A Blind Spot in the Reframing of a Universe of Possibles: Towards a Suitable Model for Decision-Making Theory and A.I.

Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.

Evolutionary Decision-Making and Planning for Autonomous Driving Based on Safe and Rational Exploration and Exploitation

Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning framework for autonomous driving based on a hybrid data-and model-driven method.First,a data-driven decision-making module based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL)is developed to pursue a rational driving performance as much as possible.Then,model predictive control(MPC)is employed to execute both longitudinal and lateral motion planning tasks.Multiple constraints are defined according to the vehicle’s physical limit to meet the driving task requirements.Finally,two principles of safety and rationality for the self-evolution of autonomous driving are proposed.A motion envelope is established and embedded into a rational exploration and exploitation scheme,which filters out unreasonable experiences by masking unsafe actions so as to collect high-quality training data for the DRL agent.Experiments with a high-fidelity vehicle model and MATLAB/Simulink co-simulation environment are conducted,and the results show that the proposed online-evolution framework is able to generate safer,more rational,and more efficient driving action in a real-world environment.

A modified back analysis method for deep excavation with multi-objective optimization procedure

Real-time prediction of excavation-induced displacement of retaining pile during the deep excavation process is crucial for construction safety.This paper proposes a modified back analysis method with multi-objective optimization procedure,which enables a real-time prediction of horizontal displacement of retaining pile during construction.As opposed to the traditional stage-by-stage back analysis,time series monitoring data till the current excavation stage are utilized to form a multi-objective function.Then,the multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm is applied for parameter identification.The optimized model parameters are immediately adopted to predict the excavation-induced pile deformation in the continuous construction stages.To achieve efficient parameter optimization and real-time prediction of system behavior,the back propagation neural network (BPNN) is established to substitute the finite element model,which is further implemented together with MOPSO for automatic operation.The proposed approach is applied in the Taihu tunnel excavation project,where the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated via the comparisons with the site monitoring data.The method is reliable with a prediction accuracy of more than 90%.Moreover,different optimization algorithms,including non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II),Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm II (PESA-II) and MOPSO,are compared,and their influences on the prediction accuracy at different excavation stages are studied.The results show that MOPSO has the best performance for high dimensional optimization task.

Multi-objective optimization and evaluation of supercritical CO_(2) Brayton cycle for nuclear power generation

The supercritical CO_(2) Brayton cycle is considered a promising energy conversion system for Generation IV reactors for its simple layout,compact structure,and high cycle efficiency.Mathematical models of four Brayton cycle layouts are developed in this study for different reactors to reduce the cost and increase the thermohydraulic performance of nuclear power generation to promote the commercialization of nuclear energy.Parametric analysis,multi-objective optimizations,and four decision-making methods are applied to obtain each Brayton scheme’s optimal thermohydraulic and economic indexes.Results show that for the same design thermal power scale of reactors,the higher the core’s exit temperature,the better the Brayton cycle’s thermo-economic performance.Among the four-cycle layouts,the recompression cycle(RC)has the best overall performance,followed by the simple recuperation cycle(SR)and the intercooling cycle(IC),and the worst is the reheating cycle(RH).However,RH has the lowest total cost of investment(C_(tot))of$1619.85 million,and IC has the lowest levelized cost of energy(LCOE)of 0.012$/(kWh).The nuclear Brayton cycle system’s overall performance has been improved due to optimization.The performance of the molten salt reactor combined with the intercooling cycle(MSR-IC)scheme has the greatest improvement,with the net output power(W_(net)),thermal efficiencyη_(t),and exergy efficiency(η_(e))improved by 8.58%,8.58%,and 11.21%,respectively.The performance of the lead-cooled fast reactor combined with the simple recuperation cycle scheme was optimized to increase C_(tot) by 27.78%.In comparison,the internal rate of return(IRR)increased by only 7.8%,which is not friendly to investors with limited funds.For the nuclear Brayton cycle,the molten salt reactor combined with the recompression cycle scheme should receive priority,and the gas-cooled fast reactor combined with the reheating cycle scheme should be considered carefully.

Multi-Objective Optimization of Aluminum Alloy Electric Bus Frame Connectors for Enhanced Durability

The widespread adoption of aluminumalloy electric buses,known for their energy efficiency and eco-friendliness,faces a challenge due to the aluminum frame’s susceptibility to deformation compared to steel.This issue is further exacerbated by the stringent requirements imposed by the flammability and explosiveness of batteries,necessitating robust frame protection.Our study aims to optimize the connectors of aluminum alloy bus frames,emphasizing durability,energy efficiency,and safety.This research delves into Multi-Objective Coordinated Optimization(MCO)techniques for lightweight design in aluminum alloy bus body connectors.Our goal is to enhance lightweighting,reinforce energy absorption,and improve deformation resistance in connector components.Three typical aluminum alloy connectors were selected and a design optimization platform was built for their MCO using a variety of software and methods.Firstly,through three-point bending experiments and finite element analysis on three types of connector components,we identified optimized design parameters based on deformation patterns.Then,employing Optimal Latin hypercube design(OLHD),parametric modeling,and neural network approximation,we developed high-precision approximate models for the design parameters of each connector component,targeting energy absorption,mass,and logarithmic strain.Lastly,utilizing the Archive-based Micro Genetic Algorithm(AMGA),Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization(MOPSO),and Non-dominated SortingGenetic Algorithm(NSGA2),we explored optimized design solutions for these joint components.Subsequently,we simulated joint assembly buckling during bus rollover crash scenarios to verify and analyze the optimized solutions in three-point bending simulations.Each joint component showcased a remarkable 30%–40%mass reduction while boosting energy absorption.Our design optimization method exhibits high efficiency and costeffectiveness.Leveraging contemporary automation technology,the design optimization platform developed in this study is poised to facilitate intelligent optimization of lightweight metal components in future applications.

Review of multi-objective optimization in long-term energy system models

Modeling and optimizing long-term energy systems can provide solutions to various energy and environmental policies involving public-interest issues.The conventional optimization of long-term energy system models focuses on a single economic goal.However,the increasingly complex demands of energy systems necessitate the comprehensive consideration of multiple dimensional objectives,such as environmental,social,and energy security.Therefore,a multi-objective optimization of long-term energy system models has been developed.Herein,studies pertaining to the multi-objective optimization of long-term energy system models are summarized;the optimization objectives of long-term energy system models are classified into economic,environmental,social,and energy security aspects;and the multi-objective optimization methods are classified and explained based on the preferential expression of decision makers.Finally,the key development direction of the multi-objective optimization of energy system models is discussed.

Consensus model of social network group decision-making based on trust relationship among experts and expert reliability

Due to people’s increasing dependence on social networks,it is essential to develop a consensus model considering not only their own factors but also the interaction between people.Both external trust relationship among experts and the internal reliability of experts are important factors in decision-making.This paper focuses on improving the scientificity and effectiveness of decision-making and presents a consensus model combining trust relationship among experts and expert reliability in social network group decision-making(SN-GDM).A concept named matching degree is proposed to measure expert reliability.Meanwhile,linguistic information is applied to manage the imprecise and vague information.Matching degree is expressed by a 2-tuple linguistic model,and experts’preferences are measured by a probabilistic linguistic term set(PLTS).Subsequently,a hybrid weight is explored to weigh experts’importance in a group.Then a consensus measure is introduced and a feedback mechanism is developed to produce some personalized recommendations with higher group consensus.Finally,a comparative example is provided to prove the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed consensus model.

A multi-objective decision-making method for the treatment scheme of landslide hazard

The treatment engineering of landslide hazard is a complicated systemengineering. The selecting treatment scheme is influenced by many factors such as technology,economics, environment, and risk. The decision-making of treatment schemes of landslide hazard is aproblem of comprehensive judgment with multi-hierarchy and multi-objective. The traditional analysishierarchy process needs identity test. The traditional analysis hierarchy process is improved bymeans of optimal transfer matrix here. An improved hierarchy decision-making model for the treatmentof landslide hazard is set up. The judgment matrix obtained by the method can naturally meet therequirement of identity, so the identity test is not necessary. At last, the method is applied tothe treatment decision-making of the dangerous rock mass at the Slate Mountain, and its applicationis discussed in detail.

Improved Fuzzification Method for Multi-Objective Decision-Making and Its Application in Evaluation of Highway Planning

A new fuzzification method for multi-objective decision-making and selective sorting is proposed on the basis of the fuzzy consistent relation, and the specific algorithm is presented. The method is applied to the evaluation of highway planning of Zhanjiang city. To decrease the subjectivity in the process of decision-making, the LOWA operator is introduced, and a discussion on how to select appropriate weights involved in multi-objective sorting is made. It is concluded that it is feasible to apply the fuzzy consistent relation to multi-objective decision-making analysis, and the improved fuzzication method is workable.

A Decision-Making Framework Model of Cutting Fluid Selection for Green Manufacturing and the Case Study

Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc esses. During the machining process, cutting fluid is one of the main roots of e nvironmental pollution. And how to make an optimal selection for cutting fluid f or GM is an important path to reduce the environmental pollution. The objective factors of decision-making problems in the traditional selection of cutting flu id are usually two: quality and cost. But from the viewpoint of GM, environmenta l impact (E) should be considered together. In this paper, a multi-object d ecision-making model of cutting fluid selection for GM is put forward, in which the objects of Quality (Q), Cost(C) and Environmental impact (E) are considered together. In this model, E means to minimize the environmental impact, Q means to maximize the quality and C means to minimize the cost. Each objective is anal yzed in detail too. A case study on a decision-making problem of cutting fluid selection in a gear hobbing process is analyzed, and the result shows the model is practical.

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

COLLISION AVOIDANCE DECISION-MAKING MODEL OF MULTI-AGENTS IN VIRTUAL DRIVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Collision avoidance decision-making models of multiple agents in virtual driving environment are studied. Based on the behavioral characteristics and hierarchical structure of the collision avoidance decision-making in real life driving, delphi approach and mathematical statistics method are introduced to construct pair-wise comparison judgment matrix of collision avoidance decision choices to each collision situation. Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is adopted to establish the agents＇ collision avoidance decision-making model. To simulate drivers＇ characteristics, driver factors are added to categorize driving modes into impatient mode, normal mode, and the cautious mode. The results show that this model can simulate human＇s thinking process, and the agents in the virtual environment can deal with collision situations and make decisions to avoid collisions without intervention. The model can also reflect diversity and uncertainly of real life driving behaviors, and solves the multi-objective, multi-choice ranking priority problem in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. This collision avoidance model of multi-agents model is feasible and effective, and can provide richer and closer-to-life virtual scene for driving simulator, reflecting real-life traffic environment more truly, this model can also promote the practicality of driving simulator.

Integrated Building Envelope Design Process Combining Parametric Modelling and Multi-Objective Optimization

As an important element in sustainable building design, the building envelope has been witnessing a constant shift in the design approach. Integrating multi-objective optimization(MOO) into the building envelope design process is very promising, but not easy to realize in an actual project due to several factors, including the complexity of optimization model construction, lack of a dynamic-visualization capacity in the simulation tools and consideration of how to match the optimization with the actual design process. To overcome these difficulties, this study constructed an integrated building envelope design process(IBEDP) based on parametric modelling, which was implemented using Grasshopper platform and interfaces to control the simulation software and optimization algorithm. A railway station was selected as a case study for applying the proposed IBEDP, which also utilized a grid-based variable design approach to achieve flexible optimum fenestrations. To facilitate the stepwise design process, a novel strategy was proposed with a two-step optimization, which optimized various categories of variables separately. Compared with a one-step optimization,though the proposed strategy performed poorly in the diversity of solutions, the quantitative assessment of the qualities of Pareto-optimum solution sets illustrates that it is superior.

Research Progress of Aerodynamic Multi-Objective Optimization on High-Speed Train Nose Shape

The aerodynamic optimization design of high-speed trains(HSTs)is crucial for energy conservation,environmental preservation,operational safety,and speeding up.This study aims to review the current state and progress of the aerodynamic multi-objective optimization of HSTs.First,the study explores the impact of train nose shape parameters on aerodynamic performance.The parameterization methods involved in the aerodynamic multiobjective optimization ofHSTs are summarized and classified as shape-based and disturbance-based parameterizationmethods.Meanwhile,the advantages and limitations of each parameterizationmethod,aswell as the applicable scope,are briefly discussed.In addition,the NSGA-II algorithm,particle swarm optimization algorithm,standard genetic algorithm,and other commonly used multi-objective optimization algorithms and the improvements in the field of aerodynamic optimization for HSTs are summarized.Second,this study investigates the aerodynamic multi-objective optimization technology for HSTs using the surrogate model,focusing on the Kriging surrogate models,neural network,and support vector regression.Moreover,the construction methods of surrogate models are summarized,and the influence of different sample infill criteria on the efficiency ofmulti-objective optimization is analyzed.Meanwhile,advanced aerodynamic optimization methods in the field of aircraft have been briefly introduced to guide research on the aerodynamic optimization of HSTs.Finally,based on the summary of the research progress of the aerodynamicmulti-objective optimization ofHSTs,future research directions are proposed,such as intelligent recognition technology of characteristic parameters,collaborative optimization of multiple operating environments,and sample infill criterion of the surrogate model.

Shared Decision-Making after Implementation of the Chronic Care Model (CCM)—An Evaluative Approach

Background: In paternalistic models, healthcare providers’ responsibility is to decide what is best for patients. The main concern is that such models fail to respect patient autonomy and do not promote patient responsibility. Aim: To evaluate mental healthcare team members’ perceptions of their own role in encouraging elderly persons to participate in shared decision-making after implementation of the CCM. The CCM is not an explanatory theory, but an evidence-based guideline and synthesis of best available evidence. Methods: Data were collected from two teams that took part in a focus group interview, and the transcript was analysed by means of qualitative thematic analysis. Results: One overall theme emerged—Preventing the violation of human dignity based on three themes, namely, Changing understanding and attitudes, Increasing depressed elderly persons’ autonomy and Clarifying the mental healthcare team coordinator’s role and responsibility. The results of this study reveal that until recently, paternalism has been the dominant decision-making model within healthcare, without any apparent consideration of the patient perspective. Community mental healthcare can be improved by shared decision-making in which team members initiate a dialogue focusing on patient participation to prevent the violation of human dignity. However, in order to determine how best to empower the patient, team members need expert knowledge and intuition.

A New Definition and Calculation Model for Evolutionary Multi-Objective Optimization

We present a new definition (Evolving Solutions) for Multi-objective Optimization Problem (MOP) to answer the basic question (what's multi-objective optimal solution?) and advance an asynchronous evolutionary model (MINT Model) to solve MOPs. The new theory is based on our understanding of the natural evolution and the analysis of the difference between natural evolution and MOP, thus it is not only different from the Converting Optimization but also different from Pareto Optimization. Some tests prove that our new theory may conquer disadvantages of the upper two methods to some extent.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Multi-objective linear fractional inventory model with possibility and necessity constraints under generalised intuitionistic fuzzy set environment

This study presented a multi-objective linear fractional inventory (LFI) problem with generalised intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. In modelling, the authors have assumed the ambiances where generalised trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (GTIFNs) used to handle the uncertain information in the data. Then, the given multi-objective generalised intuitionistic fuzzy LFI model was transformed into its equivalent deterministic linear fractional programming problem by employing the possibility and necessity measures. Finally, the applicability of the model is demonstrated with a numerical example and the sensitivity analysis under several parameters is investigated to explore the study.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.