The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis

Objective To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever（DF） cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China. Methods The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index （BI）, and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases. Results A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month＇s BI, average temperature （Tare）, previous month＇s minimum temperature （Train）, and Tare were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25℃ was found in the relationship between the current month＇s Tmin and DF incidence. Conclusion Mosquito density, Tove, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic.

Safety Analysis of Riding at Intersection Entrance Using Video Recognition Technology

To study riding safety at intersection entrance,video recognition technology is used to build vehicle-bicycle conflict models based on the Bayesian method.It is analyzed the relationship among the width of nonmotorized lanes at the entrance lane of the intersection,the vehicle-bicycle soft isolation form of the entrance lane of intersection,the traffic volume of right-turning motor vehicles and straight-going non-motor vehicles,the speed of right-turning motor vehicles,and straight-going non-motor vehicles,and the conflict between right-turning motor vehicles and straight-going nonmotor vehicles.Due to the traditional statistical methods,to overcome the discreteness of vehicle-bicycle conflict data and the differences of influencing factors,the Bayesian random effect Poisson-log-normal model and random effect negative binomial regression model are established.The results show that the random effect Poisson-log-normal model is better than the negative binomial distribution of random effects;The width of non-motorized lanes,the form of vehicle-bicycle soft isolation,the traffic volume of right-turning motor vehicles,and the coefficients of straight traffic volume obey a normal distribution.Among them,the type of vehicle-bicycle soft isolation facilities and the vehicle-bicycle traffic volumes are significantly positively correlated with the number of vehicle-bicycle conflicts.The width of non-motorized lanes is significantly negatively correlated with the number of vehicle-bicycle conflicts.Peak periods and flat periods,the average speed of right-turning motor vehicles,and the average speed of straight-going non-motor vehicles have no significant influence on the number of vehicle-bicycle conflicts.

Ruin Probability and Joint Distributions of Some Actuarial Random Vectors in the Compound Pascal Model

The compound negative binomial model, introduced in this paper, is a discrete time version. We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process, and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuarial random vectors in this model. By the strong Markov property and the mass function of a defective renewal sequence, we obtain the explicit expressions of the ruin probability, the finite-horizon ruin probability, the joint distributions of T, U（T - 1）, ｜U（T）｜ and inf U（n） （i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, the deficit at ruin and maximal deficit from ruin to recovery） and the distributions of some actuarial random vectors.

International transferability of macro-level safety performance functions: a case study of the United States and Italy

Safety performance functions(SPFs),or crash-prediction models,have played an important role in identifying the factors contributing to crashes,predicting crash counts and identifying hotspots.Since a great deal of time and effort is needed to estimate an SPF,previous studies have sought to determine the transferability of particular SPFs;that is,the extent to which they can be applied to data from other regions.Although many efforts have been made to examine micro-level SPF transferability,few studies have focused on macro-level SPF transferability.There has been little transferability analysis of macro-level SPFs in the international context,especially between western countries.This study therefore evaluates the transferability of SPFs for several states in the USA(Illinois,Florida and Colorado)and for Italy.The SPFs were developed using data from counties in the United States and provincias in Italy,and the results revealed multiple common significant variables between the two countries.Transferability indexes were then calculated between the SPFs.These showed that the Italy SPFs for total crashes and bicycle crashes were transferable to US data after calibration factors were applied,whereas the US SPFs for total and bicycle crashes,with the exception of the Colorado SPF,could not be transferred to the Italian data.On the other hand,none of the pedestrian SPFs developed was transferable to other countries.This paper provides insights into the applicability of macro-level SPFs between the USA and Italy,and shows a good potential for international SPF transferability.Nevertheless,further investigation is needed of SPF transferability between a wider range of countries.

1995-2015年中国老年人口迁移的空间格局与影响因素

Although China was one of the countries with the fastest-growing aging population in the world,limited scholarly attention has been paid to migration among older adults in China.The full picture of their migration in the entire country over time remains unknown.This study examines the spatial patterns of older interprovincial migration flows and their drivers in China over the period 1995 to 2015,using four waves of census data and intercensal population sample survey data.Results from eigenvector spatial filtering negative binomial regressions indicate that older adults tend to migrate away from low cost-of-living rural areas to high cost-of-living urban and rural areas,moving away from areas with extreme temperature differences.The location of their grandchildren is among the most important attractions.Our findings suggest that family-oriented migration is more common than amenity-led migration among retired Chinese older adults,and the cost-of-living is an indicator of economic opportunities for adult children and the quality of senior care services.