A Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Using Belief-Based Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets and Its Application in Emergency Decision-Making

Probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)are an effective tool for expressing subjective human cognition that offer advantages in the field ofmulti-attribute decision-making(MADM).However,studies have found that PLTSs have lost their ability to accurately capture the views of decision-makers(DMs)in certain circumstances,such as when the DM hesitates between multiple linguistic terms or the decision information is incomplete,thus affecting their role in the decision-making process.Belief function theory is a leading streamof thought in uncertainty processing that is suitable for dealing with the limitations of PLTS.Therefore,the purpose of this study is to extend PLTS to incorporate belief function theory.First,we provide the basic concepts of the extended PLTS(i.e.,belief-based PLTS)through case analyses.Second,the aggregation operator of belief-based PLTS is defined with the ordered weighted average(OWA)-based soft likelihood function,which is improved by considering the reliability of the information source.Third,to measure the magnitude of different belief-based PLTSs,the belief interval of singleton is calculated,and the comparison method of belief-based PLTS is constructed based on probabilities.On the basis of the preceding discussion,we further develop an emergency decision framework that includes several novel techniques,such as attribute weight determination and decision information aggregation.Finally,the usefulness of the framework is demonstrated through a case study,and its effectiveness is illustrated through a series of comparisons.

Damage effectiveness assessment method for anti-ship missiles based on double hierarchy linguistic term sets and evidence theory

The research on the damage effectiveness assessment of anti-ship missiles involves system science and weapon science, and has essential strategic research significance. With comprehensive analysis of the specific process of the damage assessment process of anti-missile against ships, a synthetic damage effectiveness assessment process is proposed based on the double hierarchy linguistic term set and the evidence theory. In order to improve the accuracy of the expert ’s assessment information, double hierarchy linguistic terms are used to describe the assessment opinions of experts. In order to avoid the loss of experts ’ original information caused by information fusion rules, the evidence theory is used to fuse the assessment information of various experts on each case. Good stability of the assessment process can be reflected through sensitivity analysis, and the fluctuation of a certain parameter does not have an excessive influence on the assessment results. The assessment process is accurate enough to be reflected through comparative analysis and it has a good advantage in damage effectiveness assessment.

An Evidence-Based CoCoSo Framework with Double Hierarchy Linguistic Data for Viable Selection of Hydrogen Storage Methods

Hydrogen is the new age alternative energy source to combat energy demand and climate change.Storage of hydrogen is vital for a nation’s growth.Works of literature provide different methods for storing the produced hydrogen,and the rational selection of a viable method is crucial for promoting sustainability and green practices.Typically,hydrogen storage is associated with diverse sustainable and circular economy(SCE)criteria.As a result,the authors consider the situation a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)problem.Studies infer that previous models for hydrogen storage method(HSM)selection(i)do not consider preferences in the natural language form;(ii)weights of experts are not methodically determined;(iii)hesitation of experts during criteria weight assessment is not effectively explored;and(iv)three-stage solution of a suitable selection of HSM is unexplored.Driven by these gaps,in this paper,authors put forward a new integrated framework,which considers double hierarchy linguistic information for rating,criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation(CRITIC)for expert weight calculation,evidence-based Bayesian method for criteria weight estimation,and combined compromise solution(CoCoSo)for ranking HSMs.The applicability of the developed framework is testified by using a case example of HSM selection in India.Sensitivity and comparative analysis reveal the merits and limitations of the developed framework.

Fuzzy interval linguistic sets with applications in multi-attribute group decision making

Uncertain and hesitant information, widely existing in the real-world qualitative decision making problems, brings great challenges to decision makers. Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets(HFLTSs), an effective linguistic computational tool in modeling and eliciting such information, have hence aroused many scholars’ interests and some extensions have been introduced recently.However, these methods are based on the discrete linguistic term framework with the limited expression domain, which actually depict qualitative information using several single values. Therefore,it is hard to ensure the integrity of the semantics representation and the accuracy of the computation results. To deal with this problem, a semantics basis framework called complete linguistic term set(CLTS) is designed, which adopts a separation structure of linguistic scale and expression domain, enriching semantics representation of decision makers. On this basis the concept of fuzzy interval linguistic sets(FILSs) is put forward that employs the interval linguistic term with probability to increase the flexibility of eliciting and representing uncertain and hesitant qualitative information. For practical applications, a fuzzy interval linguistic technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(FILTOPSIS) method is developed to deal with multi-attribute group decision making(MAGDM) problems. Through the cases of movie and enterprise resource planning(ERP) system selection, the effectiveness and validity of the proposed method are illustrated.

Linguistic Knowledge Representation in DPoS Consensus Scheme for Blockchain

The consensus scheme is an essential component in the real blockchain environment.The Delegated Proof of Stake(DPoS)is a competitive consensus scheme that can decrease energy costs,promote decentralization,and increase efficiency,respectively.However,how to study the knowledge representation of the collective voting information and then select delegates is a new open problem.To ensure the fairness and effectiveness of transactions in the blockchain,in this paper,we propose a novel fine-grained knowledge representation method,which improves the DPoS scheme based on the linguistic term set(LTS)and proportional hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set(PHFLTS).To this end,the symmetrical LTS is used in this study to express the fine-grained voting options that can be chosen to evaluate the blockchain nodes.PHFLTS is used to model the collective voting information on the voted blockchain nodes by aggregating the voting information from other blockchain nodes.To rank the blockchain nodes and then choose the delegate,a novel delegate selection algorithm is proposed based on the cumulative possibility degree.Finally,the numerical examples are used to demonstrate the implementation process of the proposed DPoS consensus algorithm and also its rationality.Moreover,the superiority of the proposed DPoS consensus algorithm is verified.The results show that the proposed DPoS consensus algorithm shows better performance than the existing DPoS consensus algorithms.

Multidimensional Quality Evaluation of Graduate Thesis:Based on the Probabilistic Linguistic MABAC Method

Graduate education is the main way to train high-level innovative talents,the basic layout to cope with the global talent competition,and the important cornerstone for implementing the innovation-driven development strategy and building an innovation-driven country.Therefore,graduate education is of great remarkably to the development of national education.As an important manifestation of graduate education,the quality of a graduate thesis should receive more attention.It is conducive to promoting the quality of graduates by supervising and examining the quality of the graduate thesis.For this purpose,this work is based on textmining,expert interviews,and questionnaire surveys to obtain the factors influencing the quality of a graduate thesis first.Then,through three rounds of expert consultation,a multidimensional evaluation indicator system for the graduate thesis quality is built.Furthermore,probabilistic linguistic termsets(PLTSs)are utilized to obtain the initial evaluation information and apply the stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis method to determine the weights of attributes.In the ensuing step,the novel multi-attribute border approximation area comparison based on the PLTS method is established.Finally,the proposed method is employed in a case study concerning the quality evaluation of a graduate thesis and the effectiveness of this approach is further illustrated.

Information Security Evaluation of Industrial Control Systems Using Probabilistic Linguistic MCDM Method

Industrial control systems(ICSs)are widely used in various fields,and the information security problems of ICSs are increasingly serious.The existing evaluation methods fail to describe the uncertain evaluation information and group evaluation information of experts.Thus,this paper introduces the probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)to model the evaluation information of experts.Meanwhile,we propose a probabilistic linguistic multi-criteria decision-making(PL-MCDM)method to solve the information security assessment problem of ICSs.Firstly,we propose a novel subscript equivalence distance measure of PLTSs to improve the existing methods.Secondly,we use the Best Worst Method(BWM)method and Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation(CRITIC)method to obtain the subjective weights and objective weights,which are used to derive the combined weights.Thirdly,we use the subscript equivalence distance measure method and the combined weight method to improve the probabilistic linguistic Visekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(PL-VIKOR)method.Finally,we apply the proposed method to solve the information security assessment problem of ICSs.When comparing with the existing methods such as the probabilistic linguistic Tomada deDecisão Iterativa Multicritério(PL-TODIM)method and probabilistic linguistic Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(PL-TOPSIS)method,the case example shows that the proposed method can provide more reasonable ranking results.By evaluating and ranking the information security level of different ICSs,managers can identify problems in time and guide their work better.

Enabling weakened hedges in linguistic multi-criteria decision making

A semantics-based model is proposed to enable weakened hedges, such as ＂more or less＂ and ＂roughly＂ in the context of linguistic multi-criteria decision making. First, the resemblance relations are defined based on the semantics of terms on the domain. Then, the hedges can be represented after the upper and loose upper approximations of a linguistic term are derived. Accordingly, some compact formulae can be derived for the semantics of linguistic expressions with hedges. Parameters in these formulae are objectively determined according to the semantics of original terms. The proposed model presents a more natural way to express the decision information under uncertainties and its semantics is clear. The proposed model is clarified by solving the problem of evaluation and selection of sustainable innovative energy technologies. Computational results demonstrate that the model can deal with various uncertainties of the problem. Finally, the model is compared with existing techniques and extended to the case when the semantics of terms are represented by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.

Dynamic hesitant fuzzy linguistic group decision-making from a reliability perspective

A dynamic hesitant fuzzy linguistic group decisionmaking(DHFLGDM) problem is studied from the perspective of information reliability based on the theory of hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets(HFLTSs). First, an approach is applied to transform the dynamic HFLTSs(DHFLTSs) into a set of proportional linguistic terms to eliminate the time dimension. Second, expert reliability is measured by considering both group similarity and degree of certainty, and an optimization method is employed to quantify the linguistic terms by maximizing the group similarity. Third, through computing the attribute stability as well as its reliability, a combination rule which considers both reliability and weight is proposed to aggregate the information, and then the aggregated grade values and degree of stability are used to make a selection. Finally,the application and feasibility of the proposed method are verified through a case study and method comparison.

Warhead power assessment based on double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets theory and gained and lost dominance score method

Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly optimal alternative. Aimed at solving these problems, this paper proposes a synthetical assessment process based on fuzzy hesitant linguistic term set and the Gained and Lost Dominance Score(GLDS) method. In order to improve the assessment accuracy of experts and solve the problem that experts generate different opinions, combined with the advantages of fuzzy hesitant sets and linguistic term sets, the double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets are used in this paper to improve the accuracy of expert’s judgement. In order to effectively combine expert’s experience with the data of criteria, the evidence theory and entropy weight method are used to transfer the expert’s judgement to the weight. In order to avoid selecting defective alternative of missile design, the GLDS is used to fuse expert information and criteria information. Sensitivity analysis shows that the assessment process has sensitivity to some extent. However, when the fluctuation of expert’s assessment makes the fluctuation of θ in the range of-5% to 5%, the impact on the results is not quite conspicuous. The analysis of calculation result and comparative analysis show that the assessment process proposed in this paper is accurate enough, has great advantage in selecting the current and potential optimal alternative of missile design, and avoids the alternatives with low criteria performance that cannot be compensated by other criteria being selected.

MCGDM model using uncertain linguistic consistency sets of single andinterval linguistic term multivalued sets

This paper presents hybrid linguistic expressions and operations for the hybridlinguistic multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) issue withidentical and/or different single and interval linguistic term values. First, wepropose a single and interval linguistic term multivalued set/element (SILTMS/SILTME) and develop a consistency measure of SILTMEs based on Shannonentropy to measure the consistency degree of single and interval linguistic termvalues in SILTME. Second, we converse SILTMS/SILTME into an uncertainlinguistic consistency set/element (ULCS/ULCE) in terms of the mean andconsistency measure of SILTMEs to reasonably perform operations betweendifferent information forms/sequence lengths in SILTMSs. Third, we definesome operations of ULCEs and the expected values and sorting rules ofULCEs. Fourth, we present the ULCE weighted mean and geometric operatorsand their characteristics. Finally, we develop a MCGDM model using theweighted mean operation of the two operators and apply it in the mine safetyassessment.

基于FDHHFLTS-BN的海底管道泄漏失效风险定量分析

为预防海底油气管道泄漏失效事故,提出基于自由双层次犹豫模糊语言术语集(FDHHFLTS)和贝叶斯网络(BN)的FDHHFLTS-BN风险分析方法,用于分析海底油气管道泄漏失效事故概率及事故的关键风险因素。将故障树模型转换为BN结构,由专家根据FDHHFLTS评估基本事件发生可能性;采用最佳最差法(BWM)确定专家权重,结合相似性聚合方法(SAM)聚合专家意见;依据构建的BN模型,正向推理得到事故发生概率,反向推理得到后验概率,并进行敏感性分析。将该方法应用于实例分析,结果表明:分析段海底管道泄漏事故的概率值为P=6.20×10^(-3);焊缝施工缺陷、材料施工缺陷和渔具作用等为事故发生的关键因素;与传统方法对比分析结果证明,所提方法在确定海底管道风险方面具有一定的优势。

基于多粒度犹豫模糊语言术语集的TOPSIS决策方法研究

为了解决在实际决策时,由于知识背景不同决策者采用不同粒度语言术语集来表达而导致决策结果不准确的问题,本文提出了一种基于多粒度犹豫模糊语言术语集的逼近理想解排序(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法。首先选用各术语集中的最大粒度作为标准粒度,通过转换算法将每个决策者的语言术语集转换到同一标准粒度下进行集结,得出相应的隶属度语言术语集;然后结合TOPSIS方法,计算每个备选方案与正、负理想点距离,以相对贴近度的大小排序实现最优方案的选择;最后,通过一个实例,验证该方法的可行性和优越性。本文所提方法可应用于最优方案的选择问题中,提升决策结果准确度。

基于调和概率语言术语集的Power平均算子

实践发现现存概率语言Power平均算子在应用中存在概率信息丢失、计算过于繁琐等问题,针对这些问题,提出一种基于调和概率语言术语集的Power平均算子。结合新的基本运算法则与新的支撑度,给出新的概率语言Power平均算子、概率语言Power几何平均算子、概率语言Power加权平均算子、概率语言Power加权几何平均算子,同时论证分析了这几类新型算子的性质。最后通过实验数据,将提出的算子与现存算子进行对比分析,验证了所提算子的有效性与可行性。

考虑期望强度与属性补偿关系的新能源汽车在线推荐方法

基于消费者属性期望,结合柔性决策和补偿原则理论,定义期望强度与属性补偿关系,明确属性期望与期望强度融合方法以及产品属性补偿规则,提出考虑期望强度和属性补偿关系的新能源汽车在线筛选方法。结合证据理论与消费者风险偏好提出新能源汽车在线排序方法,实现在线推荐满足消费者期望的新能源汽车。研究发现:与考虑属性期望严格约束的推荐方法相比,同时考虑期望强度与属性补偿关系能够避免综合高性价比车型因部分消费者属性期望严格约束而被忽略;采用证据推理结合消费者风险偏好确定车型优先级,能够更加精准地为消费者推荐满足个性化期望的新能源汽车。

Research on Recommendation Algorithms Based on Cloud Models in Probabilistic Linguistic Environments

To solve the problem that the traditional cloud model can't directly process the textual review information in the recommendation algorithm,this paper combines the merits of the cloud model in transforming qualitative and quantitative knowledge with the multi-granularity advantages of probabilistic linguistic term sets in representing uncertain information,and proposes a recommendation algorithm based on cloud model in probabilistic language environment.Initially,this paper quantifies the attributes in the review text based on the probabilistic linguistic term set.Subsequently,the maximum deviation method is used to determine the weight of each attribute in the evaluation information of the product to be recommended,and the comprehensive evaluation number and attribute weight are converted into the digital characteristic value of the cloud model by using the backward cloud generator.Finally,the products are recommended and sorted based on the digital characteristic value of the cloud model.The algorithm is applied to the recommendation of 10 hotels,and the results show that the method is effective and practical,enriching the application of cloud models in the recommendation field.

社会网络下基于在线评论的旅游供应商优选研究

在线旅游平台上评论规模庞大,信息量浩如烟海,平台如何依据他人评论信息为游客提供最优旅游供应商,从而使游客得到满意的服务体验是亟待解决的问题。在社会网络视角下,基于在线评论和概率语言提出一种旅游供应商的优选方法。首先,采集旅游平台上的游客评论数据,运用TF-IDF方法提取各供应商相关评论的关键词,通过筛选整理形成主题并计算其权重;然后,分析每条评论的情感值,并将其转换成概率语言术语集的形式;最后,构建游客群体社会网络,将游客群体意见与在线评论信息相结合,运用PROMETHEE-Ⅱ方法对旅游供应商进行优选排序。结果表明,本文方法推荐结果与旅游平台数据基本一致,但能在相似评分的供应商中做出优劣比较,精准有效地提供最优供应商,且简单可靠。

基于前景理论和LOWA算子的概率语言LEC风险评估方法

考虑到作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)存在的评价信息遗漏、风险量化分析能力弱、忽略决策者有限理性特征等缺陷,提出一种基于前景理论和语言有序加权平均(LOWA)算子的概率语言LEC风险评估方法。首先,该方法采用概率语言术语集(PLTS)代替精确的非连续性数值来刻画决策者评价信息的不确定性;其次,利用概率语言连乘层次分析法(PL-MAHP)和正、负理想点双向投影贴近度最小偏差模型确定指标的主、客观权重,并基于博弈论的思想对主、客观权重进行组合优化;然后,考虑到风险评估过程中决策者的损失规避和参照依赖等心理行为,在前景理论决策视角下,引入LOWA算子确定前景参照点以提升参照点选取的科学性,进而实现安全隐患的风险排序;最后,通过危化品运输安全隐患的风险评估算例,验证了该方法的合理性和有效性。

基于概率语言术语集和TODIM法的健康社区评价研究

为提升健康社区水平,提出基于概率语言术语集改进TODIM法的健康社区综合评价方法。首先,基于社会生态学理论,从社区治理、人际、设施、环境4个维度构建健康社区水平评价指标体系;其次,根据概率语言术语集确定初始指标权重,采用KANO模型修正确定最终指标权重,并将概率语言术语集中的距离测度与TODIM法相结合,通过计算各方案的全局优势度进行评价排序;最后,将此模型用于健康社区进行综合评价。结果表明,利用所构建模型对社区进行实证分析是可行的,概率语言术语集将模糊性、不确定性、难以量化的评价信息灵活准确地描述出来,使吸纳的评价信息更加全面。基于概率语言术语集和TODIM法对健康社区进行评价,在模糊环境下也可解决群决策问题,对提升地方政府对社区健康认知、推动健康社区建设有一定的参考价值。

WPLTS多属性群决策问题的点坐标解法

为了解决加权概率语言术语集(WPLTS)多属性群决策问题,将该问题转换为加权概率犹豫模糊集(WPHFS)多属性群决策问题,并从点坐标的角度出发建立了解决WPHFS多属性群决策问题的一种算法.首先,将WPHFS中的隶属度、概率、专家权重以点坐标形式刻画,在此基础上提出了加权概率犹豫模糊元(WPHFE)的相关运算;其次,分别建立了计算决策专家综合权重以及属性综合权重的计算模型;最后,采用Maclaurin对称平均算子集结WPHFE以获取每个方案的综合属性值.决策结果表明,WPLTS多属性群决策算法不仅可行,而且可以从多个角度来客观地分析方案的排序问题,为精准地确定最优方案提供了一种有效路径.