Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATING FUNCTION IN THE NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODEL WITH AGGREGATED DATA

The purpose of this paper is to study the theory of conservative estimating functions in nonlinear regression model with aggregated data. In this model, a quasi-score function with aggregated data is defined. When this function happens to be conservative, it is projection of the true score function onto a class of estimation functions. By constructing, the potential function for the projected score with aggregated data is obtained, which have some properties of log-likelihood function.

Noether's theorem for non-conservative Hamilton system based on El-Nabulsi dynamical model extended by periodic laws

This paper focuses on the Noether symmetries and the conserved quantities for both holonomic and nonholonomic systems based on a new non-conservative dynamical model introduced by E1-Nabulsi. First, the E1-Nabulsi dynamical model which is based on a fractional integral extended by periodic laws is introduced, and E1-Nabulsi-Hamilton＇s canoni- cal equations for non-conservative Hamilton system with holonomic or nonholonomic constraints are established. Second, the definitions and criteria of E1-Nabulsi-Noether symmetrical transformations and quasi-symmetrical transformations are presented in terms of the invariance of E1-Nabulsi-Hamilton action under the infinitesimal transformations of the group. Fi- nally, Noether＇s theorems for the non-conservative Hamilton system under the E1-Nabulsi dynamical system are established, which reveal the relationship between the Noether symmetry and the conserved quantity of the system.

A Conservative Model for Nonlinear Dynamics in a Stratified, Rotating Fluid

We present a set of equations describing the nonlinear dynamics of flows constrained by environmental rotation and stratification (Rossby numbers Ro∈[0.1,0.5] and Burger numbers of order unity). The fluid is assumed incompressible, adiabatic, inviscid and in hydrostatic balance. This set of equations is derived from the Navier Stokes equations (with the above properties), using a Rossby number expansion with second order truncation. The resulting model has the following properties: 1) it can represent motions with moderate Rossby numbers and a Burger number of order unity;2) it filters inertia-gravity waves by assuming that the divergence of horizontal velocity remains small;3) it is written in terms of a single function of space and time (pressure, generalized streamfunction or Bernoulli function);4) it conserves total (Ertel) vorticity in a Lagrangian form, and its quadratic norm (potential enstrophy) at the model order in Rossby number;5) it also conserves total energy at the same order if the work of pressure forces vanishes when integrated over the fluid domain. The layerwise version of the model is finally presented, written in terms of pressure. Integral properties (energy, enstrophy) are conserved by these layerwise equations. The model equations agree with the generalized geostrophy equations in the appropriate parameter regime. Application to vortex dynamics are mentioned.

Fourth-Order Conservative Transport on Overset Grids Using Multi-Moment Constrained Finite Volume Scheme for Oceanic Modeling

With an increase in model resolution,compact high-order numerical advection scheme can improve its effectiveness and competitiveness in oceanic modeling due to its high accuracy and scalability on massive-processor computers.To provide high-quality numerical ocean simulation on overset grids,we tried a novel formulation of the fourth-order multi-moment constrained finite volume scheme to simulate continuous and discontinuous problems in the Cartesian coordinate.Utilizing some degrees of freedom over each cell and derivatives at the cell center,we obtained a two-dimensional(2D)cubic polynomial from which point values on the extended overlap can achieve fourth-order accuracy.However,this interpolation causes a lack of conservation because the flux between the regions are no longer equal;thus,a flux correction is implemented to ensure conservation.A couple of numerical experiments are presented to evaluate the numerical scheme,which confirms its approximately fourth-order accuracy in conservative transportation on overset grid.The test cases reveal that the scheme is effective to suppress numerical oscillation in discontinuous problems,which may be powerful for salinity advection computing with a sharp gradient.

A Positivity-preserving Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Multi-moment Global Transport Model on the Cubed Sphere

A positivity-preserving conservative semi-Lagrangian transport model by multi-moment finite volume method has been developed on the cubed-sphere grid.Two kinds of moments(i.e.,point values(PV moment) at cell interfaces and volume integrated average(VIA moment) value) are defined within a single cell.The PV moment is updated by a conventional semi-Lagrangian method,while the VIA moment is cast by the flux form formulation to assure the exact numerical conservation.Different from the spatial approximation used in the CSL2(conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme with second order polynomial function) scheme,a monotonic rational function which can effectively remove non-physical oscillations is reconstructed within a single cell by the PV moments and VIA moment.To achieve exactly positive-definite preserving,two kinds of corrections are made on the original conservative semi-Lagrangian with rational function(CSLR)scheme.The resulting scheme is inherently conservative,non-negative,and allows a Courant number larger than one.Moreover,the spatial reconstruction can be performed within a single cell,which is very efficient and economical for practical implementation.In addition,a dimension-splitting approach coupled with multi-moment finite volume scheme is adopted on cubed-sphere geometry,which benefitsthe implementation of the 1 D CSLR solver with large Courant number.The proposed model is evaluated by several widely used benchmark tests on cubed-sphere geometry.Numerical results show that the proposed transport model can effectively remove nonphysical oscillations and preserve the numerical nonnegativity,and it has the potential to transport the tracers accurately in a real atmospheric model.

A High-Order Conservative Numerical Method for Gross-Pitaevskii Equation with Time-Varying Coefficients in Modeling BEC

We propose a high-order conservative method for the nonlinear Sehodinger/Gross-Pitaevskii equation with time- varying coefficients in modeling Bose Einstein condensation （BEC）. This scheme combined with the sixth-order compact finite difference method and the fourth-order average vector field method, finely describes the condensate wave function and physical characteristics in some small potential wells. Numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate that our numerical scheme is efficient by the comparison with the Fourier pseudo-spectral method. Moreover, it preserves several conservation laws well and even exactly under some specific conditions.

Using MaxEnt Model to Guide Marsh Conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

Incorporating private and working lands into protected area networks could mitigate the isolation state of protected areas(PAs) and improve the efficiency of conservation.But how to select patches of land for conservation is still a troublesome issue.In this study, the MaxEnt model and irreplaceability index were applied to guide marsh conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China.According to the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model predictions(i.e., the average AUC value = 0.933), the Wuyuer River and Zhalong marshes in the downstream reaches of Wuyuer River are the optimal habitat for the Red-crowned crane and migratory waterfowls.There are 22 marsh patches selected by the patch irreplaceability index for conservation, of which 12 patches had been included in the current network of protected areas.The other 10 patches of marsh(amounting to 1096 km^2) far from human disturbances with high NDVI(up to 0.8) and close distance to water(less than 100 m), which are excluded from the existing network of PAs, should be implemented conservation easement programs to improve the protection efficiency of conservation.Specifically, the marshes at Taha, Tangchi, and Lamadian should be given priority for conservation and restoration to reintroduce migratory waterfowls, as this would lessen the current isolation state of the Zhalong National Nature Reserve.

θ-improved limited tolerance relation model of incomplete information system for evaluation of water conservancy project management modernization

The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.

Monte Carlo Simulation-based Decision-making Model for the Water Conservation and Intermediate Water Recycling of Conservationminded Buildings

Through analyzing the life cycle cost of the water conservation and intermediate water application project of conservation-minded buildings,net present value(NPV) was applied as the index to establish the life cycle economic decision-making model.Monte Carlo simulation was used in demonstration cases,modeling analysis of water-saving projects in conservation-minded and traditional buildings verified rationality and practicability of this model and simulation method.It was to provide a referential and operable method for the decision-making of conservation-minded construction projects,as well as a scientific approach and theoretic basis for the precise decision-making of government organs,decision-making departments and developers.

The Development of a Physical Conservation Fidelity Global Spectral Model-From Dynamic Framework to a Full Model

The fidelity scheme of physical conservation laws has been applied in the dynamic framework of a global spectral model. In this study, a set of diabatic physical processes are also involved. Based on six 30-day numerical integrations of real-time data, we show that the full model is able to reproduce the primary features of global energy cycle and hydrological distribution. Additionally, the root-mean-square error is dramatically decreased when diabatic processes are considered. Another advantage is that the false structure of ＂double Intertropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ）＂ is not seen in the result, although the orecioitation rate becomes lower.

Integrating water use systems and soil and water conservation measures into a hydrological model of an Iranian Wadi system

Water resources are precious in arid and semi-arid areas such as the Wadis of Iran. To sustainably manage these limited water resources, the residents of the Iranian Wadis have been traditionally using several water use systems(WUSs) which affect natural hydrological processes. In this study, WUSs and soil and water conservation measures(SWCMs) were integrated in a hydrological model of the Halilrood Basin in Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model was used to simulate the hydrological processes between 1993 and 2009 at daily time scale. To assess the importance of WUSs and SWCMs, we compared a model setup without WUSs and SWCMs(Default model) with a model setup with WUSs and SWCMs(WUS-SWCM model). When compared to the observed daily stream flow, the number of acceptable calibration runs as defined by the performance thresholds(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)≥0.68, –25%≤percent bias(PBIAS)≤25% and ratio of standard deviation(RSR)≤0.56) is 177 for the Default model and 1945 for the WUS-SWCM model. Also, the average Kling–Gupta efficiency(KGE) of acceptable calibration runs for the WUS-SWCM model is higher in both calibration and validation periods. When WUSs and SWCMs are implemented, surface runoff(between 30% and 99%) and water yield(between 0 and 18%) decreased in all sub-basins. Moreover, SWCMs lead to a higher contribution of groundwater flow to the channel and compensate for the extracted water by WUSs from the shallow aquifer. In summary, implementing WUSs and SWCMs in the SWAT model enhances model plausibility significantly.

A modified discrete element method for concave granular materials based on energy-conserving contact model

The development of a general discrete element method for irregularly shaped particles is the core issue of the simulation of the dynamic behavior of granular materials.The general energy-conserving contact theory is used to establish a universal discrete element method suitable for particle contact of arbitrary shape.In this study,three dimentional(3D)modeling and scanning techniques are used to obtain a triangular mesh representation of the true particles containing typical concave particles.The contact volumebased energy-conserving model is used to realize the contact detection between irregularly shaped particles,and the contact force model is refined and modified to describe the contact under real conditions.The inelastic collision processes between the particles and boundaries are simulated to verify the robustness of the modified contact force model and its applicability to the multi-point contact mode.In addition,the packing process and the flow process of a large number of irregular particles are simulated with the modified discrete element method(DEM)to illustrate the applicability of the method of complex problems.

Palm Oil Production in Malaysia: An Analytical Systems Model for Balancing Economic Prosperity, Forest Conservation and Social Welfare

Since the late 1950’s, the Malaysian human population has nearly quadrupled, increasing pressure on natural resource exploitation to meet domestic needs and to earn foreign exchange from exports. Global demand for Malaysian palm oil in particular had steeply increased since the mid-1970s and by 2013, the commodity was the leading foreign exchange earner. To fulfill and sustain this demand, the country’s economy has steadily shifted bias towards production and associated value addition of palm oil products for export. However, as a consequence, many of Malaysia’s natural tropical forests have been converted to palm oil farming resulting in loss of approximately 10,000 km2 of forest cover over the past twenty-five years, and biodiversity has been displaced or lost. To provide a deeper insight into the interplay amongst key interrelated environmental and socio-economic variables, and a forecast of possible future balance, we used a systems dynamism modeling tool, STELLAR (structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation), to simulate and project how Malaysia could achieve a medium-term sustainable balance or optimization between palm oil production and forest conservation without compromising on human social welfare. The model consisted of four main modules (environmental, economic, social development and human welfare) each with component parameters, and interconnected by input and output loops. Model calibrations, testing and preruns involved existing official 30-year time-series datasets. Subsequently, four scenarios: Environmental conservation;Economic growth under increased global palm oil demand;Economy decline under decreased palm oil demand;and Control condition with little or no change, were selected for simulated projections of future possibilities. Simulation results showed that scenarios and variable interactions that reduce environmental damage would offer the best chance for optimizing the palm oil economy while also minimizing forest loss and promoting citizen social welfare.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

Short-term deformation behavior model of endangered earthen heritage slope after conservation in Jiaohe Ruins

Cliff deformation behavior after conservation is of great significance for evaluating the conservation effect and discovering the dynamical law of soil. Modeling on deformation behavior is beneficial to the quantitative evaluation of interactions between soil mass and structures as well as the forecast. Based on cliff conservation engineering of Jiaohe Ruins （the largest raw soil heritage site in the world）, data of horizontal deformation of the upper cliff were obtained by using Nanrui-made NDW-50 displacement device （precision： 0.01 mm, frequency： 15 min^-l）. Regression analysis indicates that deformation behavior models include exponential growth, linear growth and parabolic growth types, while daily deformation presents more intense periodicity （24 h）. The deformation is less than 1.5 mm during monitoring period, which has no impact on the stability of cliff. Deformation behavior provides the mutual duress and interaction between soil and engineering intervention. In addition, deformation mode attaches tensely to the damage pattern of the cliff. The conclusions are of importance to the stability evaluation of the carrier along Silk Road.

Evaluating the Conservation Efforts of Multi-Projects Using Remote Sensing and Light Use Efficiency Model: A Case of Nyungwe Forest National Park, Rwanda

This paper investigates the effectiveness of conservation efforts in the Nyungwe Forest National Park (Nyungwe). The forest is one of the six key landscapes identified for conservation in the Albertine Rift because it hosts many threatened species. As such, a number of different stakeholders have been involved in its conservation since 1987;yet, studies that emphasize and evaluate the success of these conservation efforts are limited. We combined a rapid and relatively low cost remotely-sensed data and the Light Use Efficiency model to generate forest conservation indicators such as NDVI, forest canopy Net Primary Productivity and carbon sequestered from 1986 to 2010. The influence of topographic and climatic factors on these indicators was examined. The supervised classifier was used to catalogue the area into Forest, Wetland, and Bareland. The forest was the major category (above 90%) of Nyungwe relative to wetland and bareland. Based on degradation intensity, two distinctive periods were realised;the first period spans 8 years (1986-1994) whereas the second spans 16 years (1994-2010). The former degradation intensity period is 10 times higher than the latter period. Although the size of forest recovered up to 90%, the daily NPP and carbon sequestration capacity decreased by 37.1% (i.e. NPP 6.5 Mg tons in 1986 to 4.1 Mg tons in 2010). Areas of the forest that are physically constrained (high altitude) had a higher degradation. Guided by our indicators, there is an overall success in conservation efforts, but efforts were mostly concentrated in accessible areas. Therefore, conservation efforts that aim to respond to degradation of the inaccessible areas of the forest should be stressed in the management plan of the park.

Impact of regional human capital and urban sprawl on forest——based on a forest conservation model

Metropolitan cities in China have become a major economic hubs with an unprecedented increase of land use and decline of environmental resources. Based on a simple and abstract forest conservation model, this paper attempts to explain changes of forest resources caused by urban sprawl. Through the research, it is found that high level of regional human capital is beneficial to curb urban sprawl. In this vein the model presents the urban forest conservation cost strategy at the Nash equilibrium of varied discount factor and parameter control.

A High-Order Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Solver for 3D Free Surface Flows with Sediment Transport on Voronoi Meshes

In this paper,we present a conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme designed for the numeri-cal solution of 3D hydrostatic free surface flows involving sediment transport on unstruc-tured Voronoi meshes.A high-order reconstruction procedure is employed for obtaining a piecewise polynomial representation of the velocity field and sediment concentration within each control volume.This is subsequently exploited for the numerical integration of the Lagrangian trajectories needed for the discretization of the nonlinear convective and viscous terms.The presented method is fully conservative by construction,since the transported quantity or the vector field is integrated for each cell over the deformed vol-ume obtained at the foot of the characteristics that arises from all the vertexes defining the computational element.The semi-Lagrangian approach allows the numerical scheme to be unconditionally stable for what concerns the advection part of the governing equations.Furthermore,a semi-implicit discretization permits to relax the time step restriction due to the acoustic impedance,hence yielding a stability condition which depends only on the explicit discretization of the viscous terms.A decoupled approach is then employed for the hydrostatic fluid solver and the transport of suspended sediment,which is assumed to be passive.The accuracy and the robustness of the resulting conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme are assessed through a suite of test cases and compared against the analytical solu-tion whenever is known.The new numerical scheme can reach up to fourth order of accu-racy on general orthogonal meshes composed by Voronoi polygons.

Load Static Models for Conservation Voltage Reduction in the Presence of Harmonics

The Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) is a technique that aims to achieve the decrease of power consumption as a result of voltage reduction. The customer is supplied with the lowest possible voltage level compatible with the stipulated level by the regulatory agency. International Standards ANSI C84.1-2006 and IEEE std 1250-1995 specify the range of supply voltage to electronics equipment from 0.9 to 1.05 pu of nominal voltage. To analyse the CVR effect in distribution systems with different load characteristics (residential, commercial, industrial or a combination of these), mathematical load models are used. Typically, these equipment/load models are used to analyse load aggregation without any consideration of its nonlinearity characteristics. Aiming to analyse the nonlinear characteristics and its consequences, this paper presents a discussion of the neglected variables as well as the results of a set of measurements of nonlinear loads. Different mathematical models are applied to obtain them for each load. Using these models the load aggregation is evaluated. It is presented that although the models show adequate results for individual loads, the same does not occur for aggregated models if the harmonic contribution is not considered. Consequently, to apply the load model in CVR it is necessary to consider the harmonics presence and the model has to be done using only the fundamental frequency data. The discussion about the causes is done and the models are compared with the measurements.