The Potential of Commercial Pension Insurance to Develop into One of the Pillars of Rural Pension Insurance:A Study from the Demand Perspective

The development of a multi-pillar pension insurance system is an effective solution for an aging society.Commercial pension insurance,as the third pillar of pension insurance,is an integral part of this system in China and can play a critical and complementary role in rural areas where support for the elderly is a more pressing concern and a second pillar of pension insurance remains absent.To this end,we first elaborate on the theoretical logic that commercial pension insurance can develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.We then empirically test rural residents’willingness to participate in a commercial pension insurance plan(CPIP)in a probit model with household research data from rural areas in major labor-exporting provinces,such as Sichuan and Henan so as to explore whether commercial pension insurance has the potential to become one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.Our research findings can be synthesized in three points.First,rural residents out of agricultural production for five consecutive years are more willing to participate in a CPIP than other rural residents,indicating that progress in industrialization and urbanization can significantly boost such willingness.Second,the younger rural residents are more inclined to participate in a CPIP than the older generation.Third,income increases can significantly boost rural residents’willingness to participate in a CPIP.Thus,with progress in industrialization and urbanization and an increase in rural disposable income,commercial pension insurance has a promising potential in rural areas and can hopefully develop into one of the pillars of rural pension insurance.

Research on Accounting Issues of the Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Employees

Pension insurance is a vital component of China's social security system,ensuring the welfare of the general publie.This study centers on the revenue and expenses of City S's urban employee basic pension insurance fund.It introduces and analyzes the fund's accounting status from four key perspectives:fund raising.expenditure,financial statement system,and accounting information disclosure.The research identifes existing problems in City S's accounting system and conducts in-depth research on these issues.Furthermore,an empirical analysis is conducted on the management of the pension insurance fund.Through this empirical study,the paper aims to offer insights and recommendations for promoting stable and healthy development measures for City S'8 urban employee basic pension insurance fund.

Study on Reasonable Premium Rate of Pension Insurance in China

By analyzing the cause of too high premium rate of pension insurance at present and discussing the current practice of Chinese Pension Insurance System, three models to determine the reasonable paying level of premium, returning level of retirement pay and premium rate are established. Comparatively speaking, these models solve the problem of the determination of the premium rate more scientifically and offer an effective analyzing means to the improvement of the Chinese Pension Insurance System.

Study on Improving Development Strategies of New Rural Social Pension Insurance System in Heilongjiang Province

Since 2009, the new rural pension insurance in Heilongjiang Province has obtained certain achievements, but the effects are not obvious. Reflection on the development process, we find that there are a lot of problems. Therefore, in order to guarantee the smooth implementation of new rural social pension insurance work in Heilongjiang Province, this paper combined with the reality to provide several suggestions for improving the new rural social pension insurance system in Heilongjiang Province.

Sensitivity of Personal Account Accumulated Value of New Rural Social Pension Insurance to Variation of Uncertainties

The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive influence on the payment level of personal account pension.The personal account accumulated value has a direct or indirect relationship with the income level of farmers,premium-paying level,the insured period,investment return rate of funds and other factors.Analysing the impact of infinitesimal variation of these factors on accumulated value of personal account pension,is of great significance to improving and consolidating personal account,and achieving sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance.

Optimization of Actuarial Model for Individual Account of Rural Social Pension Insurance

This paper firstly analyzes different payment methods of individual account and the pension replacement rate under the pension payment method.Results show that it will be more scientific and reasonable for the individual account of new rural social pension insurance to adopt the actuarial model of payment according to proportion of income and periodic prestation at variable amount.The Guiding Opinions on New Rural Social Pension Insurance sets forth individual account should be paid at fixed amount,and the insured voluntarily selects payment level as per criteria set by the State.The monthly calculation and distribution amount of pension is the total amount of individual account divided by139.Therefore,it should start from continuation of policies and make adjustment of payment level in accordance with growth of per capita net income of rural residents.When condition permits,it is expected to realize transition to payment as per income proportion and periodic prestation at variable amount.

Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

The Pay-as-You-Go System of Pension Insurance

The most recent trends in population dynamics have provoked a rigorous debate whether the private or the public pension insurance system should be predominant. The pay-as-you-go system is dominated by the state that guarantees its stability. Private pension insurance provides personal retirement accounts and proper ownership of the accumulated funds, but its sustainability during prolonged market crises and inadequate risk sharing are often questioned. In order to address this issue, this paper makes both an assessment and analysis of the arguments put forward in favor of the preservation of the pay-as-you-go system and a comparison of this system with some of the main characteristics of the private accounts system. This is the basis for seeking the objectively defined role of the pay-as-you-go system in the conditions of the market economy. A couple of conclusions that have been formulated might be of interest for the future improvement of the organization and management of pension insurance.

Analysis on the issue of migram workers pension insurance

Since the reform and opening up, an emerging force continues to promote the development of urbanization and modernization. They made a great contribution to society; it is the most urgent matter of concern by the State and Government about their pension insurance. Since the introduction of Social Insurance Law, weather it plays a role and protects a part overlooked group＇ pension insurance, we do not know the effect because of the short time. However, how to solve the problem of migrant workers pension insurance is needed to solve a major problem of our country. Therefore, this paper analyzes the current status quo and identifies the causes of the problem and puts forward reasonable suggestions.

Research on the Impact of the Pension Insurance System on the Optimization of the Consumption Structure of Rural Families

Presently,the growth of residents’consumption is slowing,which necessitates the expansion of domestic demand.Against this backdrop,research on the impact of pension insurance on the optimization of the consumption structure in rural areas not only facilitates the welfare of rural residents and improves their consumption structure but also boosts the sustainable and healthy development of the Chinese economy.This paper applies China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)micro-data in 2018 and adopts Propensity Score Matching(PSM)to research the impact of China’s pension insurance system on the consumption structure in rural areas and its heterogeneity.This paper draws a conclusion at four levels.First,pension insurance effectively optimizes the consumption structure in rural areas,increases the current overall consumption level by 0.0024 percent,and objectively releases the consumption potential in rural areas.Second,participation in pension insurance enhances the overall consumption level of rural families in eastern China,central China,and northeastern China by 0.08 percent,0.146 percent,and 0.0446 percent respectively,yet,that inhibits the overall consumption level of rural families in rural areas in western China by 0.1057 percent.Third,from eastern China to western China,with regard to pension insurance,as its impact on consumption shifts from a higher level to a lower level,its impact on the optimization of consumption structures sinks to a lower level.Fourth,in terms of major factors,age(older),matrimonial res(married),years of education(longer),health(poor),and the number of family members(small)contribute to the stronger willingness to participate in pension insurance.

Effect of Rural Social Pension Insurance on Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

Based on data of 31 provinces of China in 2019 collected from the National Bureau of Statistics,this paper explores the impact of the number of urban employees’endowment insurance on the total retail sales of social consumer goods in different provinces in China.Taking the population,per capita disposable income,per capita life expectancy,and regional per capita GDP of each province as the variables,this paper establishes regression models to do the empirical research.The results show that:(1)The increase of the number of urban employees’old-age insurance has a significant positive impact on residents’consumption.The wider the coverage of old-age insurance,the more it can enhance the consumption confidence of the residents.(2)Due to the economic development,the level of urbanization has been greatly improved,leading to an increased birth rate and total population,and thus consumption has been driven.Therefore,the increase of the total population has a significant positive effect on the increase of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.(3)The increase of per capita disposable income has insignificant impact on the increase of total retail sales of social consumer goods due to residents’debt,the rise of house prices,the rapid widening of income gap between different groups,and the difficulty of meeting the various needs of people.(4)Although the increase of life expectancy per capita will lead to the decrease of total retail sales of social consumer goods,this decrease is not significant.(5)Per capita GDP will lead to a small increase in the total retail sales of social consumption.Finally,based on the above conclusions,some suggestions to stimulate consumption are given.

Research on Pension Insurance System under the Background of Aging

With the rapid development of economy in our country, the level of science and technology innovation, all of these prolong the life span of our life. Thus an aging population are increasingly highlight, which are deeply and widely influenced our society, economy, life and other aspects. As the basic insurance which maintain the elderly＇s life quality after they retired, Pension insurance will promove social stability and development. How to reform Pension insurance under the background of the aging of the population will get more and more attention from people. This article starts with the concept of the aging of the population and its development trend. Next, the article analyses the problems of Pension Insurance under the background of the aging of the population. Last, the article summarizes countermeasures according to solve these matters.

Strengthening Understanding And Learning from Each Other─Highlights on the “Seminar on Pension Administration，Social Security and Insurance”

ＳｔｒｅｎｇｔｈｅｎｉｎｇＵｎｄｅｒｓｔａｎｄｉｎｇＡｎｄＬｅａｒｎｉｎｇｆｒｏｍＥａｃｈＯｔｈｅｒ─Ｈｉｇｈｌｉｇｈｔｓｏｎｔｈｅ“ＳｅｍｉｎａｒｏｎＰｅｎｓｉｏｎＡｄｍｉｎｉｓｔｒａｔｉｏｎ，ＳｏｃｉａｌＳｅｃｕｒｉｔｙａｎｄＩｎｓｕｒａｎｃｅ”...

Study on Path to Alleviate Fiscal Pressure from Pension Insurance Fund:Background to the Implementation of the National Pooling System Based on Inter-Regional Fund Surplus and Deficit Adjustment

In January 2022,China introduced a national pooling system for pension insurance fund,With the objective of inter-regional fund surplus and deficit adjustment.With the ongoing trend of population aging,can the national pooling and adjustment system operate sustainably?What level of fiscal obligations does it entail?This is related to the long-term stability of pension insurance fund and the whole social security system.This paper employs econometric and actuarial models to assess the sustainability of the national pooling and adjustment system under five scenarios:(1)not introducing any policy interventions;(2)implementing parameter reforms such as expanding pension insurance coverage,progressively extending retirement age,and enhancing collection rates;(3)transferring state-owned capital from central state-owned enterprises to strengthen the social security fund;(4)transitioning the national pooling and adjustment system from turning over current surplus to accumulated surplus;and(5)implementing all parameter reforms,transferring state-owned capital,and turning over accumulated surpluses.The results suggest that a coordinated implementation of reform measures like pension insurance parameter adjustments,reallocation of state-owned capital to enhance social security funds,and leveraging the national pooling and adjustment system for turning over accumulated surplus can ensure the sustainability of the system and significantly alleviatefiscalpressures.

Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?

To analyze the efect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China's urban employee basic pension insurance fund(CUEBPIF),this study develops an actuarial model for pension insurance.The results reveal the following:(i)Without policy intervention,the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall of RMB207.44 trillion by 2050,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050.(i)Based on a delayed retirement policy,the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years,and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by I1.77 percentage points.(ii)The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.

养老保险省级统筹对养老保险基金平衡的影响研究

提高基本养老保险统筹层次是增强养老金支付能力的重要改革举措,也是实现养老金制度安全规范发展的关键。文章基于养老保险省级统筹改革的准自然实验,利用2008-2019年中国A股上市公司数据,构建双重差分模型实证评估了养老保险统筹改革对企业实际缴费率及基本养老保险基金平衡的影响。研究发现:省级统筹显著降低了企业养老保险实际缴费率,该结果在更改变量度量方式、排除竞争性解释、考虑异质性处理效应等一系列稳健性检验中仍然成立。养老保险省级统筹在不同征管模式、企业类型及地区层面对企业养老保险实际缴费率存在异质性影响,对于社保征收和税务代征模式、劳动密集度高的企业、所在地区老龄化程度低和财政压力小的企业影响更明显。机制分析发现,市县政府由于“相对剥夺效应”和“逐底竞争效应”所产生的征管强度不足是造成省级统筹改革后企业缴费率下降的重要因素。进一步分析表明,省级统筹改革降低了基金收支平衡,并对中西部省份影响更明显。研究对于加强地方政府征管治理、促进养老保险基金平衡发展具有重要启示,为征管主体间利益关系的平衡及养老保险全国统筹的顺利推进提供了经验证据。

个人养老金:政策认知与居民参与行为

个人养老金制度在我国已试点实施一年,研究居民的参与行为有助于推动该制度的全面实施。本文基于对西安市1475位居民的问卷调查,探讨了政策认知对居民参与个人养老金行为的影响。研究发现,政策认知对居民参与个人养老金的行为有重要的影响,居民对个人养老金相关政策规定越了解,越可能开立个人养老金账户,这一结果具有稳健性。异质性分析显示,对个人养老金相关政策规定的了解更能促使女性、身体健康状况较好以及参加城乡居民基本养老保险的居民做出开立个人养老金账户的行为决策。机制分析表明,居民对个人养老金相关政策规定越了解,其对个人养老金的福利效应就越认可,对这一制度也越信任,从而越可能参与个人养老金。

优化我国养老金制度体系:个人养老金制度的发展定位

我国已初步建成了第三支柱个人养老金制度,但该制度尚未实现规模化发展。分析现行养老金制度体系面临的现实困境后发现诸多问题,如第一支柱可持续性面临挑战,第二支柱发挥的作用有限,养老资产规模不足等。个人养老金制度对于优化我国养老金体系具有关键作用。据此,明确个人养老金制度的发展定位,包括完善三支柱养老保障体系、提高基本养老保险待遇水平、增加养老金资产储备、强化个人养老储备意识。提出政府应该协调发展三支柱养老保险,实施税收激励政策并加强宣传教育以激励个人的有效参与,优化养老资产储备的投资管理的相关建议。

我国养老产业发展“拐点”研判——基于多案例研究的典型事实

随着人口老龄化进程加速,我国的养老需求结构正在从生存型向发展型转变,这将为养老产业的发展带来广阔的市场空间,但当前我国养老产业发展相对滞后,仍面临严重的发展困境。我国养老产业发展的“拐点”何时到来?为回答好这个问题,本文以案例研究和实证分析相结合的研究框架,首先,以法、德、日、美四国为例,系统梳理其养老产业发展历程,总结归纳出养老产业发展“拐点”出现的共性特征;其次,聚焦日本养老产业发展轨迹,重点关注其介护险实施前后养老产业相关重要指标变化;最后,选取九个养老产业相关指标,基于指数平滑、灰色模型等方法对中国养老产业未来情况进行预测,并与日本可比时期指标情况进行比较,判断中国养老产业“拐点”出现的可能时间。研究发现:养老产业发展“拐点”的出现具有四个共性特征,分别是三支柱养老金体系改革、长护险制度全面实施、多元化服务助推医养结合、代际转换背后的产业增量机会,而中国养老产业发展“拐点”可能出现的窗口期将在2026—2030年间。

目标群体异质性影响政策遵从的双重机制研究——以企业养老保险缴费所有制差异为例

相同政策下目标群体为何存在遵从差异?基于政策反馈理论,本文提出目标群体异质性影响政策遵从的双重机制:解释效应,政策认知在异质性目标群体之间存在差异,影响遵从意愿;资源效应,政策导致的资源变化在异质性目标群体中分配不均衡,影响遵从能力;二者的大小和方向共同决定遵从程度。以2008—2015年A股上市公司为样本,实证检验所有制影响两类企业养老保险政策遵从的机制。结果发现:(1)目标群体异质性通过解释效应和资源效应显著影响政策遵从;(2)解释效应可以与资源效应作用相反,且超过资源效应;(3)政策性质影响解释效应和资源效应。