Multistate transition and coupled solid-liquid modeling of motion process of long-runout landslide

The recognition,repetition and prediction of the post-failure motion process of long-runout landslides are key scientific problems in the prevention and mitigation of geological disasters.In this study,a new numerical method involving LPF3D based on a multialgorithm and multiconstitutive model was proposed to simulate long-runout landslides with high precision and efficiency.The following results were obtained:(a)The motion process of landslides showed a steric effect with mobility,including gradual disintegration and spreading.The sliding mass can be divided into three states(dense,dilute and ultradilute)in the motion process,which can be solved by three dynamic regimes(friction,collision,and inertial);(b)Coupling simulation between the solid grain and liquid phases was achieved,focusing on drag force influences;(c)Different algorithms and constitutive models were employed in phase-state simulations.The volume fraction is an important indicator to distinguish different state types and solid‒liquid ratios.The flume experimental results were favorably validated against long-runout landslide case data;and(d)In this method,matched dynamic numerical modeling was developed to better capture the realistic motion process of long-runout landslides,and the advantages of continuum media and discrete media were combined to improve the computational accuracy and efficiency.This new method can reflect the realistic physical and mechanical processes in long-runout landslide motion and provide a suitable method for risk assessment and pre-failure prediction.

Control method based on DRFNN sliding mode for multifunctional flexible multistate switch

To address the low accuracy and stability when applying classical control theory in distribution networks with distributed generation,a control method involving flexible multistate switches(FMSs)is proposed in this study.This approach is based on an improved double-loop recursive fuzzy neural network(DRFNN)sliding mode,which is intended to stably achieve multiterminal power interaction and adaptive arc suppression for single-phase ground faults.First,an improved DRFNN sliding mode control(SMC)method is proposed to overcome the chattering and transient overshoot inherent in the classical SMC and reduce the reliance on a precise mathematical model of the control system.To improve the robustness of the system,an adaptive parameter-adjustment strategy for the DRFNN is designed,where its dynamic mapping capabilities are leveraged to improve the transient compensation control.Additionally,a quasi-continuous second-order sliding mode controller with a calculus-driven sliding mode surface is developed to improve the current monitoring accuracy and enhance the system stability.The stability of the proposed method and the convergence of the network parameters are verified using the Lyapunov theorem.A simulation model of the three-port FMS with its control system is constructed in MATLAB/Simulink.The simulation result confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy based on a comparative analysis.

Probability Prediction in Multistate Survival Models for Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia

In order to find an appropriate model suitable for a multistate survival experiment, 634 patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) were selected to illustrate the method of analysis. After transplantation, there were 4 possible situations for a patient: disease free, relapse but still alive, death before relapse, and death after relapse. The last 3 events were considered as treatment failure. The results showed that the risk of death before relapse was higher than that of the relapse, especially in the first year after transplantation with competing-risk method. The result of patients with relapse time less than 12 months was much poor by the Kaplan-Meier method. And the multistate survival models were developed, which were detailed and informative based on the analysis of competing risks and Kaplan-Meier analysis. With the multistate survival models, a further analysis on conditional probability was made for patients who were disease free and still alive at month 12 after transplantation. It was concluded that it was possible for an individual patient to predict the 4 possible probabilities at any time. Also the prognoses for relapse either death or not and death either before or after relapse may be given. Furthermore, the conditional probabilities for patients who were disease free and still alive in a given time after transplantation can be predicted.

Nonlinear signal transduction network with multistate

Signal transduction is an important and basic mechanism to cell life activities.The stochastic state transition of receptor induces the release of signaling molecular,which triggers the state transition of other receptors.It constructs a nonlinear sigaling network,and leads to robust switchlike properties which are critical to biological function.Network architectures and state transitions of receptor affect the performance of this biological network.In this work,we perform a study of nonlinear signaling on biological polymorphic network by analyzing network dynamics of the Ca^(2+)-induced Ca^(2+)release(CICR)mechanism,where fast and slow processes are involved and the receptor has four conformational states.Three types of networks,Erdos–R´enyi(ER)network,Watts–Strogatz(WS)network,and BaraB´asi–Albert(BA)network,are considered with different parameters.The dynamics of the biological networks exhibit different patterns at different time scales.At short time scale,the second open state is essential to reproduce the quasi-bistable regime,which emerges at a critical strength of connection for all three states involved in the fast processes and disappears at another critical point.The pattern at short time scale is not sensitive to the network architecture.At long time scale,only monostable regime is observed,and difference of network architectures affects the results more seriously.Our finding identifies features of nonlinear signaling networks with multistate that may underlie their biological function.

Determination of Scheduled Travel Time for a Fixed Transit Route Based on Multistate Model

In order to provide the guideline for bus drivers to adjust speed to minimize scheduled deviation,the method for setting bus scheduled travel time is proposed. Firstly,multistate model is introduced to fit historical travel time data and identify different service states. Based on the calibrated travel time distribution parameters,an optimization model is proposed,followed by a Monte Carlo( MC) simulation based genetic algorithm( GA)procedure to obtain the optimal scheduled time. A case study from a fixed bus route from Shenzhen is used to demonstrate the model applicability. The sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effects of parameters setting on optimal slack time for each segment. The results show that multistate model fits travel time under peak hours better than Lognormal distribution,and the length of scheduled travel time basically reflects travel time reliability.

Search for d-MPs without duplicates in two-terminal multistate networks based on MPs

The reliability evaluation of a multistate network is primarily based on d-minimal paths/cuts(d-MPs/d-MCs).However,being a nondeterminism polynomial hard(NP-hard)problem,searching for all d-MPs is a rather challenging task.In existing implicit enumeration algorithms based on minimal paths(MPs),duplicate d-MP candidates may be generated.An extra step is needed to locate and remove these duplicate d-MP candidates,which costs significant computational effort.This paper proposes an efficient method to prevent the generation of duplicate d-MP candidates for implicit enumeration algorithms for d-MPs.First,the mechanism of generating duplicate d-MP candidates in the implicit enumeration algorithms is discussed.Second,a direct and efficient avoiding-duplicates method is proposed.Third,an improved algorithm is developed,followed by complexity analysis and illustrative examples.Based on the computational experiments comparing with two existing algorithms,it is found that the proposed method can significantly improve the efficiency of generating d-MPs for a particular demand level d.

Minimization of the Expected Total Net Loss in a Stationary Multistate Flow Network System

In the present paper, a three-component, stationary, multistate flow network system is studied. Detailed costs and incomes are specified. The aim is to minimize the expected total net loss with respect to the expected times the components spend in each state. This represents a novelty in that we connect the expected component times spent in each state to the minimal total net loss of the system, without first finding the component importance. This is of interest in the design phase where one may tune the components to minimize the expected total net loss. Due to the complex nature of the problem, we first study a simplified version. There the expected times spent in each state are assumed equal for each component. Then a modified version of the full model is presented. The optimization in this model is completed in two steps. First the optimization is carried out for a set of pre-chosen fixed expected life cycle lengths. Then the overall minimum is identified by varying these expectations. Both the simplified and the modified optimization problems are nonlinear. The setup used in this article is such that it can easily be modified to represent other flow network systems and cost functions. The challenge lies in the optimization of real life systems.

Optimization of Critical Systems for Robustness in a Multistate World

Critical systems are typically complex systems that are required to perform reliably over a wide range of scenarios, or multistate world. Seldom does a single system exist that performs best for all plausible scenarios. A robust solution, one that performs relatively well over a wide range of scenarios, is often the preferred choice for reduced risk at an acceptable cost. The alternative with the maximum expected utility may possess vulnerabilities that could be exploited. The best strategy is likely to be a hybrid solution. The von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory (EUT) would never select such a solution because, given its linear functional form, the expected utility of a hybrid solution cannot be greater than that of every constituent alternative. The continuity axiom and the independence axiom are assessed to be unrealistic for the problem of interest. Several well-known decision models are analyzed and demonstrated to be potentially misleading. The linear disappointment model modifies EUT by adding a term proportional to downside risk;however, it does not provide a mathematical basis for determining preferred hybrid solutions. The paper proposes a portfolio allocation model with stochastic optimization as a flexible and transparent method for defining choice problems and determining hybrid solutions for critical systems with desirable properties such as diversification and robustness.

Reproducible and low-power multistate bio-memristor from interpenetrating network electrolyte design

Bio-memristor can address the inherent limitations of conventional memory components in artificial perceptual systems due to their biocompatibility with biological tissue.The actual deployment of bio-memristor is restricted by the lack of reproducibility,high power consumption,and insufficient storage capacity.Here,a reproducible and low-power multistate biomemristor is developed by designing the chitosan(CS)-reduced graphene oxide(rGO)interpenetrating network electrolyte.The interpenetrating network structure of the CS-rGO electrolyte reinforces structural stability and improves ionic conductivity.The bio-memristor equipped with CS-rGO active layer shows stable bipolar resistive switching up to 100 consecutive cycles,reproducible multistate storage with six different memory states,and low programming power of 9.4μW.The fabricated biocompatible CS-rGO device also exhibits deformation stability of memory operation over 103 bending cycles,high biocompatibility with HEK293 cells,and skin adhesion.This work provides an enlightening design strategy to develop highperformance bio-memristors for applications in artificial perceptual systems.

Multistate Models for the Recovery Process in the Covid-19 Context:An Empirical Study of Chinese Enterprises

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected enterprises worldwide.It is thus of practical significance to study the process of enterprise recovery from Covid-19.However,the research on the effects of relevant determinants of business recovery is limited.This article presents a multistate modeling framework that considers the determinants,recovery time,and transition likelihood of Chinese enterprises by the state of those enterprises as a result of the pandemic(recovery state),with the help of an accelerated failure time model.Empirical data from 750 enterprises were used to evaluate the recovery process.The results indicate that the main problems facing non-manufacturing industries are supply shortages and order cancellations.With the increase of supplies and orders,the probability of transition between different recovery states gradually increases,and the recovery time of enterprises becomes shorter.For manufacturing industries,the factors that hinder recovery are more complex.The main problems are employee panic and order cancellations in the initial stage,employee shortages in the middle stage,and raw material shortages in the full recovery stage.This study can provide a reference for enterprise recovery in the current pandemic context and help policymakers and business managers take necessary measures to accelerate recovery.

Memristors-coupled neuron models with multiple firing patterns and homogeneous and heterogeneous multistability

Memristors are extensively used to estimate the external electromagnetic stimulation and synapses for neurons.In this paper,two distinct scenarios,i.e.,an ideal memristor serves as external electromagnetic stimulation and a locally active memristor serves as a synapse,are formulated to investigate the impact of a memristor on a two-dimensional Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model.Numerical simulations show that the neuronal models in different scenarios have multiple burst firing patterns.The introduction of the memristor makes the neuronal model exhibit complex dynamical behaviors.Finally,the simulation circuit and DSP hardware implementation results validate the physical mechanism,as well as the reliability of the biological neuron model.

A novel variable-order fractional chaotic map and its dynamics

In recent years,fractional-order chaotic maps have been paid more attention in publications because of the memory effect.This paper presents a novel variable-order fractional sine map(VFSM)based on the discrete fractional calculus.Specially,the order is defined as an iterative function that incorporates the current state of the system.By analyzing phase diagrams,time sequences,bifurcations,Lyapunov exponents and fuzzy entropy complexity,the dynamics of the proposed map are investigated comparing with the constant-order fractional sine map.The results reveal that the variable order has a good effect on improving the chaotic performance,and it enlarges the range of available parameter values as well as reduces non-chaotic windows.Multiple coexisting attractors also enrich the dynamics of VFSM and prove its sensitivity to initial values.Moreover,the sequence generated by the proposed map passes the statistical test for pseudorandom number and shows strong robustness to parameter estimation,which proves the potential applications in the field of information security.

Multiple mixed state variable incremental integration for reconstructing extreme multistability in a novel memristive hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearity

Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION ON FLOW AND HEAT TRANSFER CHARACTERISTICS IN TENON JOINT GAP BETWEEN TURBINE BLADE AND DISK

The now and heat transfer characteristics in tenon joint gap between turbine blade and disk have been investigated experimentally with a scale up model. The characteristics of flow and heat transfer in this speCial gap passage have been analyzed. The results are useful for beat transfer analysis in turbine design.

Evaluating Traffic Congestion Using the Traffic Occupancy and Speed Distribution Relationship: An Application of Bayesian Dirichlet Process Mixtures of Generalized Linear Model

Accurate classification and prediction of future traffic conditions are essential for developing effective strategies for congestion mitigation on the highway systems. Speed distribution is one of the traffic stream parameters, which has been used to quantify the traffic conditions. Previous studies have shown that multi-modal probability distribution of speeds gives excellent results when simultaneously evaluating congested and free-flow traffic conditions. However, most of these previous analytical studies do not incorporate the influencing factors in characterizing these conditions. This study evaluates the impact of traffic occupancy on the multi-state speed distribution using the Bayesian Dirichlet Process Mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DPM-GLM). Further, the study estimates the speed cut-point values of traffic states, which separate them into homogeneous groups using Bayesian change-point detection (BCD) technique. The study used 2015 archived one-year traffic data collected on Florida’s Interstate 295 freeway corridor. Information criteria results revealed three traffic states, which were identified as free-flow, transitional flow condition (congestion onset/offset), and the congested condition. The findings of the DPM-GLM indicated that in all estimated states, the traffic speed decreases when traffic occupancy increases. Comparison of the influence of traffic occupancy between traffic states showed that traffic occupancy has more impact on the free-flow and the congested state than on the transitional flow condition. With respect to estimating the threshold speed value, the results of the BCD model revealed promising findings in characterizing levels of traffic congestion.

New Characteristics of Active Life Expectancy of the Elderly in China

Life expectancy of the elderly is a significant problem in China, and it changes not only the health care, but also the pension. This study used tracking data from the Chinese Urban and Rural Elderly Population Survey to calculate the age-specific Active Life Expectancy (ALE) of the Chinese elderly population aged 60 years and over. For analysis, this population was divided into different sub-populations according to gender, census register and region. The main conclusions of our study are as follows: 1) The quality of life for elderly males may be greater than that for elderly females;2) There were significant differences in Active Life Expectancy (ALE) and Inactive Life Expectancy (ILE) between urban and rural elderly;3) The differences in ALE between the eastern, central and western regions of China were not significant;and 4) The increased remaining life expectancy of the elderly was mainly attributed to the extended ALE in the lower age group and the expanded ILE in the higher age group. This study expands the knowledge of Chinese elderly’s life expectancy in different health status.

Enhancements of SDR-Based FPGA System for V2X-VLC Communications

This pilot study focuses on a real measurements and enhancements of a software defined radio-based system for vehicle-to everything visible light communication(SDR-V2X-VLC).The presented system is based on a novel adaptive optimization of the feed-forward software defined equalization(FFSDE)methods of the least mean squares(LMS),normalized LMS(NLMS)and QR decomposition-based recursive least squares(QR-RLS)algorithms.Individual parameters of adaptive equalizations are adjusted in real-time to reach the best possible results.Experiments were carried out on a conventional LED Octavia III taillight drafted directly from production line and universal software radio peripherals(USRP)from National Instruments.The transmitting/receiving elements used multistate quadrature amplitude modulation(M-QAM)implemented in LabVIEW programming environment.Experimental results were verified based on bit error ratio(BER),error vector magnitude(EVM)and modulation error ratio(MER).Experimental results of the pilot study unambiguously confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed solution(longer effective communication range,higher immunity to interference,deployment of higher state QAM modulation formats,higher transmission speeds etc.),as the adaptive equalization significantly improved BER,MER and EVM parameters.The best results were achieved using the QR-RLS algorithm.The results measured on deployed QR-RLS algorithm had significantly better Eb/N0(improved by approx.20 dB)and BER values(difference by up to two orders of magnitude).

Covariates of Disability-Profile Transitions in Older People Living at Home

The objective of this study was to explore the relationship of sociodemographic, clinical, and health-services use-related variables with transitions between disability-based profiles. In a longitudinal study of 1386 people aged 75 and over living in the community at baseline, disabilities were assessed annually for up to four years with the Functional Autonomy Measurement System (SMAF), which generates 14 Iso-SMAF profiles. These profiles are grouped into 4 disability states, which are predominant alterations in instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), mobility, mental functions as well as severe and mixed disabilities. Continuous-time, multi-state Markov modeling was used to identify the factors associated with transitions made by older people between these states and to institutionalization and death. Greater age and receiving help for ADL were associated with four transitions, while altered cognitive functions and hospitalization were associated with three, all involving more decline or less recovery. From mild IADL profiles, men have a higher risk of transitioning to intermediate predominantly mental profiles, while women are at higher risk of transitioning to intermediate predominantly mobility profiles. Unmet needs are associated with deterioration, from mild IADL to intermediate predominantly mobility profiles. These results help understanding the complex progression of disabilities in older people.

Multistable Mechanical Metamaterials:A Brief Review

Over the past decade,multistable mechanical metamaterials have been widely investigated because of their novel shape reconfigurability and programmable energy landscape.The ability to reversibly reshape among diverse stable states with different energy levels represents the most important feature of the multistable mechanical metamaterials.We summarize main design strategies of multistable mechanical metamaterials,including those based on self-assembly scheme,snap-through instability,structured mechanism and geometrical frustration,with a focus on the number and controllability of accessible stable states.Then we concentrate on unusual mechanical properties of these multistable mechanical metamaterials,and present their applications in a wide range of areas,including tunable electromagnetic devices,actuators,robotics,and mechanical logic gates.Finally,we discuss remaining challenges and open opportunities of designs and applications of multistable mechanical metamaterials.

The design, manufacture and application of multistable mechanical metamaterials-a state-of-the-art review

Multistable mechanical metamaterials are a type of mechanical metamaterials with special features,such as reusability,energy storage and absorption capabilities,rapid deformation,and amplified output forces.These metamaterials are usually realized by series and/or parallel of bistable units.They can exhibit multiple stable configurations under external loads and can be switched reversely among each other,thereby realizing the reusability of mechanical metamaterials and offering broad engineering applications.This paper reviews the latest research progress in the design strategy,manufacture and application of multistable mechanical metamaterials.We divide bistable structures into three categories based on their basic element types and provide the criterion of their bistability.Various manufacturing techniques to fabricate these multistable mechanical metamaterials are introduced,including mold casting,cutting,folding and three-dimensional/4D printing.Furthermore,the prospects of multistable mechanical metamaterials for applications in soft driving,mechanical computing,energy absorption and wave controlling are discussed.Finally,this paper highlights possible challenges and opportunities for future investigations.The review aims to provide insights into the research and development of multistable mechanical metamaterials.