Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Constructing a Teaching Evaluation Model for the Course of Beijing World Cultural Heritage Based on Dynamic Assessment Theory

The rapid development of international tourism has led to an increasing demand for English professionals. In order to meet this demand, universities have placed greater emphasis on the quality and level of teaching in the courses of tourism English. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation model for tourism English courses, based on the principles of dynamic assessment theory, such as process-orientation, evaluation-teaching integration, and multiple interactions. Taking the course of Beijing World Cultural Heritage as an example, the model is instantiated to demonstrate the feasibility of applying dynamic assessment theory to tourism English courses and this model helps to provide a reference for the evaluation methods of English courses.

ON INFORMATION THEORY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF DIFFERENT SUCCESS FAILURE MODEL UNITS

Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.

Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Hashin Failure Theory Based Damage Assessment Methodology of Composite Tidal Turbine Blades and Implications for the Blade Design

A damage assessment methodology based on the Hashin failure theory for glass fiber reinforced polymer(GFRP)composite blade is proposed. The typical failure mechanisms including the fiber tension/compression and matrix tension/compression are considered to describe the damage behaviors. To give the flapwise and edgewise loading along the blade span, the Blade Element Momentum Theory(BEMT) is adopted. In conjunction with the hydrodynamic analysis, the structural analysis of the composite blade is cooperatively performed with the Hashin damage model. The damage characteristics of the composite blade, under normal and extreme operational conditions,are comparatively analyzed. Numerical results demonstrate that the matrix tension damage is the most significant failure mode which occurs in the mid-span of the blade. The blade internal configurations including the box-beam, Ibeam, left-C beam and right-C beam are compared and analyzed. The GFRP and carbon fiber reinforced polymer(CFRP) are considered and combined. Numerical results show that the I-beam is the best structural type. The structural performance of composite tidal turbine blades could be improved by combining the GFRP and CFRP structure considering the damage and cost-effectiveness synthetically.

Risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush based on improved attribute mathematical theory

Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.

Application of quantification theory in risk assessment of mine flooding

Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in submerged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported that among 601 state-owned mines in China, 285 mines are exposed to water-inrush risks. The water pressure is becoming larger and larger with the increase of mining depth, leading to an increase of water-inrush hazards. Only when the risk of mine flooding is predicted in a reasonable manner, can we take timely and effective measures to prevent mine flooding from taking place. In our investigation quantification（H） theory is used to study the risk prediction problem about mine flooding. By investigating the main factors which affect mine flooding, eight risk assessment items have been identified. The extent of risk is classified into 4 grades. Given the data from different periods in the Feicheng mining area, a prediction model for the risk of mine flooding is established. The test analysis indicates a model correlation coefficient of 0.97 and the incidence of discrimination is as high as 97.37%, which implies that the effect of the model is quite satisfactory. With the help of computers, this method can be widely applied.

Present state,basic theories,methods and progresses of investigation and assessment on marine hazardous geology in China

The achievement progresses of investigation and studies on marine hazardous geology are summarized and presentsd in the late 20 century in China. The importance, research value and present-day studies of marine hazardous geology, a newly developing branch of geoscience, are well expatiated. Several often confused concepts and theories are explained and redefined here. The comment on the means of investigations, assessment of marine hazardous geology, as well as its evolution, innovation, existing questions and future tasks are also introduced and presented. The concepts of 'hazard geology', geohazard', 'map of marine hazard geology', 'integrated evaluaton on seafloor stablity' are respectively discussed, including their definition, research objects, methods and contents. The types and classification of marine hazardous geology, principles and methods of marine hazardous geology map compilation, the assessment methods and models of marine hazardous geology environment and seafloor stability and so on are also discussed.

Algorithm Study and Software Design of District Grid On-Line Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Theory

In the background of the design and construction of Smart Grid Operation Supporting System for District Power Networks, this paper established the weighted fault probability model of the overhead line which is based on equipment operating status, utility theory and fuzzy theory. In this model, the proper membership function is adopted to describe the influence of lightning, wind speed, line ice and temperature, and the outage rate of overhead line, derived from historical statistics, is amended. Based on this model, the power supply risk analysis software is developed to calculate the online risk indicators of district grid, and provide real-time decision support information based on risk theory for scheduling operations personnel.

Translation Quality Assessment： Bridge the Gap between Theory and Practice

Translation Quality Assessment （TQA） is a central concern for both academic research and translation practice. Yet consensus on the issue has almost never been reached among theorists and practitioners. In this paper, a detailed comparison between academic and professional assessment has been made mainly in terms of text type, assessment criteria and models. It is believed that a ＂one size fits all＂ model across academy and industry is neither possible nor necessary. However, the gaps in between could be narrowed down by increasing communication and cooperation between theorists and practitioners, who are advised to turn their focus to translator＇s competence and evaluation process.

Research on the CPA Audit Independence Risk Assessment Based on the Rough Set Theory

The assessment mode of the CPA audit independence risk based on the Rough Set Theory is a risk assessment method and using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, whose aim is to solve the bid management in the process of the Financial Statement Insurance. Firstly, according to the general instance of the accountant office, the experts grade the risk elements to establish the decision-making table; secondly, construct the judgment matrix using the attribution dependence degree of Variable Precision Rough Set to obtain relative importance, and further get the general importance for all of risk elements; Finally, establish the general assessment mode of the audit independence risk.

Research on Ecological Assessment and Dynamic Optimization of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Business Model Based on Full Life Cycle Theory

The rapid development of China’s automobile industry has brought ever-increasing impact on resources,energy and environment,the energy-saving and new energy vehicles come into being accordingly.This article firstly systematically introduces the technical route of energy-saving and new energy vehicles of China,focusing on the key bottleneck problems arising from the construction process of current assessment system of the technical route for energy-saving and new energy vehicles,establishes the energy-saving and new energy vehicle business model assessment index system afterward based on the comparative analysis on energy-saving and new energy vehicle business assessment model and the full life cycle theory,and finally makes prospects and forecasts on vital problems of system boundary,dynamic optimization,simulation system of full life cycle assessment of energy-saving and new energy vehicle.

Fuzzy Risk Assessment Model of Power Transformer Based on Borda Number Theory

The power transformer is the key equipment of transforming voltage and exchanging power in the power system.It's safe and reliable operation directly influences the safe level of the power system.To study the risk assessment of power transformer which is very significant to improve the reliability of the power system,a fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment model of power transformer based on Borda number theory is proposed in this paper.At first,the fault types and risk factors of the power transformer are analyzed.Secondly,the basic framework of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied to quantify the risk factors.And then,Borda number theory is employed to analyze influence degree and occurrence probability of power transformer.At last,the various risk factors impact index and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of power transformer can be easily obtained.Applying this model,the relative importance degree of the risk factors can be horizontally compared according to the numerical index,the engineering staff can directly get the parameters of the transformer risk level and get a good description of the visual expression through using 5 score and similar visual language.

Environmental impact assessment of magnesium alloy automobile hub based on life cycle assessment

In order to find out the impact of aluminum alloy hub replaced by the magnesium alloy hub on environment,the resource consumption,energy consumption and pollutant emission during hub production and their service life of the two types of hubs are investigated based on the life cycle assessment(LCA)theory.The results indicate that the adverse impact on environment can be effectively reduced by the application of magnesium alloy hubs.Compared with aluminum alloy hubs,the global warming potential(GWP)and human toxicity potential(HTP)are reduced by 39.6%and 24.0%,respectively.CO2 is the main pollutant in the life cycles of the two kinds of hubs,which is generated throughout the whole life cycle including the fabrication process and the service life,while the pollutants of particles mainly come from the fabrication stage.Compared with the aluminum alloy hubs,the green effect brought by magnesium alloy hubs is mainly due to the reduction of fuel consumption caused by weight loss.

Ecological risk assessment of the Gannan Plateau,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Desertification, soil salinization and grassland degradation are the major environmental hazards faced by the Gannan Plateau, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Ecological risk assessment plays an important role in formulating environmental management strategies yet little attention to this region. In this study, we established an ecological risk assessment index system based on 30 evaluation indices in the categories of hydrometeorology, ecological environment, ground surface disturbance, and society and economy for the Gannan Plateau. An entropy method was used to calculate an index weight,and subsequently the matter-element method was used together with extension theory to establish a matter-element extension model of ecological risk. We assessed the ecological risk in this region by calculating the degree of association between index layer, system layer and target layer, and the cumulative ecological risk index. The degrees of ecological risk for the counties of the region were determined by using Arc GIS which would represent a spatial heterogeneity of the risk grade in production. Our results showed that the areas of high ecological risk were in Zhouqu County and Zhuoni County, and others were of low risk(Hezuo City, Diebu County, Xiahe County and Lintan County) or intermediate risk(Maqu County). The results of the assessment were in accord with the actual observed situation. Thus, our ecological risk assessment index system is appropriate for this region and suggests that high risk counties need a priori ecological protection. Such research could provide a technological support which would potentially prevent or reduce disasters by establishing an ecological barrier to promote the sustainable development of Gannan Plateau.

Structuring Probability Assessments

A probability assessment framework is outlined that enables decision-makers to determine a probability distribution over possible events or scenarios they could face in the future.The methodology of the analytic hierarchy process can be utilized in the procedures.Bayesian revision accounting for new developments can be used to calculate posterior probabilities using the same procedures.

The impact of farmers’ assessments of risk management strategies on their adoption willingness

Farmers'assessments of risk management strategies and how the assessments influence their willingness to adopt these strategies are poorly understood.This study conducts a structured survey of 469 farmers to investigate how farmers assess both crop insurance and crop price insurance,the impact of the assessments on their adoption willingness,and in particular,the differences in assessments and adoption willingness between crop insurance and crop price insurance.Empirical results show that farmers’assessments on crop insurance can be significantly improved through communication and experience.The most effective way to improve farmers'assessments on crop price insurance is providing adequate information about the insurance products.Furthermore,farmers'adoption willingness would be enhanced by improved assessment of both crop yield and crop price insurance.This study provides the first empirical evidence that farmers have limited information to assess insurance,which significantly influences their willingness to adopt.This finding reflects that the dissemination of insurance policies,the effectiveness of insurance,and the availability of insurance services significantly enable farmers'ability to assess risk management strategies,which potentially increases farmers'willingness to adopt insurance.

Retrospective Environment Carrying Capacity Assessment and Comparison for Marine Reclamation

For improving the managed level and guiding the environmental management of reclamation engineering, a synthetic assessment method based on cloud theory is applied to evaluate the environment carrying capacity of part of Tianjin Port in this paper. This retrospective assessment of carrying capacity aims to obtain the historical development situation of reclamation domain. The research is meaningful and efficient for judging the feasibility of marine reclamation.