This paper demonstrates that the alternative data of manager turnover can provide investors and policymakers with a more timely and available predictor of new firm performance beyond the traditional financial informat...This paper demonstrates that the alternative data of manager turnover can provide investors and policymakers with a more timely and available predictor of new firm performance beyond the traditional financial information.This paper constructs a comprehensive alternative dataset of manager turnover that covers a near-population sample of new firms in the United Kingdom.It shows that manager departures and appointments can predict new firms’survival and growth,even after controlling for firm financials.In addition to the within-firm prediction,the average manager turnover in other firms of the same industry can cross-predict individual firm performance.The within-firm prediction is more pronounced for non-family firms,smaller firms and firms incorporated during or after the Great Recession,and the cross-firm prediction is stronger for younger firms.This paper sheds light on the power of alternative data in the prediction of firm performance,particularly for new firms that often do not have available information.展开更多
This paper represents an attempt to test the relationship between the exports and productivity of Chinese firms using the data set of nearly 3 million industrial firms in 20 industrial sectors over the period 1998-200...This paper represents an attempt to test the relationship between the exports and productivity of Chinese firms using the data set of nearly 3 million industrial firms in 20 industrial sectors over the period 1998-2007. Our test finds that non-export firms were more productive than export firms, and exports were negatively related to productivity-namely that the lower the productivity of a firm, the higher its exports. This finding is in contradiction with the hypothesis of new-new trade theory. The contradiction is referred to as the "productivity paradox" in this paper. Further tests find that firm size is a key factor affecting firm exports, but the impact of exports on firm productivity is insignif icant. This paper reckons that the "productivity paradox" of Chinese export firms may be attributed to the disproportionate share of processing trade in export trade.展开更多
文摘This paper demonstrates that the alternative data of manager turnover can provide investors and policymakers with a more timely and available predictor of new firm performance beyond the traditional financial information.This paper constructs a comprehensive alternative dataset of manager turnover that covers a near-population sample of new firms in the United Kingdom.It shows that manager departures and appointments can predict new firms’survival and growth,even after controlling for firm financials.In addition to the within-firm prediction,the average manager turnover in other firms of the same industry can cross-predict individual firm performance.The within-firm prediction is more pronounced for non-family firms,smaller firms and firms incorporated during or after the Great Recession,and the cross-firm prediction is stronger for younger firms.This paper sheds light on the power of alternative data in the prediction of firm performance,particularly for new firms that often do not have available information.
基金funded by the bigness program of Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciencethe Center for International Competitiveness of Chinese Economy under the "985 Program" of Fudan University for providing the invaluable data used in this paper
文摘This paper represents an attempt to test the relationship between the exports and productivity of Chinese firms using the data set of nearly 3 million industrial firms in 20 industrial sectors over the period 1998-2007. Our test finds that non-export firms were more productive than export firms, and exports were negatively related to productivity-namely that the lower the productivity of a firm, the higher its exports. This finding is in contradiction with the hypothesis of new-new trade theory. The contradiction is referred to as the "productivity paradox" in this paper. Further tests find that firm size is a key factor affecting firm exports, but the impact of exports on firm productivity is insignif icant. This paper reckons that the "productivity paradox" of Chinese export firms may be attributed to the disproportionate share of processing trade in export trade.
