Ingredients-based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Combined Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Short-Range Forecasting:An Improved Scheme

Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.

A weighted averaging method for signal probability of logic circuit combined with reconvergent fan-out structures

By analyzing the structures of circuits,a novel approach for signal probability estimation of very large-scale integration(VLSI)based on the improved weighted averaging algorithm(IWAA)is proposed.Considering the failure probability of the gate,first,the first reconvergent fan-ins corresponding to the reconvergent fan-outs were identified to locate the important signal correlation nodes based on the principle of homologous signal convergence.Secondly,the reconvergent fan-in nodes of the multiple reconverging structure in the circuit were identified by the sensitization path to determine the interference sources to the signal probability calculation.Then,the weighted signal probability was calculated by combining the weighted average approach to correct the signal probability.Finally,the reconvergent fan-out was quantified by the mixed-calculation strategy of signal probability to reduce the impact of multiple reconvergent fan-outs on the accuracy.Simulation results on ISCAS85 benchmarks circuits show that the proposed method has approximate linear time-space consumption with the increase in the number of the gate,and its accuracy is 4.2%higher than that of the IWAA.

系统故障演化过程熵及其受逻辑关系的影响研究

为研究系统故障演化过程中系统功能状态变化的混乱程度,引入熵概念提出了系统故障演化过程熵(简称演化熵)。演化熵是演化过程某时刻的系统功能状态混乱程度,是系统演化从一时刻发展到另一时刻的系统功能状态混乱程度的变化度量,数值上等于该时刻事件故障概率分布熵(简称分布熵)。研究表明演化熵只能通过某时刻事件故障概率分布得到,且具有确定的值域范围;演化过程中的事件逻辑关系对演化熵的变化有直接影响,或逻辑使演化熵降低且小于任意参与事件的分布熵,与逻辑使演化熵增加且大于任意参与事件的分布熵;随传递次数增加,与逻辑和或逻辑分别对演化熵的提高和降低作用减小。最后通过实例展示了演化熵的确定过程,总结了目前研究存在的问题,提出了后继研究方向。

量子态叠加的事件发生柔性逻辑统一表达式研究

为了确定原因事件导致结果事件过程中蕴含的多逻辑关系,提出以多量子态叠加为基础的事件发生柔性逻辑统一表达式。根据任意多事件间逻辑关系可简化为两事件逻辑关系的前提,研究了20种柔性逻辑关系转化为事件发生逻辑表达式的形式,选择其中16种建立了四量子态叠加的事件发生柔性逻辑统一表达式。研究这16种逻辑关系,进一步确定了8种无明显相关性的逻辑关系,最终形成了三量子态叠加的事件发生柔性逻辑统一表达式。研究表明:所建表达式能同时表达8种逻辑关系叠加状态,可得到结果事件发生概率中不同逻辑的构成形式,分析了所建表达式的特点和求解过程中可能遇到的问题,并通过实例分析说明了方法的使用过程和作用。研究成果可用于系统故障演化过程中,原因事件导致结果事件的逻辑关系统一表达及故障发生概率确定。

基于模糊逻辑的人为差错概率量化方法

为满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要,提出一种人为差错概率量化方法。分析技能、规则和知识为基础(skill,rule and knowledge-based,SRK)框架和行为模式的确定方法Hanaman决策树法,指出在确定行为模式的过程中考虑行为模式影响因素的不确定性是必要的;使用模糊逻辑方法处理行为模式各个影响因素的不确定性,根据Hanaman决策树构建模糊推理规则,利用系统人为行为可靠性程序(systematic human action reliability procedure,SHARP)方法所提供的人为差错概率区间确定人为差错概率的隶属度函数。结果表明:该方法考虑了任务场景的不确定性,可以得到人为差错概率的精确值,满足人机系统概率风险评估的需要。

Controllable all-optical stochastic logic gates and their delay storages based on the cascaded VCSELs with optical-injection

Using the dynamical properties of the polarization bistability that depends on the detuning of the injected light,we propose a novel approach to implement reliable all-optical stochastic logic gates in the cascaded vertical cavity surface emitting lasers（VCSELs） with optical-injection.Here,two logic inputs are encoded in the detuning of the injected light from a tunable CW laser.The logic outputs are decoded from the two orthogonal polarization lights emitted from the optically injected VCSELs.For the same logic inputs,under electro-optic modulation,we perform various digital signal processing（NOT,AND,NAND,XOR,XNOR,OR,NOR） in the all-optical domain by controlling the logic operation of the applied electric field.Also we explore their delay storages by using the mechanism of the generalized chaotic synchronization.To quantify the reliabilities of these logic gates,we further demonstrate their success probabilities.

A Hierarchy of Compatibility and Comeasurability Levels in Quantum Logics with Unique Conditional Probabilities

In the quantum mechanical Hilbert space formalism, the probabilistic interpretation is a later ad-hoc add-on, more or less enforced by the experimental evidence, but not motivated by the mathematical model itself. A model involving a clear probabilistic interpretation from the very beginning is provided by the quantum logics with unique conditional probabilities. It includes the projection lattices in von Neumann algebras and here probability conditionalization becomes identical with the state transition of the Lueders-von Neumann measurement process. This motivates the definition of a hierarchy of five compatibility and comeasurability levels in the abstract setting of the quantum logics with unique conditional probabilities. Their meanings are： the absence of quantum interference or influence, the existence of a joint distribution, simultaneous measurability, and the independence of the final state after two successive measurements from the sequential order of these two measurements. A further level means that two elements of the quantum logic （events） belong to the same Boolean subalgebra. In the general case, the five compatibility and comeasurability levels appear to differ, but they all coincide in the common Hilbert space formalism of quantum mechanics, in von Neumann algebras, and in some other cases.

Carnap＇s Thought on Inductive Logic

Although we often see references to Carnap＇s inductive logic even in modern literatures, seemingly its confusing style has long obstructed its correct understanding. So instead of Carnap, in this paper, I devote myself to its necessary and sufficient commentary. In the beginning part （Sections 2-5）, I explain why Carnap began the study of inductive logic and bow he related it with our thought on probability （Sections 2-4）. Therein, I trace Carnap＇s thought back to Wittgenstein＇s Tractatus as well （Section 5）. In the succeeding sections, I attempt the simplest exhibition of Carnap＇s earlier system, where his original thought was thoroughly provided. For this purpose, minor concepts to which researchers have not paid attention are highlighted, for example, m-function （Section 8）, in-correlation （Section 10）, C-correlate （Section 10）, statistical distribution （Section 12）, and fitting sequence （Section 17）. The climax of this paper is the proof of theorem （56）. Through this theorem, we will be able to overview Carnap＇s whole system.

A Probabilistic Paraconsistent Logical Model for Non-Relativistic Quantum Mechanics Using Interlaced Bilattices with Conflation and Bernoulli Distribution

In this work, we make a representation of non-relativistic quantum theory based on foundations of paraconsistent annotated logic (PAL), a propositional and evidential logic with an associated lattice FOUR. We use the PAL version with annotation of two values (PAL2v), named paraquantum logic (PQL), where the evidence signals are normalized values and the intensities of the inconsistencies are represented by degrees of contradiction. Quantum mechanics is represented through mapping on the interlaced bilattices where this logical formalization allows annotation of two values in the format of degrees of evidence of probability. The Bernoulli probability distribution is used to establish probabilistic logical states that identify the superposition of states and quantum entanglement with the equations and determine the state vectors located inside the interlaced Bilattice. In the proposed logical probabilistic paraquantum logic model (pPQL Model), we introduce the operation of logical conflation into interlaced bilattice. We verify that in the pPQL Model, the operation of logical conflation is responsible for providing a suitable model for various phenomena of quantum mechanics, mainly the quantum entanglement. The results obtained from the entanglement equations demonstrate the formalization and completeness of paraquantum logic that allows for interpretations of similar phenomena of quantum mechanics, including EPR paradox and the wave-particle theory.

法律模糊性问题的“解码”与“计算”

在法律实践中,常常需要模糊推理和模糊判断。由“模糊逻辑之父”拉特飞·扎德开创的模糊逻辑理论,提供了一种分析模糊性问题的新工具,可用以解析不确定法律概念,认定信息不完备条件下的待证事实,并作出模糊综合评判。特别是扎德的“词语计算”和“软计算”理论,比较清晰地揭示了人类的思维过程,也使我们更容易理解法官的判案过程。这一过程可以概括为:“软计算=贝叶斯法则+语言概率”,即用当事人双方提供的证据所反映的信息,不断修正、调整其主观上以语言变量而非数值形式表示的概率性认识(置信度),经渐进收敛,对事实存在的可能性形成“内心确信”,然后据以作出裁判。

基于逻辑博弈概率Petri网的地铁应急决策建模与分析

为解决逻辑Petri网不能很好地描述动态博弈过程的问题,提出逻辑博弈概率Petri网。将博弈的四要素融合到逻辑Petri网中,博弈的局中人被定义为token的一个属性,为其定义了策略集以及效用函数,并引入了信息库所。引入概率变迁和向量来表示博弈过程中先后验概率的转换关系,在贝叶斯公式的基础上引入模糊理论,以解决决策前期的信息缺失问题,并引入决策变迁来帮助理性人作出决策。使用逻辑博弈概率Petri网对地铁应急决策过程进行建模,构建系统可达图对问题进行分析,并应用Tina仿真验证模型性质,同时验证了所提出方法的可行性。

体现辨证论治差异的不孕症知识图谱构建方法研究

不同医家在辨证论治、辨证结果及用药习惯上存在差异,目前已有的知识图谱只对辨证论治知识进行关联与表达,不能直观地体现辨证论治差异。以6位医家的不孕症知识图谱为基础,通过引入“医家”与“关联强度”两种关系属性,构建一个整合多位医家辨证论治知识并直观体现差异性的知识图谱。在PageRank算法对不孕症数据进行预处理的基础上,通过对辨证论治过程自定义逻辑规则,利用概率软逻辑推理关联强度。建立基于关系图注意力网络的知识融合模型,考虑关系对实体含义表达的影响,通过关系图注意力网络层加权传播与聚合邻居实体信息,得到更丰富的实体向量表示从而实现不孕症知识融合。实验结果表明,该模型具有较好的融合能力,在朱南孙-钱伯煊数据集上Hit@1、Hit@10、Hit@30、MeanRank均取得较好结果,分别达到45.63%、60.85%、91.55%、0.564。通过构建体现辨证论治差异的不孕症知识图谱,可以系统地建立多位医家辨证论治知识之间的关联,对中医个性化知识的传承与发展具有重要意义。

系统故障演化过程中事件综合效用系数计算方法研究

为确定各事件在系统故障演化过程(System Fault Evolution Process,SFEP)中的效用,衡量对演化过程的贡献,提出了事件综合效用及系数计算方法。研究认为,影响SFEP的要素包括事件、事件故障概率、影响因素、演化过程中的事件演化关系和事件逻辑关系;进而提出了事件效用系数、事件逻辑效用系数和事件结构效用系数来表征这些要素;给出了3个系数的推导过程和计算方法;综合3个系数形成了事件综合效用系数。通过实例展示了计算流程,得到了实例SFEP中各事件的综合效用系数。结果表明:事件综合效用从大到小依次为过程事件、最终事件、边缘事件;对比事件效用系数,事件逻辑效用系数和结构效用系数对实现演化的作用更大;事件综合效用系数是通过所有因素的具体值确定的,只对确定因素值有效。成果可为SFEP增加研究事件效用的新方法。

电力系统连锁性发展事件的概率评估与预防控制

电力系统偶然事件安全性评估的目的是为了提高系统安全性,但当偶然事件本身具有随机性时,如何恰当选择偶然事件会存在很多困难,如果选得过于冒进往往会导致预防控制费用过高,如果选得过于保守又可能会造成大面积停电事故的发生。文中应用证据理论对电力系统连锁发展复杂偶然事件的概率进行评估,并在此基础上对用户期望停电费用和预防控制的功率限值费用进行了分析,给出了优化选择预防控制的方法。所提出的方法不仅可以减少不必要的预防控制费用支出,还可以减少发生大面积停电事故的风险,提高系统运行的安全性。算例讨论了它的有效性。

一种通用的城市道路交通流微观仿真系统的研究

交通流仿真是研究交通问题的有效工具．本文采用复合概率、模糊逻辑等方法建立了描述交通流中不确定性因素、车辆的到达、在路段上行驶以及通过路口的微观仿真模型，并利用面向对象的方法设计实现了一种基于上述模型的通用城市道路交通流微观仿真系统，比较真实地再现了车辆在道路网络的行驶过程．

概率逻辑伪度量空间及其性质

论证有限多个公式的概率分布与生成它的原子公式集的概率分布之间的关系,然后把计量逻辑学与概率逻辑学相结合,提出了概率真度、概率逻辑伪度量空间(F(n),ρP);指出当取均匀概率分布时,概率真度就转化为计量逻辑学中的真度,同时两公式间的概率逻辑伪距离Pρ就转化为计量逻辑学中的伪距离ρ.从而在有限理论中建立了一种更具一般性的概率逻辑伪度量空间理论。

经典命题逻辑的概率语义及其应用

文中将经典命题逻辑的赋值域由二值({0,1})推广到概率空间,引进了命题公式的概率赋值并建立命题逻辑的概率语义,证明了一个命题公式为重言式当且仅当其在每个概率赋值下的值都等于1.引入了命题公式的概率真度、不确定度、Λ-概率真度、Λ-不确定度等概念,并说明了Λ-概率真度是已有的二值命题逻辑各种真度概念的推广,通过讨论Λ-概率真度的性质,表明Λ-概率真度在全体公式集F(S)上满足Kolmogorov公理.证明在形式推演的一个有效推理中,结论的Λ-不确定度不超过各前提的Λ-不确定度与其必要度的乘积之和.利用公式的Λ-不确定度引进公式间的Λ-相似度和Λ-伪距离,证明了在一定条件下所建立的Λ-伪距离空间没有孤立点且通常的逻辑运算关于Λ-伪距离是连续的.在Λ-伪距离空间中,提出了F(S)上的两种不同近似推理模式,并通过实际应用例子说明所提出的近似推理模式是有效的.

基于泛逻辑学的柔性命题逻辑研究

现有的数理逻辑是刚性逻辑 ,不能满足研究不确定性问题的需要 .概率测度是研究不确定性问题的重要数学工具 ,但作为概率推理理论基础的概率逻辑发展不够成熟 ,影响了它在不确定性推理中的广泛应用 .本文第二作者在探索包含确定性和各种不确定性的现实世界逻辑规律的基础上 ,建立一个包容刚性逻辑和柔性逻辑的命题泛逻辑学体系 .本文利用这一研究成果 。

概率逻辑学基本定理的推广

通过引入生成状态集和生成概率等概念给出了概率逻辑学基本定理的简捷证明,并进一步通过引入自然合并概率的概念将概率逻辑学的基本定理推广到了更一般的形式,改进了对推理结论的不可靠度上界的估计.然后将概率逻辑学的基本方法引入计量逻辑学,得出了带参数■的有限逻辑理论相容度概念,是δ-相容度的推广.

耕地需求量预测的加权模糊-马尔可夫链模型

以耕地利用动态度为度量,利用模糊有序聚类方法将耕地需求量划分为不同的模糊状态区间,利用模糊集理论构建马尔可夫链状态转移概率矩阵,以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重改进传统的马尔可夫链预测模型,用改进后的模型对土地利用规划中耕地需求量进行预测。实验结果表明,改进后的方法较传统的预测方法更具科学性和实用性。