Analysis of rear-end risk for driver using vehicle trajectory data

To explore the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, on-road experiments were conducted for measuring the individual vehicle trajectory data associated with novice and experienced drivers. The rear-end crash potential probability based on the time to collision was proposed to represent the interpretation of rear-end crash risk.One-way analysis of variance was applied to compare the rearend crash risks for novice and experienced drivers. The rearend crash risk models for novice and experienced drivers were respectively developed to identify the effects of contributing factors on the driver rear-end crash risk. Also, the cumulative residual method was used to examine the goodness-of-fit of models. The results show that there is a significant difference in rear-end risk between the novice and experienced drivers.For the novice drivers, three risk factors including the traffic volume, the number of lanes and gender are found to significantly impact on the rear-end crash risk, while significant impact factors for experienced drivers are the vehicle speed and traffic volume. The rear-end crash risk models perform well based on the existing limited data samples.