Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory...Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.展开更多
Diabetes mellitus is associated with foot ulcers,which frequently pave the way to lower-extremity amputation.Neuropathy,trauma,deformity,high plantar pressures,and peripheral vascular disease are the most common under...Diabetes mellitus is associated with foot ulcers,which frequently pave the way to lower-extremity amputation.Neuropathy,trauma,deformity,high plantar pressures,and peripheral vascular disease are the most common underlying causes.Around 15%of diabetic patients are affected by diabetic foot ulcer in their lifetime.64 million people are affected by diabetics in India and 40000 amputations are done every year.Foot ulcers are evaluated and classified in a systematic and thorough manner to assist in determining the best course of therapy.This paper proposes a novel model which predicts the threat of diabetic foot ulcer using independent agents for various input values and a combination of fuzzy expert systems.The proposed model uses a classification system to distinguish between each fuzzy framework and its parameters.Based on the severity levels necessary prevention,treatment,and medication are recommended.Combining the results of all the fuzzy frameworks derived from its constituent parameters,a risk-specific medication is recommended.The work also has higher accuracy when compared to other related models.展开更多
One objective of developing machine learning(ML)-based material models is to integrate them with well-established numerical methods to solve boundary value problems(BVPs).In the family of ML models,recurrent neural ne...One objective of developing machine learning(ML)-based material models is to integrate them with well-established numerical methods to solve boundary value problems(BVPs).In the family of ML models,recurrent neural networks(RNNs)have been extensively applied to capture history-dependent constitutive responses of granular materials,but these multiple-step-based neural networks are neither sufficiently efficient nor aligned with the standard finite element method(FEM).Single-step-based neural networks like the multi-layer perceptron(MLP)are an alternative to bypass the above issues but have to introduce some internal variables to encode complex loading histories.In this work,one novel Frobenius norm-based internal variable,together with the Fourier layer and residual architectureenhanced MLP model,is crafted to replicate the history-dependent constitutive features of representative volume element(RVE)for granular materials.The obtained ML models are then seamlessly embedded into the FEM to solve the BVP of a biaxial compression case and a rigid strip footing case.The obtained solutions are comparable to results from the FEM-DEM multiscale modelling but achieve significantly improved efficiency.The results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed internal variable in enabling MLP to capture highly nonlinear constitutive responses of granular materials.展开更多
A flexible extra broadband metamaterial absorber(MMA)stacked with five layers working at 2 GHz–40 GHz is investigated.Each layer is composed of polyvinyl chloride(PVC),polyimide(PI),and a frequency selective surface(...A flexible extra broadband metamaterial absorber(MMA)stacked with five layers working at 2 GHz–40 GHz is investigated.Each layer is composed of polyvinyl chloride(PVC),polyimide(PI),and a frequency selective surface(FSS),which is printed on PI using conductive ink.To investigate this absorber,both one-dimensional analogous circuit analysis and three-dimensional full-wave simulation based on a physical model are provided.Various crucial electromagnetic properties,such as absorption,effective impedance,complex permittivity and permeability,electric current distribution and magnetic field distribution at resonant peak points,are studied in detail.Analysis shows that the working frequency of this absorber covers entire S,C,X,Ku,K and Ka bands with a minimum thickness of 0.098λ_(max)(λ_(max) is the maximum wavelength in the absorption band),and the fractional bandwidth(FBW)reaches 181.1%.Moreover,the reflection coefficient is less than-10 dB at 1.998 GHz–40.056 GHz at normal incidence,and the absorptivity of the plane wave is greater than 80%when the incident angle is smaller than 50°.Furthermore,the proposed absorber is experimentally validated,and the experimental results show good agreement with the simulation results,which demonstrates the potential applicability of this absorber at 2 GHz–40 GHz.展开更多
安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
The safety factor is a crucial quantitative index for evaluating slope stability.However,the traditional calculation methods suffer from unreasonable assumptions,complex soil composition,and inadequate consideration o...The safety factor is a crucial quantitative index for evaluating slope stability.However,the traditional calculation methods suffer from unreasonable assumptions,complex soil composition,and inadequate consideration of the influencing factors,leading to large errors in their calculations.Therefore,a stacking ensemble learning model(stacking-SSAOP)based on multi-layer regression algorithm fusion and optimized by the sparrow search algorithm is proposed for predicting the slope safety factor.In this method,the density,cohesion,friction angle,slope angle,slope height,and pore pressure ratio are selected as characteristic parameters from the 210 sets of established slope sample data.Random Forest,Extra Trees,AdaBoost,Bagging,and Support Vector regression are used as the base model(inner loop)to construct the first-level regression algorithm layer,and XGBoost is used as the meta-model(outer loop)to construct the second-level regression algorithm layer and complete the construction of the stacked learning model for improving the model prediction accuracy.The sparrow search algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the above six regression models and correct the over-and underfitting problems of the single regression model to further improve the prediction accuracy.The mean square error(MSE)of the predicted and true values and the fitting of the data are compared and analyzed.The MSE of the stacking-SSAOP model was found to be smaller than that of the single regression model(MSE=0.03917).Therefore,the former has a higher prediction accuracy and better data fitting.This study innovatively applies the sparrow search algorithm to predict the slope safety factor,showcasing its advantages over traditional methods.Additionally,our proposed stacking-SSAOP model integrates multiple regression algorithms to enhance prediction accuracy.This model not only refines the prediction accuracy of the slope safety factor but also offers a fresh approach to handling the intricate soil composition and other influencing factors,making it a precise and reliable method for slope stability evaluation.This research holds importance for the modernization and digitalization of slope safety assessments.展开更多
Marine umbilical is one of the key equipment for subsea oil and gas exploitation,which is usually integrated by a great number of different functional components with multi-layers.The layout of these components direct...Marine umbilical is one of the key equipment for subsea oil and gas exploitation,which is usually integrated by a great number of different functional components with multi-layers.The layout of these components directly affects manufacturing,operation and storage performances of the umbilical.For the multi-layer cross-sectional layout design of the umbilical,a quantifiable multi-objective optimization model is established according to the operation and storage requirements.Considering the manufacturing factors,the multi-layering strategy based on contact point identification is introduced for a great number of functional components.Then,the GA-GLM global optimization algorithm is proposed combining the genetic algorithm and the generalized multiplier method,and the selection operator of the genetic algorithm is improved based on the steepest descent method.Genetic algorithm is used to find the optimal solution in the global space,which can converge from any initial layout to the feasible layout solution.The feasible layout solution is taken as the initial value of the generalized multiplier method for fast and accurate solution.Finally,taking umbilicals with a great number of components as examples,the results show that the cross-sectional performance of the umbilical obtained by optimization algorithm is better and the solution efficiency is higher.Meanwhile,the multi-layering strategy is effective and feasible.The design method proposed in this paper can quickly obtain the optimal multi-layer cross-sectional layout,which replaces the manual design,and provides useful reference and guidance for the umbilical industry.展开更多
Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,...Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.展开更多
This paper introduces the construction of the multi-layered biaxial weft knitted fabric (MBWK fabric) and studies the locking angle of this kind of fabric. Moreover, a locking angle model of the MBWK fabric is estab...This paper introduces the construction of the multi-layered biaxial weft knitted fabric (MBWK fabric) and studies the locking angle of this kind of fabric. Moreover, a locking angle model of the MBWK fabric is established for the first time according to its unique construction. Two kinds of locking angles are considered under different restraint conditions: the locking angle θ1 controlled by the inserting yarns and the locking angle θ2 controlled by the stitch yarns. It is concluded that the ultimate value of the locking angle θ is the larger one of the two angles.展开更多
Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation ...Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.展开更多
Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnectio...Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.展开更多
Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(...Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(HD),and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis(ALS).Currently,there are no therapies available that can delay,stop,or reverse the pathological progression of NDs in clinical settings.As the population ages,NDs are imposing a huge burden on public health systems and affected families.Animal models are important tools for preclinical investigations to understand disease pathogenesis and test potential treatments.While numerous rodent models of NDs have been developed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms,the limited success of translating findings from animal models to clinical practice suggests that there is still a need to bridge this translation gap.Old World nonhuman primates(NHPs),such as rhesus,cynomolgus,and vervet monkeys,are phylogenetically,physiologically,biochemically,and behaviorally most relevant to humans.This is particularly evident in the similarity of the structure and function of their central nervous systems,rendering such species uniquely valuable for neuroscience research.Recently,the development of several genetically modified NHP models of NDs has successfully recapitulated key pathologies and revealed novel mechanisms.This review focuses on the efficacy of NHPs in modeling NDs and the novel pathological insights gained,as well as the challenges associated with the generation of such models and the complexities involved in their subsequent analysis.展开更多
Despite being one of the oldest and most widely-used turbulence models in engineering computational fluid dynamics(CFD),the k-ωmodel has not been fully understood theoretically because of its high nonlinearity and co...Despite being one of the oldest and most widely-used turbulence models in engineering computational fluid dynamics(CFD),the k-ωmodel has not been fully understood theoretically because of its high nonlinearity and complex model parameter setting.Here,a multi-layer analytic expression is postulated for two lengths(stress and kinetic energy lengths),yielding an analytic solution for the k-ωmodel equations in pipe flow.Approximate local balance equations are analyzed to determine the key parameters in the solution,which are shown to be rather close to the empirically-measured values from the numerical solution of the Wilcox k-ωmodel,and hence the analytic construction is fully validated.The results provide clear evidence that the k-ωmodel sets in it a multilayer structure,which is similar to but different,in some insignificant details,from the Navier-Stokes(N-S)turbulence.This finding explains why the k-ωmodel is so popular,especially in computing the near-wall flow.Finally,the analysis is extended to a newlyrefined k-ωmodel called the structural ensemble dynamics(SED)k-ωmodel,showing that the SED k-ωmodel has improved the multi-layer structure in the outer flow but preserved the setting of the k-ωmodel in the inner region.展开更多
文摘Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.
文摘Diabetes mellitus is associated with foot ulcers,which frequently pave the way to lower-extremity amputation.Neuropathy,trauma,deformity,high plantar pressures,and peripheral vascular disease are the most common underlying causes.Around 15%of diabetic patients are affected by diabetic foot ulcer in their lifetime.64 million people are affected by diabetics in India and 40000 amputations are done every year.Foot ulcers are evaluated and classified in a systematic and thorough manner to assist in determining the best course of therapy.This paper proposes a novel model which predicts the threat of diabetic foot ulcer using independent agents for various input values and a combination of fuzzy expert systems.The proposed model uses a classification system to distinguish between each fuzzy framework and its parameters.Based on the severity levels necessary prevention,treatment,and medication are recommended.Combining the results of all the fuzzy frameworks derived from its constituent parameters,a risk-specific medication is recommended.The work also has higher accuracy when compared to other related models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.12072217).
文摘One objective of developing machine learning(ML)-based material models is to integrate them with well-established numerical methods to solve boundary value problems(BVPs).In the family of ML models,recurrent neural networks(RNNs)have been extensively applied to capture history-dependent constitutive responses of granular materials,but these multiple-step-based neural networks are neither sufficiently efficient nor aligned with the standard finite element method(FEM).Single-step-based neural networks like the multi-layer perceptron(MLP)are an alternative to bypass the above issues but have to introduce some internal variables to encode complex loading histories.In this work,one novel Frobenius norm-based internal variable,together with the Fourier layer and residual architectureenhanced MLP model,is crafted to replicate the history-dependent constitutive features of representative volume element(RVE)for granular materials.The obtained ML models are then seamlessly embedded into the FEM to solve the BVP of a biaxial compression case and a rigid strip footing case.The obtained solutions are comparable to results from the FEM-DEM multiscale modelling but achieve significantly improved efficiency.The results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed internal variable in enabling MLP to capture highly nonlinear constitutive responses of granular materials.
基金Project supported by the China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671834)the Anhui Province Post-doctoral Science Foundation,China(Grant No.2020A397).
文摘A flexible extra broadband metamaterial absorber(MMA)stacked with five layers working at 2 GHz–40 GHz is investigated.Each layer is composed of polyvinyl chloride(PVC),polyimide(PI),and a frequency selective surface(FSS),which is printed on PI using conductive ink.To investigate this absorber,both one-dimensional analogous circuit analysis and three-dimensional full-wave simulation based on a physical model are provided.Various crucial electromagnetic properties,such as absorption,effective impedance,complex permittivity and permeability,electric current distribution and magnetic field distribution at resonant peak points,are studied in detail.Analysis shows that the working frequency of this absorber covers entire S,C,X,Ku,K and Ka bands with a minimum thickness of 0.098λ_(max)(λ_(max) is the maximum wavelength in the absorption band),and the fractional bandwidth(FBW)reaches 181.1%.Moreover,the reflection coefficient is less than-10 dB at 1.998 GHz–40.056 GHz at normal incidence,and the absorptivity of the plane wave is greater than 80%when the incident angle is smaller than 50°.Furthermore,the proposed absorber is experimentally validated,and the experimental results show good agreement with the simulation results,which demonstrates the potential applicability of this absorber at 2 GHz–40 GHz.
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金supported by the Basic Research Special Plan of Yunnan Provincial Department of Science and Technology-General Project(Grant No.202101AT070094)。
文摘The safety factor is a crucial quantitative index for evaluating slope stability.However,the traditional calculation methods suffer from unreasonable assumptions,complex soil composition,and inadequate consideration of the influencing factors,leading to large errors in their calculations.Therefore,a stacking ensemble learning model(stacking-SSAOP)based on multi-layer regression algorithm fusion and optimized by the sparrow search algorithm is proposed for predicting the slope safety factor.In this method,the density,cohesion,friction angle,slope angle,slope height,and pore pressure ratio are selected as characteristic parameters from the 210 sets of established slope sample data.Random Forest,Extra Trees,AdaBoost,Bagging,and Support Vector regression are used as the base model(inner loop)to construct the first-level regression algorithm layer,and XGBoost is used as the meta-model(outer loop)to construct the second-level regression algorithm layer and complete the construction of the stacked learning model for improving the model prediction accuracy.The sparrow search algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the above six regression models and correct the over-and underfitting problems of the single regression model to further improve the prediction accuracy.The mean square error(MSE)of the predicted and true values and the fitting of the data are compared and analyzed.The MSE of the stacking-SSAOP model was found to be smaller than that of the single regression model(MSE=0.03917).Therefore,the former has a higher prediction accuracy and better data fitting.This study innovatively applies the sparrow search algorithm to predict the slope safety factor,showcasing its advantages over traditional methods.Additionally,our proposed stacking-SSAOP model integrates multiple regression algorithms to enhance prediction accuracy.This model not only refines the prediction accuracy of the slope safety factor but also offers a fresh approach to handling the intricate soil composition and other influencing factors,making it a precise and reliable method for slope stability evaluation.This research holds importance for the modernization and digitalization of slope safety assessments.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52001088,52271269,U1906233)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(Grant No.LH2021E050)+2 种基金the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering(Grant No.GKZD010084)Liaoning Province’s Xing Liao Talents Program(Grant No.XLYC2002108)Dalian City Supports Innovation and Entrepreneurship Projects for High-Level Talents(Grant No.2021RD16)。
文摘Marine umbilical is one of the key equipment for subsea oil and gas exploitation,which is usually integrated by a great number of different functional components with multi-layers.The layout of these components directly affects manufacturing,operation and storage performances of the umbilical.For the multi-layer cross-sectional layout design of the umbilical,a quantifiable multi-objective optimization model is established according to the operation and storage requirements.Considering the manufacturing factors,the multi-layering strategy based on contact point identification is introduced for a great number of functional components.Then,the GA-GLM global optimization algorithm is proposed combining the genetic algorithm and the generalized multiplier method,and the selection operator of the genetic algorithm is improved based on the steepest descent method.Genetic algorithm is used to find the optimal solution in the global space,which can converge from any initial layout to the feasible layout solution.The feasible layout solution is taken as the initial value of the generalized multiplier method for fast and accurate solution.Finally,taking umbilicals with a great number of components as examples,the results show that the cross-sectional performance of the umbilical obtained by optimization algorithm is better and the solution efficiency is higher.Meanwhile,the multi-layering strategy is effective and feasible.The design method proposed in this paper can quickly obtain the optimal multi-layer cross-sectional layout,which replaces the manual design,and provides useful reference and guidance for the umbilical industry.
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)+1 种基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)。
文摘Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.
文摘This paper introduces the construction of the multi-layered biaxial weft knitted fabric (MBWK fabric) and studies the locking angle of this kind of fabric. Moreover, a locking angle model of the MBWK fabric is established for the first time according to its unique construction. Two kinds of locking angles are considered under different restraint conditions: the locking angle θ1 controlled by the inserting yarns and the locking angle θ2 controlled by the stitch yarns. It is concluded that the ultimate value of the locking angle θ is the larger one of the two angles.
文摘Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
基金supported by the NSF grant AGS-1928883the NASA grants,80NSSC20K1670 and 80MSFC20C0019+2 种基金support from NASA GSFC IRADHIFISFM funds。
文摘Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.
基金Supported by the Project of NINGBO Leading Medical Health Discipline,No.2022-B11Ningbo Natural Science Foundation,No.202003N4206Public Welfare Foundation of Ningbo,No.2021S108.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFF0702201)National Natural Science Foundation of China (81873736,31872779,81830032)+2 种基金Guangzhou Key Research Program on Brain Science (202007030008)Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province (2021ZT09Y007,2020B121201006,2018B030337001,2021A1515012526)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2021A1515012526,2022A1515012651)。
文摘Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(HD),and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis(ALS).Currently,there are no therapies available that can delay,stop,or reverse the pathological progression of NDs in clinical settings.As the population ages,NDs are imposing a huge burden on public health systems and affected families.Animal models are important tools for preclinical investigations to understand disease pathogenesis and test potential treatments.While numerous rodent models of NDs have been developed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms,the limited success of translating findings from animal models to clinical practice suggests that there is still a need to bridge this translation gap.Old World nonhuman primates(NHPs),such as rhesus,cynomolgus,and vervet monkeys,are phylogenetically,physiologically,biochemically,and behaviorally most relevant to humans.This is particularly evident in the similarity of the structure and function of their central nervous systems,rendering such species uniquely valuable for neuroscience research.Recently,the development of several genetically modified NHP models of NDs has successfully recapitulated key pathologies and revealed novel mechanisms.This review focuses on the efficacy of NHPs in modeling NDs and the novel pathological insights gained,as well as the challenges associated with the generation of such models and the complexities involved in their subsequent analysis.
基金the National Numerical Wind Tunnel(No.NNW2019ZT1-A03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.91952201,11372008,and 11452002)。
文摘Despite being one of the oldest and most widely-used turbulence models in engineering computational fluid dynamics(CFD),the k-ωmodel has not been fully understood theoretically because of its high nonlinearity and complex model parameter setting.Here,a multi-layer analytic expression is postulated for two lengths(stress and kinetic energy lengths),yielding an analytic solution for the k-ωmodel equations in pipe flow.Approximate local balance equations are analyzed to determine the key parameters in the solution,which are shown to be rather close to the empirically-measured values from the numerical solution of the Wilcox k-ωmodel,and hence the analytic construction is fully validated.The results provide clear evidence that the k-ωmodel sets in it a multilayer structure,which is similar to but different,in some insignificant details,from the Navier-Stokes(N-S)turbulence.This finding explains why the k-ωmodel is so popular,especially in computing the near-wall flow.Finally,the analysis is extended to a newlyrefined k-ωmodel called the structural ensemble dynamics(SED)k-ωmodel,showing that the SED k-ωmodel has improved the multi-layer structure in the outer flow but preserved the setting of the k-ωmodel in the inner region.