China is switching from economic growth based on extremely rapid capital accumulation to economic growth based on structural reforms and accelerated total factor productivity growth. Meanwhile, China will also face a ...China is switching from economic growth based on extremely rapid capital accumulation to economic growth based on structural reforms and accelerated total factor productivity growth. Meanwhile, China will also face a serious excess saving problem as capital accumulation slows and, hence, needs to reduce its private saving rate. Based on this analysis, we estimated the economic impact of China＇s growth slowdown and hypothetical economic transformation on Japan, the USA and Germany using the worm input-output database. We compared the following three scenarios for China＇s final demand in 2020 and economic growth from 2015 to 2020： （i） an optimistic scenario （GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.501）; （ii） a slowdown scenario （GDP growth rate = 4%, investment/GDP = 0.501）; and （iii） a structural reform scenario （GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.3）. Our analysis suggests that Japan and Germany would suffer more from structural reforms in China than from a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, for the USA, the employment decline triggered by structural reforms wouM be much smaller than the employment decline caused by a slowdown in growth.展开更多
基金We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science （Grant No. 16H06322）, the Social Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 11AJY006） and the Key Project of Chinese Ministry of Education （Grant No. 12JJD790038）.
文摘China is switching from economic growth based on extremely rapid capital accumulation to economic growth based on structural reforms and accelerated total factor productivity growth. Meanwhile, China will also face a serious excess saving problem as capital accumulation slows and, hence, needs to reduce its private saving rate. Based on this analysis, we estimated the economic impact of China＇s growth slowdown and hypothetical economic transformation on Japan, the USA and Germany using the worm input-output database. We compared the following three scenarios for China＇s final demand in 2020 and economic growth from 2015 to 2020： （i） an optimistic scenario （GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.501）; （ii） a slowdown scenario （GDP growth rate = 4%, investment/GDP = 0.501）; and （iii） a structural reform scenario （GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.3）. Our analysis suggests that Japan and Germany would suffer more from structural reforms in China than from a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, for the USA, the employment decline triggered by structural reforms wouM be much smaller than the employment decline caused by a slowdown in growth.
