Non-agricultural Population, Employment and Land:An Econometric Study in an Integrated Framework

Abstract： his paper explored the relationships among nonagricultural population, employment and land in an integrated framework, taking account of rural-urban land conversion into Carlino-Mills＇s model on the regional growth. Two-stage-leastsquares and ordinary-least-squares were employed. Recent data for district （grade） cities in China （from 1999 to 2005） were used. Our results showed that： first, urban population influenced non-agricultural employment, and vice versa, but the evidence that non-agricultural employment influenced urban population was stronger than the evidence that urban population influenced non-agricultural employment; second, urban population and non-agricultural employment both influenced ruralurban land conversion, but the evidence that urban population influenced rural urban land conversion was more stronger than the evidence that non-agricultural employment did. We also found that： first, the employment from the secondary industry influenced urban population in a positive way, and vice versa, but the employment from the tertiary industry influenced urban population in a negative way, and vice versa; second, the employment from the secondary industry influenced rural-urban land conversion in a positive way, but the employment from the tertiary industry influenced rural-urban land conversion in a negative way. We can conclude that the key of urbanization is to speed up the process of non-agricultural employment, especially the employment from the tertiary industry, which might promote non-agricultural population, employment and land harmoniously.

Spatial Pattern of Female Non-agricultural Employment and Its Driving Forces in Guangdong Province,China:A Perspective of Individual and Family-level

Promoting women’s employment is not only the need of social and economic development,but also the historical mission of liberating women.This paper uses data from the 1%Population Sample Survey,taken in Guangdong Province in 2015,to explore how women’s marital status,education,and family environment affect the female non-agricultural employment rate(FNAER)on a county scale using a spatial-lag model.The results show that:1)The female non-agricultural employment rate in counties of Guangdong Province is low,with more than three-quarters of counties having female non-agricultural employment rate less than 50%.Moreover,the spatial distribution of FNAER is uneven,with the high-value areas concentrated in the southeast and the low-value areas mainly distributed in the central and western parts of Guangdong Province.2)From the perspective of industry,there are significant spatial differences among women.In the southeast,women are mainly engaged in the secondary industry,while in the central and western regions,women are mainly engaged in the tertiary industry.3)Women having better skills and more effective support from the elderly can improve the FNAER.Women having lower skills,smaller-scale families,a higher fertility rate,and households with two or more elderly members have a negative effect on the FNAER.4)Public policies suggest that improving women’s education and their family environment,building social welfare facilities,and repairing the family environment will increase the FNAER.

Relationship between Farmland Use Right Circulation and Non-agricultural Employment——Based on Survey Data from Eastern and Western China

Relationship between Chinese rural non-agricultural employment and farmland use circulation has always been a hot research topic without final conclusions.This paper uses survey data of"China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)"covering 1,549 households of 95 villages in Zhejiang and Gansu Province in 2008.According to the data analysis,Zhejiang Province has a higher ratio of rural households leasing out their farmland than Gansu Province has,while the latter has a higher ratio of rural residents going out for earning a living.In both provinces,non-agricultural employment and farmland use circulation show significant positive correlation,but in Gansu,non-agricultural employment of farmers shows no significant positive correlation with rural households leasing out their farmland.The factor shows that for peasants in underdeveloped regions of west China,they rely more on land because of its social security functions,so they are not willing to lease out their land even when they go to cities for earning a living.For local government,it is not appropriate to promote farmland use circulation by depending on the transfer of rural labor forces,fundamental needs of peasants must be taken into consideration.

残疾人按比例就业制度的国际比较观察与本土优化路径

残疾人按比例就业制度在我国实施30余年,其在促进残疾人就业方面效果不彰,主要由于制度总体较为简单粗糙且法密度低、社会对残疾人的认知以医疗模式为主、雇主注重雇佣轻度残疾者以完成雇佣比例、公共部门没有起到应有的表率作用、残疾人就业保障金存在一定的排挤效应。为此,可以从受益对象、义务主体、雇佣比例以及制裁和激励措施等细部规则考察比较域外国家的相关经验,以探寻残疾人按比例就业制度中的常见问题和解决这些问题的替代方法。在此基础上,可以从提升立法的操作性和共识性、确保残疾人权利主体地位、促进重度残疾人融合就业、强化公共部门责任、推动残疾人就业保障金的弹性化征收与使用等方面优化我国残疾人按比例就业制度。

How farmers’non-agricultural employment affects rural land circulation in China?

To clarify the impact of non-agricultural employment on rural land circulation in China,we built logit models using the Chinese Household Income Project 2013 dataset,which includes 18,948 household samples over 15 provinces,126 cities and 234 counties of China in 2013.We use the proportion of non-agricultural income,the proportion of non-agricultural laborers and non-agricultural fixed operating assets to reflect the degree of the households’dependence on agriculture,the degree of the households’laborers committed to non-agricultural employment and the stability of non-agricultural employment,respectively.The results show that the stability of non-agricultural employment is an important reason for farmers to transfer out their land,and an increase in non-agricultural income is the fundamental reason.The proportion of non-agricultural assets has the greatest impact on the decision to transfer land,followed by the proportion of non-agricultural income.Per unit increase in the non-agricultural income ratio has a stronger effect on the transfer-out decision than it does on the transfer-in decision,which is a 0.09 increase of the probability of transfer-out the land and a 0.07 decrease of the probability of transfer-in the land.In terms of regional differences,when considering the impact of non-agricultural employment on the land transfer-out decision,the impacts of non-agricultural income and labor force are the greatest in the Central region.The impact of non-agricultural assets is the greatest in the Eastern region.For the Eastern region,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets and the non-agricultural labor force,and the decision to transfer in land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets.In the Central and Western regions,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural income and the non-agricultural labor force,in that order.The decision to transfer in land in the Central region is not significantly affected by non-agricultural employment.The decision to transfer in land in the Western region is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural labor force and non-agricultural income,in that order.We note that non-agricultural assets have a prominent impact on land transfer,which shows that the stability of non-agricultural employment has an important impact on land transfer decision-making.Vocational training for rural labor forces may be an effective means to promote stable non-agricultural employment and simultaneously facilitate rural land circulation,especially in Central and Western China.

失业保险给付期限差异下的失业持续时间研究

本文对享受不同失业保险给付期限的失业者的失业持续时间差异进行了实证研究。根据工作搜寻理论,应用存活分析方法建立了含有失业保险给付期限因素的失业持续时间模型,并对青岛市失业者登记数据进行了实证研究。结果表明:享受失业保险者的失业持续时间明显长于不享受失业保险者的失业持续时间,在失业保险给付额度相同的条件下,失业保险给付期限与失业持续时间成同向变动关系。

服务业就业占比的决定:“鲍莫尔-富克斯”模型再研究

利用"鲍莫尔-富克斯"模型的基本分析框架,本文构建了解释服务业就业占比的不同于原模型理论观点的两个理论。理论Ⅰ认为劳动生产率的变化通过供给、需求-价格、需求-工资三个渠道影响服务业就业占比。其中,服务业劳动生产率增长滞后会导致服务业就业占比下降。理论Ⅱ对服务业作了消费性和生产性的划分,这样,劳动生产率影响服务业占比的三个影响渠道都有了相当大的变化:(1)劳动生产率提高通过供给渠道导致服务业就业占比下降;(2)需求-价格渠道的作用削弱;(3)需求-工资渠道的作用加强。

服务业就业比重与失业率的关系研究

面对当前中国沉重的就业压力,流行的观点认为,发展服务业能够扩大就业,降低失业率。本文利用世界银行相关经验数据,对服务业就业比重与就业总量、失业率等方面的关系进行计量经济学分析,发现了几个重要关系:就业总量与服务业就业比重存在显著正相关;劳动力总供给和女性劳动参与率与服务业就业比重也存在显著正相关。这一发现有力地解释了普遍存在于市场经济国家的一种现象:服务业就业比重的上升尽管创造了新的就业机会,但失业率却没有因此而下降。

我国农村人力资本投资与非农就业关系的实证研究--基于1978-2007年的经验证据

从公共投资、教育、健康、培训及迁移等角度全面度量了我国1978—2007年农村人力资本投资量,并在此基础上运用向量误差修正模型、协整检验、Granger因果检验对我国农村人力资本投资与非农就业的关系做了实证研究。结果表明,人力资本投资量是非农就业总比重的单向Granger原因,即前者有效地促进了后者的提高,但其影响具有滞后性;人力资本投资量不是农村劳动力当地非农就业比重的Granger原因,即前者并未促进后者的提高,反而更有效地促进了农村劳动力向城市非农产业转移。

从扶持安置到能力开发:残疾人就业保障转型研究

当前,我国在促进残疾人就业方面主要依靠经济扶持和就业安置手段,一定程度上解决了残疾人就业难的问题,基本保障了残疾人就业权利,并已形成相对稳定的残疾人就业格局。但由于就业保障理念滞后、就业保障制度和就业服务体系不完善,残疾人就业难依然存在。应转变残疾人就业保障理念,重视残疾人人力资源开发,从扶持安置向能力开发转型。要建立政府、社会组织、企业和家庭等多元主体协同推进的残疾人就业能力开发体系,以能力开发为导向构建以职业培训、职业康复和扶贫开发为核心的残疾人就业扶持机制,并建立和完善社会化的残疾人就业服务体系以配合和推动残疾人就业保障转型,进而营造残健融合的就业环境,有效提升残疾人就业能力和质量。

行业视角下的第三产业发展与就业协调性研究——基于改进的结构偏离度分析

文章运用改进的结构偏离度,在修正了各行业“产值比重与就业比重合理的结构比例为1”的假定基础上,对2004-2018年我国第三产业细分行业产值结构与就业结构的协调性进行了研究。研究表明,各行业的产值结构与就业结构并不协调,且差异明显。现代服务业中的金融、信息传输软件和信息服务、租赁和商务服务等行业发展较快,对就业拉动效果显著,房地产业隐性失业问题严重;传统服务业中的交通运输仓储和邮政、住宿和餐饮、居民服务等行业劳动力市场已经饱和,但批发和零售业依然有较强的就业吸纳能力;其他公共服务行业除了教育和公共管理和社会组织业以外,普遍存在人员富余的情况,据此提出促进产业与就业协调发展的对策。

欠发达省域农民工持续就业稳定性及影响因素——基于广西壮族自治区639份问卷调查数据

基于广西壮族自治区639份调查数据,以农民工就业的持续时间长短为观察变量,建立Cox比例风险模型,对欠发达省域农民工持续就业的稳定性影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:年龄、婚姻状况及受教育年限对农民工退出城市劳动力市场的影响显著。农民工年龄每增加1岁,退出城市劳动力市场风险减少5.6%;已婚农民工较未婚农民工退出风险减少40.2%;受教育年限对农民工退出城市劳动力市场具有极显著的负影响,受教育年限每延长1年,退出风险降低17.8%。农民工的工作收入以及工作环境影响显著,人均纯收入越高,自评劳动强度越"小",自评技术能力越"好",与工作单位签订就业合同、购买社会保险、接受劳动培训的机会越多,退出风险越低。

发达国家公共服务业的演变趋势及启示

我国当前公共服务业总体水平偏低,发展速度落后于经济增长速度。如何改变这一局面是我国政府亟需解决的问题。从产出的角度出发,通过研究和分析发达国家公共服务业增加值和就业结构的演变趋势,总结发达国家公共服务业的演变规律,进而为我国公共服务业的发展提供借鉴,并指导其发展方向。

政治关联、政府干预与企业用工“双轨制”

减少非正规就业是提升国民就业质量、构建和谐劳动关系的重要基础。利用世界银行2005年中国企业调查数据,着眼于从企业用工"双轨制"的视角考察政治关联对企业雇佣行为的影响。在使用合同工比例刻画企业用工"双轨制"的基础上,研究发现,政治关联有助于减少企业劳动用工"双轨制",且这一影响在政府管制水平较高的地区更显著。同时,政治关联对企业用工"双轨制"的影响与企业要素密集度和产权性质密切相关。政府关联有助于减少劳动密集型企业、国有企业、民营企业的用工"双轨制",而对资本密集型企业、外资企业的用工"双轨制"无显著影响。上述发现不仅深化了我们对经济转型背景下企业政治关联产生的经济效应的理解,也为构建和谐劳动关系提供了有益政策借鉴。

失业保险的参保再就业效应与道德风险效应——城镇职工和迁移工人的异同

我国现有的失业保险制度以城镇职工为目标群体,在向迁移工人覆盖的过程中,迁移工人对其反应自然也会不同于前者。根据中国城乡劳动力流动调查数据(RUMiC),使用Cox比例机会模型,可分别检验是否参加失业保险以及保险金替代率对城镇职工和迁移工人再就业的不同影响。实证分析表明,失业保险在城镇职工存在明显的参保再就业效应,该效应在高年龄、低学历组中更加显著,随着净资产的提高逐步弱化。失业保险在迁移工人中存在较为明显的道德风险效应,该效应在低年龄、高学历组中更加显著,随着净资产的提高逐步弱化。无论是城镇职工还是迁移工人,提高失业保险替代率对再就业的影响随着失业时间呈现先上升后下降的趋势。上述探讨与发现将有助于完善我国失业保险制度,从而促进迁移工人更好融入城市生活。

就业歧视初探

我国在就业领域中存在着严重的就业歧视,诸如年龄、性别、户口等等方面的就业歧视已经严重损害了劳动者的平等就业权。根据就业权产生的依据和满足人们需要的层次的不同,可以将就业权划分为基本就业权和非基本就业权,就业歧视也就相应地划分为基本就业权领域的就业歧视和非基本就业权领域的就业歧视,后者又可以分为由劳动者自身内在因素引起的就业歧视和由劳动者自身外在因素引起的就业歧视。针对以上三种不同类型的就业歧视,主张按照贡献原则进行就业权的分配,在基本就业权领域实行完全平等分配;在非基本领域以劳动者内在因素为依据按照贡献原则进行比例平等分配,以此来建构我国的反就业歧视法,并根据产生不同就业歧视的原因,对拟采取针对措施进行初步探讨。

产业结构调整对城镇劳动就业影响的实证研究:1985-2011——基于山东省的分析

选取1985-2011年三次产业产值的比重和城镇劳动就业的相关时间序列数据,通过单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析、VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析和方差分解,探究了产业结构调整对山东省城镇劳动就业的影响。结果发现:三次产业的产值比重分别与城镇劳动就业之间存在着长期均衡关系。长期内,第一产业对城镇劳动就业具有负向作用,第二产业对城镇劳动就业具有推动作用,第三产业对城镇劳动就业具有正向作用;第一、二产业对山东省城镇劳动就业波动的贡献率随时间推移逐渐增大,第三产业对山东省城镇劳动就业波动的贡献率不是很大。

我国省区三次产业就业结构与劳均资本存量关系分析

在经济发展过程中,就业结构变化和劳均资本存量上升是经济发展质量提高的根本要求。本文搜集并利用近二十年相关数据,计算了我国各省区三次产业就业比例与劳均资本存量。分析发现,各省区第一产业就业比例急剧下降、劳均资本存量迅速增长,劳均资本存量与就业结构变化存在显著的因果关系,资本存量上升促进了就业结构优化;省区之间就业结构、劳均资本存量差距很大。因此,政府应采取均衡投资战略,避免资本过度集中;发达省区应进一步优化资源配置,提高资本产出效率;中西部省区则应加强资本积累、因地制宜发展产业,促进第一产业劳动力就近转移。

现金浮游量利用的风险控制

定量描述了利用现金浮游量的风险 ,给出了在一定风险水平下 。

探索积极就业政策在治理失业中的作用——关于福建省的实证研究

本文采用福建省的失业者抽样调查数据,应用Cox比例风险回归模型验证了积极的就业政策对提高失业者再就业的有效性,并对这种作用进行了测量。分析发现年龄、文化程度、失业前就业单位的性质以及是否参与过积极的就业政策项目的实施,是影响失业者失业持续期长短的主要因素。其中参与过积极就业政策项目的实施可以使失业者再就业几率提高到71%,是否参与过积极就业政策项目的实施成为除文化程度外对失业者失业持续期的最大影响因素。