Analysis on the exchange rate of Australian dollar

Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.

Renminbi Nominal Effective Exchange Rate for Third Market Competition:An Approach Based on Disaggregated Trade Data

When measuring the nominal effective exchange rate （NEER）, three factors should be considered： direct import competition, direct export competition and third market competuion. The traditional NEER methodology using aggregated export trade data underestimates the competition between countries producing homogeneous goods, so that the weight of the effective exchange rates is too reliant on trade scale. Based on 2002 6-digit items of the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System, this paper employs the competitive stress index to adjust the weighting system of the renminbi NEER for third market competition. In the new weighting system, European countries and some emerging economies have higher weights compared with some of the developed countries, including the USA, Japan and resources-dominated eeonomies~ This research will facilitate the understanding of changes in China＇s export competitiveness.

An Analysis of the Determinants of the Changes in China's Foreign Exchange Reserves' Nominal and Real Rates of Return

We use decomposition and regression to examine the reasons for the changes in nominal and real rates of return of China＇s foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2009. The results show that the US financial market risk premium is the most important determinant of changes in the nominal rate of return, while the US dollar exchange rate and the bulk commodity price are the two key determinants of changes in the real rate of return. From empirically based research, one may conclude that the loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve increases China＇s foreign exchange reserves＇ nominal rate of return but decreases the real rate of return and that the European debt crisis has an uncertain impact on China＇s foreign exchange reserves＇ nominal rate of return but may well raise the real rate of return.

Japan's Bubble,the USA's Bubble and China's Bubble

This paper compares the three recent episodes of boom and bust cycles m asset prices： Japan in the late 1980s to the 1990s; the USA since the mid-1990s; and China during the past decade. Although we have not yet seen a collapse of Chinese property prices, their increases so far are comparable to those in the other two episodes and a careful comparative study is warranted The present paper first examines the behavior of asset prices, of property prices in particular, in the three cases, and highlights some similarities. The paper emphasizes the role played by extremely easy monetary policy in generating bubble-like asset price behavior in the three cases. The reason for easy monetary policies is investigated. In the US case, the monetary authority was concerned about the risk of deflation in the early to mid- 2000s. The experiences of Japan and China are quite similar in that the monetary authorities of both countries were seriously concerned about the possible deflationary effects of exchange rate appreciation on the economy. The implications of such a finding for the future of Chinese macroeconomic policy are discussed