Extended Range(10–30 Days) Heavy Rain Forecasting Study Based on a Nonlinear Cross-Prediction Error Model

Extended range （10-30 d） heavy rain forecasting is difficult but performs an important function in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a nonlinear cross prediction error （NCPE） algorithm that combines nonlinear dynamics and statistical methods is proposed. The method is based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic single-variable time series of precipitable water and is tested in 100 global cases of heavy rain. First, nonlinear relative dynamic error for local attractor pairs is calculated at different stages of the heavy rain process, after which the local change characteristics of the attractors are analyzed. Second, the eigen-peak is defined as a prediction indicator based on an error threshold of about 1.5, and is then used to analyze the forecasting validity period. The results reveal that the prediction indicator features regarded as eigenpeaks for heavy rain extreme weather are all reflected consistently, without failure, based on the NCPE model; the prediction validity periods for 1-2 d, 3-9 d and 10-30 d are 4, 22 and 74 cases, respectively, without false alarm or omission. The NCPE model developed allows accurate forecasting of heavy rain over an extended range of 10-30 d and has the potential to be used to explore the mechanisms involved in the development of heavy rain according to a segmentation scale. This novel method provides new insights into extended range forecasting and atmospheric predictability, and also allows the creation of multi-variable chaotic extreme weather prediction models based on high spatiotemporal resolution data.

A new method of determining the optimal embedding dimension based on nonlinear prediction

A new method is proposed to determine the optimal embedding dimension from a scalar time series in this paper. This method determines the optimal embedding dimension by optimizing the nonlinear autoregressive prediction model parameterized by the embedding dimension and the nonlinear degree. Simulation results show the effectiveness of this method. And this method is applicable to a short time series, stable to noise, computationally efficient, and without any purposely introduced parameters.

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using LS-SVM with Chaotic Mutation Evolutionary Programming for Parameter Optimization

Nonlinear time series prediction is studied by using an improved least squares support vector machine （LSSVM） regression based on chaotic mutation evolutionary programming （CMEP） approach for parameter optimization. We analyze how the prediction error varies with different parameters （σ, γ） in LS-SVM. In order to select appropriate parameters for the prediction model, we employ CMEP algorithm. Finally, Nasdaq stock data are predicted by using this LS-SVM regression based on CMEP, and satisfactory results are obtained.

Impact of observational MJO forcing on ENSO predictability in the Zebiak-Cane model: PartⅠ.Effect on the maximum prediction error

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation （MJO） as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform （CWT） and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation （CNOP） method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.

The application of neural networks to comprehensive prediction by seismology prediction method

BP neural networks is used to mid-term earthquake prediction in this paper. Some usual prediction parameters of seismology are used as the import units of neural networks. And the export units of neural networks is called as the character parameter W_0 describing enhancement of seismicity. We applied this method to space scanning of North China. The result shows that the mid-term anomalous zone of W_0-value usually appeared obviously around the future epicenter 1~3 years before earthquake. It is effective to mid-term prediction.

On numerical earthquake prediction

Can earthquakes be predicted？ How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction？ This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earth- quake prediction must also develop from empirical fore- casting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.

Systematic Errors of Zonal-Mean Flow in Dynamical Monthly Prediction and Its Improvement

An analysis of a large number of cases of 500 hPa height monthly prediction shows that systematic errors exist in the zonal mean components which account for a large portion of the total forecast errors, and such errors are commonly seen in other prediction models. To overcome the difficulties of the numerical model, the authors attempt a 'hybrid' approach to improving the dynamical extended-range (monthly) prediction. The monthly pentad-mean nonlinear dynamical regional prediction model of the zonal-mean geopotential height (wave number 0) based on a large amount of data is constituted by employing the reconstruction of phase-space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method. The dynamical prediction of the numerical model is then combined with that of the nonlinear model, i.e., the pentadmean zonal-mean height produced by the nonlinear model is transformed to its counterpart in the numerical model by nudging during the time integration. The forecast experiment results show that the above hybrid approach not only reduces the systematic error in zonal mean height by the numerical model, but also makes an improvement in the non-axisymmetric components due to the wave-flow interaction.

COLORED NOISE PREDICTION BASED ON NEURAL NETWORK

A method for predicting colored noise by introducing prediction of nonlinear time series is presented. By adopting three kinds of neural networks prediction models, the colored noise prediction is studied through changing the filter bandwidth for stochastic noise and the sampling rate for colored noise. The results show that colored noise can be predicted. The prediction error decreases with the increasing of the sampling rate or the narrowing of the filter bandwidth. If the parameters are selected properly, the prediction precision can meet the requirement of engineering implementation. The results offer a new reference way for increasing the ability for detecting weak signal in signal processing system.

Path Tracking Controller Design of Automated Parking Systems via NMPC with an Instructible Solution

Parking difficulties have become a social issue that people have to solve.Automated parking system is practicable for quick par operations without a driver which can also greatly reduces the probability of parking accidents.The paper proposes a Lyapunov-based nonlinear model predictive controller embedding an instructable solution which is generated by the modified rear-wheel feedback method(RF-LNMPC)in order to improve the overall path tracking accuracy in parking conditions.Firstly,A discrete-time RF-LNMPC considering the position and attitude of the parking vehicle is proposed to increase the success rate of automated parking effectively.Secondly,the RF-LNMPC problem with a multi-objective cost function is solved by the Interior-Point Optimization,of which the iterative initial values are described as the instructable solutions calculated by combining modified rear-wheel feedback to improve the performance of local optimal solution.Thirdly,the details on the computation of the terminal constraint and terminal cost for the linear time-varying case is presented.The closed-loop stability is verified via Lyapunov techniques by considering the terminal constraint and terminal cost theoretically.Finally,the proposed RF-LNMPC is implemented on a selfdriving Lincoln MKZ platform and the experiment results have shown improved performance in parallel and vertical parking conditions.The Monte Carlo analysis also demonstrates good stability and repeatability of the proposed method which can be applied in practical use in the near future.

Path-Following Based on Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Adaptive Path Preview

This paper presents a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller(NMPC)for the path following of autonomous vehicles and an algorithm to adaptively adjust the preview distance.The prediction model includes vehicle dynamics,path following dynamics,and system input dynamics.The single-track vehicle model considers the vehicle’s coupled lateral and longitudinal dynamics,as well as nonlinear tire forces.The tracking error dynamics are derived based on the curvilinear coordinates.The cost function is designed to minimize path tracking errors and control effort while considering constraints such as actuator bounds and tire grip limits.An algorithm that utilizes the optimal preview distance vector to query the corresponding reference curvature and reference speed.The length of the preview path is adaptively adjusted based on the vehicle speed,heading error,and path curvature.We validate the controller performance in a simulation environment with the autonomous racing scenario.The simulation results show that the vehicle accurately follows the highly dynamic path with small tracking errors.The maximum preview distance can be prior estimated and guidance the selection of the prediction horizon for NMPC.

Online Neural Network Tuned Tube-Based Model Predictive Control for Nonlinear System

This paper proposes a robust control scheme based on the sequential convex programming and learning-based model for nonlinear system subjected to additive uncertainties.For the problem of system nonlinearty and unknown uncertainties,we study the tube-based model predictive control scheme that makes use of feedforward neural network.Based on the characteristics of the bounded limit of the average cost function while time approaching infinity,a min-max optimization problem(referred to as min-max OP)is formulated to design the controller.The feasibility of this optimization problem and the practical stability of the controlled system are ensured.To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach,a numerical simulation on a double-tank system is conducted.The results of the simulation serve as verification of the effectualness of the proposed scheme.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Based on Support Vector Machine with Multi-kernel

Multi-kernel-based support vector machine （SVM） model structure of nonlinear systems and its specific identification method is proposed, which is composed of a SVM with linear kernel function followed in series by a SVM with spline kernel function. With the help of this model, nonlinear model predictive control can be transformed to linear model predictive control, and consequently a unified analytical solution of optimal input of multi-step-ahead predictive control is possible to derive. This algorithm does not require online iterative optimization in order to be suitable for real-time control with less calculation. The simulation results of pH neutralization process and CSTR reactor show the effectiveness and advantages of the presented algorithm.

Nonlinear Model Algorithmic Control of a pH Neutralization Process

Control of pH neutralization processes is challenging in the chemical process industry because of their inherent strong nonlinearity. In this paper, the model algorithmic control (MAC) strategy is extended to nonlinear processes using Hammerstein model that consists of a static nonlinear polynomial function followed in series by a linear impulse response dynamic element. A new nonlinear Hammerstein MAC algorithm (named NLH-MAC) is presented in detail. The simulation control results of a pH neutralization process show that NLH-MAC gives better control performance than linear MAC and the commonly used industrial nonlinear propotional plus integral plus derivative (PID) controller. Further simulation experiment demonstrates that NLH-MAC not only gives good control response, but also possesses good stability and robustness even with large modeling errors.

SVM with Quadratic Polynomial Kernel Function Based Nonlinear Model One-step-ahead Predictive Control

A support vector machine (SVM) with quadratic polynomial kernel function based nonlinear model one-step-ahead predictive controller is presented. The SVM based predictive model is established with black-box identification method. By solving a cubic equation in the feature space, an explicit predictive control law is obtained through the predictive control mechanism. The effect of controller is demonstrated on a recognized benchmark problem and on the control of continuous-stirred tank reactor (CSTR). Simulation results show that SVM with quadratic polynomial kernel function based predictive controller can be well applied to nonlinear systems, with good performance in following reference trajectory as well as in disturbance-rejection.

Robust Adaptive Gain Higher Order Sliding Mode Observer Based Control-constrained Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Spacecraft Formation Flying

This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher order sliding mode observer has been proposed to estimate the velocity as well as unmeasured disturbances from the noisy position measurements.A differentiator structure containing the Lipschitz constant and Lebesgue measurable control input, is utilized for obtaining the estimates. Adaptive tuning algorithms are derived based on Lyapunov stability theory, for updating the observer gains,which will give enough flexibility in the choice of initial estimates.Moreover, it may help to cope with unexpected state jerks. The trajectory tracking problem is formulated as a finite horizon optimal control problem, which is solved online. The control constraints are incorporated by using a nonquadratic performance functional. An adaptive update law has been derived for tuning the step size in the optimization algorithm, which may help to improve the convergence speed. Moreover, it is an attractive alternative to the heuristic choice of step size for diverse operating conditions. The disturbance as well as state estimates from the higher order sliding mode observer are utilized by the plant output prediction model, which will improve the overall performance of the controller. The nonlinear dynamics defined in leader fixed Euler-Hill frame has been considered for the present work and the reference trajectories are generated using Hill-Clohessy-Wiltshire equations of unperturbed motion. The simulation results based on rigorous perturbation analysis are presented to confirm the robustness of the proposed approach.

Support vector machine based nonlinear model multi-step-ahead optimizing predictive control

A support vector machine with guadratic polynomial kernel function based nonlinear model multi-step-ahead optimizing predictive controller was presented. A support vector machine based predictive model was established by black-box identification. And a quadratic objective function with receding horizon was selected to obtain the controller output. By solving a nonlinear optimization problem with equality constraint of model output and boundary constraint of controller output using Nelder-Mead simplex direct search method, a sub-optimal control law was achieved in feature space. The effect of the controller was demonstrated on a recognized benchmark problem and a continuous-stirred tank reactor. The simulation results show that the multi-step-ahead predictive controller can be well applied to nonlinear system, with better performance in following reference trajectory and disturbance-rejection.

GA-Based Model Predictive Control of Semi-Active Landing Gear

Semi-active landing gear can provide good performance of both landing impact and taxi situation, and has the ability for adapting to various ground conditions and operational conditions. A kind of Nonlinear Model Predictive Control algorithm （NMPC） for semi-active landing gears is developed in this paper. The NMPC algorithm uses Genetic Algorithm （GA） as the optimization technique and chooses damping performance of landing gear at touch down to be the optimization object. The valve＇s rate and magnitude limitations are also considered in the controller＇s design. A simulation model is built for the semi-active landing gear＇s damping process at touchdown. Drop tests are carried out on an experimental passive landing gear systerm to validate the parameters of the simulation model. The result of numerical simulation shows that the isolation of impact load at touchdown can be significantly improved compared to other control algorithms. The strongly nonlinear dynamics of semi-active landing gear coupled with control valve＇s rate and magnitude limitations are handled well with the proposed controller.

On Spatiotemporal Series Analysis and Its Application to Predict the Regional Short Term Climate Process

Based on the theory of reconstructing state space, a technique for spatiotemporal series prediction is presented. By means of this technique and NCEP/NCAR data of the monthly mean geopotential height anomaly of the 500-hPa isobaric surface in the Northern Hemisphere, a regional prediction experiment is also carried out. If using the correlation coefficient R between the observed field and the prediction field to measure the prediction accuracy, the averaged R given by 48 prediction samples reaches 21%, which corresponds to the current prediction level for the short range climate process.

NonliNonlinear GPC with In-place Trained RLS-SVM Model for DOC Control in a Fed-batch Bioreactor

In this study, Saccharomyces cerevisiae (baker's yeast) was produced in a fed-batch bioreactor at the optimal dissolved oxygen concentration (DOC) and growth medium temperature. However, it is very difficult to control the DOC using conventional controllers because of the poorly understood and constantly changing dynamics of the bioprocess. A generalized predictive controller (GPC) based on a nonlinear autoregressive integrated moving average exogenous (NARIMAX) model is presented to stabilize the DOC by manipulation of air flow rate. The NARIMAX model is built by an improved recursive least-squares support vector machine, which is trained by an in-place computation scheme and avoids the computation of the inverse of a large matrix and memory reallocation. The proposed nonlinear GPC algorithm requires little preliminary knowledge of the fermentation process, and directly obtains the nonlinear model in matrix form by using iterative multiple modeling instead of linearization at each sampling period. By application of an on-line bioreactor control, experimental results demonstrate the robustness, effectiveness and advantages of the new controller.

Dynamic optimization oriented modeling and nonlinear model predictive control of the wet limestone FGD system

Nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC)scheme is an effective method of multi-objective optimization control in complex industrial systems.In this paper,a NMPC scheme for the wet limestone flue gas desulphurization(WFGD)system is proposed which provides a more flexible framework of optimal control and decision-making compared with PID scheme.At first,a mathematical model of the FGD process is deduced which is suitable for NMPC structure.To equipoise the model’s accuracy and conciseness,the wet limestone FGD system is separated into several modules.Based on the conservation laws,a model with reasonable simplification is developed to describe dynamics of different modules for the purpose of controller design.Then,by addressing economic objectives directly into the NMPC scheme,the NMPC controller can minimize economic cost and track the set-point simultaneously.The accuracy of model is validated by the field data of a 1000 MW thermal power plant in Henan Province,China.The simulation results show that the NMPC strategy improves the economic performance and ensures the emission requirement at the same time.In the meantime,the control scheme satisfies the multiobjective control requirements under complex operation conditions(e.g.,boiler load fluctuation and set point variation).The mathematical model and NMPC structure provides the basic work for the future development of advanced optimized control algorithms in the wet limestone FGD systems.