The Operational Forecasting of Total Precipitation in Flood Seasons (April to September) of 5 Years (1983-1987)

Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION We have discovered that there exists a good corresponding relationship between theanomalous axes of soil temperature at a depth of 1.6m in winter (December to February) andprecipitations in following flood season (Tang et al., 1982a). We have also designed a simplethermodynamical model and applied it to the forecasting of precipitations in the flood season(Tang et al., 1982 b,c). The practical forecast started from 1975. Before 1980, however, therewere only 40-50 stations in China for measuring the soil temperature at a 1.6m depth. Since1980, the stations have been increased to a total of about 180, but no available mean valueshad been obtained from newly added stations before 1982. Therefore the analysis and map-ping of anomalies of soil temperature was not performed until 1983, and from then on theprecision of analysis has been greatly improved. The following is the actual situation of forecast in five years from 1983 to 1987.

A quantitative model for danger degree evaluation of staged operation of earth dam reservoir in flood season and its application

Based on the natural disaster risk evaluation mode, a quantitative danger degree evaluation model was developed to evaluate the danger degree of earth dam reservoir staged operation in the flood season. A formula for the overtopping risk rate of the earth dam reservoir staged operation was established, with consideration of the joint effect of flood and wind waves in the flood sub-seasons with the Monte Carlo method, and the integrated overtopping risk rate for the whole flood season was obtained via the total probability approach. A composite normalized function was used to transform the dam overtopping risk rate into the danger degree, on a scale of 0-1. Danger degree gradating criteria were divided by four significant characteristic values of the dam overtopping rate, and corresponding guidelines for danger evaluation are explained in detail in this paper. Examples indicated that the dam overtopping danger degree of the Chengbihe Reservoir in China was 0.33-0.57, within the range of moderate danger level, and the flood-limiting water level （FLWL） can be adjusted to 185.00 m for the early and main flood seasons, and 185.00-187.50 m for the late flood season. The proposed quantitative model offers a theoretical basis for determination of the value of the danger degree of an earth dam reservoir under normal operation as well as the optimal scheduling scheme for the reservoir in each stage of the flood season.

A Typical Mode of Seasonal Circulation Transition: A Climatic View of the Abrupt Transition from Drought to Flood over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in the Late Spring and Early Summer of 2011

In this study, the seasonal transition of precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yang-tze River Valley (YRV) from late spring to early summer is investigated. The results show that the seasonal transition of precipitation exhibits multi-modes. One of these modes is characterized by an abrupt transition from drought to flood (ATDF) over the middle and lower reaches of the YRV in the seasonal transition of precipitation. It is shown that the ATDF event from May to June 2011 is simply one prominent case of the ATDF mode. The ATDF mode exhibits an obvious decadal variability. The mode has occurred more frequently since 1979, and its amplitude has apparently strengthened since 1994. From the climatic view, the ATDF mode configures a typical seasonal circulation transition from winter to summer, for which the winter circulations are prolonged, and the summer circulations with the rainy season are built up early over the YRV.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Characteristics Analysis on Short-Time Heavy Rainfall during the Flood Season in Shanxi Province, China

In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic research on short-term heavy precipitation events in Shanxi Province. Based on hourly precipitation data during the flood season (May to September) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi, China in 1980-2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season are analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the short-time heavy rainfall in the flood season in Shanxi Province is mainly at the grade of 20 - 30 mm/h, with an average of 97 stations having short-time heavy rainfall each year, accounting for 89% of the total stations. The short-time heavy rainfall mainly concentrated in July and August, and the maximal rain intensity in history appeared at 23 - 24 on June 17, 1991 in Yongji, Shanxi is 91.7 mm/h. During the flood season, the short-time heavy rainfalls always occur at 16 - 18 pm, and have slightly different concentrated time in different months. The main peaks of June, July and August are at 16, 17 and 18 respectively, postponed for one hour. Short-time heavy rainfall overall has the distribution that the south is more than the north and the east less than the west in Shanxi area. In the last 36 years, short-time heavy rainfall has a slight increasing trend in Shanxi, but not significant. There is a clear 4-year period of oscillation and inter-decadal variation. It has a good correlation between the total precipitation and times of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season.

PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN FLOOD SEASON OVER CHINA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NI■O/SOUTHERN OSCILIATION

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (EI Nino year) and cold phase (La Nina year), as well as between the patterns in EI Nino years and their following you. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of EI Nino events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of EI Nino events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal lainfall in flood season of the onset years of in Nina events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Nina events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.

INFLUENCE OF SEA－AIR INTERACTION ON THEDISCHARGE OF FLOOD SEASON IN THEUPPER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

On the method of correlation analysis the poper begins with searching theSST (Sea Surface Temperature) and circulation features of some regions with close correlation to the discharge of the flood season (from June to September) in the upperreaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, then discusses the characteristics of sea-airinteraction and the relations between the sea-air interaction and the discharge of theflood season,after that analyzes the possible mechanisms through which the main searegions affect atmospheric circulation, and of the influence of the circulation changes onthe discharge of the flood season.

Seasonal Prediction Experiments of the Summer Droughts and Floods during the Early 1990′s in East Asia with Numerical Models

It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmopsheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM including a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, especially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O. K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.

Climatic Characteristics of Rainstorm during the Flood Season in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2012

Based on daily precipitation data at 35 meteorological observation stations during the flood season in Shandong Province from 1961 to2012,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of number of rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity were analyzed by conventional statistical methods. The results show that the number of rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity during the flood season in Shandong showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2012,but the decreases were not statistically significant at the 0. 05 level. Annual average number of rainstorm days during the flood season in Shandong over the past 52 years was 2.2d and had the changing periods of 3. 4 and quasi-8 a; the annual average rainstorm intensity was 67. 8 mm/d and had the changing periods of 2. 3,3. 3,6. 9 and quasi-12. 0 a. From 1961 to 2012,there was no abrupt climatic change in the number of rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity during the flood season in Shandong,and the number of rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity during the flood season in Shandong reduced from the middle and late 1970 s to the late 1980 s. The annual average number of rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity during the flood season in Shandong from 1961 to 2012 rose gradually from the northwest to the southeast. Rainstorm( continuous rainstorm) during the flood season appeared frequently,and rainstorm intensity was high in the south of Shandong Province,the south and east of Shandong Peninsula.

Frequency, Intensity Statistics and Cyclical Analysis of Rainstorm in the Flood Season in Guangzhou

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variations of rainstorm frequency, intensity and period in the flood season in Guangzhou. [Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in Guangzhou City during 1951-2010, the interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of rainstorm in the flood season in recent 60 years were analyzed by using the linear regression analysis, correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and so on. Moreover, the relationship between the rainstorm in the flood season and annual average temperature was analyzed. [Result] In recent 60 years, the rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou respectively increased with 6.23 mm/10 a and 0.27 d/10 a linear trends. The most rainstorm days (rainfall) was in 2001 and was 15 d (1 085.7 mm). There was no rainstorm in the least year (1990). The interannual variations of rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou obviously increased in recent 20 years. The decadal and interannual variations of rainstorm in the prior and latter flood seasons had the difference. The trend in the prior flood season increased and in the latter flood season slightly decreased. The positive correlation between the rainstorm days and the annual average temperature in the flood season in Guangzhou was significant, and the relative coefficient was 0.22, which passed α=0.02 significance level test. The total rainstorm days in the prior flood season in Guangzhou City mainly had 4.2-year interannual and 52.9-year interdecadal periodic variations. The total rainstorm days in the latter flood season mainly had 5.5-year interannual and 18.4-year interdecadal periodic variations. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the precipitation forecast in the flood season.

Precipitation Change and Agricultural Drought and Flood Degrees during Crop Growth Season in Binzhou City

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze precipitation change and agricultural drought and flood degrees during crop growth season in Binzhou.[Method]Based on monthly rainfall and average temperature data at Binzhou meteorological observatory during March-November of1981-2010,by using linear regression,climatic tendency rate and dry-wet coefficient,precipitation change and agricultural drought and flood degrees during crop growth season of the past 30 years in Binzhou were analyzed from natural precipitation tendency change and satisfaction degree of agricultural water demand during crop growth season.[Result]In the past 30 years,precipitation during growth season in Binzhou presented increasing tendency.Spring,summer and autumn precipitation all increased somewhat,especially summer precipitation.Monthly average rainfall distribution was very uneven,and rainfall in July and August was more.In the past 30 years,average dry-wet coefficient K value during crop growth season in Binzhou was 0.60,it overall belonged to moderate drought climate type,and occurrence frequency of drought was 97%.It belonged to serious drought climate type in spring and autumn and light drought climate type in summer.Dry-wet coefficient presented rising tendency,illustrating that climate was developing toward wet direction.Seen from mean over the years,except humid in July,it was over light drought in other months.[Conclusion]Climate was overall arid during crop growth season in Binzhou,but precipitation somewhat increased in the past 30 years.Therefore,we suggested that artificial rainfall work should be enhanced.

PREDICTION OF FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST CHINA BASED ON IMPROVED PSO-PLS

In order to achieve the best predictive effect of the Partial Least Squares(PLS) regression model, Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) algorithm is applied to automatically filter the optimal subset of a set of candidate factors of PLS regression model in this study. An improved version of the Particle Swarm Optimization-Partial Least Squares(PSO-PLS) regression model is applied to the station data of precipitation in Southwest China during flood season.Using the PSO-PLS regression method, the prediction of flood season precipitation in Southwest China has been studied. By introducing the precipitation period series of the mean generating function(MGF) extension as an alternative factor, the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model was also built up to improve the prediction results.Randomly selected 10%, 20%, 30% of the modeling samples were used as a test trial; random cross validation was conducted on the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model. The results show that the accuracy of PSO-PLS regression model and the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model are better than that of the traditional PLS regression model.The training results of the three prediction models with regard to the regional and single station precipitation are considerable, whereas the forecast results indicate that the PSO-PLS regression method and the MGF improved PSO-PLS regression method are much better than the traditional PLS regression method. The MGF improved PSO-PLS regression model has the best forecast performance on precipitation anomaly during the flood season in the southwest of China among three models. The average precipitation(PS score) of 36 stations is 74.7. With the increase of the number of modeling samples, the PS score remained stable. This shows that the PSO algorithm is objective and stable. The MGF improved PSO-PLS regression prediction model is also showed to have good prediction stability and ability.

Application of Wavelet Fractal Dimension Estimation Method on Flood Season Staged

Floodwater utilization is an important content in flood management. Controlling the limit water level of reservoir by stage is one of important contents in the management of multi-purpose reservoir’s floodwater utilization for the sake of more benefits, and reasonable division of stage in flood season is precondition of controlling the limit water level by stage. On the background of Three Gorges Reservoir floodwater utilization management and on the foundation of self-similarity of hydrological series, determining the number of flood season staged in base of conventional statistical method, choosing the Db4 wavelet and Mallat algorithm, the computation mode of wavelet fractal dimension estimation method is proposed and each stage’s fractal dimension is computed, then the final flood season staged is obtained. The results demonstrate the stages of Three Gorges Reservoir determined by using wavelet fractal dimension method are consistent with that from conventional method, but the fractal dimension results by former method are easier, more stable and objective which ensures the feasibility of the wavelet fractal dimension method applying in flood season staged. The obtained results are the base of deep coping with floodwater utilization management, also are the decision-making gist for the flood forecast, flood control and water allocation reasonably of Three Gorges Reservoir.

Drought and Flood Analysis and Impact on Food Production in Fushun

Based on monthly precipitation data during 1961-2008 in 50 stations in Fushun,drought and flood indicators of three counties were calculated with Z index method. The geographical and seasonal distribution characteristics of Fushun were analyzed,and so was the impact of droughts and floods on food production. It shows that,since 1961,there are 7 poor harvest years in Fushun,with quadrennial caused by continuous seasonal floods or droughts,two years by year drought,one year by summer flood.

Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from E1 Nifio to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong E1 Nifio in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 system.The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression.The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation.The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months.However,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts.The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured.This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

Stand dynamics of the drought-affected floodplain forests of Araguaia River,Brazilian Amazon

Background： The floodplain forests of Araguaia River, a clear-water river in the southeastern Amazon（Tocantins State, Brazil）, are characterized by seasonal flooding up to 3.5 m height, low nutrient levels in the water, and seasonal drought periods of 4–5 months.Methods： We studied the forest dynamics（tree diameter growth, tree mortality and recruitment） of this unique forest ecosystem over a 5-year period by repeated censuses in 12 permanent plots established along a flooding gradient.Results： The cumulative basal area in the plots increased by 0.84（±0.45） m^2·ha^-1·yr^-1（mean ±SD） in the annual y-flooded（AF） plots in lower terrain and by 0.69（±1.00） m^2·ha^-1·yr^-1 in the higher non-annual y flooded（NAF） plots, corresponding to an aboveground biomass increase of 0.81（±0.57） and 0.69（±1.58） Mg·ha^-1·yr^-1 in the AF and NAF plots, indicating a recent carbon sink in the biomass. Mean diameter growth rate was 1.8（±0.44） mm·yr^-1 in the AF and 2.0（±0.56） mm·yr^-1 in the NAF plots（corresponding to a coarse wood production of 1.53（±1.29） and 2.02（±0.52） Mg·ha^-1·yr^-1）,indicating no flooding effect on radial growth. Mean mortality rates in the 5-year period were 1.9（±0.37）·yr^-1 in the AF plots and 1.8（±0.87）%·yr^-1 in the NAF plots with no differences along the flooding gradient. Highest mortalities were registered in the AF plots for the 10–20 cm dbh class（2.4%·yr^-1）, likely as a consequence of flooding,and in the NAF plots for the 40–50 cm dbh class（3.0%·yr^-1）, probably mainly caused by ENSO-related droughts.Conclusions： We conclude that these drought-affected tropical floodplain forests have a lower standing biomass and aboveground productivity than central Amazonian floodplain forests in more humid climates, and the imprint of the flooding gradient on stand dynamics is relatively weak, which may result from the lower flooding height and the interaction of flooding with low nutrient supply and periodic drought.

GIS as a Tool in Analyzing Flood Occurrence and Its Impact on Ikere Ekiti, Ekiti State Nigeria

Flood is any flow of water, which overflows the natural or artificial banks of a body of water. Flooding is one of the fundamental environmental challenges that results from interaction between man and his environment. In Nigeria, Flooding is one of the most common environmental hazards and there is increasing vulnerability of populations and infrastructure to flooding and flood related hazards. This study used GIS as a tool to analyze the cause and the impact of flooding in the study area. The study used both primary and secondary data, through a questionnaire, geographic information system and remote sensing. The result showed that the nature of the basin in the study area resulted to the high volume of water in the major river (River Osun) during raining season, which resulted to overflow across its bank. Fieldwork shows that the river overflows its bank at 500 meters to the north and the south and the GIS analysis shows that over 1000 houses get affected at any point of flooding occurrences, hence the width of the river is less than 8 meters and the depth on the average in less than 10 meter over the bridge of the River Osun. The study recommends methods by which flooding could be controlled in the study area through regular dredging, effective waste management and drainage control.

Floodwater utilization of the Three Gorges Project

Floods are both risks and resources. Floodwater utilization is an important part of flood management. Considering the rising shortage of water resources, serious water pollution, and undersupply of electric power, it’s imperative to strengthen flood management. In light of the hydrological characteristics of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) on the Yangtze River in P. R. China, we investigated the necessity and feasibility of TGP floodwater utilization, proprosed dynamic control of limited water level during flood season of the reservoir and basin-wide integrated floodwater management as strategies, and identified problems that might occur in practice.

近50年滇池流域汛期降水时空演变特征分析

以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结果表明:(1)近50年来,滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势,中部地区降水呈增加趋势,盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势;(2)汛期降水年际变化存在31 a的主周期,中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区;(3)汛期降水的中心整体呈现向东部、南部方向偏移的态势,且移动趋势显著;(4)滇池流域旱涝频发,尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有参考意义。