The Extreme Machine Learning Actuarial Intelligent Agricultural Insurance Based Automated Underwriting Model

The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.

An Extension of One-Period Nash Equilibrium Model in Non-Life Insurance Markets

This paper deals with an extension of the one-period model in non-life insurance markets (cf. [1]) by using a transition probability matrix depending on some economic factors. We introduce a multi-period model and in each period the solvency constraints will be updated. Moreover, the model has the inactive state including some uninsured population. Similar results on the existence of premium equilibrium and sensitivity analysis for this model are presented and illustrated by numerical results.

A Statistical Analysis of Intensities Estimation on the Modeling of Non-Life Insurance Claim Counting Process

This study presents an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts relating to a specified time. The objective of this study is to estimate the parameters in non-life insurance claim counting process, including the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) and the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity. We use the estimating function, the zero mean martingale (ZMM) as a procedure of parameter estimation in the insurance claim counting process. Then, Λ(t) , the compensator of is proposed for the number of claims in the time interval . We present situations through a simulation study of both processes on the time interval . Some examples of the situations in the simulation study are depicted by a sample path relating to its compensator Λ(t). In addition, an example of the claim counting process illustrates the result of the compensator estimate misspecification.

A Bayesian Inference of Non-Life Insurance Based on Claim Counting Process with Periodic Claim Intensity

The aim of this study is to propose an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts related to the insurance claim counting process, including the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity and a beta-shaped intensity. The estimating function, such as the zero mean martingale (ZMM), is used as a procedure for parameter estimation of the insurance claim counting process, and the parameters of model claim intensity are estimated by the Bayesian method. Then,Λ(t), the compensator of N(t) is proposed for the number of claims in a time interval (0,t]. Given the process over the time interval (0,t]., the situations are presented through a simulation study and some examples of these situations are also depicted by a sample path relating N(t) to its compensatorΛ(t).

Optimization of Actuarial Model for Individual Account of Rural Social Pension Insurance

This paper firstly analyzes different payment methods of individual account and the pension replacement rate under the pension payment method.Results show that it will be more scientific and reasonable for the individual account of new rural social pension insurance to adopt the actuarial model of payment according to proportion of income and periodic prestation at variable amount.The Guiding Opinions on New Rural Social Pension Insurance sets forth individual account should be paid at fixed amount,and the insured voluntarily selects payment level as per criteria set by the State.The monthly calculation and distribution amount of pension is the total amount of individual account divided by139.Therefore,it should start from continuation of policies and make adjustment of payment level in accordance with growth of per capita net income of rural residents.When condition permits,it is expected to realize transition to payment as per income proportion and periodic prestation at variable amount.

Automated Actuarial Data Analytics-Based Inflation Adjusted Frequency Severity Loss Reserving Model

In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.

A Research on Whole Life Insurance

The formulas of premiums and premium reserves of a kind of mixed whole life insurance were obtained by the methods of actuarial science. Then we take a typical policy of whole life insurance in present Chinese market as an example to analyze its expense design and predict its market prospects.

Modelling Insurance Losses with a New Family of Heavy-Tailed Distributions

The actuaries always look for heavy-tailed distributions to model data relevant to business and actuarial risk issues.In this article,we introduce a new class of heavy-tailed distributions useful for modeling data in financial sciences.A specific sub-model form of our suggested family,named as a new extended heavy-tailed Weibull distribution is examined in detail.Some basic characterizations,including quantile function and raw moments have been derived.The estimates of the unknown parameters of the new model are obtained via the maximum likelihood estimation method.To judge the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators,a simulation analysis is performed in detail.Furthermore,some important actuarial measures such as value at risk and tail value at risk are also computed.A simulation study based on these actuarial measures is conducted to exhibit empirically that the proposed model is heavy-tailed.The usefulness of the proposed family is illustrated by means of an application to a heavy-tailed insurance loss data set.The practical application shows that the proposed model is more flexible and efficient than the other six competing models including(i)the two-parameter models Weibull,Lomax and Burr-XII distributions(ii)the three-parameter distributions Marshall-Olkin Weibull and exponentiated Weibull distributions,and(iii)a well-known four-parameter Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution.

On the Issue of Commercial Insurance and Commercial Insurance Market in the Slovak Republic

The article is concentrated on the Slovak commercial insurance, commercial insurance market, non-life insurance, and international risks on the Slovak Republic. Since 1 May 2004, the Slovak insurance market has been part of the uniform European Union insurance market, which includes over 5,000 insurance companies. After Slovakia’s admission to the European Union, several legislative changes have been adopted in the area of commercial insurance industry, which also influenced non-life insurance and the insurance of international risks as part of non-life risks. The most recent act in the area of commercial insurance mentioned in the paper is the Act of the National Council SR No. 39/2015 Coll. on Insurance, in which there are legislative changes in life and also non-life insurance. Basic terms are defined and commented on in the first two chapters （Lowry, Rawlings, ＆ Merkin, 2015）. The nature of international risks as part of non-life risks is described in the second chapter. International risks are classified in the third chapter; international risks are subdivided in the paper into commercial or trade risks, political and economic risks, and special types of risks.

Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

On the Issue of Commercial Insurance Market as in the Slovak Republic

The insurance industry in the Slovak Republic has become an important dynamically developing area of economy.Insurance affects all the activities into the national economy,touching every company,business,citizen,society,and foreign countries.The Slovak insurance market is developed.As at 31.12.2017,there operated 21 commercial insurance companies on the Slovak commercial insurance market.The evolution of the market in life insurance in recent years is more dynamic than in the non-life insurance.

Analysis of fund gap on enterprise worker＇ s basic endowment insurance in Hebei province

Using actuarial techniques, the study estimates the fired gap of pooling account and individual account respectively on on enterprise worker＇ s basic endowment insurance in Hebei province. And based on the estimation, the study puts forward four policy suggestions： expand the coverage of the pension scheme; revised the number of months oft he annuities; increase the level of interest; improve financial support.

“门诊共济”改革背景下南京市职工医保统筹基金的可持续性研究

以人口老龄化的南京市为例,通过构建保险精算模型的方法,预测并分析门诊共济保障机制改革对南京市2021—2035年期间职工医保统筹基金收支、结余的影响,模拟延迟退休和扩大筹资、支付方式改革等政策对提升医保基金可持续性的影响,基于此提出政策建议。研究发现:按现行门诊共济方案,到2032年,南京市职工医保统筹基金将发生穿底风险;与现行政策相比,实施男女同龄退休将使得累计结余亏空时间点推迟一年;实行扩大筹资政策,在职和退休职工个人均向统筹基金缴费后,统筹基金在中期内将消除亏损风险;实施支付方式改革政策,也能使统筹基金在中期内可持续发展。结论:在人口老龄化背景下实施的门诊共济改革可能导致统筹基金出现支付压力,长期来看需要组合多种配套政策,才能实现统筹基金的可持续发展。

中国智能网联车险之现实困境与创新路径

在智慧交通新时代,智能网联车险面临着新的机遇和挑战。本文分析了国内外智能网联车险的发展现状和特征;从智能网联汽车衍生的新兴风险、车险市场经营管理面临的挑战、车险产品和服务的创新需求三方面,探讨了智能网联车险发展的现实困境。基于国外智能网联车险模式的经验借鉴,提出政府、监管部门、保险公司与科技公司合作共赢,进一步完善智能网联车险相关法律体系,创新监管模式,完善车险生态环境,提供优质车险产品与服务等政策建议。

我国城镇职工养老保险精算因子测算与比较——基于退休制度改革的探讨

为缓解老龄化趋势下养老金支出不断增加的压力,以我国城镇职工养老保险体系的可持续发展为着眼点,探讨延迟退休的养老金待遇给付标准设计。建立养老金财富精算模型,从精算中性的视角测算我国9个省份精算因子Φ值和α值,并测算利率变化对精算中性调整系数α值的影响。实证结果表明,在北京、海南、河南和黑龙江,按照目前的养老金给付制度,延迟退休会增加参保人的养老金财富。若改革退休制度、延迟退休年龄,对不同退休年龄参保人养老金待遇的给付标准可以参考α值设定。

辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销的基金影响

本文利用GM(1,1)模型预测2024-2030年全国职工医保基金和居民医保基金收支状况,在考虑辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销范围的现实背景下,构建精算模型测算其分别对职工医保基金和居民医保基金运行状况的影响。研究发现:第一,测算期内职工医保基金总体运行状况良好,至2030年累计结存为120245.28亿元,但居民医保基金2030年开始出现穿底风险,赤字额为803.26亿元;第二,即使职工参保群体的渗透率较高,但辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销范围对居民参保群体需求释放更为明显,即参加居民医保的育龄夫妇接受辅助生殖治疗的增量更高。第三,当辅助生殖技术渗透率不变时,测算期内因辅助生殖技术带来的新生儿总量为299.52万人。提高渗透率会使新生儿数量显著增加,渗透率低、中、高增长方案下测算期内新生儿总量分别增加63.24万人、110.17万人、157.10万人,可见辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销范围有利于缓解我国生育率下降的局面。第四,同渗透率增长方案下,居民医保基金在辅助生殖技术的支出高于职工医保基金,且辅助生殖技术给居民医保基金带来的支出压力远高于职工医保基金。渗透率高增长方案下,2030年因辅助生殖技术带来的职工医保基金支出仅占基金支出的0.24%,但居民医保基金该占比达0.72%,约是职工医保基金支出压力的3倍。第五,若不对居民医保制度进行政策干预以维持基金精算平衡,辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销范围给居民医保基金带来的支出最终会转嫁为财政负担。以渗透率高增长方案为例,2030年财政弥补居民医保基金赤字的负担从803.26亿元上升至1502.68亿元。针对以上结论,本文从如何减少不孕不育患者、提高辅助生殖技术的渗透率和成功率、促进居民医保基金可持续以及防范辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销范围可能产生的道德风险等角度提出相关建议,以更好地为完善辅助生殖技术纳入医保报销的相关措施提供参考,有助于平衡社会效益与医保基金的可持续发展。

保险与精算

扼要介绍了现代保险的发展历程和现状，阐述了保险与数学、统计学和计算机的关系，分析了目前与保险有关的研究方向。现代保险作为市场经济中的一个重要产业不只是一种社会补偿手段，而更多地具有产业性和商品性。在市场竞争的环境中，数理统计方法的计算和分析是科学合理地进行保险经营。

我国城镇职工基本养老保险金征缴的不利因素研究——基于统筹账户精算视角

目前城镇职工基本养老保险资金筹集中新问题新矛盾层出不穷,成为我国养老保险制度改革和发展的瓶颈。追根究底,现有制度在调动缴费积极性方面有所欠缺。运用精算方法,估算城镇职工基本养老保险制度的转轨过程中统筹账户的财务状况,可以对统筹层次的提升、账户安全、基金资产的期限管理以及缴费率的确定有一个更准确的预期,从而提升制度的吸引力,使资金筹措更加有效便捷。

城镇企业基本养老保险缴费率优化路径分析

本文引入修正的两期世代交叠模型,根据中国东部、西部、中部与东北的区域划分,结合6种情景模拟,研究确定了15%养老保险最优缴费率水平,从而为城镇企业缴费率的动态调整优化提供了福利经济效率标准。基于第六次人口普查数据,构建了城镇社会统筹养老金精算平衡模型,设计了企业缴费率动态调整优化路径。这一调整路径可以实现企业缴费率向15%福利最大化标准渐进收敛,能够达到养老保险制度内部效率与外部效率的统一。

一种家庭联合保险的双随机模型

建立了一种家庭联合保险的双随机模型。模型包括夫妻终身寿险,子女早亡补偿保险,夫妻养老金及子女不足18周岁而父母早逝时给子女的抚养保险金。随机利率采用Wiener过程建模,给出了纯保费精算现值的计算公式。