Exploiting Virtual Elasticity of Production Systems to Respect OTD—Part 3: Basic Considerations for Modelling CPPS Characterized by Non-Ergodic Order Entry and Non-Deterministic Product-Mix for Fully Flexible Addressable Workstations

The recently experienced hype concerning the so-called “4th Industrial Revolution” of production systems has prompted several papers of various subtopics regarding Cyber-Phdysical Production Systems (CPPS). However, important aspects such as the modelling of CPPS to understand the theory regarding the performance of highly non-ergodic and non-deterministic flexible manufacturing systems in terms of Exit Rate (ER), Manufacturing Lead Time (MLT), and On-Time Delivery (OTD) have not yet been examined systematically and even less modeled analytically. To develop the topic, in this paper, the prerequisites for modelling such systems are defined in order to be able to derive an explicit and dedicated production mathematics-based understanding of CPPS and its dynamics: switching from explorative simulation to rational modelling of the manufacturing “physics” led to an own and specific manufacturing theory. The findings have led to enouncing, among others, the Theorem of Non-Ergodicity as well as the Batch Cycle Time Deviation Function giving important insights to model digital twin-based CPPS for complying with the mandatory OTD.

LEAST SQUARES TYPE ESTIMATION FOR DISCRETELY OBSERVED NON-ERGODIC GAUSSIAN ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK PROCESSES

In this article, we consider the drift parameter estimation problem for the nonergodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined as dXt = OXtdt + dGt, i > 0 with an unknown parameter θ> 0, where G is a Gaussian process. We assume that the process {xt,t≥ 0} is observed at discrete time instants t1=△n,…, tn = n△n, and we construct two least squares type estimators θn and θn for θ on the basis of the discrete observations ,{xti,i= 1,…, n} as →∞. Then, we provide sufficient conditions, based on properties of G, which ensure that θn and θn are strongly consistent and the sequences √n△n(θn-θ) and √n△n(θn-θ) are tight. Our approach offers an elementary proof of [11], which studied the case when G is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H∈(1/2, 1). As such, our results extend the recent findings by [11] to the case of general Hurst parameter H∈(0,1). We also apply our approach to study subfractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and bifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.

Extraction of Signals Buried in Noise: Non-Ergodic Processes

In this paper, we propose extraction of signals buried in non-ergodic processes. It is shown that the proposed method extracts signals defined in a non-ergodic framework without averaging or smoothing in the direct time or frequency domain. Extraction is achieved independently of the nature of noise, correlated or not with the signal, colored or white, Gaussian or not, and locations of its spectral extent. Performances of the pro-posed extraction method and comparative results with other methods are demonstrated via experimental Doppler velocimetry measurements.

Exploiting Virtual Elasticity of Manufacturing Systems to Respect OTD—Part 2: Post-Optimality Conditions for the Cases of Ergodic and Non-Ergodic Order Rate with Deterministic Product-Mix

Respecting the on-time delivery (OTD) for manufacturing orders is mandatory. However, for non-JIT Batch & Queue Push-manufacturing systems, the compliance of OTD is not intrinsically guaranteed. As an OTD related manufacturing theory is largely missing it is crucial to understand and formalize the necessary conditions of OTD compliance for complex production environments for maximum exploitation of the production capacity. This paper evaluates the conditions of post-optimality while being OTD compliant for production systems, which are characterized by stochastic order rate and a deterministic product-mix. Instead of applying discrete event simulation to explore the real case-by-case order scheduling optimization for OTD compliance, a Cartesian approach is followed. This enables to define theoretically the solution space of order backlog for OTD, which contributes to developing further manufacturing theory. At the base stands the recently defined new concept of virtual manufacturing elasticity by reducing lead-time to increase virtually production capacity. The result has led to defining additional two corollaries to the OTD theorem, which sets up basic OTD theory. Apart from defining the post-optimal requirements to guarantee for orders at least a weak solution for OTD compliance, this paper reveals that for a deterministic product-mix a non-ergodic order arrival rate can be rescheduled into an ergodic order input rate to the shopfloor if the virtual elasticity T is large enough, hence the importance of having fast and flexible production lines.