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Study of Multistage Project Risk Identification-Assessment Process Based on Objective Orientation
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作者 YANG Cai-xia, XU Yu (School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China) 《厦门大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第S1期242-243,共2页
Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objec... Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration. 展开更多
关键词 risk identification-assessment project objectiv e objective weight vector risk ranking
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