Data for critical infrastructure network modelling of natural hazard impacts:Needs and influence on model characteristics

Natural hazards impact interdependent infrastructure networks that keep modern society functional.While a va-riety of modelling approaches are available to represent critical infrastructure networks(CINs)on different scales and analyse the impacts of natural hazards,a recurring challenge for all modelling approaches is the availability and accessibility of sufficiently high-quality input and validation data.The resulting data gaps often require mod-ellers to assume specific technical parameters,functional relationships,and system behaviours.In other cases,expert knowledge from one sector is extrapolated to other sectoral structures or even cross-sectorally applied to fill data gaps.The uncertainties introduced by these assumptions and extrapolations and their influence on the quality of modelling outcomes are often poorly understood and difficult to capture,thereby eroding the reliability of these models to guide resilience enhancements.Additionally,ways of overcoming the data avail-ability challenges in CIN modelling,with respect to each modelling purpose,remain an open question.To address these challenges,a generic modelling workflow is derived from existing modelling approaches to examine model definition and validations,as well as the six CIN modelling stages,including mapping of infrastructure assets,quantification of dependencies,assessment of natural hazard impacts,response&recovery,quantification of CI services,and adaptation measures.The data requirements of each stage were systematically defined,and the literature on potential sources was reviewed to enhance data collection and raise awareness of potential pitfalls.The application of the derived workflow funnels into a framework to assess data availability challenges.This is shown through three case studies,taking into account their different modelling purposes:hazard hotspot assess-ments,hazard risk management,and sectoral adaptation.Based on the three model purpose types provided,a framework is suggested to explore the implications of data scarcity for certain data types,as well as their reasons and consequences for CIN model reliability.Finally,a discussion on overcoming the challenges of data scarcity is presented.

Scientific challenges of research on natural hazards and disaster risk

As a discipline,the science of natural hazards and disaster risk aims to explain the spatial-temporal pattern,process and mechanism,emergency response and risk mitigation of natural hazards,which requires a multidisci-plinary and interdisciplinary approach.With the support of Natural Science Finance of China(NSFC)and Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),in-depth research and systematic analysis on natural hazards and disaster risk were conducted.In this paper,the state of the art in research on natural hazards is summarized from seven aspects:formation process,mechanism and dynamic of natural hazards,disaster risk assessment,forecast,monitoring and early warning,disaster mitigation,emergency treatment and rescue,risk management and post-disaster re-construction.The trends within the natural hazards and disaster risk as a discipline were identified,along with existing shortcomings and significant gaps that need to be addressed.This paper highlighted:1)the scientific challenges including the frontier scientific issues and technological gaps on natural hazards and disaster risk dis-cipline from 2025 to 2035 in China,and 2)the proposal to develop a systemic and holistic natural hazards and disaster risk discipline.

Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places.The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities.This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(B-T-H) Region in China.The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index(So VI) method in a Chinese cultural context.Thirty-nine variables adapted from the So VI were collected in relation to two aspects:socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability.Using factor analysis,seven factors were extracted from the variable set:the structure of social development,the level of economic and government financial strength,social justice and poverty,family structure,the intensity of space development,the status of residential housing and transportation,and building structure.Factor scores were summed to get the final So VI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped.The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area.The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities.The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability,in other words,areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event.These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

Natural hazards in Romania induced by heavy rainfalls in 1996-1997

Romania is one of the European countries most frequently affected by natural hazards due to its position within the alpine orogenic system and against the main atmospheric pressure centres.Hence the impact of exogenous factors that trigger strong earthquakes with several epicentres, and of exogenous or climate-driven factors with extreme climatic phenomena causing frequent floods, mass movements, soil erosion, droughts, hailstorms and strong winds. This paper deals mainly with natural disasters cased by the variability of climatic conditions (mostly by precipitations) in the years 1996 and 1997, their temporal and spatial distributions and the way they affected human life. In point of rainfall distribution and the ensuing natural hazards, the mentioned period shows two distinct intervals: December, 1996-March 1997 (mass movements) and June-August, 1997 (floods, hailstorm,Strong wind,landslides, soil erosion).

Natural Hazard Preventinkon and the Mountain Land Risk Reduction in the Western Carpathians

The Western Carpathians are located out of world main natural hazardous zones. Human casualties are related more to snow avalanches in connection with mountain hiking, some individuals yearly by flooding and rarely by forest fires. Economic lost about 0.1 to 0.2 %, exceptionally up to 0.8 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) proportionally to the Carpathian regions of particular countries. Natural disasters are linked, except of the above mentioned events, to infrequent small and medium scale earthquakes, landslides, and erosion. Records of the most harmful natural events are found in archives since the 16th century. Their systematic study and factor analysis started from the end of the 19th century, and protective measures and organization of impact mitigation developed during the 20th century to minimize the risk.

Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.

The Insurance Market of Natural Hazards for Residential Properties in Italy

Insurance is an effective complementary countermeasure for unexpected losses brought about by natural hazards. Coverage can be a useful tool considering in particular that public funds available to compensate for damages are limited and the consequences of catastrophes are becoming more severe over the time. Bearing this in mind, the authors performed a study aiming to clear up the main aspects and limits of the insurance market of natural hazards for residential properties in Italy. The opening sections of the paper give an overview of both the historical extreme events in Europe and Italy, and the reasons for the low insurance penetration rate in Italy. After that, the paper goes to the core of the research casting light upon the insurance market in Italy and examining the features and possible drawbacks of the available insurance covers. In this paper, the geophysical (seismic and volcanic) and hydrological (landslide and flood) hazards are analysed, and the residential stock is taken as a reference. After deepening in the local insurance market, the research focuses on the possible suggestions to stakeholders of how to increase the insurance penetration rate by taking advantage of the international experiences.

Cumulative Exposure to Natural Hazards and Mental Health in China: Are Older People More Vulnerable or More Resilient Than Younger and Middle-Aged Adults?

Despite the well-documented impacts of single natural hazards like earthquakes, less is known about the psychological adaptation to multiple natural hazards, particularly in rural areas. This study investigated the associations of multiple natural hazards with depression among Chinese adults. Data were retrieved from the China Family Panel Studies conducted during 2010–2018. With a sample of 11,633 Chinese adults, multilevel logistic regression was employed to examine the relationships between natural hazard exposure and depression in the total sample and different age groups. Overall, experiencing four or more natural hazards was associated with a higher risk of being depressed. Regarding hazard type, the number of hydrometeorological and biological hazards was associated with a higher likelihood of depression, whereas the number of geologic and other hazards was related to a lower risk of depression. Middle-aged adults from villages were more likely to be affected by natural hazard exposure than older and younger adults. The findings of this study show that cumulative exposure to natural hazards can generate lasting effects on depressive symptoms, particularly in middle adulthood. The findings also suggest that older adults from rural areas may have accumulated more resilience to mitigate the adverse well-being effects of hazard events. Policies and interventions should enhance disaster awareness and preparation for aging residents from multi-hazard communities.

Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Brazil

Although social vulnerability has recently gained attention in academic studies, Brazil lacks frameworks and indicators to assess it for the entire country.Social vulnerability highlights differences in the human capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. It varies over space and time, and among and between social groups, largely due to differences in socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This article provides a social vulnerability index(SoVI~) replication study for Brazil and shows how SoVI~concepts and indicators were adapted to the country. SoVI~Brazil follows the place-based framework adopted in the Social Vulnerability Index initially developed for the United States. Using a principal component analysis(PCA), 45city-level indicators were reduced to 10 factors that explain about 67 % of the variance in the data. Clearly identified spatial patterns showed a concentration of the most socially vulnerable cities in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, as well as the social vulnerability of metropolitan areas and state capitals in the South and Southeast regions.The least vulnerable cities are mainly concentrated in the inland regions of the Southeast. Although different factors contribute to the social vulnerability in each city, the overall results confirm the social and economic disparities among Brazilian’s regions and reflect a differential vulnerability to natural hazards at local to regional scales.

Application of BeiDou navigation satellite system in emergency rescue of natural hazards: a case study for field geological survey of Qinghai−Tibet plateau

In recent years,geological and mineral resources exploration in China has expanded to deep hinterland of the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and other regions with complex geological conditions.The special natural conditions of Qinghai−Tibet Plateau determine the characteristics of“life-forbidden zone”that is characterized by alpine hypoxia,changeable weather,complex road conditions,and beast attack.In particular,the work in wild depopulated zones with severe environment and poor communications imposes serious threats to the life safety of geological personnel.Therefore,how to guarantee the safety of geological personnel working on the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and how to reduce or even avoid casualty of geological personnel have currently become the urgent challenge.In this study,an emergency rescue information system for field geological survey is constructed based on BeiDou Navigation Satellite System.A case study of emergency rescue has been conducted in the depopulated zone of the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and good effects have been achieved,providing security assurance for personnel engaged in field geological survey on the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and technical support for the emergency rescue in case of natural hazards on the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau.The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System(BDS)can be effectively used to locate and communicate in the emergency rescue for rigorous Geological survey task where there is no network signal for the mobile phone,and the emergency rescue guarantee system is independent,reliable,and relatively cheap.The application value of BDS is demonstrated in the geological field.

The Effect of Natural Hazard Damage on Manufacturing Value Added and the Impact of Spatiotemporal Data Variations on the Results

This study examined the effect of natural hazards on manufacturing industry value added and the sensitivity of the results from changes to spatiotemporal resolution of the data.We measured the negative effects of hazards,rather than the net effect.Three models were developed with varying spatio temporal units for the continental United States:annual/county units;annual/state units;and quarterly/state units.Three simulations were run using each model to estimate the negative effect of damage from all natural hazards on value added across spatiotemporal scales.Finally,an investment analysis was conducted to examine the return from public investments in hazard resilience.The results do not demonstrate that,locally,natural hazards reduce value added.However,the evidence suggests that natural hazards in the upstream supply chain have statistically significant impact when modeled at the annual/county scale and at the quarterly/state scale.Neither local nor supply chain hazards have a statistically significant effect when modeled at the annual/state scale,suggesting that broader spatiotemporal units may obscure the true downstream effects of natural hazards.The investment analysis,utilizing model results,suggests that an investment of USD 100 billion or less is economical if it results in a reduction in losses of 10% or more.

Beyond the Expected-Residual Risk and Cases of Overload in the Context of Managing Alpine Natural Hazards

Structural protection measures are designed to protect the population and infrastructure against natural hazards up to a specific predefined protection goal.Extreme events with intensities that exceed the capacity of these protection structures are called“cases of overload”and are associated with“residual risks”that remain after the implementation of protection measures.In order to address residual risks and to reduce the damages from overload events,a combination of structural protection measures with additional,nonstructural measures is required.Based on data collected through a literature review,a questionnaire survey,expert interviews,and an expert workshop we highlight the status quo as well as key challenges of dealing with residual risks and cases of overload in Alpine countries in the context of geohydrological hazards and gravitational mass movements.We present a holistic conceptual framework that describes the relationships of residual risks,cases of overload,and protection goals in the context of both risk governance and integrated risk management.This framework is valuable for decision makers aiming at an improved management of natural hazards that takes adequate account of residual risk and cases of overload in Alpine countries and mountain areas worldwide.

Distributed Simulation Platforms and Data Passing Tools for Natural Hazards Engineering: Reviews, Limitations,and Recommendations

here has been a strong need for simulation environments that are capable of modeling deep interdependencies between complex systems encountered during natural hazards,such as the interactions and coupled effects between civil infrastructure systems response,human behavior,and social policies,for improved community resilience.Coupling such complex components with an integrated simulation requires continuous data exchange between different simulators simulating separate models during the entire simulation process.This can be implemented by means of distributed simulation platforms or data passing tools.In order to provide a systematic reference for simulation tool choice and facilitating the development of compatible distributed simulators for deep interdependent study in the context of natural hazards,this article focuses on generic tools suitable for integration of simulators from different fields but not the platforms that are mainly used in some specific fields.With this aim,the article provides a comprehensive review of the most commonly used generic distributed simulation platforms(Distributed Interactive Simulation(DIS),High Level Architecture(HLA),Test and Training Enabling Architecture(TENA),and Distributed Data Services(DDS))and data passing tools(Robot Operation System(ROS)and Lightweight Communication and Marshalling(LCM))and compares their advantages and disadvantages.Three specific limitations in existing platforms are identified from the perspective of natural hazard simulation.For mitigating the identified limitations,two platform design recommendations are provided,namely message exchange wrappers and hybrid communication,to help improve data passing capabilities in existing solutions and provide some guidance for the design of a new domain-specific distributed simulation framework.

Capacities in Facing Natural Hazards: A Small Island Perspective

Isolated communities on small islands are often characterized as vulnerable and marginalized. We studied the recent history of Laingpatehi, a village on Ruang Island off the north coast of Sulawesi, Indonesia to show that the marginalization-vulnerability nexus can be offset by capacity and social cohesion to enable sustainable livelihoods. The island has been impacted by volcanic eruptions,earthquakes, and competition for marine resources from mainland-based fishermen. The community has shown a remarkable ability to cope and prosper in the face of a series of external hazards. We used a sustainable livelihoods approach to identify the assets that enabled the villagers to cope. Strong social cohesion was central to the ability to organize the community and confront hazards. A diversified livelihood strategy drawing on the small island environment and its coastal and marine resources, income generating activities in a distant satellite village, and significant remittances from employment in other parts of Indonesia underpinned people’s capacities to face hazards.Government assistance played a supporting role. The case of Laingpatehi demonstrates how remoteness, rather than being a source of vulnerability, can provide access to existing resources and facilitate innovation. Disaster risk reduction strategies should focus more on reinforcing these existing capacities to deal with hazards and less on physical protection and postdisaster responses.

Evaluating Land Use and Emergency Management Plans for Natural Hazards as a Function of Good Governance:A Case Study from New Zealand

Plan evaluation is of utmost importance as a function of good governance. It provides a means to improve the institutional basis for implementing land use controls, provides an important opportunity to improve future plans to reduce risk, and improves the vision for sustainable development and management. This article provides an overview of the methods and findings of a plan evaluation project undertaken in New Zealand. The project analyzed 99 operative plans, provided in-depth analysis of ten plans, and included a capability and capacity study of councils. This is the first time all operative plans in New Zealand have had their natural hazard provisions assessed in this manner. The information provides an important baseline for future policy improvements, and a basis for future research and policy directions. The project found that, while New Zealand land use plans appear to be improving over time, there are still opportunities for improvement. These include improving linkages between objectives, policies, and rules within land use plans; and strengthening the linkages between land use and emergency management plans. The largest challenge is the accessibility, understanding of, and updating of hazard information.

The Challenging Place of Natural Hazards in Disaster Risk Reduction Conceptual Models:Insights from Central Africa and the European Alps

Based on a literature review and two case studies,this article presents the difficulties inherent in the main disaster risk reduction conceptual models.The method used to highlight such evidence is to compare two programs on disaster risk reduction with mainstream conceptual models.The authors participated in these programs,which were confronted with the need to integrate contributions and insights from both earth and social sciences.Our analysis found that the existing main conceptual models were unable to do justice to disaster risk reduction needs.This finding encouraged us to critique these models.Further effort led us to present possible solutions to compensate for the shortcomings of current models while taking into account the contextualization and dynamics of phenomena,as well as grappling with the more explicit integration of hazards and hazard risk into model design.

CHINA'S MOST DESTRUCTIVE NATURAL HAZARDS IN 1994

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Multitemporal landslide inventory analysis of an intertropical mountain in west-central Mexico——Basis for hazard management

Landslides in intertropical mountainous areas of Mexico are a natural hazard that could potentially generate a disaster. Despite this, many areas lack landslide inventories, making it difficult to monitor and efficiently manage the associated risks for local populations. For this reason, the aim of this research was to undertake a multitemporal landslide inventory and analyze its conditioning factors in the Pico de Tancítaro stratovolcano, which, in recent decades, has presented several high-risk geomorphological events with disastrous consequences for nearby localities. The spatial distribution of landslides and its conditioning factors were mapped at a 1:50,000 scale for the 1995-2020 period, through visual interpretation of orthophotos and satellite images(Landsat, SPOT, and SENTINEL). The conditioning factors that link the most to landslides were Quaternary andesite and basaltic andesite rocks;volcanic cones, mountain river valleys, and very steep to steep slopes(30° to >45°), oriented to the South, North, and East;Andosols and Leptosols;and the oyamel fir and mixed forests. 505 landslide events classified into slides and flows that occurred in 1995, 2004, 2010, and 2015 were identified. New scars generated by the reactivation of landslide processes were also observed. The landslides in the study area were triggered by torrential rains caused by hurricanes and tropical storms;such as hurricanes Alex and Patricia. The inventory and analysis of conditioning factors highlighted the distribution and dynamics of slides and flows in the study area. In addition, the most important factors for studies of landslide susceptibility, hazards, and risks in the Pico de Tancítaro stratovolcano were identified, contributing to the management of geomorphological risks in intertropical mountain areas.

Cartographic-Environmental Analysis of the Landscape in Natural Protected Parks for His Management Using GIS.Application to the Natural Parks of the“Las Batuecas-Sierra de Francia”and“Quilamas”(Central System,Spain)

In this work we report a methodological procedure with an integrated physical-perceptual approach that allows units of landscape in protected natural areas to be differentiated. First, indirect methods were applied by means of a mapping procedure, which identified the physical components of major relevance. We then generated maps of natural units, anlyzing the “printed” landscape of a territory. Secondly, we developed direct methods to identify and describe the reresentative elements of the landscape, analyzing the “perceived” landscape. The identification and delimitation of these landscape units with geographical information systems provide detailed maps facilitate the tasks of planning and management. The procedure was validated by means of its application in two protected natural spaces. The treatment used here considers landscape not only as an aesthetic element but also as something “live” elaborating maps that should be of use in land planning and management of natural areas.

Geophysical Investigation of the Triassic Salt Material Hazard: El Fahs Case Example (Northern Tunisia)

The Tunisian territory (area of diapirs) is exposed to the risks of ground movements linked to water, some of which are related to the phenomenon of dissolution of gypsum, allowing the appearance of underground cavities which present natural risks and set people in danger. The analysis of the hazard was determined by the field study coupled with the application of geophysical methods to locate and map the cavities and identify their dimensions and their positions in the subsoil. In the region of El Fahs (40 km NW of Tunis): we used a non-destructive method, georadar (GPR) with a 200 MHz antenna band-width, and an electric method, by using the electric tomography of which we have applicated the sequence of dipole-dipole measurement. The results ob-tained were examined and interpreted according to 2D profiles. The geophysi-cal methods of GPR and electrical tomography aim to detect many calvities in different depths. However, the geological radar was able to identify several cavities and the zones of dissolution whose investigation depth did not exceed the first 3 meters. On the contrary, the electric tomography method allowing the presence of several deeper underground cavities with larger dimensions ex-tended to 64 meters. To conclude, the geological and hydrogeological contexts of the terrain studied and on the state of the soil and subsoil allow us to better understanding the mechanisms of the establishment of the dissolution phe-nomenon and the appearance of cavities in the basement. The analysis of the predisposing factors present in the study area shows that the geodynamic con-text of the Triassic ascent takes place according to a precise thermodynamic process that favors the phenomenon of dissolution of the gypsum.