建基于系统动力学的风险耦合模型评估方法,其安全风险评价结果能有效支持专项施工方案风险评审和现场安全管理。研究结论:(1)基于工程安全风险事件的作用特征分析,得到了安全风险系统的演化路径及风险事件间的耦合关系;(2)建立了基于系统动力学的专项方案施工风险评价模型,其获得的具有时空信息工程风险评价结果,符合工程实际且便于工程师理解;(3)本研究成果可为地铁车站重大工程安全风险自动评审、方案修订以及现场应用提供支持,具有良好的理论和实践价值。

我国科技评价政策主题的演化趋势

旨在分析我国科技评价政策主题演化趋势,以进一步优化我国科技评价体系。此次共纳入114篇政策文件,将时间跨度划分为4个阶段,运用动态主题模型(DTM)挖掘政策主题的分布特征,引入Hellinger距离分析主题演化趋势。研究结果表明:科技评价政策主题聚焦在9个方面,随着科技评价制度的完善,科技评价政策主题更加多元化;科技监督与治理、人才评价和科技绩效评价的主题强度呈现明显上升趋势;政策主题的演化方向和时代背景密切相关,呈现强延续性、强衍生性的特点,且上述主题强度上升的领域有望成为未来科技评价工作的重点。

基于高斯混合模型的采煤工作面冲击危险性评价

【目的】深入了解声发射或微震能量分布所蕴含的概率学信息,对于工作面回采过程中的冲击危险性评价具有重要意义。【方法】以陕西大佛寺煤矿4号煤层40111工作面作为工程背景,运用物理相似模拟实验、理论分析、现场监测等相关方法进行分析,研究了声发射监测数据在回采过程中的演化规律,阐明了声发射能量概率分布呈现波动性的物理意义,提出了基于高斯混合模型(Gaussianminture model,GMM)及置信区间的冲击危险性评价指标模型,并由现场微震数据进行验证。【结果和结论】结果表明:回采过程中上覆岩层周期性垮落并伴随声发射能量的集中释放。总能量的概率密度函数呈现多自由度的非对称分布,通过对比残差平方和等多项拟合效果指标,确定高斯混合模型为最佳拟合模型。基于EM(expectation maximization)算法的GMM聚类分析,将声发射事件总能量分布划分为两类:高频低能型和低频高能型,其中低频高能型与冲击事件的突发性和高能量破坏特征一致。依据概率-能量梯度变化特征,对工作面开采过程中冲击危险性进行了评估。研究成果为采煤工作面冲击危险性评价提供了概率学上的创新思路,具有在冲击地压监测预警及后续防治中的潜在应用价值。

“双碳”背景下钢铁新产线选址的环境结合度评价——以中国宝武为例

为准确测度“双碳”(即碳达峰、碳中和的合称)背景下具体工业门类选址与环境体系的结合发展实效,通过研究钢铁新产线的选址取向及环境关切转变,提出新产线选址的环境结合度评价框架。通过数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)模型计算环境-经济效率,通过动态综合评价模型揭示时间序列上效率的变化特征,以构建一套钢铁新产线选址的环境结合度评价方法,进而对中国宝武钢铁集团部分生产基地开展实证分析。评价结果为上海宝山基地的环境结合度最高。研究表明:环境结合度是“双碳”背景下钢铁新产线向既有基地选址时主要的环境关切,而环境结合度的评价框架和评价方法可有效表征连续时间序列上既有基地与所在城市环境体系的互促共进态势,对大型钢企未来选址新产线具有一定指导作用。

考虑投入产出的常规公交调度绩效回溯性动态评价

实时调度因其灵活性在公交运营组织中发挥着重要决策作用。现行调度(员)绩效评价虽然能够考核行车计划执行情况,却忽略了在乘客体验和企业投入产出层面对调度效果考查,也不支持回溯过往调度实施效果。为使调度员能够精准提升调度技能和绩效、解决调度决策滞后造成的运能浪费等问题并提高乘客满意度,从投入产出及回溯性动态评价2个维度提出基于三阶段Super-SBM(super-efficiency slack-based measurement)模型的常规公交调度绩效评价方法,考虑路况及客流对调度效果的影响,在现行指标基础上从乘客角度增加运营速度、候车时间变化率及满载率标准差3项产出指标,构建评价体系。对2条上海公交线路的实际调度进行回溯性评价,验证了本文评价方法能准确区分调度效果差异。结果表明,高峰时段灵活的调度策略比在平峰能产生更明显的效益,且调度策略在不同时空场景呈现差异化适用性。通过回溯分析历史调度记录的绩效,一方面可以针对各场景为调度员提供调度决策支持,另一方面可为基于机器学习的公交实时调度策略生成技术挑选合适的学习样本,从而提升常规公交运营组织效率。

基于供需均衡分析的残疾人就业政策效果评估

运用经济学供需均衡分析深入评估我国残疾人就业政策中的禁止就业歧视、合理便利、保障金制度和法定就业率等关键政策工具对劳动市场的影响。研究通过静态与动态模型比较,揭示了这些政策对残疾人与非残疾人工资率、就业量和社会剩余的短期与长期效应。结果显示,虽然保障金制度短期内对非残疾人产生负面影响,长期则可能提升市场包容性和经济效率。同时,研究指出政策变动初期市场调整不完全,导致自重损失和资源配置效率下降。最后从重视残疾人就业政策工具的组合效应、动态调整残疾人就业保障金制度、优化合理便利投入、平衡就业与社会福利等方面提出政策建议,以期促进残疾人的社会和经济融入。

智能可穿戴监测服装性能评价模型的研究进展

为促进可穿戴智能服装评价标准形成进而促进可穿戴智能服装产业化发展,系统介绍人体-织物数理模型及人体与织物间动态压力数值模拟的评价模型。基于弹性力学理论,探究静止状态下拉普拉斯数理模型的研究进展;介绍织物结构对接触压力的影响及织物结构的数值模拟,并进一步探究着装过程、运动状态下人体-织物间连续动态压力的数值模拟情况,以及数值模拟法与计算机技术结合的现状。最后讨论现阶段可穿戴智能服装评价模型的应用,并提出使用数值模拟法进行多物理场耦合、模拟加速度运动用于提高可穿戴智能服装可靠性评价标准的发展展望。

激光自适应光学系统可靠性改进效果评估

随着自适应光学技术在激光领域的发展,工程上以经典自适应光学(AO)系统为基础,增加了多种基于软件监测和硬件保护的改进措施以保证激光AO系统稳定连续出光。面对结构复杂度提升带来的可靠性挑战,如何构建系统失效模型对激光AO系统可靠性进行评估,成为影响激光AO系统发展的重要一环。本文以激光光稳净化AO系统为例,提出使用动态故障树方法对激光AO系统可靠性进行评估,根据设备间动态关系建立动态故障树(DFT),结合厂家信息、疲劳寿命试验与历史数据估计得到底事件失效率,使用二元决策图和马尔可夫模型求解得到DFT的可靠性参数。使用DFT分析增加改进措施的AO系统可靠运行时间,结果相对于基本故障树获得了十倍以上的提高。实际系统调试期间,在预计的可靠运行时间内未发生自因故障,与DFT估计结果一致。验证了应用DFT方法评估增加改进措施后的激光AO系统可靠性更准确。

基于机器学习的沥青路面压实度质量评估

为了提高沥青路面压实度预测的准确率,基于机器学习对沥青路面进行压实度质量评估;通过对比实际工程中不同压路机在沥青路面上的振动规律,构建振动压路机-沥青路面系统动力学模型,利用Simulink数值仿真软件对所构建的模型进行仿真,设计8种工况,对比压实度计值、压实度控制值、机械驱动功率、滚轮综合刚度、填筑体能量、单位体积压实功率6个压实度质量评估指标在各工况下的适用性差异;采用支持向量机、逻辑回归、k最近邻、决策树、朴素贝叶斯法5种传统的机器学习方法对各工况下的压实度质量评估指标样本进行训练,对比压实度预测准确率;设计压路机在不同碾压次数时的碾压路线,对比分别采用最优压实度质量评估指标和单一压实度质量评估指标的压实度预测准确率。结果表明:不同压实度质量评估指标在不同工况下的适用性不同,即使在同一种工况下,不同碾压次数时的适用性也存在差异;采用最优压实度质量评估指标代替单一压实度质量评估指标,压实度预测准确率提高5.8%;在5种传统的机器学习方法中,朴素贝叶斯法预测最优压实度质量评估指标类型的准确率最高,为96.22%。

基于云耦合协调模型的水资源关联系统协调性动态评价

以山东省为研究区域,选取21个代表性指标,采用熵权-层次分析法确定水资源关联系统协调性评价指标权重,构建云耦合协调模型,分析2010-2021年水资源关联系统协调性及动态变化。结果表明:山东省水资源关联系统耦合协调度整体呈现不断上升的变化趋势,其变化范围为0.608~0.715,耦合协调发展等级逐渐由初级协调水平向中级协调水平发展变化,在2014年和2019年出现明显变点;在空间上各地区耦合协调度呈现东高西低的分布特征,不同阶段耦合协调发展水平地域性差异性较为明显,整体上由高到低为胶东半岛地区>鲁中南地区>鲁西北地区,其中,济南市和青岛市耦合协调发展能力最优,达到良好协调水平,德州市和滨州市耦合协调发展能力较为缓慢,维持在初级协调水平;未来山东省应加强鲁西北平原区水资源关联系统协调发展,促进全省空间均衡。

基于模糊理论的立式磁轴承系统保护轴承抗冲击影响因素分析

为分析立式磁轴承失效后保护轴承受转子冲击的影响因素及其影响程度,仿真立式磁轴承系统中转子跌落至保护轴承的动力学过程,建立Ⅰ-Ⅱ级模糊综合评价模型对保护轴承所受轴向碰撞力各影响参数的影响程度进行评判,并利用熵权法、灰色关联度法对模型进行验证,结果表明:随着转子质量、轴向保护间隙、转子偏心角度增大以及有保持架更换为无保持架,保护轴承内圈所受最大轴向碰撞力增大,随着填球数增大,最大轴向碰撞力先减小后增大,而转子转速、滚动体材料、径向保护间隙的变化对轴向碰撞力的影响不大;各参数的影响程度从大到小为转子质量、保护轴承填球数、轴向保护间隙、转子偏心角度、保护轴承有无保持架、滚动体材料、转子转速、径向保护间隙;模糊综合评价模型与熵权法、灰色关联度法的评价结果基本一致,验证了在乏信息条件下利用模糊综合评价模型评价各参数对保护轴承所受轴向碰撞力的影响程度的有效性。