Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19:A next generation matrix approach

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial.Masks are thought to have two modes of effect:they prevent infection with COVID-19 in wearers;and prevent transmission by individuals with subclinical infection.We used a simple next-generation matrix approach to estimate the conditions under which masks would reduce the reproduction number of COVID-19 under a threshold of 1.Our model takes into account the possibility of assortative mixing,where mask users interact preferentially with other mask users.We make 3 key observations:1.Masks,even with suboptimal efficacy in both prevention of acquisition and transmission of infection,could substantially decrease the reproduction number for COVID-19 if widely used.2.Widespread masking may be sufficient to suppress epidemics where R has been brought close to 1 via other measures(e.g.,distancing).3.“Assortment”within populations(the tendency for interactions between masked individuals to be more likely than interactions between masked and unmasked individuals)would rapidly erode the impact of masks.As such,mask uptake needs to be fairly universal to have an effect.This simple model suggests that widespread uptake of masking could be determinative in suppressing COVID-19 epidemics in regions with R(t)at or near 1.

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

Background:As reported by the World Health Organization,a novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January,2020.The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February,2020.This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.Methods:In this study,we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source(probably be bats)to the human infection.Since the Bats-HostsReservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market(reservoir)to people,we simplified the model as Reservoir-People(RP)transmission network model.The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number(R0)from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.Results:The value of R0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.Conclusions:Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries,similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome,but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.

Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January eFebruary 2020.Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members,we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak.Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as^11,which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore(approximate range:1.1e7).Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control.Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold,indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.

Mathematical modelling on phase based transmissibility of Coronavirus

Mathematical and epidemiological simulation plays a pivotal role in predicting,anticipating,and controlling present and future epidemics.To better understand and model the dynamics of a specific infection,researchers need to consider the influence of many variables ranging from micro-hostepathogen interactions to host-to-host encounters,and the prevailing cultural,social,economic,and local customs worldwide.As reported by the WHO,a novel corona virus(COVID-19)is identified as the etiological virus through Wuhan pneumonia for unknown etiology with Chinese administration on Jan 7,2020.This virus is designated as an unsympathetic SARS-Cov-2 by International Commission for Taxonomy of Viruses on Feb 11,2020.The main aim is to enlarge a phase based mathematical modelling to specify the transferability of this disease.It is developed Reservoir-individuals spreading set of connections modelling for imitating the prospective broadcast as of the infectivity foundation in the direction of the person infectivity.In view of the fact that,the Reservoir has set of connections to rigid to see the sights obviously as well as communal anxieties are concentrating on top of the spreading starting reservoir to individuals.The subsequent generation matrix methodology is endorsed towards compute the fundamental reproduction number(R0)through the RP modelling to measure the transferability by the COVID-19.The values of R0 are estimated from reservoir to human being as well as starting individual to individual,that is to say,the accepted quantity of less important diseases this consequence from presenting a solitary contaminated personality addicted to differently susceptible inhabitants.The present model demonstrated that the spreading of COVID-19 is superior to the Middle-East pulmonary infirmity during the Middle-East nationals,analogous to harsh sensitive pulmonary infirmity,but inferior than Middle-East pulmonary infirmity within the Republic of Korea.It can also extend this study to some other countries,including Saudi Arabia,Italy,and Germany etc.The COVID-19 pandemic has become the leading societal concern.The pandemic has shown that the public health concern is not only a medical problem,but also affects society as a whole;so,it has also become the leading scientific concern.