For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capabilit...For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capability completely?Will the US resolve the issue with force?Can the DPRK collapse under maximum pressure?On the other hand,what could happen if Six-Party Talks resumed and the international community would“acquiesce”in a nuclear DPRK?Arguing the slippery slope that others in Northeast Asia will become nuclear is delusional:Japan and the ROK are unlikely to join the nuclear arms race.The most plausible next step is that the DPRK holds on to its hard-won nuclear capability,the international community acquiesces,and Six-Party Talks resume.It is an opportunity for China to play a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue and advancing Northeast Asian diplomacy.展开更多
The ⅩⅩⅢ Olympic Winter Games in South Korea lit a flame for the dramatic development of inter-Korean relations. Rapid changes in the geopolitical situation on the peninsula since the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang ...The ⅩⅩⅢ Olympic Winter Games in South Korea lit a flame for the dramatic development of inter-Korean relations. Rapid changes in the geopolitical situation on the peninsula since the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang have included high-level DPRK talks with South Korea, China and the United States. President Xi Jinping＇ s meetings with DPRK leader Kim Jong-un in Beijing and Dalian, and the upcoming Trump-Kim summit on June 12 are all about timing. A new diplomacy on DPRK＇ s part has unfolded out of the extemal pressure the DPRK experienced from the US, China and the international community but also out of the difficulties the DPRK faces in advancing its nuclear options. Unless the DPRK makes substantial concessions, the US will not alter policy. Real success means historic change, not only a reunion of families and an official end to the Korean War, but also a potential shift in the Asian power structure. There are diverse possibilities and much at stake. The fundamental way forward is restarting Six Party Talks and regional mechanism.展开更多
基金the phased result of a research project International Security Governance and New Type of International Relations (Project No. 3262016T01),sponsored by the University of International Relations
文摘For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capability completely?Will the US resolve the issue with force?Can the DPRK collapse under maximum pressure?On the other hand,what could happen if Six-Party Talks resumed and the international community would“acquiesce”in a nuclear DPRK?Arguing the slippery slope that others in Northeast Asia will become nuclear is delusional:Japan and the ROK are unlikely to join the nuclear arms race.The most plausible next step is that the DPRK holds on to its hard-won nuclear capability,the international community acquiesces,and Six-Party Talks resume.It is an opportunity for China to play a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue and advancing Northeast Asian diplomacy.
文摘The ⅩⅩⅢ Olympic Winter Games in South Korea lit a flame for the dramatic development of inter-Korean relations. Rapid changes in the geopolitical situation on the peninsula since the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang have included high-level DPRK talks with South Korea, China and the United States. President Xi Jinping＇ s meetings with DPRK leader Kim Jong-un in Beijing and Dalian, and the upcoming Trump-Kim summit on June 12 are all about timing. A new diplomacy on DPRK＇ s part has unfolded out of the extemal pressure the DPRK experienced from the US, China and the international community but also out of the difficulties the DPRK faces in advancing its nuclear options. Unless the DPRK makes substantial concessions, the US will not alter policy. Real success means historic change, not only a reunion of families and an official end to the Korean War, but also a potential shift in the Asian power structure. There are diverse possibilities and much at stake. The fundamental way forward is restarting Six Party Talks and regional mechanism.
