A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Prescribed Performance Tracking Control of Time-Delay Nonlinear Systems With Output Constraints

The problem of prescribed performance tracking control for unknown time-delay nonlinear systems subject to output constraints is dealt with in this paper. In contrast with related works, only the most fundamental requirements, i.e., boundedness and the local Lipschitz condition, are assumed for the allowable time delays. Moreover, we focus on the case where the reference is unknown beforehand, which renders the standard prescribed performance control designs under output constraints infeasible. To conquer these challenges, a novel robust prescribed performance control approach is put forward in this paper.Herein, a reverse tuning function is skillfully constructed and automatically generates a performance envelop for the tracking error. In addition, a unified performance analysis framework based on proof by contradiction and the barrier function is established to reveal the inherent robustness of the control system against the time delays. It turns out that the system output tracks the reference with a preassigned settling time and good accuracy,without constraint violations. A comparative simulation on a two-stage chemical reactor is carried out to illustrate the above theoretical findings.

An intelligent automatic correlation method of oilbearing strata based on pattern constraints:An example of accretionary stratigraphy of Shishen 100 block in Shinan Oilfield of Bohai Bay Basin,East China

Aiming at the problem that the data-driven automatic correlation methods which are difficult to adapt to the automatic correlation of oil-bearing strata with large changes in lateral sedimentary facies and strata thickness,an intelligent automatic correlation method of oil-bearing strata based on pattern constraints is formed.We propose to introduce knowledge-driven in automatic correlation of oil-bearing strata,constraining the correlation process by stratigraphic sedimentary patterns and improving the similarity measuring machine and conditional constraint dynamic time warping algorithm to automate the correlation of marker layers and the interfaces of each stratum.The application in Shishen 100 block in the Shinan Oilfield of the Bohai Bay Basin shows that the coincidence rate of the marker layers identified by this method is over 95.00%,and the average coincidence rate of identified oil-bearing strata reaches 90.02% compared to artificial correlation results,which is about 17 percentage points higher than that of the existing automatic correlation methods.The accuracy of the automatic correlation of oil-bearing strata has been effectively improved.

Scheduling algorithm of dual-armed cluster tools with residency time and reentrant constraints

To solve the scheduling problem of dual-armed cluster tools for wafer fabrications with residency time and reentrant constraints,a heuristic scheduling algorithm was developed.Firstly,on the basis of formulating scheduling problems domain of dual-armed cluster tools,a non-integer programming model was set up with a minimizing objective function of the makespan.Combining characteristics of residency time and reentrant constraints,a scheduling algorithm of searching the optimal operation path of dual-armed transport module was presented under many kinds of robotic scheduling paths for dual-armed cluster tools.Finally,the experiments were designed to evaluate the proposed algorithm.The results show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and efficient for obtaining an optimal scheduling solution of dual-armed cluster tools with residency time and reentrant constraints.

Adaptive Neural Network-Based Control for a Class of Nonlinear Pure-Feedback Systems With Time-Varying Full State Constraints

In this paper, an adaptive neural network(NN)control approach is proposed for nonlinear pure-feedback systems with time-varying full state constraints. The pure-feedback systems of this paper are assumed to possess nonlinear function uncertainties. By using the mean value theorem, pure-feedback systems can be transformed into strict feedback forms. For the newly generated systems, NNs are employed to approximate unknown items. Based on the adaptive control scheme and backstepping algorithm, an intelligent controller is designed. At the same time, time-varying Barrier Lyapunov functions(BLFs)with error variables are adopted to avoid violating full state constraints in every step of the backstepping design. All closedloop signals are uniformly ultimately bounded and the output tracking error converges to the neighborhood of zero, which can be verified by using the Lyapunov stability theorem. Two simulation examples reveal the performance of the adaptive NN control approach.

A geometric framework for time-dependent mechanical systems with unilateral constraints

The description of modern differential geometry for time-dependent Chetaev nonholonomic mechanical systems with unilateral constraints is studied. By using the structure of exact contact manifold, the geometric framework of time- dependent nonholonomic mechanical systems subject to unilateral nonholonomic constraints and unilateral holonomic constraints respectively is presented.

Accelerated Primal-Dual Projection Neurodynamic Approach With Time Scaling for Linear and Set Constrained Convex Optimization Problems

The Nesterov accelerated dynamical approach serves as an essential tool for addressing convex optimization problems with accelerated convergence rates.Most previous studies in this field have primarily concentrated on unconstrained smooth con-vex optimization problems.In this paper,on the basis of primal-dual dynamical approach,Nesterov accelerated dynamical approach,projection operator and directional gradient,we present two accelerated primal-dual projection neurodynamic approaches with time scaling to address convex optimization problems with smooth and nonsmooth objective functions subject to linear and set constraints,which consist of a second-order ODE(ordinary differential equation)or differential conclusion system for the primal variables and a first-order ODE for the dual vari-ables.By satisfying specific conditions for time scaling,we demonstrate that the proposed approaches have a faster conver-gence rate.This only requires assuming convexity of the objective function.We validate the effectiveness of our proposed two accel-erated primal-dual projection neurodynamic approaches through numerical experiments.

Stabilization of linear time-varying systems with state and input constraints using convex optimization

The stabilization problem of linear time-varying systems with both state and input constraints is considered. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the solution to this problem are derived and a gain-switched（gain-scheduled） state feedback control scheme is built to stabilize the constrained timevarying system. The design problem is transformed to a series of convex feasibility problems which can be solved efficiently. A design example is given to illustrate the effect of the proposed algorithm.

Key Dolerite Dyke Swarms of Amazonia:U-Pb Constraints on Supercontinent Cycles and Geodynamic Connections with Global LIP Events Through Time

High-resolution U–Pb(ID-TIMS,baddeleyite)ages are presented for mafic dykes from selected swarms in two important Amazonian regions:the Carajás Province in the east,and the Rio Apa block in the southwest–areas

Zircon and Apatite U-Pb Geochronology and Geochemistry of the Mafic Dykes in the Shuangxiwu Area, Northwestern Zhejiang Province: Constraints on the Initial Time of Neoproterozoic Rifting in South China

Previous studies have shown that there are some ca.770–750 Ma mafic dykes at the western segment of the Neoproterozoic Jiangnan orogen(JO),and they represent post-orogenic magmatism due to orogenic collapse(Wang

Constraints Adjustment and Objectives Coordination of Satisfying Optimal Control Applied to Heavy Oil Fractionators

In this paper, the feasibility and objectives coordination of real-time optimization (RTO) are systemically investigated under soft constraints. The reason for requiring soft constraints adjustment and objective relaxation simultaneously is that the result is not satisfactory when the feasible region is apart from the desired working point or the optimization problem is infeasible. The mixed logic method is introduced to describe the priority of the constraints and objectives, thereby the soft constraints adjustment and objectives coordination are solved together in RTO. A case study on the Shell heavy oil fractionators benchmark problem illustrating the method is finally presented.

Two-echelon inventory model with service level constraint and controllable lead time sensitive to order quantity

The decision-making and optimization of two-echelon inventory coordination were analyzed with service level constraint and controllable lead time sensitive to order quantity.First,the basic model of this problem was established and based on relevant analysis,the original model could be transformed by minimax method.Then,the optimal order quantity and production quantity influenced by service level constraint were analyzed and the boundary of optimal order quantity and production quantity was given.According to this boundary,the effective method and tactics were put forward to solve the transformed model.In case analysis,the optimal expected total cost of two-echelon inventory can be obtained and it was analyzed how service level constraint and safety factor influence the optimal expected total cost of two-echelon inventory.The results show that the optimal expected total cost of two-echelon inventory is constrained by the higher constraint between service level constraint and safety factor.

A linear complementarity model for multibody systems with frictional unilateral and bilateral constraints

The Lagrange-I equations and measure differential equations for multibody systems with unilateral and bilateral constraints are constructed. For bilateral constraints, frictional forces and their impulses contain the products of the filled-in relay function induced by Coulomb friction and the absolute values of normal constraint reactions. With the time-stepping impulse-velocity scheme, the measure differential equations are discretized. The equations of horizontal linear complementarity problems （HLCPs）, which are used to compute the impulses, are constructed by decomposing the absolute function and the filled-in relay function. These HLCP equations degenerate into equations of LCPs for frictional unilateral constraints, or HLCPs for frictional bilateral constraints. Finally, a numerical simulation for multibody systems with both unilateral and bilateral constraints is presented.

Reinforcement⁃Learning⁃Based Appointed⁃Time Prescribed Performance Attitude Control for Rigid Spacecraft

This paper addresses a geometric control algorithm for the attitude tracking problem of the rigid spacecraft modeled on SO(3).Considering the topological and geometric properties of SO(3),we introduced a smooth positive attitude error function to convert the attitude tracking issue on SO(3)into the stabilization counterpart on its Lie algebra.The error transformation technique was further utilized to ensure the assigned transient and steady state performance of the attitude tracking error with the aid of a well⁃designed assigned⁃time performance function.Then,using the actor⁃critic(AC)neural architecture,an adaptive reinforcement learning approximator was constructed,in which the actor neural network(NN)was utilized to approximate the unknown nonlinearity online.A critic function was introduced to tune the next phase of the actor neural network operation for performance improvement via supervising the system performance.A rigorous stability analysis was presented to show that the assigned system performance can be achieved.Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of the constructed control strategy was verified by the numerical simulation.

改进蚁群算法的送餐机器人路径规划

蚁群算法拥有良好的全局性、自组织性、鲁棒性,但传统蚁群算法存在许多不足之处。为此,针对算法在路径规划问题中的缺陷,在传统蚁群算法的状态转移公式中,引入目标点距离因素和引导素,加快算法收敛性和改善局部最优缺陷。在带时间窗的车辆路径问题(vehicle routing problem with time windows,VRPTW)上,融合蚁群算法和遗传算法,并将顾客时间窗宽度以及机器人等待时间加入蚁群算法状态转移公式中,以及将蚁群算法的解作为遗传算法的初始种群,提高遗传算法的初始解质量,然后进行编码,设置违反时间窗约束和载重量的惩罚函数和适应度函数,在传统遗传算法的交叉、变异操作后加入了破坏-修复基因的操作来优化每一代新解的质量,在Solomon Benchmark算例上进行仿真,对比算法改进前后的最优解,验证算法可行性。最后在餐厅送餐问题中把带有障碍物的仿真环境路径规划问题和VRPTW问题结合,使用改进后的算法解决餐厅环境下送餐机器人对顾客服务配送问题。

基于最优经济运行区域的主动配电网日前日内协同调度方法

传统的日前-日内协同调度通常以与日前时序计划曲线偏差最小作为日内目标函数,当日内新能源出力预测值与日前相差较大时,储能装置(energy storage systems,ESS)等由于其时间耦合约束日内调整范围有限,导致经济性和灵活性较差。对此,提出了基于最优经济运行区域(optimal economic operation region,OEOR)的主动配电网(active distribution networks,ADN)日前-日内协同调度方法。在日前阶段,构建线性化ADN调度模型,基于拉丁超立方采样法生成的大量随机场景下调控设备优化曲线,以全时间段内设备出力上下界内所包含的随机场景优化结果数量最大为目标,考虑储能装置荷电状态的相邻时段约束和微型燃气轮机的爬/滑坡率,构建OEOR生成模型。最后,在日内阶段,调控设备在OEOR内滚动优化调整,当该时段优化值贴近OEOR边界时,考虑相邻时段出力约束,将OEOR扩展为最优经济极限运行区域(E-OEOR)。算例结果表明,所提方法相比于传统方法能够更有效地提升配电网经济性。

时间窗约束下农产品物流配送路径优化研究

农产品需求量增加对物流配送提出较高挑战,基于此提出时间窗约束下农产品物流配送路径优化方法研究。依客户预期服务时间需求,取混合时间窗约束函数确定时间窗、物流配送车辆最大载重、配送路径长度与物流配送车辆约束条件,构建农产品物流配送路径优化模型;基于农产品物流配送需求改进传统遗传算法,求解构建模型,即获农产品物流配送路径优化结果。实验结果显示:相较生鲜农产品多车型冷链物流车辆路径优化,所提方法最优农产品物流配送路径获取迭代次数更少、配送路径长度更短、总成本更低,应用性能更佳。

面向复杂物流配送场景的车辆路径规划多任务辅助进化算法

在现代社会中,复杂物流配送场景的车辆路径规划问题(Vehicle routing problem,VRP)一般带有时间窗约束且需要提供同时取送货的服务.这种复杂物流配送场景的车辆路径规划问题是NP-难问题.当其规模逐渐增大时,一般的数学规划方法难以求解,通常使用启发式方法在限定时间内求得较优解.然而,传统的启发式方法从原大规模问题直接开始搜索,无法利用先前相关的优化知识,导致收敛速度较慢.因此,提出面向复杂物流配送场景的车辆路径规划多任务辅助进化算法(Multitask-based assisted evolutionary algorithm,MBEA),通过使用迁移优化方法加快算法收敛速度,其主要思想是通过构造多个简单且相似的子任务用于辅助优化原大规模问题.首先从原大规模问题中随机选择一部分客户订单用于构建多个不同的相似优化子任务,然后使用进化多任务(Evolutional multitasking,EMT)方法用于生成原大规模问题和优化子任务的候选解.由于优化子任务相对简单且与原大规模问题相似,其搜索得到的路径特征可以通过任务之间的知识迁移辅助优化原大规模问题,从而加快其求解速度.最后,提出的算法在京东物流公司快递取送货数据集上进行验证,其路径规划效果优于当前最新提出的路径规划算法.

具有紧时、高能耗特征的混合流水车间多目标调度优化问题

针对具有紧时、高能耗工序特征的混合流水车间调度问题,以优化产品暴露时间、最大完工时间和能源消耗为目标,建立混合流水车间调度模型,并提出一种改进的多目标粒子群算法进行有效求解。首先构建了基于ISDE指标的档案维护策略及局部邻域搜索策略,辅助算法跃出局部极值及减少生产阻塞。之后,提出一种基于模糊理论的决策分析方法选取最优调度方案。最后,通过仿真实验验证提出的多目标调度模型与算法的可行性和优越性。

深部地层智能压井多解性分析与优化策略

开发深部地层油气资源时普遍存在地质条件复杂、钻井周期长和井筒压力控制困难等问题,采用智能压井方法结合多源实时信息反馈,可实现井筒内气液分布状态和压力变化规律的实时预测与更新,但不同修正系数组合可能得到相同的压力计算结果,导致模型存在多解性难题。为此,分析了不同历史时间节点解空间形态的演变规律,揭示了模型多解性的本质源于少量数据约束下模型训练的不完善性;并对应建立了基于实时信息序列的模型全局训练优化方法及动态随机种群训练优化方法,测试了其对于模型全局最优解的搜索能力及适用条件。测试结果表明,全局训练优化方法在压井初期能够实现精准调控,但计算耗时较长;而动态随机种群训练优化方法在压井初期与预期值略有差异,但计算耗时较少。根据可用计算资源情况选择合适的训练优化方法,可实现多源实时数据约束下模型关于井筒气液流动规律的深度学习。