A Probabilistic Description of the Impact of Vaccine-Induced Immunity in the Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has caused millions of deaths worldwide and a huge societal and economic impact in virtually all countries. A large variety of mathematical models to describe the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission have been reported. Among them, Bayesian probabilistic models of COVID-19 transmission dynamics have been very efficient in the interpretation of early data from the beginning of the pandemic, helping to estimate the impact of non-pharmacological measures in each country, and forecasting the evolution of the pandemic in different potential scenarios. These models use probability distribution curves to describe key dynamic aspects of the transmission, like the probability for every infected person of infecting other individuals, dying or recovering, with parameters obtained from experimental epidemiological data. However, the impact of vaccine-induced immunity, which has been key for controlling the public health emergency caused by the pandemic, has been more challenging to describe in these models, due to the complexity of experimental data. Here we report different probability distribution curves to model the acquisition and decay of immunity after vaccination. We discuss the mathematical background and how these models can be integrated in existing Bayesian probabilistic models to provide a good estimation of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission during the entire pandemic period.

Deoxyribonucleic Acid-Polymerase Chain Reaction Status of HIV Exposed Infants in a Sub Regional Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV Programme during the Period 2009-2020

Introduction: Transitioning to more efficacious Antiretrovirals for HIV infected pregnant women and infant prophylaxis has reduced Mother to child transmission of HIV significantly. This study aimed to determine HIV infection status in HIVexposed infants who had their first DNA polymerase chain reaction test in our molecular Laboratory. Subjects, Materials and Methods: Dried Blood Spots for HIV DNA results from 5 states between 2009 and 2020 were analyzed in the PCR laboratory of the Federal Teaching Hospital, Gombe. Results: Nine thousand eight hundred and twenty-three Human Immunodeficiency Virus Deoxyribonucleic acid polymerase Chain Reaction results were analysed;4937 (50.2%) were males. During the study period, there was an overall declining trend in the mother-to-child transmission rate from 3.8% in 2009 to 1.0% in 2020. 6120 (62.3%) of HIV + mothers received Highly active antiretroviral therapy HAART before pregnancy. 7845 (76.2%) of the infants received Nevirapine prophylaxis. Dried blood spot samples were collected from 4077 (41.5%) at 6 - 8 weeks. 8438 (85.9%) received cotrimoxazole. 9469 (96.4%) were ever breastfed. Of the 9823 HIV DNA PCR results, 255 (2.6%) were positive while 69/4077 (1.7%) and 109/2662 (4.1%) were positive for HIV DNA at 6 - 8 weeks and > 12 weeks respectively. (p = 0.001). 86/747 (11.5%) of infants whose HIV-positive mothers received no ARVS were HIV DNA positive. (p = 0.001). 106/884 (12.0%) of infants who had no Antiretroviral prophylaxis had positive HIV DNA results;7/413 (1.7%) with Zidovudine/Nevirapine prophylaxis had positive results. (p = 0.001). 246/9469 (2.6%) of infants that were ever breastfed were positive for HIV DNA;11/354 (3.0%) that never breastfed had positive HIV DNA. Conclusion: Lack of maternal/infant ARVs and prolonged breastfeeding increased the risk of infant HIV infection.

Design and implementation of multi-hop video transmission experiment system in VANET

Abts ract A wireless mutl i-hop videot ransmission experiment system is designed and implemented for vehiculra ad-hoc networks VANET and the rt ansm ission control protocol and routing protocol are proposed. This system in tegrates the embedded Linux system witha n ARM kernel and oc ns ists of a S3C6410 main control module a wirel ss local arean etwork WLAN card a LCD screne and so on.In the scenario of a wireless multi-hop video transmission both the H.264 and JPEG are used and their performances such as the compression rate delay and frame loss rate are analyzed in theory andc ompared in the experiment.The system is tested in the real indoor and outdoor environment.The results show that the scheme of the multi-hop video transmission experiment system can be applicable for VANET and multiple scenes and the transmission control protocol and routing protocol proposed can achieve real-time transmission and meet multi-hop requirements.

Design and Analysis of the Gemini Chain System in Dual Clutch Transmission of Automobile

Chain drive system is widely used in the conditions of high-speed, overload, variable speed and load, Many studies are focused on the meshing theory and wear characteristics of chain drive system, but system design, analysis, and noise characteristics of the chain drive system are weak. System design and noise characteristic are studied for a new type Gemini chain of dual-clutch automatic transmission. Based on the meshing theory of silent chain, the design parameters of the Gemini chain system are calculated and the mathematical models and dynamic analysis models of the Gemini chain system are established. Dynamic characteristics of the Gemini chain system is simulated and the contact force of plate and pin, plate and sprockets, the chain tension forces, the transmission error and the stress of plates and pins are analyzed. According to the simulation results of the Gemini chain system, the noise experiment about system is carried out. The noise values are tested at different speed and load and spectral characteristics are analyzed. The results of simulation and experimental show that the contact forces of plate and pin, plate and sprockets are smaller than the allowable stress values, the chain tension force is less than ultimate tension and transmission error is limited in 1.2%. The noise values can meet the requirements of industrial design, and it is proved that the design and analysis method of the Gemini chain system is scientific and feasible. The design and test system is built from analysis to test of Gemini chain system. This research presented will provide a corresponding theoretical guidance for the design and dynamic characteristics and noise characteristics of chain drive system.

Vertical Price Transmission in the China's Layer Industry Chain:an Application of FDL Approach

This paper examines the vertical price relationship between upstream and downstream products in China＇s layer industry chain by estimating elasticity coefficients of the price transmission. We use cointegration tests, error correction models and finite distributed lag models to analyze vertical price shifts between corn, layer feed, egg-laying chicken and egg prices. With monthly data from 1994 to 2010, our results show that various prices in China＇s layer industry chain are well integrated. In addition, our results indicate that both long-run and short-run price relationships between upstream and downstream products in layer industry chain exist and the long-run equilibrium, to a certain extent, may eliminate the short-run dynamics price deviation. We also found that the influence of corn and feed prices on egg prices is still more remarkable than egg-laying chicken prices. Our findings imply that governments should pay more attention to corn and layer feed prices in order to stabilize egg prices under the conditions of market integration.

Reconstructing early transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 using a genomic mutation model

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has greatly damaged human society,but the origins and early transmission patterns of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)pathogen remain unclear.Here,we reconstructed the transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 during the first three and six months since its first report based on ancestor-offspring relationships using BANAL-52-referenced mutations.We explored the position(i.e.,root,middle,or tip)of early detected samples in the evolutionary tree of SARS-CoV-2.In total,6799 transmission chains and 1766 transmission networks were reconstructed,with chain lengths ranging from 1-9 nodes.The root node samples of the 1766 transmission networks were from 58 countries or regions and showed no common ancestor,indicating the occurrence of many independent or parallel transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 when first detected(i.e.,all samples were located at the tip position of the evolutionary tree).No root node sample was found in any sample(n=31,all from the Chinese mainland)collected in the first 15 days from 24 December 2019.Results using six-month data or RaTG13-referenced mutation data were similar.The reconstruction method was verified using a simulation approach.Our results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have already been spreading independently worldwide before the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan,China.Thus,a comprehensive global survey of human and animal samples is essential to explore the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and its natural reservoirs and hosts.

Exploration of transmission chain and prevention of the recurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 in Heilongjiang Province due to inhospital transmission

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic is a major public health emergency characterized by fast spread,a wide range of infections,and enormous control difficulty.Since the end of December 2019,Wuhan has become the first core infection area of China's COVID-19 outbreak.Since March 2020,the domestic worst-hit areas have moved to the Heilongjiang Province due to the increased number of imported COVID-19 cases.Herein,we reported the major COVID-19 outbreak,which caused a rebound of the epidemic in Harbin,China.After the rebound,different levels of causes for the recurrence of COVID-19,including citylevel,hospital-level,and medical staff-level cause,were investigated.Meanwhile,corresponding countermeasures to prevent the recurrence of the epidemic were also carried out on the city level,hospital level,and medical staff level,which eventually showed the effect of infection control function in a pandemic.In this study,we described the complete transmission chain,analyzed the causes of the outbreak,and proposed corresponding countermeasures from our practical clinical experience,which can be used as a valuable reference for COVID-19 control.

Multi-Hop Free Space Optical Communications Using Serial Decode-and-Forward Relay Transmissions

This paper investigates the performance of multi-hop Free Space Optical(FSO) communications using serial Decode-and-Forward(DF) relay transmissions.A statistical model for the optical intensity fluctuation at the receiver due to the combined effects of atmospheric turbulence-induced fading,mis alignment fading and pass-loss is presented.Under given weather and mis alignment conditions,a closed-form analytical expression for the end-to-end outage probability of serial Decode-and-Forward(DF) multi-hop FSO communications is derived.Numerical results show that the serial DF multi-hop transmission is a promising technology to enhance the performance of FSO communications.Moreover,the derived analytical expression can provide close approximations to the simulation results.

Industrial transmission effect of international metal price shocks in perspective of industry chain

Based on a new perspective of industry chain and selecting monthly data from February2006to December2015,this paper chooses eight Chinese industrial sectors to construct a SVAR model reflecting internal relationships among metal chains,analyzes the direct effects and indirect effects of international metal prices on output of various links in metal chains,then it investigates the main transmission path of international metal price shocks through decomposing the inflation pressure sources in metal chains.The results show that international metal price shocks not only affect industrial output in a direct way,but also indirectly affect the growth of output through the increased pressure on industrial inflation and then triggering a tightening of monetary policy implementation.Affected by factors such as the lack of market demand and the price transmission mechanism blocking,the direct effects of international metal price shocks mainly impact the upstream and midstream industry,while the downstream industry is mainly affected by indirect effects;in addition,the international metal price shocks have spillover effects on the industrial inflation,and transmit along the industry chain from upstream to downstream,and their strength weakens in sequence.

A METHOD OF ANALYSIS OF MACHINE TOOL TRANSMISSION CHAIN ERROR

The indexing transmission chain error of gear cutting machines is an obviously periodic timefunction. If data are acquired properly while surveying and analyzing the error with grating typeinstrument attached to a micro-computer, the analysis will be easier and quicker. In this paper,such a system is introduced; a data acquiring interface is designed. Therefore, real-time samplingcan be performed. The results obtained from the indexing tramsmission chain error of several gearhobbing and shaping machines with this system were satisfactory.

Optimum Determination of Partial Transmission Ratios of Mechanical Driven Systems Using a Chain Drive and a Two-step Helical Gearbox

This paper presents a study on optimum determination of partial ratios of mechanical drive systems using a chain drive and two-step helical gearbox for getting minimum size of the system. The chosen objective function was the cross section dimension of the system. In solving the optimization problem, the design equation for pitting resistance of a gear set was investigated and equations on moment equilibrium condition of a mechanic system including a chain drive and two helical gear units and their regular resistance condition were analyses. From the results of the study, effective formulas for determination of the partial ratios of the chain drive and two-step helical gearboxes were introduced. As the formulas are explicit, the partial ratios can be calculated accurately and simply.

Combined-Type Continuous Variable Transmission with Quadric Crank Chains and One-Way Clutches

The conventional Continuously Variable Transmission （CVT） has been classified as belt-type or toroidal CVTs. Each CVT is fundamentally composed of several components to transmit the frictional force or torque generated by the driving force. Since the conventional CVTs use friction force, their energy （force or torque） transfer efficiency might be inferior due to slippage and pressure between the transmission components. Consequently, we propose a new type of structural CVT. The CVT we proposed in this paper means a combined-type transmission with quadric crank chains and one-way clutches.

Continuously Variable Transmission Using Quadric Crank Chains and Ratchets

This paper describes the CVT （continuously variable transmission）. Generally, CVTs are classified as belt-type or toroidal CVTs, and each CVT is basically composed of two parts such as the V-belt and pulley, or friction wheels. In the belt-type CVT, the pulley is driven by a belt placed between two （left and right） circle boards, while in the toroidal CVT, two rollers rotate under the condition being pushed by strong compression power. Since these conventional CVTs use friction force, their energy transfer efficiency might be inferior. Furthermore, although these CVTs require precise structures and processing, they make noise, and are not durable. Consequently, we propose a new structural CVT in this paper.

Price Transmission in China's Swine Industry with an Application of MCM

The paper studies the relationship, adjustment ability, path, efficiency and intensity of price transmission in the swine industry chain in China, which consists of the prices of corn, compound feed for fattening pig, piglet, pig and pork. Monthly prices covering a period of 18 yr （1994-2011） are analyzed using a Market-Chain Cooperated Model （MCM）. The empirical results show that there exists a stable long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic relationship in the price system. First, the adjustment speed of each price series is very slow and the transmission path is top-down and one-way significantly. Second, the price from upstream to downstream lags about 2 mort, while there is no lag in price transmission from midstream to downstream. Third, in terms of price transmission intensity, the price of pig impacted greatly on pork price, not only in the current period but also through the whole period. Besides, the price of corn has the largest lagged effects on pork price. According to the above empirical results, we suggest that government should strengthen monitoring and early warning of the swine industry chain, especially the upstream and midstream, attach great importance to the timely adjustment of feed prices and perfect the measures of price subsidy.

Asymptomatic Genital Infection of Human Papillomavirus in Pregnant Women and the Vertical Transmission Route

To further investigate the vertical transmission route of human papillomavirus (HPV) and the indication for the choice of mode of delivery, the infective status of 152 asymptomatic pregnant wemen and the maternal-fetal transmission were studied. By using general primers in polymerase chain reaction (GP-PCR) combined with restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis, HPV DNA positive rate in cervical secretions and venous blood in asymptomatic pregnant women was 36.21 % and 52.78 %, respectively, and the identified genotypes were mainly HPV_16 and _18. The maternal-fetal transmission rate of HPV via genital tract as well as blood was 40.91 % and 57.89 %, respectively. It was concluded that besides the transmission route of genital tract and amniotic fluid, there was also transplacental transmission of HPV in utero. Therefore,in our opinion, it is not an absolut indication to perform a cesarean delivery for the pregnant women with HPV asymtomatic genital infection.

Dynamic Analysis on the Main Transmission Device of Wooden Ice Cream Sticks Branding Machine

In order to reduce the labor intensity,improve the production efficiency and enhance the equipment stability and the branding accuracy of the pattern,we have completed a double-row high-efficiency wooden ice cream stick branding machine structural design.The rigid-flexible coupling dynamics model is established and the movement and stress of the first-stage chain drive are calculated and analyzed.The comparison of the theoretical calculation results shows that the dynamic modeling and the structural design of the equipment are reasonable and the result of dynamic calculation also provides the basis of load data for dynamic strength calculation of structural components.

Best-retransmission count selection for environment optimization over wireless heterogeneous networks

This paper proposes an environment-aware best- retransmission count selected optimization control scheme over IEEE 802.11 multi-hop wireless networks. The proposed scheme predicts the wireless resources by using statistical channel state and provides maximum retransmission count optimization based on wireless channel environment state to improve the packet delivery success ratio. The media access control （MAC） layer selects the best-retransmission count by perceiving the types of packet loss in wireless link and using the wireless channel charac- teristics and environment information, and adjusts the packet for- warding adaptively aiming at improving the packet retransmission probability. Simulation results show that the best-retransmission count selected scheme achieves a higher packet successful delivery percentage and a lower packet collision probability than the corresponding traditional MAC transmission control protocols.

Optimized transmission coordination mechanisms for opportunistic routing

The successful rate of transmission coordination of opportunistic routing （OK） is analyzea systematically, and then two efficient transmission coordination mechanisms （TCMs） are proposed for OR： a batch sliding window-based TCM and a bit map-based TCM, to reduce the total number of packet transmissions and improve end-to-end throughput for OR. The batch sliding window-based TCM avoids the oscillation of the successful rate of transmission coordination by transmitting packets in continuous batch mode so as to improve the average successful rate of transmission coordination efficiently, while the bit map-based TCM improves end-to-end throughput of OR by reducing the overhead of transmission coordination. Exhaustive simulations show that the average end-to-end throughput gains of the two proposed TCMs are 15.4% and 6.4% over the batch map-based TCM, respectively.

国际贸易供应链韧性评估与风险传导研究--基于重大突发事件冲击下的国际视角

重大突发事件频发使得国际贸易供应链安全问题成为各国政府关注的重要议题。全文基于全球重大卫生事件冲击下的国际视角,采用CoDEA模型分步评估供应链初始节点、子链和整体链条韧性,并利用社会网络分析法,进一步探究各节点经济体在风险传导中的角色与功能。结果表明:(1)此次疫情的冲击存在于国际贸易供应链的上游、中游与下游三个节点,对整体韧性的补偿作用有限且成本高昂;(2)风险传导与风险抵御能力不同步,在此次疫情冲击下,风险传导影响力较强的经济体通常不具备较强的供应链韧性,而中国较强的风险抵御能力对强化国际供应链网络韧性起到积极作用;(3)经济体因风险厌恶情绪,试图通过边缘化规避冲击,但并未产生实质性的避险效果;(4)相较于主受益板块与经纪人板块,此次风险传导关系以溢出板块为主,过多的外溢促使风险交叉迭代传播,加剧了疫情对国际贸易供应链的冲击损伤。基于此文章提出国际贸易供应链韧性提升与风险防范的政策启示。

新贸易保护主义视角下中国新能源汽车产业链安全风险传导与防范

产业链安全是现代化产业体系建设的关键,是有效抵御外部冲击的重要保障。通过剖析新能源汽车领域欧美新贸易保护主义的表现形式,识别出相关安全风险,进而厘清传导机制,最后提出风险防范及应对策略。研究结果表明:就新能源汽车产业链而言,新贸易保护主义主要表现为,欧美国家从技术、经贸、组织与规则多个层面对中国新能源汽车产业链的限制;风险识别发现新能源汽车产业链面临技术封锁风险、贸易壁垒风险、系统性风险和市场偏转风险;相关风险主要通过供给冲击、需求收缩和预期转弱三条传导路径作用于产业链。基于上述结论,针对新能源汽车产业链各环节以及全链预警防范提出了应对策略。