Dynamic probabilistic design technique for multi-component system with multi-failure modes

For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.

Seismic reliability analysis of shield tunnel faces under multiple failure modes by pseudo-dynamic method and response surface method

In order to investigate the stability problem of shield tunnel faces subjected to seismic loading,the pseudodynamic method(P-DM)was employed to analyze the seismic effect on the face.Two kinds of failure mechanisms of active collapse and passive extrusion were considered,and a seismic reliability model of shield tunnel faces under multifailure mode was established.The limit analysis method and the response surface method(RSM)were used together to solve the reliability of shield tunnel faces subjected to seismic action.Comparing with existing results,the results of this work are effective.The effects of seismic load and rock mass strength on the collapse pressure,extrusion pressure and reliability index were discussed,and reasonable ranges of support pressure of shield tunnel faces under seismic action were presented.This method can provide a new idea for solving the shield thrust parameter under the seismic loading.

Reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables based on distributed collaborative response surface method

The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency without loss of reliability,the distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) was proposed,and its basic theories were established in this work.Considering the failure dependency among the failure modes,the distributed response surface was constructed to establish the relationship between the failure mode and the relevant random variables.Then,the failure modes were considered as the random variables of system response to obtain the distributed collaborative response surface model based on structure failure criterion.Finally,the given turbine disc structure was employed to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the presented method.Through the comparison of DCRSM,Monte Carlo method(MCM) and the traditional response surface method(RSM),the results show that the computational precision for DCRSM is more consistent with MCM than RSM,while DCRSM needs far less computing time than MCM and RSM under the same simulation conditions.Thus,DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and valid approach for improving the computational efficiency of reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables,and has great potential value for the complicated mechanical structure with multi-component and multi-failure mode.

Advanced multiple response surface method of sensitivity analysis for turbine blisk reliability with multi-physics coupling

To reasonably implement the reliability analysis and describe the significance of influencing parameters for the multi-failure modes of turbine blisk, advanced multiple response surface method (AMRSM) was proposed for multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability. The mathematical model of AMRSM was established and the basic principle of multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis for reliability with AMRSM was given. The important parameters of turbine blisk failures are obtained by the multi-failure mode sensitivity analysis of turbine blisk. Through the reliability sensitivity analyses of multiple failure modes (deformation, stress and strain) with the proposed method considering fluid-thermal-solid interaction, it is shown that the comprehensive reliability of turbine blisk is 0.9931 when the allowable deformation, stress and strain are 3.7 x 10(-3) m, 1.0023 x 10(9) Pa and 1.05 x 10(-2) m/m, respectively; the main impact factors of turbine blisk failure are gas velocity, gas temperature and rotational speed. As demonstrated in the comparison of methods (Monte Carlo (MC) method, traditional response surface method (RSM), multiple response surface method (MRSM) and AMRSM), the proposed AMRSM improves computational efficiency with acceptable computational accuracy. The efforts of this study provide the AMRSM with high precision and efficiency for multi-failure mode reliability analysis, and offer a useful insight for the reliability optimization design of multi-failure mode structure. (C) 2016 Chinese Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Production and hosting by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.