Objective Model Selection in Physics: Exploring the Finite Information Quantity Approach

Traditional methods for selecting models in experimental data analysis are susceptible to researcher bias, hindering exploration of alternative explanations and potentially leading to overfitting. The Finite Information Quantity (FIQ) approach offers a novel solution by acknowledging the inherent limitations in information processing capacity of physical systems. This framework facilitates the development of objective criteria for model selection (comparative uncertainty) and paves the way for a more comprehensive understanding of phenomena through exploring diverse explanations. This work presents a detailed comparison of the FIQ approach with ten established model selection methods, highlighting the advantages and limitations of each. We demonstrate the potential of FIQ to enhance the objectivity and robustness of scientific inquiry through three practical examples: selecting appropriate models for measuring fundamental constants, sound velocity, and underwater electrical discharges. Further research is warranted to explore the full applicability of FIQ across various scientific disciplines.

Quantity discount contracts for supply chain coordination under asymmetric information and disruptions

The quantity discount contracts are investigated for a one-supplier-one-retailer supply chain with asymmetric information when the retailer's cost is disrupted. While the retailer's cost structure is asymmetric information, two all-unit quantity discount contract models, fixed expected-profit percentage discount(FEPD) and fixed wholesale-pricing percentage discount(FWPD) under asymmetric information are proposed in a regular scenario. When the retailer's cost distribution fluctuates due to disruptions, the optimal emergency strategies of supply chains are obtained under asymmetric information. Using numerical methods, the impact of cost disruptions on decisions about the regular wholesale price, discount wholesale price, order quantity and expected profits of the retailer, the supplier as well as the total system are analyzed. It is found that the FEPD policy is more robust and adaptable than the FWPD policy in disruption circumstances.

Quantity Discount Scheme in Supply Chain under Asymmetric Information

Quantity discount scheme plays an important role in supply chain management. The different quantity discount schemes under symmetric （full） information and asymmetric information, are analyzed by using principal-agent and optimal control theory. As a result, the research reveals that the optimal quantity discount solution under symmetric information is a special case of that under asymmetric information. At the same price, the critical value of quantity discount under asymmetric information is much lower than that under asymmetric information. Therefore, this leads to less cost for retailers and smaller profit for their supplier.

ON INFORMATION THEORY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF DIFFERENT SUCCESS FAILURE MODEL UNITS

Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.

Unleashing the Power of Information Theory: Enhancing Accuracy in Modeling Physical Phenomena

When building a model of a physical phenomenon or process, scientists face an inevitable compromise between the simplicity of the model (qualitative-quantitative set of variables) and its accuracy. For hundreds of years, the visual simplicity of a law testified to the genius and depth of the physical thinking of the scientist who proposed it. Currently, the desire for a deeper physical understanding of the surrounding world and newly discovered physical phenomena motivates researchers to increase the number of variables considered in a model. This direction leads to an increased probability of choosing an inaccurate or even erroneous model. This study describes a method for estimating the limit of measurement accuracy, taking into account the stage of model building in terms of storage, transmission, processing and use of information by the observer. This limit, due to the finite amount of information stored in the model, allows you to select the optimal number of variables for the best reproduction of the observed object and calculate the exact values of the threshold discrepancy between the model and the phenomenon under study in measurement theory. We consider two examples: measurement of the speed of sound and measurement of physical constants.

Informational Noise＇s Entropy

Assessment of quantity of information that is present in own noises of EE （electronic elements）--informational noise＇s entropy--using spectrum distribution of noises＇ probability of real elements is proposed. It is shown that informational noise＇s entropy as opposed to used differential entropy of continuous signals defines the quantity of qualitative information related to the features of element＇s structure. Proposed quantitative assessment of information can be used for calculation of information contained in the own noises of other technical systems.

The Quantitative Instability of Non-linearity System and the Particularity of Information

The present paper tries to discuss the quantity instability in the non-linearity dynamics equations without the limit of the stability in the dynamics equations. The result shows that the quantity instability of non-linearity can be deducted to the turning transformation in the curvature space. “The dynamics of varying acceleration" is not the issue of inertia system in science of the time. The particularity as information cannot limit the quantity instability with the quantity stability in inertia system. The particular information does have the significant meaning related to the turning transformation in evolution, in which each problem of non-linearity or matter evolution can go out of the inertia system by means of “kill three birds with one stone".

Research on Construction of Bill of Quantities of Prefabricated Buildings Based on BIM

Building Information Model(BIM)Technology can be widely used in various construction fields.The construction quality and project cost of the prefabricated construction industry based on BIM can be effectively controlled.Based on BIM Technology,the integration of bill of quantities can effectively control the cost of prefabricated construction and improve competitiveness in the bidding process.Based on this,the characteristics and advantages of bill of quantities pricing based on BIM were expounded in this paper.Besides,the structure and content construction of bill of quantities were analyzed,followed by an analysis of pricing control strategy based on BIM were analyzed for assembly building quantities for reference.

企业ESG表现与融资约束——基于信息披露数量与质量的再讨论

在气候变化日益受到关注的背景下,实现企业发展与资本市场的良性互动,不仅可以有效满足企业发展的资金需求,也有助于我国经济高质量发展,实现双碳目标。本文在信号传递理论模型基础上,利用2010-2019年1136家上市公司数据,从理论和实证两个方面分析了企业ESG表现对融资约束的影响及其非对称性。研究发现,企业的ESG表现能够显著降低自身的融资约束。机制分析表明,ESG表现能够降低企业与投资者之间的信息不对称,且ESG信息披露数量和质量的作用存在不同,现阶段提升企业信息披露质量的效果会优于提升信息披露数量。同时,ESG表现对企业不同融资方式具有明显的非对称影响,在抑制内部融资的同时会缓解债务融资和股权融资,企业需要权衡长期利益与短期利益之间可能的冲突。本文为政府制定企业信息披露政策、引导社会责任投资提供了有益的实证证据和决策指导。

粮库储粮数量智能检测方法研究进展

储粮数量安全是国家粮食储备安全的重要内容,储粮库存数量检查是保障粮食数量安全的重要手段。传统储粮数量库存检查通常采用直接测量方法,存在耗时、费力、数据滞后、客观性差等不足。近年来,科研人员研究提出了一些智能化、自动化的粮食数量检测法,旨在以信息化技术实现国家粮食数量安全监测,进一步推进智慧粮库建设。围绕单点激光、激光雷达、超声波、压力传感器及视觉等技术,综述了这五种主流的仓内储粮数量智能化检测/监测方法,分析了检测精度和优缺点,展望了储粮数量检测技术未来研究方向。

数字消费与绿色创新驱动:增量与提质能否兼得?

数字消费是中国数字经济高质量发展的重要内容,也是打通国内国际双循环、促进数字技术与实体经济深度融合的重要载体。基于数字消费的“亲绿”特征,借助国家信息消费试点这一准自然实验,使用渐进双重差分方法检验数字消费驱动城市绿色创新的因果效应。研究发现:数字消费能够有力推动绿色创新增量提质,且该结论通过工具变量法、排除企业绿色创新投机行为、异质性处理效应等稳健性检验后依然成立,对比发现数字消费对绿色创新数量的驱动效应强于绿色创新质量。数字消费以消费结构转型升级引领供给端绿色技术进步,市场一体化进程加快有利于强化数字消费对绿色创新增量提质的促进效果;在探究影响政策实施效果的约束性因素时得出,培育数字化软硬实力、塑造良好创新生态环境是下一步扩大数字消费政策效应的应有之义;此外,数字消费还存在空间溢出特征,在国家中心城市的辐射作用下,数字消费驱动城市绿色创新发展的最优辐射空间距离为100~200km。

基于RSIV-RF模型的凉山州泥石流易发性评价

针对随机森林(RF)模型进行泥石流易发性评价过程中存在连续型因子依靠主观意识分级、随机选取的非泥石流样本准确度较低等问题,以位于四川西南部的凉山彝族自治州为研究区,提出基于统计学先验模型抽样的随机森林对研究区进行泥石流易发性评价分区。利用累计灾害频率等曲线的相对变化对连续型因子进行分级处理;采用粗糙集理论(RS)和信息量法(IV)计算加权信息量值,划定极低和低易发性区并从中选择负样本数据。通过袋外误差(OOB)变化曲线确定RF模型的最佳树棵数n_estimators和分裂特征数max_features,随后构建加权信息量-随机森林(RSIV-RF)模型预测凉山州泥石流易发性。进一步地,与从全区随机选择非泥石流样本的RF模型开展对比研究。结果表明,训练集和测试集下RSIV-RF模型的准确度分别为0.89,0.83,且对应的ROC曲线的AUC值分别为0.920,0.895,均高于单独的RF模型;RSIV-RF绘制的泥石流易发性评价图与历史灾害分布较为一致,较高和高易发性等级区域占研究区面积比为18.625%,包含了78.57%的泥石流点。性能评估和易发性统计结果均表明基于RSIV-RF能够解决单独模型存在的非泥石样本采样不准确的问题,其泥石流易发性预测精度更高,在凉山州地区泥石流易发性评价研究中具有较好的适应性。

基于信息量模型与确定性系数模型的曩宋河流域地质灾害易发性评价

云南省复杂的地质环境与大量的人类工程活动导致地质灾害频发,该区域的地质灾害识别与防治十分重要。本文以云南省梁河县曩宋河流域为研究区,选取高程、坡度、植被覆盖度、河流距离、工程岩组5个评价因子指标,基于确定性系数模型与信息量模型对流域内41处地质灾害区域进行分析并对研究区地质灾害进行易发性评价,利用ROC曲线对评价模型结果进行检验。结果表明,信息量模型检验得到的AUC值为0.804,确定性系数模型检验得到的AUC值为0.781,信息量模型更适用研究区的地质灾害易发性评价。研究结果可为云南省梁河县地质灾害防治工作提供参考。

渑池县地质灾害敏感因子分析及易发性评价

为有效评价不同孕灾因子对地质灾害发育的敏感性及易发性,以渑池县为实例背景,开展了地质灾害孕灾条件分析,通过确定系数法、信息量模型分别评价孕灾因子对地质灾害的敏感性及易发性。结果表明:县域内的孕灾因子相对较多,主要包括地貌因子、高程因子、坡度因子、地质构造因子及地层岩性因子;在敏感性分析方面,5类孕灾因子的敏感性存在较大差异,敏感性由高向低顺序为:高程因子>坡度因子>地质构造因子>地貌因子>地层岩性因子;在易发性分析方面,高易发区的分布面积比例为17.66%,中易发区的分布面积比例为30.53%,低易发区的分布面积比例为28.52%,非易发区的分布面积比例为23.29%。通过研究,可为该县灾害防治提供坚实的理论基础。

GIS支持下基于归一化信息量模型的地质灾害易发性评价

以沅陵县为研究区,对地质灾害的发育和分布特征进行定量化分析,基于控制因素与诱发因素,选取高程、坡向、坡度、剖面曲率、岩组、距断层的距离、距道路的距离、距河流的距离、年平均降雨量等9个因素作为评价指标,并利用线性函数转换的Min-Max归一化算法,将信息量模型(Information quantity model,I模型)得到的数据进行归一化处理;然后通过ROC曲线、灾积比对模型精度进行检验.结果表明:(1)信息量模型和归一化信息量模型的AUC值分别为0.730和0.784,归一化处理后的AUC值提高了5.4%;(2)极低易发区至极高易发区的面积分布差异显著,归一化处理后的模型在高易发和极高易发区面积上减少了428.51 km^(2).归一化处理后的信息量模型具有更高的精准度,研究成果将为该地区地质灾害防治工作提供一种有效的方法.

基于博弈论赋权信息量模型的滑坡易发性评价

针对利用信息量模型进行滑坡易发性区划时,直接将各影响因子的信息量相加或乘以单一权重相加,未同时考虑因子的主、客观权重的问题,提出基于博弈论赋权信息量模型的滑坡易发性评价方法。首先采用层次分析法(AHP)计算出主观权重,通过变异系数法确定客观权重,然后利用博弈论原理进行主、客观权重的优化组合,得到组合权重;基于组合权重对各评价因子的信息量图层进行加权求和,通过自然间断点法将评价结果分为5类。最后以陕西山阳县为研究区,分别从滑坡易发性区划图、分区点密度及ROC曲线,将所提模型与单一权重的信息量模型进行了对比。结果表明,所提方法的准确性、可靠性优于传统的加权信息量法。

公路工程量清单计价信息模型分类编码研究

目前国内公路工程量清单计价信息化的主流方式有三级清单、0#台账和识图算量3种方式,但是相关产品自动化程度不够完善,需要较多的人工干预,实际应用有较多的局限性。通过研究公路工程量清单计价信息模型分类编码规则,搭建编码与项目前后期造价及工程量元素映射通道,在此基础上实现计算机对各阶段造价自动转换、自动编制预算、将编码融入设计日常工作并自动提取信息等实际应用,从而实现“智能化造价”。

基于自主图形引擎技术的过程算量的探索和实践

工程算量是工程项目管理的基础,传统工程算量方式容易出现漏算、误算、重复算等问题,工作效率低、准确率低,导致工程项目管理困难。基于国产化图形引擎技术的过程算量方法,为项目基层人员算量提供了快速算量方法,通过该方法定义构件类并批量生成类实例对象快速生成BIM模型、快速精确算量,自动生成工程数量表、材料数量表、清单数量表等,为项目基层人员减负增效。

基于作战环的体系对抗仿真方法研究

在作战体系能力的建模与分析领域,传统的结构化能力评估模型缺乏对对抗双方以及体系中不同角色的部队之间相互作用的分析,而基于作战环理论的体系模型虽然可以结合传感、决策、影响、目标类节点间的关系进行体系能力计算,但通常只适用于静态分析,不能用于体系对抗的动态仿真。提出一种基于作战环的体系对抗仿真方法,将双方作战体系抽象为体系对抗网络模型,通过设定作战策略,抽取每个策略步骤将要实施的作战环。经过作战边的分解与调度算法生成作战边执行序列,再引入自信息量的概念逐个执行作战边,计算作战环的打击效能与毁伤效果,推动双方作战体系的演化。结合根据战略战役目的选取的收益函数求解收益,总结双方的胜负和作战损失。仿真结果表明:该方法能够依托策略和作战体系模拟对抗的过程并推导出对抗结果,具备用于体系对抗仿真的有效与可行性。

基于加权信息量模型的地质灾害易发性评价

湘乡市地质灾害频发,对该地区造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,基于研究区DEM、遥感等数据,利用了ArcGIS软件对湘乡市划分为10 m×10 m的栅格单元,选取了高程、坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、月平均降雨量等8个指标作为评价因子,通过主客观权重相结合的方法确定了各指标的权重,结合信息量模型计算出研究区各评价单元的信息量值,采用自然断点法将研究区划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区,AUC值为0.863,与历史发灾情况吻合,表明了该方法具有较好的评价效果,为后续的防灾减灾提供了理论依据。