Cyclical fluctuations of real estate investment across regions in urban China

Taking the concrete conditions of each region into full consideration, the Chinese real estate market is divided into an eastern market, a central market and a western market. For each market, the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARMA） model is established and spectral analysis is carded out to better understand the changes in the real estate markets in each region. The results show the investment levels and several kinds of cycles within each market. The level of real estate investment （LREI）in the eastern region is the higiaest, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years; the LREI in the central region is in the middle, and the short cycle of investment is about 2 to 3 years; the LREI in the western region has been rapidly increasing in recent years, and the short cycle of investment is about 4 to 5 years. Real estate investment in each area has reached a peak and completed a middle-cycle movement after a period of sustained recession and an upsurge process, which has taken about 9 to 10 years.

A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives

Background:Individual decision-making largely influences the effectiveness of decisions and benefits of investments.Methods:In this article,a consensus model for group decision-making(GDM),based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),is developed to gather group ideas and analyze the real estate investment environment under multi-criteria problems.Twelve evaluation procedures of the developed model,which increase the convergence of the opinions of multiple experts,are proposed.Results:An empirical case about the real estate investment environment is applied to certify the feasibility of this developed model.Conclusions:the evaluation procedures have been fully observed with several rounds of discussions,and have manifested the experiences of experts.Besides,the evaluation results are in accordance with real-world situations,which demonstrates that our developed model is a feasible analysis tool for real estate investors to obtain better profits and lower risk.

Probabilistic Evaluation for Commercial Real Estate Investments

Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net present value （NPV） as the indicator was adopted as an analysis tool. A probabilistic framework for measuring exceeding probability of annual rate of return on a commercial real estate investment under a specified holding period was developed. Based on the framework, the relation curves of annual rate of return versus the corresponding exceeding probability of return for available financing schemes were constructed. These curves were used as a tool to prioritize the schemes and inform decision-making. An example case is presented to demonstrate the decision-making process developed in this study. Through the proposed process, investors are given basic information on the return, probability that profit gain will occur, and feasibility of financial schemes for commercial real estate investments.

Application of the Option Game Theory to the Real Estate Enterprise Investment Decision

One of the remarkable characteristics of the current development of China's national economy is the increase of uncertainties, which makes the traditional method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on the option game theory, the investment decision making of real estate is analyzed here, the investment optimization mathematic model established, and Nash Equilibrium discussed. Through case studies, we analyze the application of game option in the real estate, which is put under symmetrical duopoly. The conclusions will contribute to both the theory on and practice of the present investment in the real estate enterprise.

Application of PPC Model Based on RAGA in Real Estate Investment Decision-Making

According to the size of the projector function to evaluate the merits of the program, Projection Pursuit method is applied to real estate investment decision-making by using the real coding based on Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA) to optimize the Projection Pursuit Classification (PPC) process and a wide range of indicators value was projected linearly. The results are reasonable and verified with an example. At the same time, the subjective of the target weight can be avoided. It provides decision-makers with comprehensive information on all the indicators of new ideas and new

Overheated Investment in Real Estate Inhibits Innovation:Verification and Analysis in China's Case

Whether rapid real estate investment growth inhibits China's innovation is a critical question for China's economic sustainability. Based on China's provincial panel data and using land supply as an instrumental variable for real estate investment growth, we arrived at the following findings after effectively controlling endogenous factors that could lead to estimation errors. First of all, the faster real estate investment grows in a province, the lower the growth rates of innovation and R&D spending and invention patent authorizations will be in the province, an indication that real estate directly inhibits innovation in China. Such inhibition is particularly pronounced in the industrial sectors. Secondly, in the context of rampant real estate investment, the biased loan maturity structure of China's financial system in favor of the real estate industry further inhibits innovation. This paper has verified the existence of the direct effect of real estate investment growth on regional innovation and its indirect effect on regional innovation through the biased long maturity structure of the financial system. The empirical findings of this paper provide practical policy implications for China to strike a balance between real estate development and an innovation-driven development strategy.

Analysis of Real estate investment structure optimization based on investment sources

As the investment structure of economic structure has a direct impact on the industrial structure, economic structure and thus become the focus of research. However, due to the impact of the traditional planned economy system, for a long time, our focus on the expansion of investment scale, optimize investment structure and neglect, leading to low efficiency of investment, private investment is difficult to effectively start, optimizing economic structure adjustment difficulties and other problems. The paper has got a conclusion that the target of optimization of real estate investment and ways based on the status of investment of real estate, and integration analysis for real estate investment sources.

A Review of Domestic and Foreign Research on Real Estate Financial Management

With the tightening of house purchase policies in recent years, the introduction of financial and land restriction policies, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, real estate bombshells are common. Real estate is in the critical stage of transformation and upgrading, and industrial development is facing dire challenges and pressure for survival. As an important part of enterprise management, financial management is directly related to the success or failure of enterprise development. Facing the financial risks emerging in the financial management of the real estate industry at this stage, this review begins from financial management personnel training, investment calculation management, budget management, and asset management in the effort of optimizing the real estate financial management operating mechanism under the new situation and ensuring the healthy and stable development of real estate enterprises, while maintaining core competitiveness.

Chinese Investment Emigration is Surging

Education,pollution and food safety concerns are three main reasons for emigration.Los Angeles,San Francisco and Vancouver are top overseas real estate investments for Chinese.66%of those who have emigrated,or are applying or considering doing so,say they would consider getting a foreign passport after moving overseas.

房地产投资集聚对居住包容性增长的影响研究

文章旨在提高住房的包容性,寻求最佳的房地产投资水平,为推动构建房地产新发展模式提供政策建议。依据包容性增长的概念,文章构建了评价居住包容性增长的指标体系。基于2013—2022年252个地级市的数据,采用面板回归模型来探究房地产投资聚集对居住包容性增长的影响。研究发现:房地产投资集聚的区位熵与居住包容性增长之间存在倒“U”型关系,区位熵在拐点0.919 7前后对居住包容性增长分别表现出显著的正向影响和负向影响。

不动产信托投资基金投资风险识别与价值影响量化研究——以招商局商业房托基金为例

REITs底层资产类型的扩容及已上市REITs的扩募,均需要不断对各类型、各时期的REITs底层资产价值进行审视,REITs价值评估变得至关重要,其中对投资风险的分析及其对投资价值的影响成为一个关键问题。文章分析REITs投资的风险来源,识别其主要宏观及微观风险,发现在美国、新加坡和中国香港REITs市场上宏观经济及资本市场对REITs投资收益的波动影响较小,主要风险来自微观层面。进而基于这些风险来源讨论REITs投资价值确定中主要风险度量参数—折现率的确定问题,提出三种公募REITs折现率的测算方法:基于同类上市房企β值的累加法、物业资本化率平均调整法、同类REITs收益率类比法。并以招商局商业房托基金(1503.HK)为例,采用三种方法量化其IPO定价中的折现率,为REITs投融资中合理估值的确定提供理论依据与实践建议。

房地产投资对城市绿色经济发展的影响研究

推动绿色经济发展是实现高质量发展的关键环节。基于中国2007-2019年280个城市面板数据,深入剖析房地产投资对绿色经济发展的影响机理,对于实现房地产业和绿色经济的协同发展具有重要意义。结果表明,过多的房地产开发投资对城市绿色经济发展产生抑制作用,这一影响在东中部城市、特大及重点城市中更为突出。进一步研究发现,过高的房地产投资在一定程度上影响产业结构优化升级和绿色技术创新活力,进而抑制绿色经济提升,但绿色金融能够在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响。据此,建议构建房地产业长效机制、因地制宜优化城市绿色发展布局、合理引导产业结构调整与激励绿色技术创新、形成绿色金融与房地产投资的有效联动,从而切实推动房地产业和绿色经济发展的良性循环。

基于DEA的房地产资源投资效率研究

本研究运用数据包络分析法(DEA)对我国房地产业投资效率进行评价分析。研究发现,我国仅8个地区的房地产投资综合效率有效;9个地区规模效率有效,多数地区规模效率值大于0.9,表明我国房地产规模状态良好;纯技术效率有效地区12个,但差异较大,其值在0.557-0.925间波动,各地区技术差异明显;规模收益状态呈现出较大差异。

The real estate time-stamping and registration system based on Ethereum blockchain

In recent years,there has been a growing interest in real estate investments that utilize blockchain technology.Traditional real estate investments usually involve third-party intermediaries for verifying and recording informal real estate transactions.This paper proposes a blockchain-based real estate investment model and presents a detailed description of the real estate register authentication aspect of the model.The model uses blockchain technology to create tamper-evident records of real estate transactions and provide secure authentication and verification for informal real estate transactions.Meanwhile,each real estate transaction is recorded in a block,and all transaction records are kept on the blockchain.This means that inventors can access these transaction records and verify their authenticity and validity.The system can also use smart contracts to automate the process of real estate transactions,which further improves transaction efficiency and reduces costs.Furthermore,the model’s timestamp and authentication mechanism can eliminate third-party intermediaries and ensure the authenticity and validity of real estate transactions through distributed ledgers and verification mechanisms.Overall,blockchain-based real estate systems offer advantages of security,transparency,efficiency,and cost reduction.With ongoing blockchain advancements,these systems are expected to play a crucial role in future real estate investment transactions.

房地产投资对区域经济发展的驱动作用研究

房地产投资在拉动消费、促进就业、带动相关产业、增加财政收入、提高居民福利等方面发挥了重要作用。然而,它也存在着一些制约因素。因此,为了实现区域经济的可持续发展,需要根据不同区域的需求,制定合理的投资政策,优化投资结构,协调投资与经济发展的关系。这种多维度、多层次、多渠道的驱动作用需要谨慎管理,以实现房地产投资与区域经济的良性互动。

固定资产投资对建筑业劳动生产率的影响——基于房地产和制造业领域投资占比视角

提升劳动生产率是建筑业高质量发展的关键。运用Eviews 10.0建立VAR(向量自回归)模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解分析,研究房地产开发投资占固定资产投资比例和制造业投资占固定资产投资比例对建筑业劳动生产率的影响。实证结果显示,固定资产投资中的房地产开发投资占比和制造业投资占比均会促进建筑业劳动生产率的提高,但制造业投资占比的影响程度更大。在此基础上对建筑业未来的发展提出建议。

我国房地产市场波动对系统性风险溢出效应研究

鉴于房地产市场与金融市场的密切联系而引发人们对于我国金融风险状况的担忧,本文立足于我国区域经济发展实际,以房地产市场波动的主要诱因和我国金融市场间接融资渠道的主要特性,结合投融资错配的时空观特征,探讨由投融资错配引发的房地产市场波动对银行系统性风险溢出效应的影响。研究结果得出,我国不同区域存在不同程度的房地产市场波动对银行系统性风险的溢出效应,并根据研究结果有针对性地提出对策建议。

新时代国有房产企业应对行业变化的方法和策略研究

房地产开发具有投资大、周期长、风险高的特点,受多个超预期因素影响,对身处房地产行业的国有房企,聚焦勇担当、防风险、强管理、重安全俨然成为重点。聚焦当前市场不确定性,通过剖析房地产项目面临的各类风险和企业集团的经营管理,提出切实可行的应对方法和策略,为房地产行业在新格局中的高质量发展提供借鉴。

保障性租赁住房REITs底层资产特征研究

通过文献研究,从REITs收益影响因素、租赁住房收益影响因素、物业运营成本影响因素和REITs发行要求四个方面,识别出保障性租赁住房REITs的44个底层资产特征,并进一步将其量化为一套由89个指标组成的指标体系,为REITs参与方提供底层资产选择的有效工具。

美联储加息冲击对中国房地产市场的溢出效应及其应对

利用2007—2022年季度数据构建BVAR模型,研究美联储加息对中国房地产市场的外溢效应,发现美联储加息将导致家庭债务、商品房销售额、房价和房地产投资下降,产生负向外溢效应。而后构建含有GHH效用函数、异质性家庭、信贷约束和房地产部门的小国开放经济DSGE模型,在加息冲击下,DSGE模型能够较好地拟合BVAR模型的特征事实。机制分析表明利息差渠道、国际资本流动渠道和利率渠道是其中主要的内在影响机制,信贷约束具有放大机制。反事实实验表明当美联储加息时,中国加息将使房地产市场进一步恶化;中国采取降息或放松信贷政策的逆向操作,在一定程度上能够对冲美联储加息的负面影响,但加剧了资本外流。中国在短期采取降息、在中长期采取加息和放松信贷相结合的政策组合,能够达到更好的政策调控效果。