Determining the surface fault-rupture hazard zone for the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian fault zone through comprehensive analysis of surface rupture from the February 6,2023,Earthquake(Mw 7.7)

Following surface rupture observations in populated areas affected by the KahramanmaraşEarthquake(Mw 7.7)on February 6th,2023,along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone(EAFZ),this study presents novel insights into physical criteria for delineating surface fault-rupture hazard zones(SRHZs)along ruptured strike-slip faults.To achieve this objective,three trench studies across the surface rupture were conducted on the Pazarcık segment of the EAFZ to collect field data,and earthquake recurrence intervals were interpreted using Bayesian statistics from previously conducted paleoseismological trenchings.The results of the proposed model indicate that the Pazarcık segment produced five significant surface-rupturing earthquakes in the last∼11 kyr:E1:11.13±1.74 kyr,E2:7.62±1.20 kyr,E3:5.34±1.05 kyr,E4:1.82±0.93 kyr,and E5:0.35±0.11 kyr.In addition,the recurrence intervals of destructive earthquakes on the subject in question range from 0.6 kyr to 4.8 kyr.Considering that the last significant earthquake occurred in 1513,the longest time since the most recent surface fault rupturing earthquake on this particular segment was 511 years.These results indicate that,in terms of the theoretical recurrence interval of earthquakes that can create surface ruptures on the Pazarcık segment,the period in which the February 6,2023,earthquake occurred was within the end of the expected return period.As a result,the potential for a devastating earthquake in the near future is not foreseen on the same fault.Finally,the SRHZ proposed for the Pazarcık section of Gölbaşıvillage was calculated as a 61-meter-wide offset on the fault lineament to reduce the negativities that may occur in the ruptured area in the future.It is recommended to take into account this width in the settlement of this area and nearby areas.

Longling-Lancang fault zone in southwest Yunnan, China——A newly-generated rupture zone in Continental crust

The Longling-Lancang fault zone, consisting of sets of en echelon or clustered faults, is a newly-generated rupture zone. it is characterized by the distribution of active faults, earthquake faults and earthguakes in zones. Formed in the Early-Middle Pleistocene, stili active in the late, it moves dextrally and extensionally. it tends to cut off the locked segments and discontinuous segments at first, then pervades totally along the zone, accompanied by strong earthguakes.

Newly-generated Seismic Rupture Zone:Identification,Type Division and Seismogeological Significance

The results of geological research show that those phenomena such as surface geology,geomorphology,deep geophysical field,and time-space distribution of seismicities can be usedas the main seismogeological indicators to identify the newly-generated seismic rupture zone(NSRZ).According to their formation and evolution process,the NSRZs can be divided intothree types:pre-rupture-isolated,quasi-rupture-discontinuous and major-rupture-connected.In a pre-rupture-isolated NSRZ,the seismicity is dominated by medium-small earthquakes.In a quasi-rupture-discontinuous NSRZ,the frequency and intensity of strong earthquakesincrease and there may even be the largest earthquake to occur.A major-rupture-connectedNSRZ is the segment where rupture has entered the mature stage;in such a zone,theintensity and duration of seismic activity depend on the constitutive condition and regionalstress field in the zone.

Preliminary report of coseismic surface rupture(part)of Türkiye's M_(W)7.8 earthquake by remote sensing interpretation

Both M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes occurred in southeastern Türkiye on February 6,2023,resulting in numerous buildings collapsing and serious casualties.Understanding the distribution of coseismic surface ruptures and secondary disasters surrounding the epicentral area is important for post-earthquake emergency and disaster assessments.High-resolution Maxar and GF-2 satellite data were used after the events to extract the location of the rupture surrounding the first epicentral area.The results show that the length of the interpreted surface rupture zone(part of)is approximately 75 km,with a coseismic sinistral dislocation of 2-3 m near the epicenter;however,this reduced to zero at the tip of the southwest section of the East Anatolia Fault Zone.Moreover,dense soil liquefaction pits were triggered along the rupture trace.These events are in the western region of the Eurasian Seismic Belt and result from the subduction and collision of the Arabian and African Plates toward the Eurasian Plate.The western region of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent areas are in the eastern section of the Eurasian Seismic Belt,where seismic activity is controlled by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian Plates.Both China and Türkiye have independent tectonic histories.

Surface rupture zone of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province

Based on the latest displacement of Huoshan piedmont fault, Mianshan west-side fault and Taigu fault obtained from the beginning of 1990s up to the present, the characteristics of distribution and displacement of surface rup-ture zone of the 1303 Hongtong M = 8 earthquake, Shanxi Province are synthesized and discussed in the paper. If Taigu fault, Mianshan west-side fault and Huoshan piedmont fault were contemporarily active during the 1303 Hongtong M = 8 earthquake, the surface rupture zone would be 160 km long and could be divided into 3 segments, that is, the 50-km-long Huoshan piedmont fault segment, 35-km-long Mianshan west-side fault segment and 70-km-long Taigu fault segment, respectively. Among them, there exist 4 km and 8 km step regions. The surface rupture zone exhibits right-lateral features. The displacements of northern and central segments are respectively 6~7 m and the southern segment has the maximum displacement of 10 m. The single basin-boundary fault of Shanxi fault-depression system usually corresponds to M 7 earthquake, while this great earthquake (M = 8) broke through the obstacle between two basins. It shows that the surface rupture scale of great earthquake is changeable.

Deformation of the Most Recent Co-seismic Surface Ruptures Along the Garzê–Yushu Fault Zone(Dangjiang Segment)and Tectonic Implications For the Tibetan Plateau

The Garzê–Yushu strike-slip fault in central Tibet is the locus of strong earthquakes（M 〉 7）. The deformation and geometry of the co-seismic surface ruptures are reflected in the surface morphology of the fault and depend on the structure of the upper crust as well as the pre-existing tectonics. Therefore, the most recent co-seismic surface ruptures along the Garzê–Yushu fault zone（Dangjiang segment） reveal the surface deformation of the central Tibetan Plateau. Remote sensing images and field investigations suggest a 85 km long surface rupture zone（striking NW-NWW）, less than 50 m wide, defined by discontinuous fault scarps, right-stepping en echelon tensional cracks and left-stepping mole tracks that point to a left-lateral strike-slip fault. The gullies that cross fault scarps record systematic left-lateral offsets of 1.8 m to 5.0 m owing to the most recent earthquake, with moment magnitude of about M 7.5, in the Dangjiang segment. Geological and geomorphological features suggest that the spatial distribution of the 1738 co-seismic surface rupture zone was controlled by the pre-existing active Garzê–Yushu fault zone（Dangjiang segment）. We confirm that the Garzê–Yushu fault zone, a boundary between the Bayan Har Block to the north and the Qiangtang Block to the south, accommodates the eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau and generates strong earthquakes that release the strain energy owing to the relative motion between the Bayan Har and Qiangtang Blocks.

The Surface Rupture Zone and Coseismic Deformation Produced by the Yutian Ms7.3 Earthquake of 21 March 2008,Xinjiang

On 21 March 2008, a Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Quickbird, Yutian County, Xinjiang. We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of this shock and its coseismic deformation field. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite images as well as differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar （D-InSAR） data from the satellite Envisat SAR, coupled with seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 40 km-long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and simple structure with 1-3-m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5 m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks are seen, exhibiting remarkable extension. The eoseismic deformation affected a large area 100~100 km2. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence. Because of the big deformation gradients near the seismogenic fault, no interference fringes are seen on images, and what can be determined is a vertical displacement 70 cm or more between the two fault walls. According to the epicenter and differential occurrence times from the National Earthquake Information Center, China Earthquake Network Center, Harvard and USGS, it is suggested that the seismic fault ruptured from north to south.

Mercury indicating inflow zones and ruptures along the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake fault

During the Wenchuan Fault Scientific Drilling Project,we determined the values of total mercury(HgT)and gaseous elemental mercury(GEM) from drilled cores and drilling mud,respectively.Geochemical analysis shows HgT values ranging from 0.24 to 6.45 ng/g for the Penguan complex and from 2.90 to 137.54 ng/g for T3 sediment.The average levels of HgT for the Penguan complex and T3 sediments are 1.81 ± 0.26 ng/g and23.96 ± 4.80 ng/g,respectively.Major anomalous peaks of HgT appear at depth of 614,731,993 and 1,107 m,which correspond to the long-term high seismic activity during crustal deformation in response to tectonic stresses.Gaseous elemental mercury dissolved in drilling mud was also analyzed.We found fluid inflow zones with high GEM at depths of 590-750 m,suggesting that fluid-filled ruptures exist in the LMS fault zone.It indicates that mercury provides geochemical evidence for inflow zones and ruptures/fault zones in the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake fault.

Preliminary Study on Two Newly-Generated Seismotectonic Zones in North and Southwest China

In previous seismotectonic studies,the emphasis was placed on the inherited active fault zones.In the recent tectonic stage that essentially keeps in step with the current regional geologic environment and the stress field,however,there are also some newly generated fault zones.By studying the seismicity in North and Southwest China,it has been known that the NE-trending Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian and NW-trending Tengchong-Gengma-Lancang seismic zones are just two newly generated fault zones.As distinguished from the inherited fault zones,they are called the newly generated seismotectonic zones.This paper deals with the existence of these two seismogenic zones from their seismicity and geological structures,gives a preliminary analysis of their characteristics,and shows their significance.

Quantitative analysis on tectonic deformation of active rupture zones

Based on the regional GPS data of high spatial resolution, we present a method of quantitative analysis on the tectonic deformation of active rupture zones in order to predict the location of forthcoming major earthquakes. Firstly we divide the main fault area into certain deformation units, then derive the geometric deformation and relative dislocation parameters of each unit and finally estimate quantitatively the slip and strain rates in each segment of the rupture zone. Furthermore, by comparing the consistency of deformation in all segments of the whole rupture zone, we can determine the possible anomalous segments as well as their properties and amplitudes. In analyzing the eastern boundaries of Sichuan-Yunnan block with the GPS velocity data for the period of 1991-2001, we have discovered that the Mianning-Ningnan-Dongchuan segment on the Zemuhe-Xiaojiang fault zone is relatively locked and the left-lateral shear strain rate here is higher.

Influence factors on the ground surface rupture zone induced by buried normal fault dislocation

The seismic disaster presents a zonal distribution along the fault strike.In this paper,rupture zone of ground surface soil caused by the uniform dislocation,inclined dislocation and warped dislocation of buried normal fault are studied by constituting a three-dimensional finite element model in Automatic Dynamic Incremental Nonlinear Analysis(ADINA).According to the critical value of surface rupture,the variational features and influencing factors of width and starting position of the"avoiding zone"in engineering construction are analyzed by using 96 model calculations.The main results are as follows:(1)Since the rupture zone of the ground surface soil from the point of mechanics is different from the"avoidance zone"from the point of engineering safety,the equivalent plastic strain and the total displacement ratio should be considered to evaluate the effect of the seismic ground movement on buildings.(2)During fault dislocation,plastic failure firstly occurred on the ground surface soil of the footwall side,and then the larger deformation gradually moved to the side of the hanging wall of the fault with the increase of fault displacement.(3)When the vertical displacement of buried fault reaches 3 m,the width of"avoiding zone"in engineering construction varies within the range of 10-90 m,which is most affected by the thickness of overlying soil and the dip angle of the fault.

Application of High-Resolution Remote Sensing Technology in Quantitative Study on Coseismic Surface Rupture Zones: An Example of the 2008 M_w7.2 Yutian Earthquake

Objective Nowadays, high-resolution remote sensing technology has brought new changes to surveys of earthquakes, and the quantitative study of seismic faults based on this technology has become a trend in the world(Barzegari et al., 2017). An Mw 7.2 earthquake occurred in Yutian of Xinjiang on the western end of the Altyn Tagh fault on March 21 st, 2008. It is difficult to access this depopulated zone because of the high altitude and only 1–2 months of snowmelt. This study utilized high-resolution

The Emergency Scientific Investigation on the Surface Rupture Zone of the M_S 7.1 Yushu Earthquake

The coseismic surface rupture zone of the seismogenic fault of the Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake includes three left-stepping main ruptures, striking 300°- 320°, in general. An approximately 2km-long en echelon tension fissure zone was found at Longbao town. The main rupture in the northern part is about 16km long, about 9kin long in the middle part, and about 7km long in the southern part, with a total length of 34km. Each of the main ruptures consists of a series of en echelon sub-ruptures represented by a series of compression bulges alternating with tension fissures or by en echelon fissures. The rupture at Changusi, the southernmost of the ruptures, is characterized by vertical displacement, with a value of 50cm. The rupture zone shows left-lateral strike-slip characteristics. The maximal horizontal slip is on the northern main rupture, with a value of 1.8m.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.

Study on rupture zone of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake using fault-zone trapped waves

The observation of the fault-zone trapped waves was conducted using a seismic line with dense receivers across surface rupture zone of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake. The fault zone trapped waves were separated from seismograms by numerical filtering and spectral analyzing. The results show that: a) Both explosion and earthquake sources can excite fault-zone trapped waves, as long as they locate in or near the fault zone; b) Most energy of the fault-zone trapped waves concentrates in the fault zone and the amplitudes strongly decay with the distance from observation point to the fault zone; c) Dominant frequencies of the fault-zone trapped waves are related to the width of the fault zone and the velocity of the media in it. The wider the fault zone or the lower the velocity is, the lower the dominant frequencies are; d) For fault zone trapped waves, there exist dispersions; e) Based on the fault zone trapped waves observed in Kunlun Mountain Pass region, the width of the rupture plane is deduced to be about 300 m and is greater than that on the surface.

Parameters of Coseismic Reverse- and Oblique-Slip Surface Ruptures of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,Eastern Tibetan Plateau

On May 12th, 2008, the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake ruptured the Beichuan, Pengguan and Xiaoyudong faults simultaneously along the middle segment of the Longmenshan thrust belt at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. Field investigations constrain the surface rupture pattern, length and offsets related to the Wenchuan earthquake. The Beichuan fault has a NE-trending rightlateral reverse rupture with a total length of 240 km. Reassessment yields a maximum vertical offset of 6.5±0.5 m and a maximum right-lateral offset of 4.9±0.5 m for its northern segment, which are the largest offsets found; the maximum vertical offset is 6.2±0.5 m for its southern segment. The Pengguan fault has a NE-trending pure reverse rupture about 72 km long with a maximum vertical offset of about 3.5 m. The Xiaoyudong fault has a NW-striking left-lateral reverse rupture about 7 km long between the Beichuan and Pengguan faults, with a maximum vertical offset of 3.4 m and left-lateral offset of 3.5 m. This pattern of multiple co-seismic surface ruptures is among the most complicated of recent great earthquakes and presents a much larger danger than if they ruptured individually. The rupture length is the longest for reverse faulting events ever reported.

Surface Rupture of the 1515 Yongsheng Earthquake in Northwest Yunnan, and Its Seismogeological Implications

The 1515 M7/4 Yongsheng earthquake is the strongest earthquake historically in northwest Yunnan. However, its time, magnitude and the seismogenic fault have long been a topic of dispute. In order to accurately define those problems, a 1：50000 active tectonic mapping was carried out along the northern segment of the Chenghai-Binchuan fault zone. The result shows that there is an at least 25 km- long surface rupture and a series of seismic landslides distributed along the Jinguan fault and the Chenghai fault. Radiocarbon dating of the 14C samples indicates that the surface rupture should be a part of the deformation zone caused by the Yongsheng earthquake in the year 1515. The distribution characteristics of this surface rupture indicate that the macroscopic epicenter of the 1515 Yongsheng earthquake may be located near Hongshiya, and the seismogenic fault of this earthquake is the Jinguan- Chenghai fault, the northern part of the Chenghai-Binchuan fault zone. Striations on the surface rupture show that the latest motion of the fault is normal faulting. The maximum co-seismic vertical displacement can be 3.8 m, according to the empirical formula for the fault displacement and moment magnitude relationship, the moment magnitude of the Yongsheng earthquake was Mw 7.3-7.4. Furthermore, combining published age data with the 14C data in this paper reveals that at least four large earthquakes of similar size to the 1515 Yongsheng earthquake, have taken place across the northern segment of the Chenghai-Binchuan fault zone since 17190~50 yr. BP. The in-situ recurrence interval of Mw 7.3-7.4 characteristic earthquakes in Yongsheng along this fault zone is possibly on the order of 6 ka.

Analysis of Remote Sensing Images of Ground Ruptures Resulting from the Kunlun Mountain Pass Earthquake in 2001

On November 14, 2001, an earthquake measuring a magnitude of 8.1 occurred to the west of the Kunlun Mountain Pass which is near the border between Xinjiang and Qinghai of China. Since its epicenter is located in an area at an elevation of 4900 m where the environment is extremely adverse, field investigation to this event seems very difficult. We have performed interpretation and analysis of the satellite images of ETM, SPOT, Ikonos, and ERS-1/2SAR to reveal the spatial distribution and deformation features of surface ruptures caused by this large earthquake. Our results show that the rupture zone on the ground is 426 km long, and strikes N90-110°E with evident left-lateral thrusting. In spatial extension, it has two distinct sections. One extends from the Bukadaban peak to the Kunlun Mountain Pass, with a total length of 350 km, and trending N95-110°E. Its fracture plane is almost vertical, with clear linear rupture traces and a single structure, and the maximum left-lateral offset is 7.8 m. This section is the main rupture zone caused by the earthquake, which is a re-fracturing along an old fault. The other is the section from Kushuihuan to the Taiyang Lake. It is 26 km long, trending N90-105°E, with the maximum strike-slip displacement being 3 m, and is a newly-generated seismic rupture. In a 50 km-long section between the Taiyang Lake and the Bukadaban peak, no rupture is found on the ground. The eastern and western rupture zones may have resulted from two earthquakes. The macroscopic epicenter is situated at 65 km east of the Hoh Sai Lake. The largest coseismic horizontal offset in the macroscopic epicenter ranges from 7 m to 8 m. Based on the dislocation partition of the whole rupture zone, it is suggested that this rupture zone has experienced a process of many times of intensification and fluctuation, exhibiting a remarkable feature of segmentation.

Exploration of Suspected Surface Ruptures of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake at Frontal Areas of Longmenshan Using Shallow Seismic Reflection

The great M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 was generated by abrupt faulting in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault along the Longmenshan fault zone. The earthquake not only produced surface ruptures along the Yingxiu-Beichuan and Guanxian-Jiangyou faults,but also surface ruptures,arching of highway pavement,sand-boils and waterspouts in various degrees in areas such as Shifang and Mianzhu on the Chengdu Plain. To understand the shallow geological structures under the surface rupture zone,a 6350m long high-resolution shallow seismic reflection profile in near-EW direction was performed. This profile is located at Shigu town,Shifang city,where a suspected earthquake surface rupture zone was discovered. In this study,a group interval of 3m,shotpoint interval of 18m,and a 300-channel 25-fold observation system were used. In consideration of both near-surface reflections and dipping interface imaging,we adopted the split-spread geometry and asymmetrical zero-offset receiving technique. To better suppress random-noise and raise the signal-to-noise ratio of seismic data,30 times vertical stacking of vibrator signals was made for each common-shot gather after correlation of individual records. By using the above work method and spread geometry,we obtained high-resolution images of structures in the depth range of 15m～800m after data processing. The result shows the existence of buried thrust faults thrusting to the plain area and back-thrust faults under the surface rupture zone. It also shows that the activity of the buried thrust faults may be the main cause for folding and deformation in near-surface strata and coseismic surface rupturing.

Potential rupture surface model and its ap-plication on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis （PSHA） methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi （Jiji） earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. （1） This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; （2） The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.