On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Dynamics of Advantageous Mutant Spread in Spatial Death-Birth and Birth-Death Moran Models

The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.

Normalized glandular dose coefficients for digital breast tomosynthesis using detailed Chinese breast models

The rise in breast cancer diagnoses among Chinese women has necessitated the use of X-ray breast screening,which carries a radiation risk.This study aimed to provide a dosimetry protocol for the Chinese female population to replace the traditional standard that utilizes simplified breast models,for the accurate estimation of the mean glandular dose of a patient undergoing digital breast tomosynthesis(DBT).The first set of detailed Chinese female breast models and representative breast parameters was constructed.Considering backscatter radiation and computational efficiency,we improved the combination of these models and the Chinese reference adult female whole-body voxel phantom.Image acquisition for four commercial DBT systems that are widely employed in China was simulated using the Monte Carlo method to obtain the normalized glandular dose coefficients of DBT(D_(gN)^(DBT))and the glandular depth dose(D_(g)^(dep)(z))for different breast characteristics and X-ray spectra.We calculated a series of D_(gN)^(DBT) values for breasts with different percentage mass glandularities(5%,25%,50%,75%,and 100%)and compressed breast thicknesses(2,3,4,5,6,and 7 cm)at various tube potentials(25,28,30,32,35,and 49 kV)and target/filter combinations(W/Rh,W/Al,Mo/Mo,Rh/Rh,and Rh/Ag).The parameter dependence of the breast characteristics and beam conditions on D_(gN)^(DBT) in detailed breast models was investigated.The D_(gN)^(DBT) results were 14.6-51.0%lower than those of the traditional dosimetry standard in China.The difference in D_(gN)^(DBT) was mainly due to a decrease in the depth of the main energy deposition area caused by the glandular distribution along the depth direction.The results obtained in this study may be used to improve breast dosimetry in China and provide more detailed information on risk assessment during DBT.

A Survey Study on TPACK Framework for Normal Students of English Major in Ethnic Colleges and Universities:Empirical Analysis Based on Structural Equation Modeling

With the continuous advancement of education informatization,Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge(TPACK),as a new theoretical framework,provides a novel method for measuring teachers’informatization teaching ability.This study takes normal students of English majors from three ethnic universities as the research object,collects relevant data through questionnaires,and uses structural equation modeling to conduct data analysis and empirical research to investigate the differences in the TPACK levels of these students at different grades and the structural relationships among the elements in the TPACK structure.The technological pedagogical knowledge element of the TPACK structure was not obtained by exploratory factors analysis but through path analysis and structural equation modeling,the results show that the one-dimensional core knowledge of technological knowledge(TK),content knowledge(CK),and pedagogical knowledge(PK)have a positive effect on the two-dimensional interaction knowledge of technological content knowledge(TCK)and pedagogical content knowledge(PCK);furthermore,TCK and PCK have a positive effect on TPACK;and TK,CK,and PK indirectly affect TPACK through TCK and PCK.On this basis,suggestions are provided to ethnic colleges and universities to develop the TPACK knowledge competence of normal students of English majors.

The influence of lipid-extraction on theδ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea:modification and application of lipid normalization models

Mesopelagic fish,the most important daily vertically migrating community in the oceans,are characterized by high lipid content which may obscure the interpretation of stable isotopes analysis.Demersal fish,which are important consumers in the food web dominated by mesopelagic fish,also have a high lipid content.Here we collected 127 fish samples from the South China Sea and evaluated the effect of lipid contents on△δ^(13)C of mesopelagic and demersal fish.In lipid-extracted mesopelagic fish,the C/N content ratio(<5.5)shows a clear correlation withΔδ^(13)C(the offset of bulk and lipid-extractedδ^(13)C values),especially in non-migratory and semi-migratory species;these values were less correlation in demersal fish.Based on our results,we suggest that mesopelagic and demersal fish in different regions of the South China Sea should be studied separately using appropriate correction models and less fit for the traditional model.Moreover,the C/N content ratio should be used cautiously for establishing the lipid normalization model,especially for the fish in migratory mesopelagic fish and demersal fish.Our results also reveal that mesopelagic fish across nearby regions could be analyzed together.The new models described here can be applied in future studies of mesopelagic and demersal fish in the South China Sea.

αDecay in extreme laser fields within a deformed Gamow-like model

In this study, the effect of extreme laser fields on the α decay process of ground-state even–even nuclei was investigated.Using the deformed Gamow-like model, we found that state-of-the-art lasers can cause a slight change in the α decay penetration probability of most nuclei. In addition, we studied the correlation between the rate of change of the α decay penetration probability and angle between the directions of the laser electric field and α particle emission for different nuclei. Based on this correlation, the average effect of extreme laser fields on the half-life of many nuclei with arbitrary α particle emission angles was calculated. The calculations show that the laser suppression and promotion effects on the α decay penetration probability of the nuclei population with completely random α particle-emission directions are not completely canceled.The remainder led to a change in the average penetration probability of the nuclei. Furthermore, the possibility of achieving a higher average rate of change by altering the spatial shape of the laser is explored. We conclude that circularly polarized lasers may be helpful in future experiments to achieve a more significant average rate of change of the α decay half-life of the nuclei population.

Nonlinear constitutive models of rock structural plane and their applications

Structural planes play an important role in controlling the stability of rock engineering,and the influence of structural planes should be considered in the design and construction process of rock engineering.In this paper,mechanical properties,constitutive theory,and numerical application of structural plane are studied by a combination method of laboratory tests,theoretical derivation,and program development.The test results reveal the change laws of various mechanical parameters under different roughness and normal stress.At the pre-peak stage,a non-stationary model of shear stiffness is established,and threedimensional empirical prediction models for initial shear stiffness and residual stage roughness are proposed.The nonlinear constitutive models are established based on elasto-plastic mechanics,and the algorithms of the models are developed based on the return mapping algorithm.According to a large number of statistical analysis results,empirical prediction models are proposed for model parameters expressed by structural plane characteristic parameters.Finally,the discrete element method(DEM)is chosen to embed the constitutive models for practical application.The running programs of the constitutive models have been compiled into the discrete element model library.The comparison results between the proposed model and the Mohr-Coulomb slip model show that the proposed model can better describe nonlinear changes at different stages,and the predicted shear strength,peak strain and shear stiffness are closer to the test results.The research results of the paper are conducive to the accurate evaluation of structural plane in rock engineering.

Locally and globally uniform approximations for ruin probabilities of a nonstandard bidimensional risk model with subexponential claims

Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is arbitrarily dependent.Under some mild conditions,we achieve a locally uniform approximation of the finite-time ruin probability for all time horizon within a finite interval.If we further assume that each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is negative quadrant dependent and the two classes of claims are consistently-varying-tailed,it shows that the above obtained approximation is also globally uniform for all time horizon within an infinite interval.

Anisotropic dynamic permeability model for porous media

Based on the tortuous capillary network model,the relationship between anisotropic permeability and rock normal strain,namely the anisotropic dynamic permeability model(ADPM),was derived and established.The model was verified using pore-scale flow simulation.The uniaxial strain process was calculated and the main factors affecting permeability changes in different directions in the deformation process were analyzed.In the process of uniaxial strain during the exploitation of layered oil and gas reservoirs,the effect of effective surface porosity on the permeability in all directions is consistent.With the decrease of effective surface porosity,the sensitivity of permeability to strain increases.The sensitivity of the permeability perpendicular to the direction of compression to the strain decreases with the increase of the tortuosity,while the sensitivity of the permeability in the direction of compression to the strain increases with the increase of the tortuosity.For layered reservoirs with the same initial tortuosity in all directions,the tortuosity plays a decisive role in the relative relationship between the variations of permeability in all directions during pressure drop.When the tortuosity is less than 1.6,the decrease rate of horizontal permeability is higher than that of vertical permeability,while the opposite is true when the tortuosity is greater than 1.6.This phenomenon cannot be represented by traditional dynamic permeability model.After the verification by experimental data of pore-scale simulation,the new model has high fitting accuracy and can effectively characterize the effects of deformation in different directions on the permeability in all directions.

A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment

Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.

Multiple model PHD filter for tracking sharply maneuvering targets using recursive RANSAC based adaptive birth estimation

An algorithm to track multiple sharply maneuvering targets without prior knowledge about new target birth is proposed. These targets are capable of achieving sharp maneuvers within a short period of time, such as drones and agile missiles.The probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates only the first-order statistical moment of the full target posterior, has been shown to be a computationally efficient solution to multitarget tracking problems. However, the standard PHD filter operates on the single dynamic model and requires prior information about target birth distribution, which leads to many limitations in terms of practical applications. In this paper,we introduce a nonzero mean, white noise turn rate dynamic model and generalize jump Markov systems to multitarget case to accommodate sharply maneuvering dynamics. Moreover, to adaptively estimate newborn targets’information, a measurement-driven method based on the recursive random sampling consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvement in tracking multiple sharply maneuvering targets with adaptive birth estimation.

A Cascading Fault Path Prediction Method for Integrated Energy Distribution Networks Based on the Improved OPA Model under Typhoon Disasters

In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.

Optimization of Urban Ecological Network Based on MSPA-MCR Model: A Case Study of Jingzhou City

As a key carrier supporting urban ecological health and living environment quality,urban ecological network is a key focus of current urban green space research.Jingzhou City of Hubei Province is taken as the research object.Relying on GIS technology platform,MSPA method is used to analyze the landscape pattern of Jingzhou City.On this basis,the landscape connectivity evaluation method is used to accurately identify and extract the source areas with important ecological value in Jingzhou City.Then,the normalization method and weighting method are combined to create a resistance factor evaluation system to construct the resistance surface.Based on the MCR model,the ecological network of Jingzhou City is successfully constructed,and targeted spatial optimization strategies and development suggestions are proposed.

Stability of a Delayed Stochastic Epidemic COVID-19 Model with Vaccination and with Differential Susceptibility

In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R0 ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.

Uniform asymptotics for finite-time ruin probability in some dependent compound risk models with constant interest rate

Consider two dependent renewal risk models with constant interest rate. By using some methods in the risk theory, uniform asymptotics for finite-time ruin probability is derived in a non-compound risk model, where claim sizes are upper tail asymptotically independent random variables with dominatedly varying tails, claim inter-arrival times follow the widely lower orthant dependent structure, and the total amount of premiums is a nonnegative stochastic process. Based on the obtained result, using the method of analysis for the tail probability of random sums, a similar result in a more complex and reasonable compound risk model is also obtained, where individual claim sizes are specialized to be extended negatively dependent and accident inter-arrival times are still widely lower orthant dependent, and both the claim sizes and the claim number have dominatedly varying tails.

Intellicise Model Transmission for Semantic Communication in Intelligence-Native 6G Networks

To facilitate emerging applications and demands of edge intelligence(EI)-empowered 6G networks,model-driven semantic communications have been proposed to reduce transmission volume by deploying artificial intelligence(AI)models that provide abilities of semantic extraction and recovery.Nevertheless,it is not feasible to preload all AI models on resource-constrained terminals.Thus,in-time model transmission becomes a crucial problem.This paper proposes an intellicise model transmission architecture to guarantee the reliable transmission of models for semantic communication.The mathematical relationship between model size and performance is formulated by employing a recognition error function supported with experimental data.We consider the characteristics of wireless channels and derive the closed-form expression of model transmission outage probability(MTOP)over the Rayleigh channel.Besides,we define the effective model accuracy(EMA)to evaluate the model transmission performance of both communication and intelligence.Then we propose a joint model selection and resource allocation(JMSRA)algorithm to maximize the average EMA of all users.Simulation results demonstrate that the average EMA of the JMSRA algorithm outperforms baseline algorithms by about 22%.

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Mathematical Wave Functions and 3D Finite Element Modelling of the Electron and Positron

The wave/particle duality of particles in Physics is well known. Particles have properties that uniquely characterize them from one another, such as mass, charge and spin. Charged particles have associated Electric and Magnetic fields. Also, every moving particle has a De Broglie wavelength determined by its mass and velocity. This paper shows that all of these properties of a particle can be derived from a single wave function equation for that particle. Wave functions for the Electron and the Positron are presented and principles are provided that can be used to calculate the wave functions of all the fundamental particles in Physics. Fundamental particles such as electrons and positrons are considered to be point particles in the Standard Model of Physics and are not considered to have a structure. This paper demonstrates that they do indeed have structure and that this structure extends into the space around the particle’s center (in fact, they have infinite extent), but with rapidly diminishing energy density with the distance from that center. The particles are formed from Electromagnetic standing waves, which are stable solutions to the Schrödinger and Classical wave equations. This stable structure therefore accounts for both the wave and particle nature of these particles. In fact, all of their properties such as mass, spin and electric charge, can be accounted for from this structure. These particle properties appear to originate from a single point at the center of the wave function structure, in the same sort of way that the Shell theorem of gravity causes the gravity of a body to appear to all originate from a central point. This paper represents the first two fully characterized fundamental particles, with a complete description of their structure and properties, built up from the underlying Electromagnetic waves that comprise these and all fundamental particles.

The Cox-Aalen Models as Framework for Construction of Bivariate Probability Distributions, Universal Representation

Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.

Parameter Estimations of the TFR Model Under Exponential Distribution at a Normal Stress

The TFR（Tampered Failure Rate） model was proposed by Bhattacharyya and Soejoeti（1989） for step-stress accelerated life tests, On step-stress completely accelerated test occasions, the paper gives a method of estimating parameters under a normal stress.